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How Xi Jinping will Save the World from Coronavirus
How Xi Jinping will Save the World from Coronavirus
In 1349, when Black Death was ravaging Europe, many of the day’s best and brightest banded together in pursuit of a common cure. They had little choice. Black Death was rapidly spreading across the continent. Nothing could stop it.
Boils were lanced with precision. Blood was let with vigor. But there was no escape from the plague’s instant death. It was efficient. It was relentless. People would go to bed at night perfectly healthy; by morning, they’d wake up perfectly dead.
Then, at the exact moment of maximum death and despair, flagellants came to the rescue. Processions marched to and fro, seeking relief through forcefully whipping themselves in public displays of self-mutilation. According to the History Channel:
“Some upper-class men joined processions of flagellants that traveled from town to town and engaged in public displays of penance and punishment: They would beat themselves and one another with heavy leather straps studded with sharp pieces of metal while the townspeople looked on.
“For 33 1/2 days, the flagellants repeated this ritual three times a day. Then they would move on to the next town and begin the process over again.”
This may seem strange, weird, and, quite frankly, a bit nuts. But something miraculous happened. The Black Death epidemic soon exhausted itself. The flagellants saved Europe from the mid-14th century onslaught of Black Death.
Or did they?
Probably Nothing, Possibly Everything
To be clear, flagellants had no influence on the eventual relenting of Black Death. Remember, correlation does not imply causation. Post hoc ergo propter hoc – “after this, therefore because of this” – or simply the post hoc fallacy, recognizes that just because one event happened to follow another, doesn’t mean the initial event caused the later event to occur.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
WHO Warns “Countries Should Prepare For Local Outbreaks” As Pentagon Increases Quarantine Housing
WHO Warns “Countries Should Prepare For Local Outbreaks” As Pentagon Increases Quarantine Housing
Summary:
- 14,550 confirmed cases worldwide, 19,544 suspected cases, 304 deaths, 2,110 in serious/critical condition, 328 in China treated and released; 138,000 under observation
- First death outside China recorded in the Philippines
- 24 countries reporting cases
- Philippines, New Zealand join list of countries several restricting travelers from China
* * *
Local officials in Hubei weren’t kidding when they warned that Saturday would be the worst day so far for confirmed cases/deaths related to the coronavirus outbreak. China’s body count climbed above 300, and the first death outside the mainland was recorded in the Philippines.Scientists predict that exponentially more cases are active in China, but the true number either haven’t yet been diagnosed, or the Chinese government is simply suppressing it for obvious PR purposes. Anecdotal reports also claim the death toll is higher than the 304+.
Even though the man who died in Manila was from Wuhan, now that the virus has proved lethal outside the confines of China’s deeply overburdened health-care system, even more countries have decided to defy the WHO and restrict entry for travelers from China. New Zealand, Iraq, Indonesia and the Philippines have joined the growing list of countries – including the US, Japan, Australia, Canada, Taiwan, etc. – who are imposing travel restrictions on people who have either recently been to China, or recently traveled to Hubei Province (or if they have a passport from Hubei).
“This is the first reported death outside China,” Rabindra Abeyasinghe, the World Health Organisation representative to the Philippines, said.
But that wasn’t all we heard from the WHO on Sunday. The organization, which just declared the outbreak a dangerous global pandemic, warned governments around the world to prepare for controlling domestic outbreaks.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Mayor Of City With 6 Million People Next To Wuhan Warns Of “Significant Increase” In Coronavirus Cases This Weekend
Mayor Of City With 6 Million People Next To Wuhan Warns Of “Significant Increase” In Coronavirus Cases This Weekend
One month into the worst viral pandemic in decades, China appears woefully unprepared to respond appropriately and decisively to a disease that has infected over 12,000 around the globe. This became obvious after several Chinese officials recently had media interview mishaps, in which their lack of knowledge about measures to contain the coronavirus were on full display, The Epoch Times reported.
On Jan. 29, the Beijing government sent a working team to Huanggang, a city with over 6.3 million people located just 30 miles east of the coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan in the Hubei province.
