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More than 31,000 new jobless in Alberta as EI rolls climb to 544,200

There have been several rounds of layoffs in the oilpatch since 2014, with trades, transport, technical support, finance and management affected.

There have been several rounds of layoffs in the oilpatch since 2014, with trades, transport, technical support, finance and management affected. (Todd Korol/Reuters)

The number of Canadians receiving employment insurance benefits rose 9.2 per cent in the year ending in November 2015, according to new data from Statistics Canada, with most of the newly unemployed in Alberta.

There were sharp increases in new applicants from Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba, bringing the total receiving EI to 544,200 people. The unemployment rate in Canada last November was 7.1 per cent.

About two-thirds of the increase in the past year has been in Alberta, with 31,030 people applying for benefits in the year to November.

The pain has been spread equally between Edmonton and Calgary, with just over 20,000 new people on the EI rolls in each city.

Alberta has suffered several rounds of layoffs related to the low price of oil, with companies cutting back first contract workers, then long-time employees as the world market price fails to cover the cost of crude production.

Job losses in Saskatchewan, Manitoba

There’s been a 16 per cent increase among workers in trades and transport or equipment operation and a 17 per cent increase in natural and applied sciences, a term Statistics Canada uses to apply to more skilled workers including geologists and mine technicians.

Alberta has also seen job losses in finance, administration and management categories.

Statistics Canada says the number of new claimants has levelled off in the past few months.

Despite that, Saskatchewan saw a 4.6 per cent rise in claimants in November, Alberta was up 2.7 per cent and Manitoba was up 1.9 per cent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Foreign Investors Bail out of Canada’s Money Machine

November 17, 2015

Foreign Investors Bail out of Canada’s Money Machine

First net outflow from Canadian securities since 2008.

On first sight, it wasn’t that bad. Statistics Canada reported today that in September, foreign (non-resident) investors purchased C$3.3 billion of Canadian securities – adding C$3.2 billion in equities and C$0.9 billion in bonds to their holdings while getting rid of C$0.8 billion in money market instruments.

But in July and August, foreign investors had dumped large quantities of equities. While they bought Canadian bonds during those two months, it wasn’t enough.

So for the third quarter overall, foreigners dumped C$9.2 billion of Canadian equities; “the highest such decline since the first quarter of 2013,” Statistics Canada pointed out. They also dumped C$4.5 billion of money market instruments (private corporate paper and federal government business enterprise paper). And they picked up C$12.8 billion of bonds.

This makes for a total outflow of C$0.9 billion in the third quarter, the first such outflow of foreign investment from Canadian securities since 2008.

The data is very volatile, as the chart by NBF Economics and Strategy, a division of the National Bank of Canada, shows. But it had been volatile only with positive numbers, with increases of foreign investment, ever since that ignominious year 2008. So when this net quarterly outflow does occur, as it did in 2008 and in Q3 2015, it’s a sign of something larger:

“Canada seems to be less alluring to foreign investors these days,” NBF explains.

It doesn’t help that Canadian stocks, as measured by the TSX, are dominated by the energy and mining sector and by former hedge-fund and mutual-fund darling and now deposed Canadian superstar Valeant. So the TSX has gotten clobbered, down 14% since April.

And the Bank of Canada has been in interest-rate-cutting mode this year. Its intention has been to beat down the Canadian dollar even more, which it accomplished. In late October, it hit $0.748, its lowest level against the USD since July 2004.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadians piling up more garbage than ever before as disposables rule

September 30, 2015

Canadians piling up more garbage than ever before as disposables rule

There’s a high price to pay for our love affair with products of convenience

We like to think we’re behaving like model citizens, hauling our recycling to the curb and composting our banana peels. But the sad truth is, Canadians are piling up more household garbage than ever before. It appears that even in an era of environmental awareness, we just can’t quit our love affair with convenient, disposable products.

Unfortunately, all that convenience is costing us both environmentally and financially.

