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This text follows my recent keynote at Seoul Smart Mobility International Conference. The author thanks  Seoul Design Foundation and @Seoul_gov for their invitation. I also thank XuanZheng Wang, professor, China Central Academy of Fine Arts (CAFA), for alerting me to the @Mobike developments.

Two hundred people per second now climb onto a dockless bike somewhere in China; the blue dots (above) denote transactions in Shanghai.

Considering that dockless bike sharing platforms were only launched two years ago, in 2015, this growth rate is remarkable.

The biggest company, Mobike, already operates more than seven million bikes across over 160 cities globally – and a merger with its biggest rival, Ofo, is in the offing.

For its US launch Mobike (above) has teamed up with AT&T for its networks. Qualcomm will make the GPS-enabled smart tags attached to each bike. And iPhone maker Foxconn will manufacture the actual bikes.

 
Negative side effects have accompanied this explosive growth, of course; entrances to subway stations, for example, have been blocked by piles of carelessly dumped bikes (above) .

Beijing and Shanghai have banned the addition of more bikes until their users learn, or are compelled, to use designated parking areas. Wayward user behaviour may well be just a blip; penalties (and inventives) cxan easily be added to dockless bike software.

When sharing platforms enable new relationships between people, goods, equipment, and spaces, the notion of mobility as a discrete economic sector no longer makes sense.

News that Ikea is buying Task Rabbit is further confirmation of this convergence

The bigger story now unfolding (above) seems to be one of system transformation – a peak-car tipping point – that’s been slowly ‘brewing’ for a very long time.

(I don’t believe the concept of “Personal Era” is a timely one – but I’ll come to that in my next post).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Just How Big Is The Oil Market?

September 18, 2017

Just How Big Is The Oil Market?

Big Oil

The Oil Market Is Bigger Than All Metal Markets Combined

Ever since the invention of the internal combustion engine, oil has been one of the most crucial commodities on Earth. Without it, modern transportation as we know it would not be possible. Industries such as aviation, aerospace, automobiles, shipping, and the military would look nothing like they do today.

Of course, as we now know, this has all come with some extreme drawbacks from an environmental perspective. And while new green technology and the lithium revolution will aid in eventually reducing the role of oil in transportation, the fact is we still use 94 million barrels per day of crude worldwide.

As a result, the energy industry continues to have huge amounts of influence on our lives. Special interest groups with a focus on energy have influence on a domestic level. Meanwhile, from a foreign policy angle, countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia wield additional geopolitical and economic power because of their natural resources. It’s even arguable that everything from the Gulf War to the more recent Middle East interventions in Libya, Syria, and Iraq have been at least partially to do with oil.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Natural gas is a stupid transportation fuel

September 24, 2016

Natural gas is a stupid transportation fuel

[ My comment: The only reason natural gas has come up as a transportation fuel at all is the false belief that there is 100 years of natural gas (even this article does, but natural gas may last far less for reasons explained in articles here).

Although this article focuses on cars, the same critique applies to heavy-duty trucks as well, which need even bigger, heavier tanks.

Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity]

Service, R. F. October 31, 2014. Stepping on the gas. Science Vol. 346, Issue 6209, pp. 538-541

At a conference on natural gas-powered vehicles Dane Boysen, head of a natural gas vehicle research program at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, said what industry stalwarts don’t want to hear:

“Honestly, natural gas is not that great of a transportation fuel.” In fact, he adds, “it’s a stupid fuel.”

This is because of the low energy density of natural gas. A liter of gasoline will propel a typical car more than 10,000 meters down the road; a liter of natural gas just 13 meters. Even when natural gas is chilled or jammed into a high-pressure tank—at a high cost of both energy and money—it still can’t match gasoline’s range.

Nevertheless, Boysen’s ARPAE project, called Methane Opportunities for Vehicular Energy (MOVE), is in the middle of spending $30 million over 5 years to jump-start the development of natural gas-powered cars and light-duty trucks which now burn over 60% of oil used in transportation.

But as Stephen Yborra, who directs market development for NGVAmerica, puts it, “there are an awful lot of hurdles to overcome.” Honda, for example, already makes a natural gas version of its Civic sedan.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate change impacts on transportation 2008 U.S. Senate hearing

May 16, 2016

Climate change impacts on transportation 2008 U.S. Senate hearing

Senate 110-1199. June 24, 2008. Climate change impacts on the transportation sector. U.S. Senate Hearing.