The team held a meeting with Tang Zhihong, chief of the city’s health commission, and Chen Mingxing, director of the city’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) accompanied the working team and recorded the meeting. When prompted with questions by the experts from Beijing, Tang couldn’t answer.
In the CCTV video, the Beijing experts asked the current capacity of hospitals in the city. Tang kept silent. When pressed again, Tang answered: “We have an official who is in charge of this issue.”
The experts asked what was the current number of confirmed cases in Huanggang. Tang first said it was “more than 200,” but Chen chimed in and said: “118.”
It quickly went downhill from there: the team also asked, “How many patients are being treated in the hospitals?” Both Tang and Chen didn’t answer. This angered Chinese netizens, who commented on the news segment on social media.
The next day, the Huanggang government announced that Tang has been dismissed from her position.
Then, in response to the rising wave of public outrage, on January 30 the Huanggang government announced new lockdown measures.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Suspected Case Of Coronavirus Discovered In New York As Death Toll Nears 300
Suspected Case Of Coronavirus Discovered In New York As Death Toll Nears 300
Summary:
- Death toll jumps to 294, 13,983 cases reported
- Suspected case being tested in New York City
- 8th US case confirmed in Massachusetts
- Vietnam, Japan, Australia limit travel to China
- Hong Kong health-care workers threaten to strike unless border to mainland closed
* * *
Update (1900ET): Death toll jumps to 294 as China reports 1,921 new infections, bringing the new global total to 13,983, according to Johns Hopkins CSSE.
Here’s a map of known cases:
* * *
Update (1645ET): The New York Times reports that NYC has yet another suspected case of the coronavirus. This is at least the third report of a suspected coronavirus patient in NYC or New Jersey.
The scares have made the sight of people wearing masks more common throughout the Five Boroughs.
The suspected patient is in their 40s and recently returned from China suffering from telltale symptoms including fever, cough and shortness of breath.
The suspected virus carrier is undergoing testing at Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan.
- NEW YORK CITY HEALTH DEPARTMENT TESTING PATIENT FOR CORONAVIRUS
- NYC HEALTH OFFICIALS SUSPECT A PATIENT HAS CORONAVIRUS: NYT
- NYC OFFICIALS AWAITING CONFIRMATION FROM FEDERAL AGENCY: NYT
- SUSPECTED NYC CORONAVIRUS PATIENT IS AT BELLEVUE HOSPITAL: NYT
City health officials have been bracing for a case given NYC’s large population of Chinese immigrants.
“An individual with a travel history to China felt unwell and sought help from a medical provider who promptly contacted the Health Department,” said the health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot.
NYC has already struggled with outbreaks recently, including an outbreak of measles in the ultra-orthodox Jewish community.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Outraged As World Cancels Flights And Shuts Borders Amid Coronavirus Outbreak
China Outraged As World Cancels Flights And Shuts Borders Amid Coronavirus Outbreak
Countries that surround China have closed their border crossings and halted trade this week, air carriers across the world have also suspended flights to and from the country because of the novel coronavirus outbreak. Beijing has responded with outrage, by saying the measures enacted by the global community to limit the spread of the deadly virus goes way beyond standards accepted worldwide, reported R.T. News.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Saturday that “we have adopted the most comprehensive and strictest prevention and control measures, and many of them go far beyond the requirements of the International Health Regulation.”
“China’s efforts are [aimed at] not only protecting the health of its own people but also safeguarding the health of people worldwide. Governments and the World Health Organization (WHO) have given full recognition to this,” Wang said.
The minister also said that Beijing “does not agree with the approach adopted by individual countries to create tension or even panic” by closing borders, trade, and flights to and from China.
He pointed out that the WHO “did not approve of travel or trade restrictions on China.”
For anyone who didn’t listen to officials at Thursday’s emergency conference, it sounded like they were reading a script from Beijing, with consistent praises of the Chinese regime for their efforts in “containing” coronavirus.