According to Statistics Canada’s latest data, the total amount of trash that Canadian households tossed increased by almost seven per cent since 2004 to 9.6 million tonnes in 2012. Although the population rose at a slightly faster rate over that period, the growing trash output is still startling considering the significant ramping up of the country’s many recycling and composting programs over those years.

“I’m not totally surprised but I am disappointed,” says Emily Alfred, waste campaigner with Toronto Environmental Alliance. She says a big culprit is the rapid pace of disposable products piling up in the marketplace.

“The rate of product design and new things being put on the market is faster than most municipalities’ [recycling systems] can keep up with,” she says.

Can’t get enough of convenience

Frozen vegetables in stand-up plastic bags on display in a store freezer. The City of Toronto cannot recycle these bags. (CBC)

One good example — those convenient resealable plastic bags often containing frozen fruit or vegetables that stand upright in a grocery store’s freezer. “It’s great for advertisers because you can now see their products,” says Alfred.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canada’s Retail Prices Jump the Most in “Over a Decade”

September 24, 2015

Canada’s Retail Prices Jump the Most in “Over a Decade”

When Statistics Canada released its July retail sales report today, it dished out a few unwelcome surprises – and a bombshell.

Among the surprises, based on what economists – though perhaps not average Canadians – had expected: Growth in retail sales was a measly 0.5% in July; and growth in June was revised lower to 0.4%, from the originally reported 0.6%. Year-over-year, retail sales rose just 1.8% adjusted for inflation.

The saving grace, sales of auto and parts dealers rose 2% month over month. Without them, retail sales were flat – also worse than economists had expected.

And by province, there were some ugly differences: on a year-over-year basis, not adjusted for inflation – more on that in a moment – nominal retails sales jumped 5.7% in British Columbia and 4.6% in Ontario. But at the other extreme, nominal retails sales edged down 0.7% in Newfoundland & Labrador, and slumped 3.6% in Saskatchewan and 3.7% in Alberta.

These two provinces are the epicenter of the Canadian oil bust, where a deep recession has set in. Home sales are plunging. Layoffs are cascading through the local economies. Uncertainly reigns. And consumers are reacting the best they can.

And here’s the bombshell: over the last six months, retail prices have jumped at the fastest rate in over a decade.

Inflation has obviously been too low in Canada, the US, Europe, Japan, etc. Heaven and earth must be moved by central banks to raise inflation. The Damocles sword of deflation – when money gains in value rather than loses in value – is hanging over our entire civilization.

But OK, when you go shopping, this sort of scenario isn’t quite that visible. What you see are price increases, and some of them are very painful.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What’s Coming Unglued Now in Canada?

September 5, 2015

What’s Coming Unglued Now in Canada?

Canada lumbered through the first half of 2015 in a “technical recession,” Statistics Canada confirmed this week, as GDP shrank in both quarters. Among the culprits: the swooning energy sector and an investment slump.

Now everybody is lining up behind the hope that a sudden acceleration will put the economy back on track in the third quarter, despite oil that has re-crashed and despite the ongoing collapse – and that’s what it is – of the all-important energy sector.

To get to this acceleration, the once booming residential and commercial construction sectors have to hold up, or else Canada’s economy is in real trouble. Alas….

“Canada is also in the midst of an ill-timed supply surge that caused vacancy rates to rise even in markets with positive absorption” in the second quarter, warns a new report by commercial real estate firm Colliers International cited by the Financial Post. It paints a picture of an epic office boom turned into an even more epic office glut, particularly in Calgary and Edmonton, Alberta, the epicenter of Canada’s oil patch.

This office glut comes on top of Calgary’s housing meltdown. For the first eight months, total home sales in Calgary plunged 25%, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. Condo sales collapsed 39% in August and 30% year-to-date. Inventory sits a lot longer on the market before it sells, if it sells. And pressures are building on prices: the average condo price was down over 10% in August from a year ago.

