Bill Blain: “Oil Could Change Everything”
Blain’s Morning Porridge: A Short Distraction In The Oil Market
Did I detect a distinct change in the market wind yesterday? There is a new freshening blow out the East. It feels like the world is changing: a slide in tech stocks and a wobble in sentiment, stronger oil prices and all the noise about Germany and where that leaves Europe, and Macron’s France’s dreams of Empire closer union.
Of course we still have all the usual worries, like North Korea saying Trumps twittering gives them carte blanche to shoot down American planes – which, to be honest, is unlikely because nobody is really that stupid… are they? And as Trump plays to red-neck sports fans, we also saw the death knell spike delivered on Obamacare reform. Then there is Spain vs Catalunya – perhaps a topic we should pay more attention to. And I think there was probably more news about Brexit, but to be honest I wasn’t paying attention and could not be ar**d to read about it. Bored of it. Get on with it.
As always, there is so much to think about.
Oil is one I’m watching closely because it’s the global commodity and market price that could change everything.
We’ve been arguing across the desk these past few years about whether $55-45 is the new normal range for oil, or do prices revert back towards $100? Some argue a stronger global economy means higher prices, others that the demand and supply dynamics have so fundamentally changed that a lower long term range is nailed-on for decades.
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