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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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The Global Growth Funk

The Global Growth Funk NEW YORK – The International Monetary Fund and others have recently revised downward their forecasts for global growth – yet again. Little wonder: The world economy has few bright spots – and many that are dimming rapidly. Among advanced economies, the United States has just experienced two quarters of growth averaging […]

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Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stilts

Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stilts NEW YORK – With most advanced economies experiencing anemic recoveries from the 2008 financial crisis, their central banks have been forced to move from conventional monetary policy – reducing policy rates via open-market purchases of short-term government bonds – to a range of unconventional policies. Although the zero nominal bound […]

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2008 Revisited?

2008 Revisited? NEW YORK – The question I am asked most often nowadays is this: Are we back to 2008 and another global financial crisis and recession? My answer is a straightforward no, but that the recent episode of global financial market turmoil is likely to be more serious than any period of volatility and […]

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The Global Economy’s New Abnormal

The Global Economy’s New Abnormal NEW YORK – Since the beginning of the year, the world economy has faced a new bout of severe financial market volatility, marked by sharply falling prices for equities and other risky assets. A variety of factors are at work: concerns about a hard landing for the Chinese economy; worries that growth […]

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The Europe Question in 2016

The Europe Question in 2016 NEW YORK – At the cusp of the new year, we face a world in which geopolitical and geo-economic risks are multiplying. Most of the Middle East is ablaze, stoking speculation that a long Sunni-Shia war (like Europe’s Thirty Years’ War between Catholics and Protestants) could be at hand. China’s […]

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The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk

The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk Among today’s geopolitical risks, none is greater than the long arc of instability stretching from the Maghreb to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. With the Arab Spring an increasingly distant memory, the instability along this arc is deepening. Indeed, of the three initial Arab Spring countries, Libya has become a […]

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The Return of Currency Wars by Nouriel Roubini – Project Syndicate

The Return of Currency Wars by Nouriel Roubini – Project Syndicate. NEW YORK – The recent decision by the Bank of Japan to increase the scope of its quantitative easing is a signal that another round of currency wars may be under way. The BOJ’s effort to weaken the yen is a beggar-thy-neighbor approach that is inducing […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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