Commercial real estate is heading in a similar direction. Only worse. Calgary was a boom town. Office towers have been sprouting like mushrooms. In recent years, commercial real estate costs downtown were “going through the roof” and “accelerating at a pace far beyond the Canadian average,” Calgary Chamber of Commerce director of policy and research Justin Smith told the Financial Post. But it takes years to plan and build office towers, and now no one can just turn off the flow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Three Worrying Economic Trends Beyond Canada’s GDP Drop

September 3, 2015

Three Worrying Economic Trends Beyond Canada’s GDP Drop

New data confirms what 79 per cent of Canadians already felt.

The much anticipated quarterly GDP numbers are out, and StatsCan confirmed what 79 per cent of Canadians already felt to be the case — Canada’s economy is in decline. A drop in economic activity of 0.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2015 officially tipped Canada in recession territory (after a drop of 0.2 per cent in the first quarter).

The dip in GDP is what’s making the headlines this week, but there are three other trends in the new data released by StatsCan that suggest the economic slowdown is here to stay. Indeed, as my colleague David Macdonald noted here, “recession is just the tip of Canada’s economic iceberg.”

1. Business investment is down for the third consecutive quarter

This decline comes on the heels of a long post-recession period of weak business investment since early 2012. You may remember the former governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, famously accusing companies of sitting on piles of“dead money” in the summer of 2012. A quick look at the statistics shows little has changed since.

Business investment in non-residential structures and machinery and equipment from 2010 to 2015, via StatsCan.

The problem is that without business investment, we can expect weaker job growth and a slower economy to continue.

The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate in January 2015 in an attempt to to encourage investment and boost the economy. Unfortunately, all this seems to have done is further distort real estate markets, particularly in places like Vancouver where housing affordability is reaching record lows.

2. A number of key economic sectors are in decline, not just oil and gas

Over the last decade, Canada’s economy has become overly reliant on mining and oil exports. It’s not surprising that when the price of oil and minerals drops sharply, as it has over the last year, our resource sector would be hit hard. But the economic decline extends beyond mining, oil and gas.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Friday job numbers may tell tales GDP missed: Don Pittis

September 3, 2015

Friday job numbers may tell tales GDP missed: Don Pittis

Stats could show if slump is over and whether there is a rebound outside the oil industry

Opponents in the battle over whether the Canadian economy is collapsing or clawing its way back to recovery will get more ammunition on Friday. That’s when we learn the latest figures on job creation and unemployment.

Statistics Canada’s GDP data that we got earlier in the week is useful, but in several ways, the labour force survey is even better.

“I’d personally put more weight on labour market figures than the GDP,” says Mike Veall, professor of economics at McMaster University. Veall’s specialty is econometrics, reading economics through math and statistics.

Two months late

One of the problems with gross domestic product is that it’s not a simple figure, he says. It is more of a statistical construct estimating the total activity of the entire Canadian economy.

The owner of a Nova Scotia roofing company says he is finally getting his choice of good employees as workers return from Alberta. He says returning oil patch workers have been well trained in safety. (CBC)

One result of that lack of simplicity is a lengthy delay getting a reading of the data. Another is month-to-month inaccuracy.

The long and technical process of gathering all the components that go into creating those GDP calculations takes time. That means we don’t get a reading on each month’s economic growth until months after it happened.

Even then, new data can alter the calculations, resulting in revised figures. This week, for example, Statistics Canada told us the economy had actually shrunk by 0.8 per cent in the first three months of the year after previously telling us it had shrunk only 0.6 per cent.

“The main advantage of jobs numbers is their currency,” says Veall. “They’re more up to date.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s a Recession: Now, Who’s Hurting and Where?

September 2, 2015

It’s a Recession: Now, Who’s Hurting and Where?

We asked economists from coast to coast to see how Canada is weathering the storm.