WHO officials during the meeting also emphasized that global flights, borders, and trade must remain open with China, again it sounds like these officials were widely pressured by Beijing to keep the global economy open for business despite the known fact of a deadly virus outbreak.
Second Chinese City Bars Residents From Leaving Their Homes, Apple Closes All Offices & Stores In China
Second Chinese City Bars Residents From Leaving Their Homes, Apple Closes All Offices & Stores In China
Since our last update Friday evening, the situation on the ground in China has reportedly gone from bad to worse. The true extent of Beijing’s ‘quarantine’ has been exposed – and not just the ridiculously oppressive tactics exercised on sick people simply out trying to buy food so they don’t starve, but the even more bizarre notion that the WHO has decided to try and validate Beijing’s response when all evidence suggests that public relations is and always will be Beijing’s No. 1 concern.
By most recent count, total cases have eclipsed 12,000, while confirmed deaths inside China have hit 259. More than 100,000 people are still under observation, as we reported last night. The 46 new deaths announced last night (Saturday morning in China) was the largest daily death toll (that was the total from Friday) since the start of the crisis.
To that end, a report reportedly signed by hundreds of doctors blaming the Communist Party’s leadership for waiting a month to inform the Chinese public and the international community that the virus could spread from human-to-human contact. The leadership was apparently aware of this fact as early as mid-December, yet they actively concealed it until the situation started getting out of hand and cases were being confirmed in neighboring countries.
China’s finance ministry has finally announced that it’s going to lift import taxes on American-made medical products needed to help combat the outbreak (it’s interesting how it took them nearly – checks notes – two months since the start of the outbreak to lift the trade-war tariffs).
ABC News is the latest American media outlet to collect footage from Wuhan via drone. The haunting footage clearly shows the scope of the lockdown. An entire city as big as New York, with almost nobody outside or in the streets.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Watch: How China Is Enforcing The Corona Quarantine By Drone
Watch: How China Is Enforcing The Corona Quarantine By Drone
China has found new ways to respond to coronavirus that has shut down at least two-thirds of its economy, taken offline some of the world’s largest manufacturing hubs, and quarantined more than 50 million people.
The country is using drones, specifically DJI drones with front-mounted speakers, to fly around towns and yell at anyone who isn’t wearing a mask.
It’s like something from a dystopian film, but essential to critical quarantine enforcement.
With confirmed cases around 10,000 in China, about 213 deaths, and tens of thousands of people with suspected coronavirus, the communist government is deploying technology to beat the “devil virus.”
“Staying at home is contributing to society,” a government official tells people in this video posted by Global Times, which slows a DJI drone with a front-mounted speaker flying around a rural countryside and urban areas yelling at anyone not wearing a virus mask.
Walking around without a protective face mask? Well, you can’t avoid these sharp-tongued drones! Many village and cities in China are using drones equipped with speakers to patrol during the #coronavirus outbreak.
Gizchina.com reports that some Chinese towns are deploying agriculture drones with 5-gallon sprayers to spray disinfectant, with hopes that the virus could be eliminated.
UK researchers now suggest 75,800 people are infected in Wuhan, as compared to SARS, the infection rate of coronavirus is exceptionally high. China is using advanced technology to fight a virus that could wind up collapsing its economy.
“They All Knew!” – Chinese Furious At Virus-Fighting Officials Who Lied About Human Transmission
“They All Knew!” – Chinese Furious At Virus-Fighting Officials Who Lied About Human Transmission
They lied, and 200+ died.
For reasons that haven’t been shared with the public, the WHO has chosen to lavish praise on Beijing, insisting that travel to China isn’t dangerous even as more governments impose restrictions, and claiming that Beijing has been completely transparent and a ‘model’ for how countries should handle outbreaks like this.
When pressed by a reporter, Dr. Tedros, the director general of the WHO, replied that local authorities in Wuhan had been “very transparent” with the Chinese people by publishing up-to-date notices about new cases and deaths. First of all, many suspect that Beijing hasn’t been entirely truthful as far as these tallies are concerned.
