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Is Draghi Really Ending QE?
Is Draghi Really Ending QE? Mario Draghi said the euro-area economy is strong enough to overcome increased risk, and therefore this justifies the European Central Bank’s decision to end bond purchases bringing to an end a decade-long failed experiment. The truth behind this statement is starkly different than being portrayed in the press. Draghi also pledged […]
A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall
A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall The prospects for the rest of the year are awful Après moi, le déluge ~ King Louis XV of France A hard rain’s a-gonna fall ~ Bob Dylan (the first) As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund […]
Central Banking: It’s Alive!!
CENTRAL BANKING: IT’S ALIVE!! In his recent posting on Linked In, entitled, ‘The death of macro-prudential’, Stuart Trow of the EBRD delivered a well-aimed broadside at the pitiable conduct of the Bank of England and elaborated on some of the malign consequences of its catalogue of errors. Without wishing to single him out unduly for […]
ECB & Bonds – People Believe What They Want to Believe
ECB & Bonds – People Believe What They Want to Believe QUESTION: the ECB is arguing that given the low free float of EU bonds (especially German), bonds not owned by the ECB or other central banks, the impact of an end to APP purchases will be nowhere comparable to the tapering sell-off in the US […]
Draghi Admits “Growth May Have Peaked”; ECB To Delay QE Unwind
Draghi Admits “Growth May Have Peaked”; ECB To Delay QE Unwind As we have showed repeatedly over the past month, the European economic imploding, and nowhere is this more obvious than the Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index why will soon hit its post financial crisis lows. It appears that after weeks of dithering, someone at […]
ECB Minutes Reveal Fears About Currency Wars, Euro Slides
ECB Minutes Reveal Fears About Currency Wars, Euro Slides There were two distinct reactions in the Euro to today’s ECB Minutes, released this morning. At first, the EUR jumped following initial headlines that the ECB acknowledged that revisiting the guidance would be “part of a the regular reassessment” going forward, but noting that any changes […]
Economic Collapse: Will Cryptocurrency Save the Financial System?
Economic Collapse: Will Cryptocurrency Save the Financial System? In the second article of my three part series, I addressed how we got to the current state of this financial chaos. In this last article, I explain where we are heading and how cryptocurrency could be the last chance to create a sustainable economic system. Where to go from here? […]
Weekly Commentary: “Not Clear What That Means”
Weekly Commentary: “Not Clear What That Means” November 15 – Bloomberg (Nishant Kumar and Suzy Waite): “Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn said the problems that caused the global financial crisis a decade ago still haven’t been resolved. ‘Have we learned our lesson? It depends what the lesson was…’ Einhorn said he identified several issues at the […]
Draghi Speech: Everything Is Awesome In Europe, No Signs Of Systemic Risks
Draghi Speech: Everything Is Awesome In Europe, No Signs Of Systemic Risks Mario Draghi gave the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress this morning in which he focused on the strong outlook for the Eurozone economy and how his monetary policy is playing a vital role. The speech was peppered with upbeat phrases […]
Is There a Way Out of the ECB’s Trap?
IS THERE ANY WAY OUT OF THE ECB’S TRAP? The ECB faces the Devil’s Alternative that Frederick Forsyth mentioned in one of his books. All options are potentially riskly. Mario Draghi knows that maintaining the so-called stimuli involves more risks than benefits, but also knows that eliminating them could make the eurozone deck of cards collapse. […]
European Banking Crisis
European Banking Crisis There is intense resistance building against the stricter new rules on bad loans among the European banks. This will hit Italy hard and may push off the edge more than one Italian bank. With the elections coming next year in Italy, the banking rules may be the straw that breaks the back. […]
Is There Any Way Out of the ECB’s Trap?
Is There Any Way Out of the ECB’s Trap? The ECB faces the Devil’s Alternative that Frederick Forsyth mentioned in one of his books. All options are potentially riskly. Mario Draghi knows that maintaining the so-called stimuli involves more risks than benefits, but also knows that eliminating them could make the eurozone deck of cards collapse. Despite […]
Dear Mario Draghi: About Your Victory Over Deflation Speech in March
Dear Mario Draghi: About Your Victory Over Deflation Speech in March In March, ECB President Mario Draghi declared victory over deflation. Let’s take a look at Eurozone inflation since his victory speech. On March 10, 2017, I reported ECB Declares Victory Over Deflation: Hallelujah! My lead-in comment was “ECB President Mario Draghi Declares Victory Over […]
Must Stop Digging
Must Stop Digging Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Intel and Draghi all handily beat expectations. Booming technology earnings confirm the degree to which Bubble Dynamics have become entrenched within the real economy. Draghi confirms that central bankers remain petrified by the thought of piercing Bubbles. There is a prevailing view that Bubbles reflect asset price gains beyond […]
Weekly Commentary: Arms Race in Bubbles
Weekly Commentary: Arms Race in Bubbles The week left me with an uneasy feeling. There were a number of articles noting the 30-year anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. I spent “Black Monday” staring at a Telerate monitor as a treasury analyst at Toyota’s US headquarters in Southern California. If I wasn’t completely in […]