Canada earned official recession status yesterday, a fact that pundits and politicians on the campaign trail wasted no time trying to spin.

According to the latest Statistics Canada data, the country’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.5 per cent (annualized) in the second quarter of this year, following a 0.8 per cent (annualized) decline in the first quarter.

Reacting to the news, the Conservatives played up the fact that the economy improved this quarter over last — though party leader Stephen Harper refused to utter the word “recession” at media stops in Ontario.

“If you look at the data over the last year, you actually see growth in 80 per cent of the economy,” Harper said. “That is the reality of the situation.”

Meanwhile, opposition parties tried their best to make Harper look like he doesn’t know a calculator from the five fingers on his right hand.

“The only person in Canada who doesn’t know that Stephen Harper’s plan has failed, or won’t acknowledge it, is Stephen Harper,” NDP leader Tom Mulcair said in Kelowna. “All the other objective measures prove that Stephen Harper’s plan has failed.”

One thing is for certain: it can take more than seven hours to fly across Canada, and the economies you would pass over are not the same.

So, to save you some airfare and lost luggage, The Tyee spoke to economists from coast to coast to see how the recession is affecting different parts of the country.

Two economies, two directions

It’s not a surprise that Canada has entered a technical recession, according to economist Mike Moffatt at the Mowat Centre, an independent think-tank in Toronto — but it is bizarre.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Recession confirmed as Canada’s GDP shrank in 2nd quarter

September 2, 2015

Recession confirmed as Canada’s GDP shrank in 2nd quarter

Canada’s economy expanded in June but declined by 0.1 per cent for the second quarter as a whole, meeting the bar of what is legally defined as a recession.

The economy expanded by 0.5 per cent in June, Statistics Canada said.

But that slight monthly uptick wasn’t enough to offset the contraction in the previous two months, which means for the second quarter as a whole, the economy shrank.

The economy also shrank in the first quarter, which means Canada’s economy has met the bare minimum required before a recession is declared — two consecutive quarters of decline.

On an annualized basis, the economy shrank by 0.5 per cent in the April-to-June period, after contracting at an 0.8-per-cent annual pace in the first three months of 2015. For comparison purposes, the U.S. economy expanded by 3.7 per cent during the same period, the data agency noted.

The ‘R’ word

Statistics Canada’s gross domestic product figures released today show the economy expanded in June, but declined by 0.1 per cent for the second quarter, meeting the bar of what is considered a recession. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)

The numbers bring an end to what had been a contentious issue during the current federal election campaign.

While most economists would agree that a recession is a more complex beast than merely pegging it to two quarters of negative growth, most agree it’s as good a place to start as any.

Indeed, the federal government’s recent legislation on balanced budgets defines a recession as “a period of at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real gross domestic product for Canada, as reported by Statistics Canada.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GDP figures from Statistics Canada expected to show second-quarter contraction

September 1, 2015

GDP figures from Statistics Canada expected to show second-quarter contraction

Lower loonie expected to boost economy in third quarter

Economists say data out this week is likely to show that Canada slipped into a technical recession in the second quarter, but the contraction should be short-lived.

“A number of positive elements are coming through,” said TD Bank chief economist Beata Caranci. “Even if, like we’re expecting, we get a contraction in the second quarter, the consumption numbers are likely to be fairly healthy.”

According to Thomson Reuters, economists expect Statistics Canada to report that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.0 per cent in the second quarter.

Among other data expected from Statistics Canada this week are July trade figures on Thursday and the jobs report for August on Friday.

The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.5 per cent in July amid concerns about the impact falling oil prices and weak exports on the economy.

In its July monetary policy report, the central bank estimated the Canadian economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.5 per cent in the second quarter, but predicted things would pick up in the second half of the year.

Caranci says the benefit of the lower loonie to Canada’s export sector should boost growth in the third quarter.

