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Tag Archives: trade
Twenty Questions that Will Make you Rethink Trade
Twenty Questions that Will Make you Rethink Trade We live in the age of trade. Trade, supported by an infrastructure of criss-crossing cargo ships, mega-ports, and an endless armada of trains and trucks plying the railways and highways, has become the foundation of the modern global economy. (And let’s not even talk about the virtual […]
Best Laid Schemes
Best Laid Schemes A Really Neat Bridge But, Mousie, thou art no thy-lane,In proving foresight may be vain;The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ menGang aft agley,An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,For promis’d joy! – Robert Burns, To a Mouse, on Turning Her Up in Her Nest With the Plough (in extract), 1785 Installation of the […]
“These Numbers Are Ugly” – WTO Forecasts Collapse In World Trade, Recovery For 2021
“These Numbers Are Ugly” – WTO Forecasts Collapse In World Trade, Recovery For 2021 The World Trade Organization (WTO) published a new report on Wednesday that is truly apocalyptic, and crushes all hopes that a V-shaped recovery would be seen this year (similar to what Morgan Stanley said last week): “World trade is expected to fall by between 13% and […]
“Ground Zero For Trade” – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China
“Ground Zero For Trade” – Port Of Long Beach Warns Of Shipping Slump From China Investors are grossly underestimating the potential economic impact of Covid-19 as the first signs of China’s supply chain meltdown are now washing ashore on US West Coast ports. The Port of Long Beach, the second-largest containerized port in the US, has had […]
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus Recently, a new coronavirus has been causing many illnesses and deaths. The virus first became active in Wuhan, China, but it has already spread to the rest of China. Scattered cases have been identified around the rest of the world as well. There are two important questions […]
Rabobank: “We’re Toast”
Rabobank: “We’re Toast” I have made this reference before, but looking at euphoric markets I am again reminded of comedian Caroline Aherne as fake TV chat-show host Mrs Merton asking glamorous blonde Debbie McGee of her very short, plain, hair-piece wearing husband: “So what attracted you to the millionaire Paul Daniels?” Indeed, “So what attracted you to […]
Trade Wars Just Getting Started
Trade Wars Just Getting Started Markets are eagerly awaiting the conclusion of the so-called “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China. Both parties are trying to reach a mini-deal involving simple tariff reductions and a truce on new tariffs along with Chinese purchases of pork and soybeans from the U.S. The likely success […]
The Phantom Mania
The Phantom Mania There’s nothing of substance underlying the current market melt-up Well, stocks are back at all-time highs. Ignited by the Fed’s “Not-QE” program and endless Trump administration teases of an “imminent” China deal, the S&P 500 has been propelled above its upward Bollinger band — a hyperextension only seen one other time since […]
World Trade Barometer Suggests Global Economy Continues To Plunge As Trade War Takes Toll
World Trade Barometer Suggests Global Economy Continues To Plunge As Trade War Takes Toll The World Trade Organization (WTO) published a new report Monday that warns global merchandise trade in goods will plunge through this quarter amid no resolution to the trade war, along with the continuation of a worldwide synchronized slowdown that shows no signs of […]
Global Supply Chains Imploding As Quarter Of German Firms Plan To Leave China
Global Supply Chains Imploding As Quarter Of German Firms Plan To Leave China The Bussiness Confidence Survey 2019/20 published by the German Chamber of Commerce in China, in cooperation with KPMG in Germany, finds that almost a quarter of German companies operating in China are preparing to relocate production facilities. The survey was conducted from late July through […]
Market Commentary: China Watch
Market Commentary: China Watch I’ve held the view that Chinese finance has been at the epicenter of international market unease. The U.S./China trade war was not the predominant global risk. However, it has had the potential to become a catalyst for Chinese financial instability. And there remains a high probability for an eruption of Chinese […]
Geopolitical Signals Of Global Economic Crisis Abound
Geopolitical Signals Of Global Economic Crisis Abound As I write this, news feeds are buzzing with questions and confusion over the October US/China trade talks. In September there was a massive propaganda campaign within the mainstream media to push the notion that a deal with China was imminent, which boosted markets otherwise on the verge […]
An Inflationary Depression
An Inflationary Depression Financial markets are ignoring bearish developments in international trade, which coincide with the end of a long expansionary phase for credit. Both empirical evidence from the one occasion these conditions existed in the past and reasoned theory suggest the consequences of this collective folly will be enormous, undermining both financial asset values […]
US Equity Futures Trade Near All Time High After ECB Goes All In
US Equity Futures Trade Near All Time High After ECB Goes All In If it was Powell’s intention to have the S&P trade at an all time when he cuts rates by another 25bps next Wednesday, he achieved it. S&P futures rose alongside Asian and European stocks as shares globally headed for a third weekly […]
Weekly Commentary: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out
Weekly Commentary: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out What a fascinating environment; each week bringing something extraordinary. Yet there is this dreadful feeling that things are advancing toward some type of cataclysm. “U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook. This manufactured disaster-in-the-making presents […]
