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Why oil prices can’t rise very high, for very long

Why oil prices can’t rise very high, for very long Oil prices are now as high as they have been for three years. At this writing, Brent is $74.14 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate is at $68.76. These prices aren’t really very high, if a person looks at the situation from a longer term point […]

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Our Latest Oil Predicament

Our Latest Oil Predicament It is impossible to tell the whole oil story, but perhaps I can offer a few insights regarding where we are today. [1] We already seem to be back to the falling oil prices and refilling storage tanks scenario. US crude oil stocks hit their low point on January 19, 2018 and have started […]

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The Abnormality of Oil

Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Image The Abnormality of Oil At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the […]

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Will the World Economy Continue to “Roll Along” in 2018?

Will the World Economy Continue to “Roll Along” in 2018? Once upon a time, we worried about oil and other energy. Now, a song from 1930 seems to be appropriate: Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back […]

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Canadian Oil Prices Plunge To $30

Canadian Oil Prices Plunge To $30 Oil from Canada’s oil sands is now selling at a $27-per-barrel discount relative to WTI, the sharpest difference in more than four years. Western Canada Select (WCS), a benchmark for oil from Alberta’s oil sands, has plunged in December, falling to just $30 per barrel at the end of […]

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Expert Analysis: Oil Prices Have Risen Too Far Too Fast

Expert Analysis: Oil Prices Have Risen Too Far Too Fast Last Friday we argued that the rally in WTI and Brent looked overstretched from technical and positioning viewpoints. This week obviously didn’t serve our viewpoint as geopolitical tensions in Iraq alongside bullish long-term calls from Citi and the trading group community- particularly Trafigura- at APPEC […]

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Bill Blain: “Oil Could Change Everything”

Bill Blain: “Oil Could Change Everything” Blain’s Morning Porridge: A Short Distraction In The Oil Market Did I detect a distinct change in the market wind yesterday? There is a new freshening blow out the East. It feels like the world is changing: a slide in tech stocks and a wobble in sentiment, stronger oil […]

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An Improved Empirical Model For Oil Prices

An Improved Empirical Model For Oil Prices This is an update to the post An Empirical Model For Oil Prices and Some Implications in which we discussed a model for oil prices as a function of 3 years of production, that is oil price in year t was estimated by production in year t, the […]

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Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead

Why Oil Prices Can’t Bounce Very High; Expect Deflation Instead Economists have given us a model of how prices and quantities of goods are supposed to interact. Figure 1. From Wikipedia: The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price (supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing […]

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Not OPEC, China Dictates The Oil Prices

Not OPEC, China Dictates The Oil Prices The OPEC deal will lead to an ongoing tightening of the crude oil market, putting a floor beneath crude prices in the $50s per barrel in the second half of 2017, according to Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets. She said that prices should ultimately “grind higher into […]

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Oil prices set to rise sharply, unless new projects are approved

Oil prices set to rise sharply, unless new projects are approved Without new investments, oil prices will rise sharply in the next five years, energy conference told The International Energy Agency says there will be supply problems in three years if a two-year trend in falling oil investments continues into 2017. (Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press) Oil […]

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As Oil Markets Tighten, Geopolitical Events Matter Again

As Oil Markets Tighten, Geopolitical Events Matter Again Oil prices jumped on Thursday as surprise outages came from Canada and Libya, reversing several days of losses. WTI and Brent surged by more than 4 percent in early trading on May 5. The hellish wildfires sweeping swathes of Alberta near Fort McMurray forced the evacuation of tens of […]

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Alberta and oil prices: How Middle East geopolitics and religion affect our future

Alberta and oil prices: How Middle East geopolitics and religion affect our future Calgary’s economic fortunes enmeshed in decisions made on the other side of the globe Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi at a news conference following a meeting in Doha, Qatar February 16, 2016. (Naseem Zeitoon/Reuters) Calgary is unlike most other cities. It […]

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Oil Prices Fall Fast On Huge Inventory Build

Oil Prices Fall Fast On Huge Inventory Build Two hundred and twenty-two years after Josiah G. Pierson patented the rivet machine, and the oil market remains as riveting as ever. (I’m here all week, folks). After yesterday’s API report gave a flourishing hat-tip towards a large build to crude stocks and a large draw to […]

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An Empirical Model For Oil Prices and Some Implications

An Empirical Model For Oil Prices and Some Implications Introduction This work is preliminary. It is a preview of part of a paper I am writing with Aude Illig. There are three main reasons I am making this post. The first is as a public service. There are many people reading this blog who are […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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