Although exports were supposed to see a boost sooner, Caranci says the sector’s sensitivity to the loonie has diminished over the past decade as the U.S. — Canada’s biggest trading partner — has been importing more from China and Mexico.

“For every percentage point of deprecation you get to the Canadian dollar you’re getting less of a lift to exporters,” Caranci said. “You’re getting not only less sensitivity but also a more delayed response, so it’s coming in much later than we had been forecasting.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alberta has lost 35,000 oilpatch jobs, petroleum producers say

August 31, 2015

Alberta has lost 35,000 oilpatch jobs, petroleum producers say

With cuts more likely to come in the fall.

Less than a year ago, Alberta was still complaining of a labour shortage. Schools couldn’t find bus drivers, job vacancy rates were the highest in the country.

It’s no secret that the situation has changed.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says that 35,000 oilpatch jobs have been cut this year, 25,000 from the oil services sector and 10,000 from exploration and production. CAPP pulled the number together by canvassing its members, reviewing Statistics Canada numbers and working with the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors.

I have CEOs that have pulled free pop out of the office, because they can save $40,000 across the company and that’s half a job.”– Tim McMillan, CAPP

“This is tough, they’ve been struggling to get a workforce, that was always the challenge,” said Tim McMillan, chief executive of CAPP.

“Today they are laying off people that they view as very valuable. I have CEOs that have pulled pop, free pop out of the office, because they can save $40,000 across the company and that’s half a job.”

Meanwhile, other industries are picking up some of the slack. The monthly labour force survey shows that Alberta’s job growth has been largely flat this year, jobs that have been lost in the natural resource sector seem to have been created elsewhere.

“There are definitely a lot of people from the oilpatch looking right now,”– Murray Glass, Southland Transportation

School bus company inundated with applications

After years of struggling to find drivers, Southland Transportation, which provides school buses to Calgary schools, has been inundated with applications this year, including some from engineers and geologists.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Recession Risk Mounting For Canada

August 3, 2015

Recession Risk Mounting For Canada

The latest economic data from Canada shows that it is inching towards recession, after its economy posted its fifth straight month of contraction.

Statistics Canada revealed on July 31 that the Canadian economy shrank by 0.2 percent on an annualized basis in May, perhaps pushing the country over the edge into recessionary territory for the first half of 2015. “There is no sugar-coating this one,” Douglas Porter, BMO chief economist, wrote in a client note. “It’s a sour result.”

The poor showing surprised economists, who predicted GDP to remain flat, but it the result followed a contraction in the first quarter at an annual rate of 0.6 percent. Canada’s economy may or may not have technically dipped into recession this year – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth – but it is surely facing some serious headwinds.

Canada’s central bank slashed interest rates in July to 0.50 percent, the second cut this year, but that may not be enough to goose the economy. With rates already so low, there comes a point when interest rate cuts have diminishing returns. Consumer confidence in Canada is at a two-year low.

There are other fault lines in the Canadian economy. Fears over a housing bubble in key metro areas such as Toronto and Vancouver are rising. “In light of its hotter price performance over the past three to five years and greater supply risk, this vulnerability appears to be comparatively high in the Toronto market,” the deputy chief economist of TD Bank wrote in a new report. A run up in housing prices, along with overbuilding units that haven’t been sold, and a high home price-to-income ratio has TD Bank predicting a “medium-to-moderate” chance of a “painful price adjustment.” In other words, the bubble could deflate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It Gets Ugly in Canada

August 3, 2015

It Gets Ugly in Canada

“It’s an election about who will protect our economy in a period of ongoing global instability,” Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada, announced on Sunday as he officially kicked off the campaign for the federal elections on October 19. He’d just asked Governor General David Johnston to dissolve Parliament.

“Now is not the time for the kind of risky economic schemes that are doing so much damage elsewhere in the world,” he said. “It is time to stay the course and stick to our plan.”

Stay what course, exactly? Because Canada is likely in the middle of at least a “technical recession.”