Excerpts from this 135 page document follow.

DANIEL K. INOUYE, U.S. SENATOR FROM HAWAII

The transportation sector is a major indicator of the overall economic health of our Nation. Given that fact, it is important to recognize that climate affects the design, construction, safety and operations, and maintenance of transportation infrastructure and systems. For example, as we will hear today, predicted increases in precipitation and frequency of storms will impact our transportation systems; recent flooding in the Midwest resulted in submerged highways and railroad bridges, and significant diversion of freight traffic. In addition, severe storms have caused major airport delays around the country. While there is a need for the transportation sector to adapt to the environmental changes brought on by global climate change, it is also widely recognized that the transportation sector has contributed to the causes of climate change. (1) Transportation sources account for approximately one-third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

Dr Thomas C. Peterson, Climate Services Division, National Climatic Data Center, National Environmental Satellite, Data & Information Service, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce

I am an author of a National Research Council (NRC) commissioned paper released this past March on Climate Variability and Change with Implications for Transportation, along with other colleagues from NOAA and the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. My testimony will draw from the NRC paper as well as from 3 other timely reports of which I am an author of the report on climate extremes: The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation by the NRC Transportation Research Board (TRB) which was released March 11, 2008.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Unpave low traffic roads to save energy and money

April 13, 2016

Unpave low traffic roads to save energy and money

The U.S. has 4.1 million miles of roads (1.9 million paved, 2.2 million gravel). About 3 million miles of roads have less than 2,000 vehicles a day, less than 15% of all traffic. The paved portion of these low-volume roads ought to be evaluated for their potential to be unpaved.

Many of these roads should have never been paved to begin with, but the costs of construction, asphalt, and energy were so cheap it was done anyway. Now many rural roads are past their design life and rapidly deteriorating. It is both difficult and expensive to maintain them, and dangerous to let these roads fall apart and degrade into gravel on their own.

Examples of road safety effects caused by failing asphalt roads. The failures force traffic to travel outside of the lane and disrupt traffic movement.

Unpaving low-volume roads saves energy and money. According to Karim Ahmed Abdel-Warith at Purdue University, preserving low-volume roads costs several hundred million dollars a year, more than half of the annual investment in roads.

Unpaving would also slow vehicle speeds down, further increasing miles per gallon from less aerodynamic drag.

Since roads harm biodiversity, getting rid of a road entirely should be done when possible.

The NRC paper I’ve taken excerpts from below requested feedback from the 27 states that have already depaved roads. This report provides many helpful guidance documents on depaving roads for communities interested in pursuing this.

NOTE: I’ve also added notes from another document below: The Promise of Rural Roads. Review of the Role of Low-Volume Roads in Rural Connectivity, Poverty Reduction, Crisis Management, and Livability

NRC. 2015. Converting paved roads to unpaved roads. National Research Council, National Academies Press. 97 pages

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We Need to Electrify As Much Transportation As We Can”

April 4, 2016

“We Need to Electrify As Much Transportation As We Can”

Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute, says a truly green transportation system would stop relying on cars and discusses the Tesla Model 3 as a mass-market electric vehicle

Transcript

JESSICA DESVARIEUX, PRODUCER, TRNN: Welcome to the Real News Network. I’m Jessica Desvarieux in Baltimore.Folks are lining up to reserve electric car automaker Tesla’s Model 3. It’s considered to be one of the first electric cars for the mass market at an expected price tag of 35 thousand dollars. Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, will be unveiling the vehicle on Thursday evening, so we can’t show you what it will actually look like. But in this segment we wanted to get beyond the consumerism and ask, will this be a game changer for the automobile industry in America and the environment?Now joining us to help us answer that question is Richard Heinberg. He’s a senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute. Thanks so much for joining us, Richard.

RICHARD HEINBERG: It’s a pleasure, Jessica.

DESVARIEUX: So, Richard, why has it taken so long for an affordable electric car to sort of come to the market? I’m reminded of the 2006 documentary “Who Killed the Electric Car?” which really highlights how we essentially went from having electric cars on California roads in the ’90s to then, eventually, shredding and destroying those very same vehicles years later. So my question to you, Richard, is, who killed the electric car?