Second, it’s not so much about what Beijing told the Chinese people. Everybody knows the government censors anything that might reflect badly upon the Communist Party. So to claim that the government has been completely transparent with the people is almost disingenuous. Of course that’s not true. But the real issue is what they did and didn’t tell the international news media, and their international partners.
Now, a new study has exposed the Communist Party’s lies.
The research has once again moved back the timeline of when senior Chinese leaders knew about the outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that they waited longer to act, and longer to inform the international community, than they had led the world to believe. The claim appeared in a top American medical journal.
From Nikkei Asian Review:
The deadly new coronavirus from Wuhan was spreading from person to person as early as mid-December, weeks before China officially confirmed such transmission, government-funded Chinese researchers report in a top American medical journal.
The paper in the New England Journal of Medicine analyzes data on the first 425 confirmed cases in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak originated.
Coronavirus and the world economy
Coronavirus and the world economy
The outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in China has shaken the global asset markets—and with good reason. The coronavirus has the potential of being the ‘trigger’ which will push the world into a global depression.
Here, we briefly explain why.
The outbreak
It looks that the virus spreads very easily, through droplet infection and with a “latency” period that allows infected people to spread the virus before they themselves exhibit symptoms. This implies that the virus has already spread much more widely than original estimates indicate. The individual cases popping up across the globe are one confirmation of this.
Fortunately, the fatality rate is still relatively low: under 2 percent. However, this can change, especially if the virus mutates, and there’s already speculation, whether the figures provided by China can be trusted.
China in trouble
As we have been warning through 2019 (see, e.g., this and this), China’s economy is ripe for a serious downturn. Beijing used most of its remaining firepower last year, when it desperately tried to postpone the inevitable recession, probably to appear strong in the trade negotiations.
Despite record-breaking stimulus enacted in 2019, the Chinese economy has grown at a sub-par rate of around six percent. And this is according to the official statistics! In reality, the actual Chinese growth rate has probably been much lower.
As China’s State-Owned Enterprises, or “SOEs”, have become riddled with debt, their ability to increase production has stagnated. This has also contributed to the broader stagnation of productivity growth in China (see Figure 1). After the growth of SOEs faltered in 2017, the Chinese consumer has become an important driver of the economy.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“SARS” Versus “Wuhan”: The Difference Between “Now & Then”
“SARS” Versus “Wuhan”: The Difference Between “Now & Then”
A week dominated by headlines of a spreading respiratory virus has had investors recalling pandemics past, from SARS in 2003 to the Ebola scare six years ago. While the “Wuhan” virus, or known scientifically as “nCoV,” is still in its infancy, it is closely tracking both the infection and, unfortunately, death rates of the SARS virus.
However, the question everyone wants an answer to is: “what does the virus mean for the markets?”
Will it derail the longest bull market in U.S. history? Or, is it nothing to worry about?
If you read the mainstream media, the answer seems to be the latter. To wit:
“However, gauged by the market’s performance during the onset of other infectious diseases, including SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, Ebola and avian flu, Wall Street investors may have little to fear that this disease will sicken a U.S. stock market that finished 2019 with the best annual return in years and has kicked off 2020 at or near all-time highs.” – MarketWatch
With the stock market perched near all-time highs, it is understandable investors are quick to dismiss the potential ramifications of the virus very quickly. There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence to support the bullish claims as well. The chart below is the S&P 500 index versus its exponential growth trend with a history of the more important viral outbreaks notated.
Throughout history, markets have always seemed to bounce back from deadly viral outbreaks. However, long-term charts tend to obfuscate the damage done to investors who have a much shorter investment time horizon.
Currently, the more prominent comparison is how the market performed following the “SARS” outbreak in 2003, as it also was a member of the “corona virus” family.