At first, there was hope that only the oil patch would be headed that way. Now the oil patch is already there. In the city of Calgary, Alberta, the epicenter of the oil bust, home sales plunged 14% in July year-over-year, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB). Year-to-date, homes sales are down 25%.

Despite months of assurances that the oil bust and the broader commodities rout won’t spread into the rest of the Canadian economy, they’re now beautifully spreading into it.

The Business Barometer Index of small business confidence dropped in July to 58.2, the worst level since mid-2009, a level that corresponds with a shrinking economy. “One normally sees an index level of between 65 and 70 when the economy is growing at its potential,” the report said.

That’s what Statistics Canada has been confirming for months: on Friday, it reported that GDP in May fell for a 5th month in a row.

“Much worse than the flat print expected by consensus,” is how Matthieu Arseneau, a Senior Ecoomist at National Bank Financial explained the phenomenon:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian dollar dips below 77 cents with more pain to come

August 1, 2015

Canadian dollar dips below 77 cents with more pain to come

TD Bank predicts 73-cent loonie as effects of low oil linger

The Canadian dollar is nearing its low for the year Friday, after news that the economy contracted for a fifth straight month in May.

The loonie closed at 76.45 US cents, down half a cent from Thursday, after Statistics Canada said the economy shrank 0.2 per cent in May. The lowest close this year is 76.40 US cents.

TD Bank economist Leslie Preston says the dollar is likely to go to 73 cents this year, and will stay in the mid-70s for at least another year.

“Lower oil prices and more stimulative monetary policy also led us to downgrade our forecast for the loonie. We now expect the Canadian dollar to depreciate versus the U.S. dollar, reaching 73 cents by the second quarter of next year, before rising gradually back up to 76 cents by the end of 2016,” she said in a report to investors.

Canada’s economic performance is a sharp contrast from the U.S. economy, which grew 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of the year according to the latest assessment from the Commerce Department.

Low oil prices, which have stayed below $50 per barrel for the past month, are hurting capital investment by the oil sector and have resulted in elimination of hundreds of jobs.

The low loonie was supposed to help Canada boost exports and stimulate the manufacturing sector, especially with the U.S. in growth mode.

But despite a Bank of Canada rate cut earlier this month, the business outlook is still lacklustre.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Canada Next? Recession Is “Quite Contained”

July 15, 2015

Is Canada Next? Recession Is “Quite Contained”

“In the current context, if you look at the growth numbers, the recession is effectively in the goods sector, it’s in the oil industry, it’s weak growth in manufacturing, weak growth in construction,” explained Kevin Page, Canada’s former parliamentary budget officer, a watchdog role charged with analyzing the state of the economy and government finances.

“It’s quite contained,” he told CBC radio, with an eerie echo of the Fed’s description of the US housing bust in the early stages of the Financial Crisis. There’s “still lots of growth in the service sector,” he said.

That’s what everyone is hoping. And it would just be a technical recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth – rather than an official recession.

There wasn’t a lot of room for optimism. The economy shed 6,400 jobs in June, according to Statistics Canada, with gains in full-time jobs and losses in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 6.8%, same since February. But there are numerous indications that contractors, which do much of the work in the oil patch, are still working, but a lot fewer hours, and that this deterioration, in Calgary for example, hasn’t been fully captured by unemployment statistics.

“If you look at the job picture, it’s gotten progressively weaker through the summer,” Page said. “I think that would be a concern for the government and a concern for the overall strength of our economy.”

“The economy’s weak, you can’t deny that,” Page added. “It will be pretty hard for Minister Oliver to keep that line that we’re not in a technical recession.”

Which is exactly what Finance Minister Joe Oliver has been “adamant” in denying, according to CBC. He referred to the 96,000 full-time jobs created so far in 2015 and cited, of all things, the IMF, which “confirmed what I and numerous independent analysts have been saying – the Canadian economy will grow this year.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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