HEINBERG: Well, the bosses at the Detroit automakers decided back in the 1990s that there wouldn’t be a mass market for the electric car because of the short range of the vehicles. They thought consumers wouldn’t buy a car if it didn’t have a two to three hundred mile range, and the batteries at that time were not capable of delivering that kind of range.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When Trucks Stop Running, So Does Civilization. Energy and the Future of Transportation.

January 19, 2016

When Trucks Stop Running, So Does Civilization. Energy and the Future of Transportation.

Also see: When Trucks Stop Running: Table of Contents, Preface, References

Virtually everything in our homes, everything in our stores, got there on a truck. Prior to that, 90 percent of those items were transported on a ship and/or a train. If trucks, trains, and ships stopped running, our global economy and way of life would stop too.

The impact of peak oil on commercial transportation has been of great interest to me after a 22-year career at American President Lines, where I developed computer systems to keep cargo seamlessly moving around the globe and just-in-time between ships, rail, trucks, and customers.

So I was thrilled when Charles Hall invited me to write a book on energy and transportation for his Springer Energy series, a book that has just been published: When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation.

Ships, trucks, and trains are the backbone of civilization, hauling the goods that fulfill our every need and desire. Their powerful, highly-efficient diesel combustion engines are exquisitely fine-tuned to burn petroleum-based diesel fuel. These engines and the fuels that fire them have been among the most transformative yet disruptive technologies on the planet. This is a dependency we take for granted.

Since oil reserves are finite, one day supplies will be diminished to where the cost of moving freight and goods with our present oil-fueled fleet will not pencil out. We have an oil glut in 2016 and a corresponding lack of urgency. Yet, inevitably the day will come when oil supplies decline. What will we do? What are our options? That is the sobering reality my book explores.

Consider just how dependent we are on abundant and affordable oil, which fuels commercial transportation: Grocery stores, service stations, hospitals, pharmacies, restaurants, construction sites, manufacturers, and many other businesses receive several deliveries a day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Everyone Is Doing It”: How Carmakers Manipulate Emissions Test Results

October 3, 2015

“Everyone Is Doing It”: How Carmakers Manipulate Emissions Test Results

With Germany’s largest company by revenue, Volkswagen, deep in damage recovery mode, and the market still unable to decide just how systemic and profound the fallout will be from the emissions scandal which has already cost the job of VW’s CEO and which according to some will impact the GDP of Hungary and the Czech republic as much as -1.5%, many are still trying to determine not if but how many other companies – whether “clean diesel” focused or otherwise – will be impacted by the crackdown on emissions fraud.

We don’t know the answer suffice to speculate that it will be “many” for one simpler reason: there are dozens of ways to manipulate emissions tests in both the lab and on the road, and with the temptation to “reduce” emissions all too great for management teams laser-focused on boosting profit margins, one can be certain that in this particular case not only is there more than one cockroach, there are dozens.

The chart below from Transport and Environment shows some of the traditional ways in which carmakers manipulate CO2 emissions tests to make their cars appear more efficient:

Worse, according to a follow-up report, it is only a matter of time before far more widespread crackdowns take place within the auto industry where emissions fraud now appears as systemic as that of the global banking sector.

As reported earlier this week, the gap between official test results for CO2 emissions/fuel economy and real-world performance has increased to 40% on average in 2014 from 8% in 2001, according to T&E’s 2015 Mind the Gap report, which analyses on-the-road fuel consumption by motorists and highlights the abuses by carmakers of the current tests and the failure of EU regulators to close loopholes. T&E said the gap has become a chasm and, without action, will likely grow to 50% on average by 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Eat Less Meat to Save Ourselves.

September 6, 2015

Eat Less Meat to Save Ourselves.

A report has been released by the U.N., in which it is urged that we reduce consumption of meat and dairy products as a means to mitigate climate change, hunger and fuel poverty It is stressed that food, transportation and housing must be made more sustainable if we seriously intend to ameliorate biodiversity loss and climate change, and as a matter of urgency. Some 30% of global CO2 emissions is a result of internationally traded goods, while the mining sector uses 7% of the world’s energy: a fraction that is expected to increase in line with “growth”, which has serious connotations regarding international policy. A doubling of income is predicted to cause an 81% increase in CO2 emissions, which is an alarming prospect in the context of the rising population, predicted to be over 9 billion by 2050. 70% of all the world’s freshwater consumption is taken by agriculture, which also accounts for 38% of the total use of land, and 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It has been estimated that it will be necessary to increase food production by 70% in 2050 if the population of the world is to be fed, but its expected increase from 7.3 billion now to perhaps 9.6 billion in 2050 will overwhelm any efficiency gains in agriculture. The production of animal products is particularly demanding in terms of land for grazing animals, and water, and a rising global middle class which is increasingly meat-hungry.

