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Connecticut Capital Hartford Downgraded To Junk By S&P

Connecticut Capital Hartford Downgraded To Junk By S&P One week ago, Illinois passed its three year-overdue budget in hopes of avoiding a downgrade to junk status, however in an unexpected twist, Moody’s said that it may still downgrade the near-insolvent state, regardless of the so-called budget “deal.” In fact, a downgrade of Illinois may come […]

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Jeff Gundlach: “Things Are Going To Get Pretty Scary”

Jeff Gundlach: “Things Are Going To Get Pretty Scary”  One day before the Fed’s June statement, Jeff Gundlach once again accurately predicted the somber mood that would ensue as a result of Yellen’s Wednesday decision and press conference when he correctly said that “Central Banks Are Losing Control.” Today, in the aftermath of James Bullard stunning […]

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The Monetary Base, Buybacks and the Stock Market

The Monetary Base, Buybacks and the Stock Market  A Useful Leading Indicator? We often see charts comparing the S&P 500 to the growth in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, or more specifically, to assets held by the Fed. There is undeniably a close correlation between the two, but it has struck us as not very […]

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Here Comes The Big Flush—–Recession Pending, Fed ‘Put’ Ending

Here Comes The Big Flush—–Recession Pending, Fed ‘Put’ Ending Talk about sheep being led to the slaughter. The S&P 500 is up 11% from its February 11th intra-day low (1812) because Wall Street still has inventory to unload. That much is par for the course. Yet the signs of an impending macroeconomic and profits implosion are now so overwhelming […]

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The Price Isn’t Right——-How Central Banks Are Fixing To Ambush The Casino

The Price Isn’t Right——-How Central Banks Are Fixing To Ambush The Casino The casino is incorrigible. After a monumental short squeeze that has lifted the averages right into the jaws of danger, Goldman Sachs has the temerity to print the following: “Our model suggests SPX calls are more attractive than at any time over the past 20 years”.  […]

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S&P Downgrades Saudi Arabia For Second Time In 4 Months, Also Cuts Oman, Bahrain

S&P Downgrades Saudi Arabia For Second Time In 4 Months, Also Cuts Oman, Bahrain For the second time in four months, S&P has downgraded Saudi Arabia. In late October, the ratings agency flagged sharply lower oil prices and the attendant fiscal deficit (16% in 2015) on the way to cutting the kingdom to A+ outlook […]

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Amazon And The Fantastic FANGs——A Bubblicious Breakfast Of Unicorns And Slippery Accounting

Amazon And The Fantastic FANGs——A Bubblicious Breakfast Of Unicorns And Slippery Accounting At year end we posted a rant about the “Brobdingnagian” bubble embedded in Amazon’s market cap. On December 29th it was valued at $325 billion and had gained $180 billion or 55% of that towering figure in just the previous 12 months. Self-evidently this was a flashing red warning signal that the end of the […]

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Global Corporate Debt is Coming Unglued

Global Corporate Debt is Coming Unglued Default Rate Highest since 2009, US Distress Ratio Soars. Standard & Poor’s slashed the credit ratings of 112 corporations around the globe to default (D) or selective default (SD) in 2015, according to S&P Capital IQ Global Credit. The highest number of global defaults since nightmare-year 2009, when a previously […]

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2015 Was The Worst Year For The Stock Market Since 2008

2015 Was The Worst Year For The Stock Market Since 2008 It’s official – 2015 was a horrible year for stocks.  On the last day of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 178 points, and overall it was the worst year for the Dow since 2008.  But of course the Dow […]

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It’s Just Not Saudi Arabia’s Year: First Oil Prices, Now This…

It’s Just Not Saudi Arabia’s Year: First Oil Prices, Now This… Last week, in the latest sign of Saudi Arabia’s deteriorating financial condition, S&P downgraded the kingdom to AA- negative citing “lower for longer” crude and the attendant ballooning fiscal deficit. To be sure, we’ve covered the story extensively and it was almost exactly one […]

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Stock Market Crash October 2015? 9 Of The 16 Largest Crashes In History Have Come This Month

Stock Market Crash October 2015? 9 Of The 16 Largest Crashes In History Have Come This Month The worst stock market crashes in U.S. history have come during the month of October.  There is just something about this time of the year that seems to be conducive to financial panic.  For example, on October 28th, […]

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“Everyone’s Praying But No One’s Believing” – The ‘Fed Put’ Is Dead

“Everyone’s Praying But No One’s Believing” – The ‘Fed Put’ Is Dead Chalk Outline Yellen’s detailed speech initially triggered an out-sized market reaction.  Unfortunately, it was mainly due to shallow market depth and weak-hand positions. The ‘risk-on’ trades that ensued seem driven by positional unwinds from short-term traders. These markets will likely reverse back to lower prices […]

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Two Outs in the Bottom of the Ninth

Two Outs in the Bottom of the Ninth The housing market peaked in 2005 and proceeded to crash over the next five years, with existing home sales falling 50%, new home sales falling 75%, and national home prices falling 30%. A funny thing happened after the peak. Wall Street banks accelerated the issuance of subprime […]

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Petrobras Default Looms Under $90B Dollar-Denominated Debt

Petrobras Default Looms Under $90B Dollar-Denominated Debt There is blood on the streets wherever you look in Brazil today, but probably of most interest to the hundreds of US asset managers (the ones managing your mutual funds) is what happens to Petrobras as it remains so widely held. As we noted below, bond prices are collapsing […]

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Brazil Cut To Junk By S&P, ETF Falls 5% Post-Mkt

Brazil Cut To Junk By S&P, ETF Falls 5% Post-Mkt It’s not as if the writing wasn’t on the wall, and don’t say we didn’t warn you. Brazil, whose economy officially slid into recession in Q2 – a quarter during which Brazilians suffered through the worst inflation-growth outcome (i.e. stagflation) in over a decade – and whose […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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