Home » Posts tagged 'prediction' (Page 2)
Tag Archives: prediction
Ben Hunt: Inflation Ahead!
Ben Hunt: Inflation Ahead! Why the investing world is about to change Ben Hunt — highly respected fund manager, author, and former professor/entrepreneur/venture capitalist — says that to be successful in managing your wealth, there’s only one question that matters: Are we entering a deflationary future, or an inflationary one? The strategies and appropriate investment […]
Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto
Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame. Illustration by David Parkins The COVID-19 pandemic illustrates perfectly how the operation of science changes when questions of urgency, stakes, values and uncertainty collide — in the ‘post-normal’ regime. […]
Nobody Knows Anything
Nobody Knows Anything The more I read and observe the clearer the message: Nobody knows anything. And by that I mean nobody truly knows how any of this will turn out and I think this point needs to be driven home more clearly. Tons of projections of this, that and the other. Just stop. I happen […]
What Does It Mean to Have Predicted an Economic Event?
What Does It Mean to Have Predicted an Economic Event? Consider the never-ending argument about whether certain economists did or did not predict the financial crisis in 2007-8. It raises all kinds of methodological questions in economics reaching back much further than Milton Friedman’s famous 1966 paper conceiving of economics as a predictive science. Here’s the fundamental conundrum: […]
Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell
Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell Almost Predictable One of the more enticing things about financial markets is not that they’re predictable. Or that they’re not predictable. It’s that they’re almost predictable… or at least they seem they should be. For a long time people believed – and from what we read and hear, many […]
Forecast 2019: Ding Ding ! Margin Call USA
Forecast 2019: Ding Ding ! Margin Call USA Welcome to the American hall of mirrors… and mind the broken glass all over the floor. That’s Nature’s way of saying the country has run out room to punk itself. 2018 was the consolidation of bad faith in everything we do: politics, the news media, economics & […]
Murky 2019 Could Be In Store for U.S. Economy Thanks to Fed’s Monetary Policy
Murky 2019 Could Be In Store for U.S. Economy Thanks to Fed’s Monetary Policy December 19 marks the day the Fed may have decided it’s going “all in” on the idea of a “strong U.S. economy.” The Fed locked in an increase of the Federal Funds Rate from 2.25% to 2.40%, and it will increase […]
Can Consumer Surveys Help Ascertaining the Future Course of an Economy?
CAN CONSUMER SURVEYS HELP ASCERTAINING THE FUTURE COURSE OF AN ECONOMY? In order to gain insight into the future state of an economy, many economists refer to a variety of consumer and business surveys. Randomly selected consumers and businessmen are asked to provide their views about where the economy is heading. Thus if a survey […]
What Comes Next
What Comes Next Previews of the coming reckoning All things have a beginning, a middle and and end. And now, more than 3,480 days into the current bull market, the longest in history, we can say with high confidence we are very close to its end. Why? For manifold reasons that are multiplying fast. So […]
Pulling the magical lever
Pulling the magical lever A critical analysis of techno-utopian imaginaries Image: Pixabay Ideas about the importance of the imagination in an age of political and ecological crisis are popping up everywhere: in the arts, in activism and other forms of politics, and in a wide range of academic disciplines and fields. This blog is one […]
Does it Matter Whether Assumptions in Economics are Arbitrary?
DOES IT MATTER WHETHER ASSUMPTIONS IN ECONOMICS ARE ARBITRARY? Various assumptions employed by mainstream economists appear to be of an arbitrary nature. The assumptions seem to be detached from the real world. For example, in order to explain the economic crisis in Japan, the famous mainstream economist Paul Krugman employed a model that assumes that […]
Storm warnings
Storm warnings Image: Tom Gill, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 “The test of science is its ability to predict” — Richard Feynman As if governed by some deterministic law, the current debates between economists and critics follow a predictable path. Critics begin by mentioning the failure of economists to predict or warn of the crisis. Howard Reed […]
Facebook Uses Artificial Intelligence to Predict Your Future Actions For Advertisers, Says Confidential Document
FACEBOOK USES ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO PREDICT YOUR FUTURE ACTIONS FOR ADVERTISERS, SAYS CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT SINCE THE CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA scandal erupted in March, Facebook has been attempting to make a moral stand for your privacy, distancing itself from the unscrupulous practices of the U.K. political consultancy. “Protecting people’s information is at the heart of everything we […]
Muck’s Minute #48 Future of Mankind Part III
Muck’s Minute #48 Future of Mankind Part III Authors’ note: The response to the first few parts of this series show that the vast majority of readers are myopic in their view point. This series is about l-o-n-g t-e-r-m consequences of currently occurring happenings. It is not intended to be thought of as a One […]