The above 70% increase in food production assumes that the western diet will spread to the Global South, with no reduction in consumption by the northern nations. 30-40% of cereals are presently fed to animals, which could rise to 50% if levels of meat and dairy consumption increase as predicted. It has been reckonedthat 3.5 billion additional people could be fed if all cereals were given over for human consumption.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are Gas Shortages Coming to America?

September 5, 2015

Are Gas Shortages Coming to America?

Gas shortages could be coming to America…and quickly.

An unexpected fuel crisis has hit Canada. According to a Canadian blogger andauthor, not one, but two, fuel tankers were inexplicably delayed last week, and shortages ensued alarmingly quickly, with numerous gas stations running completely out of fuel within a matter of days. Marie Beausoleil wrote:

The delay was long enough that gas stations across Nova Scotia ran out of gas, even with a week of rationing. The gas stations knew the tankers were going to be late and starting rationing in advance.

By Thursday, storage tanks in the city of Dartmouth were empty.

The tankers arrived on Friday and started the process of unloading.

By Saturday the shortage had spread to the smaller communities, the less busy gas stations.

By Sunday evening, motorists across the province were stranded and “Out of gas” signs were everywhere. It would take, people were warned, at least a week to get all service stations filled across the province (and if you’re not familiar with it, Nova Scotia is a very small place!) (Check out the rest of the article HERE)

If you couple a potential fuel shortage with the dramatic instability of the US stock market, it sure doesn’t paint a sunny forecast for the American economy.

A major fuel shortage could send epic economic shockwaves across the country, since our economy is based on cheap oil.

It all boils down to this: the transportation system.

If we can’t transport goods, businesses will have nothing to sell.
If businesses have nothing to sell, they can’t keep their staff employed.
If people have no work, they have no money.
If a few items are available, they will be outrageously expensive and not many folks will be able to afford the goods.
If you DO have money, you still have very little to buy.

Lots of people like to shake their heads and say, “Oh, this won’t hurt me at all.” That’s pretty shortsighted, because a fuel shortage will affect EVERYONE. CDL Life News recently published this alarming infographic.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)

January 3, 2015

Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1).

Contents:

(1) Epping – Chatswood tunnel conversion works proposed
(2)   Removal of tracks at Epping and Chatswood
(3)   Operational flexibility reduced
(4)   Removal of signalling

What can the world learn from Sydney’s future “Infrastructure Hub” established by G20 leaders in Brisbane in November 2014 and promoted in big hype by Australia’s Prime Minister Abbott who wants to become known as “Infrastructure Prime Minister”? Well, read this bizarre story:

How to disable and remove existing rail infrastructure

In year 10 of peaking oil production outside the US and Canada and while dropping oil prices indicate that the so-called US shale revolution is too expensive for the world economy, the NSW government has embarked on a risky, expensive rail project, the 23 km long North-West Rail Link (NWRL), including a 15.5 km long tunnel. In principle, rail is one of the solutions to the problem of peak oil, but not in the way it is done here.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How to Start a Bike Kitchen – Shareable

November 19, 2014

How to Start a Bike Kitchen – Shareable.

A bike kitchen is a place for people to repair their bikes, learn safe cycling, make bicycling more accessible, build community, and support sustainable transportation by getting more people on bikes. Most bike kitchens have tools, parts, mechanics, and a community of knowledgeable cyclists.

Around the world there are thousands of bike kitchens — also known as bike churches, bike collectives and bike coops — and more popping up all the time (see maps here). For those interested in starting a bike kitchen in your town, we’ve rounded up the essentials of getting started, from finding the right space and volunteers, to raising money, getting the word out, defining community guidelines, and creating a space that is accessible and welcoming to all.

Find the Right Space

First things first, your bike kitchen needs a home. It doesn’t have to be fancy and it doesn’t have to be huge, but you’ll need enough space for some essential tools and people to be able to comfortably work on their bikes. Depending on the kitchen’s offerings, you may need space to store bike frames, spare parts, and ready-to-go bikes, but this is not necessary, especially when you’re getting started.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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