Clearly, if you just remained invested, there was a quick recovery from the market impact, and the bull market resumed.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Children With “Stealth” Coronavirus Infections Raise Fears Of ‘Community Outbreaks’
Children With “Stealth” Coronavirus Infections Raise Fears Of ‘Community Outbreaks’
Over the past week, as China has shared data about the novel coronavirus with foreign partners who quickly mapped its genome as the world races to develop a vaccine for the virus which can develop into a potentially deadly case of pneumonia. But several experts, including the drug company Novartis, warned that developing a vaccine might take a year.
In the meantime, epidemiologists are still struggling to understand the mysterious new virus (a virus that some fear was once studied as a potential biological weapon). So far, researchers have determined that the average incubation period for the virus is between five and six days. But as more cases are confirmed, researchers are finding a surprisingly large number of young people and children infected with the virus who display few or no symptoms – yet they’re still contagious.
Bloomberg shared the story of a 10-year-old boy from Wuhan whose entire family including his grandparents fell ill. Yet he displayed no symptoms, and wasn’t tested for the virus until both his parents insisted.
The boy’s case was first made public by the Lancet medical journal, which received attention from the international press after publishing research on the outbreak last week. Only five members of the family, including the boy, were infected during a trip to Wuhan. They infected a sixth relative after returning to their unnamed hometown.
A professor of microbiology who spoke with Bloomberg said the case of the 10-year-old boy is extremely concerning because it suggests that many of those infected with the virus might be able to evade typical screening techniques. This could easily fuel a community outbreak if the original case isn’t quickly discovered.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Will Coronavirus Be the Black Swan that Pops the Bubble of Everything in 2020?
Will Coronavirus Be the Black Swan that Pops the Bubble of Everything in 2020?
Will coronavirus be the Black Swan that brings down the global economy in 2020? In my article, “The Things We Believe That are Untrue”, I discussed how governments worldwide have been hiding recessionary numbers from global citizens since 2008. Consequently, with the world economy already so weak, if coronavirus causes substantially slower economic growth rates, it could serve as the pin that finally pops the unsustainable Bubble of Everything.
So what is the coronavirus, and is the media concern surrounding it justified? A coronavirus is a type of normally mild virus that causes non-lethal respiratory viruses, but sometimes can be lethal, as has been the case with the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China. The particular trait that makes coronavirus especially sinister, however, is that, unlike its previous siblings of SARS and MERS, the Wuhan coronavirus is contagious during its asymptomatic incubation period of one to fourteen days, and therefore, can be transmitted from carriers that appear to be healthy although they already have been infected. Consequently, because its method of transmission is so stealth, it is truly difficult to assess how many people have been infected, even though media reports put the number at 2,000 to 4,000 with 100 dead thus far.
Since the transmission rate has been estimated at 2.5 people for every infected person, and the asymptomatic incubation period is up to two weeks, with 2,000 to 4,000 symptomatic people reported, realistically, tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of people could potentially be already infected, depending upon the rate of transmission from infected to non-infected. Furthermore, with many Chinese traveling outside of China for the long Lunar New Year holiday, there really is no way to estimate, at the current time, how many others outside of China have been infected with the Wuhan coronavirus.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China?
Could the Coronavirus Epidemic Be the Tipping Point in the Supply Chain Leaving China?
Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects.
While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, the possible second-order effects receive little attention:
first order, every action has a consequence. Second order, every consequence has its own consequence.
So the media’s focus is the first-order consequences: the number of infected people and fatalities, government responses such as quarantines, and so on. The general expectation is these first-order consequences will dissipate shortly and life will return to its pre-epidemic status with virtually no significant changes.
Second-order effects caution: not so fast. Second-order consequences may play out for months or even years even if the epidemic ends as quickly as the consensus expects.
The under-appreciated dynamic here is the tipping point, the imprecise point at which a decision to make fundamental changes tips from “maybe” to “yes.
“These tipping points are often influenced by exhaustion or frustration. Take a small business that’s been hit with tax increases, additional fees, more regulatory compliance requirements, etc. When the next fee increase arrives, the onlooker might declare that the sum is relatively modest and the business owner can afford to pay it, but the onlooker is only considering first-order effects: the size of the fee and and the owner’s ability to pay it.
To the surprise of the onlooker focusing only on first-order effects, the second-order effect is the owner closes the business and moves away. Invisible to everyone focusing solely on first-order effects, the owner’s sense of powerlessness and weakening resolve to continue despite soaring costs and declining profits has slowly been moving up to a tipping point.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Many Planes Actually Made It Out Of Wuhan Yesterday And Today
Many Planes Actually Made It Out Of Wuhan Yesterday And Today
Update (1300ET): The Toronto Sun reports Coronavirus control at airports is pretty much a leap of faith.
Just like that, more than 1,000 people on three flights from China walked into Canada without medical screening.
If the coronavirus happens to be incubating in any one of those passengers who arrived at Pearson International Airport’s Terminal 3 on Monday, they are now mingling with Canadian residents.
Apple ‘looking at how it handles borders’ after Crimea map controversy
“I was asked when we got to the Canada Custom’s inspection point if I had been in Wuhan in the past 14 days or if I had a fever,” said Jerry, who with his wife, travelled from Shanghai.
“I said no.”
That one-word answer got him through.
* * *
As MishTalk’s Mike Shedlock detailed earlier, many planes managed to get out of Wuhan over the past few days. Let’s take a look as to where.
Wuhan to San Francisco Today
Wuhan to San Francisco 00:00-06:00 – No Flights
Wuhan to San Francisco 06:00-12:00 – No Flights
Wuhan to San Francisco 12:00-18:00 – Three Flights to San Francisco (China South, American, Delta) are listed as “Scheduled“.
Wuhan to San Francisco 18:00-00:00 – No Flights
The huge problem with Flightstats is you have to click on every flight to see if it is scheduled, cancelled, unknown, landed, or in the air. There are thousands of flights per day from some Chinese cities.
I do not believe those SFO scheduled flight left or ever will. See Addendum.
All Departures from Wuhan Monday, January 27
I pieced that together from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport WUH Departures for 2020-01-27.
I only showed confirmed landings.
All Departures from Wuhan Tuesday, January 28
White House Weighing Complete Shutdown Of Passenger Plane Traffic From China
White House Weighing Complete Shutdown Of Passenger Plane Traffic From China
Summary:
- Japan, Germany confirm human-to-human transmission
- US, UK warn citizens to avoid all non-essential travel to China
- 5,571 cases confirmed; 131 deaths
- President Xi said China is taking the “devil virus” very seriously and will contain it
- Governors and mayors across US bracing for viral outbreaks
- Reports that China has refused US offer of assistance, and that Beijing is withholding data from CDC
- Thailand reports 6 new cases, bringing total number to 14
* * *
Update (1824ET): Adding additional pressure to American airlines, CNBC just reported that the White House warned airline executives that it’s considering suspending all flights between China and the US.
This comes on the heels of United Airlines, the US carrier with the most exposure to China, which has about a dozen daily flights to Hong Kong and the mainland, said it was cancelling dozens of flights. The Chicago-based airline said it has experienced a “significant decline in demand for travel to China.”
Administration officials warned that this could impact flights into and out of China.
Several countries, including the US, have been expanding airport screenings for possible virus-carrying travelers. But a complete shutdown of passenger plane traffic would be even more draconian than Hong Kong’s strict border controls implemented Tuesday.
* * *
Update (1750ET): Reuters just reported that Thailand has confirmed another six cases of the coronavirus, bringing the total to 14. All six are under observation in a hospital. Five of the six are members of the same CHinese family who traveled from Hubei provine to Thailand for the LNY holiday together.
No. 6 is also a Chinese tourist.
* * *
Update (1710ET): Minutes ago, as dawn nears in China, state-controlled TV station CCTV reported 25 new deaths in Hubei, and another 840 new confirmed cases (and this time only 315 were in Wuhan). Of the dead, 19 died in Wuhan, 2 in Xiaogan, and 1 each in Jingmen, Ezhou, Huanggang, and Tianmen.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
