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Civil Unrest for 2018/2019 Post Election Cycle – The End of the United States?

QUESTION: I have followed you for many years and read you daily. To the point, I was looking at the riots in LA 1n 1965 and then the riots in 1992, that being 27 years so I divided that by 8.6 and got 3.14, so I backtested 27 years and found more race-related riots etc. Does this mean we will see riots in 2019?

TM

ANSWER: Yes. Our model is broader, and it extends back in time much further and incorporates all countries. This sort of civil unrest will rise in 2019 after the election cycle. It will not be just a race issue. It will be politically oriented and broader. Nonetheless, the Democrats will portray Trump and the Republicans as racists for the election fueling the fire of both race and class warfare.

We are preparing a report for the election cycle. This year is crazy. There are so many people in Congress calling it quits. The Republicans who will be defending 40 open House seats this fall compared with the Democrats’ 20 all because of retirement announcements. Even Speaker Paul Ryan told his colleagues he would not seek election. What is going on is that there are those in politics who see the handwriting on the wall. Politics is doomed. Those retiring seem to comprehend that incumbents may lose this round for the Trump Revolution is spreading even to the Democrats with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the 28-Year-Old Democratic in New York they call the  “Giant Slayer” because she was a bartender and unseated Representative Joseph Crowley, a 19-year incumbent, and Queens, New York’s political stalwart who had not faced a primary challenger in 14 years.

While the Democrats are cheering and claiming with 40 Republicans retiring it proves that Trump has destroyed their party. Of course, this is their perspective always focused on the hate the rich.

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Depression then Hyperinflation Coming – Charles Nenner

Depression then Hyperinflation Coming – Charles Nenner


Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says don’t believe the Federal Reserve when it says it expects “the strong performance of the economy will continue.” According to Nenner, it’s about to go the other way—down. Nenner explains, “Definitely, later this year, the interest rates are going lower, and it could be much lower. We did work on all kinds of economic indicators. Employment is not going to be as good anymore as they say. Inflation is not going to be as strong as they expect. The commodity index is breaking down. Copper cycles are down. Crude oil cycles are down. Soon, everybody is going to wake up again and say hey, what’s going on? It is very interesting how Wall Street is approaching all the indicators. . . . If you do your homework, everything actually looks like the economy is weakening.”

How bad is this financial cycle going to get? Nenner is not afraid to use the “D” word. Nenner contends, “Still, the Fed talks like this could continue forever, and it’s the longest expansion. So, why do you think this time is going to be different? If you start with this low of GDP and interest rates and then you get to recession or depression, then you definitely get into at least disinflation.”

So, does Nenner see an actual depression coming soon? Nenner says, “Yeah, I have been saying that for many years. . . . Yes, if you look at the . . . long term cycles. Yes, we are going to a hyperinflation, but first, we are going to have a deflation scare. . . . We have one more scare of deflation before we get into real big inflation problems. It is a matter of timing. So, it could be a couple of years away.”

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Wheat & the Drought Cycle

QUESTION: Interesting that $1.3T US spending bill was enacted on March 23, 2018, exactly 31.459 years after passage of US Tax Reform Act of 1986:

Also, the 86 year cycle in drought conditions in the midwest US seems to approach – is this why Marty thinks wheat will bottom this year?

The below Wikipedia link mentions a “short drought” in 1890 in the US Great Plains, and then a dust storm on November 11, 1933, in South Dakota (43 years later). Wikipedia also mentions that the US Great Plains entered an unusually dry era in the summer of 1930 (a little more than 86 years ago), with droughts coming in 1934, 1936 and 1939-1940.

Kansas is having drought conditions currently:

Poor winter wheat condition worrying Kansas farmers

I wonder if this is the year to go long wheat, especially since Marty forecast a bottom for this year?

Best,
J

ANSWER: Here is a chart of Wheat from 1259 to 2017 with the currency converted to dollars from British pounds using the conversion rate at the beginning of the US dollar extending it back in time. Here we can see the overall trend. Yes, there is an influence with respect to weather. However, the Dust Bowl was a local event.

What our computer is warning about begins next year with a Directional Change in Wheat. This cycle appears to be impacted by (1) significant climate change, and (2) the War Cycle. The combination of both is pointing to a bull market in nominal dollar terms.

 

How Do We Really Forecast the Future?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It is obvious that you have indeed been behind the curtain for your knowledge of even global politics is amazing. Kim Jong Un is here in Beijing. You said he would back down. You said the risk of war lies in the Middle East, not Korea. Your model calls the markets. You said the Dow would bounce for two days and then turn down. Even that took place today. Where do you begin and the computer ends?

UGH

ANSWER: That is a hard question to answer. The computer can show me the region for conflict. That is determined by cyclical trends for each region yet at times it is augmented by a combination of capital flows. Picking things like the fall of communism back in 1989 and picking when the Berlin Wall would fall were based cyclically on the outcome of that trend. That was 72 years from the Russian Revolution of 1917. That was the perfect target for the volatility models within the ECM. Both converged so it made it really a piece of cake.

The collapse of the Soviet Union came in 1991, that was a simple 2-year reactionary process all within a cyclical forecast. Now, the collapse of the Russian bond market which set in motion a major contagion and the Long-Term Capital Management debacle was determined from a capital flow and cyclical perspective. That came 8.6 years following the fall of the Berlin Wall. When that forecast made the front page of the second section of the FT, that is when even the CIA came. They suddenly realized that our model could forecast the rise and fall of nations. But that is also when the bankers began to complain to the CFTC and SEC that I was “manipulating” the world economy because they were all long Russian bonds and blamed me for their losses using the FT article as proof. They said I had too much “influence” rather than consider the possibility that just maybe we were able to forecast events that they thought bribing politicians would prevent.

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What We Face Requires a Cyclical Perspective

 

To survive what we face clearly requires an open mind to understand that everything in nature moves through a cyclical pattern. The majority of people see the world only in a linear fashion. Politicians proclaim they can change the world and create perpetual prosperity and/or punish those that cause recessions. Naturally, there are no mirrors in government so the culprit must always exist outside of their shenanigans.

I often get the question WHAT IF everyone followed my work. The answer is simple. That is IMPOSSIBLE. That is like saying why can we all not just vote the same. There will never be a single political party that the people would vote for because there are differences of opinion. The majority of society ignores history because that is the past and somehow irrelevant because we are more sophisticated today and those people ran around in diapers chucking spears at each other. This merely ensures that history repeats because they are far too ignorant to comprehend that life is like a Shakespeare play. It has been performed for hundreds of years and the only thing that changes has been the actors.

Human society as a whole expects a linear life of happily ever after and when that fails, they advocate punishing the person responsible. They cannot dare investigate that just perhaps the world works in a far more complicated manner than just that.

Those who think only linear cannot avoid the crash and burn. Those who see the world cyclically understand there is a time and place for everything.

Worst Drought in Capetown in 112 Years – Part of the Cycle

QUESTION: Marty,

Any thoughts/comments regarding the impending water shortage in Capetown? As a person who has much historical knowledge, are you aware of a major city such as Capetown ever running out of water? Or is this truly a historical first?

Love your blog as it covers so much information and isn’t just corporate financial data like so many others.

Your loyal reader from

Alan.

ANSWER: South Africa will score this season the worse drought since 1904 right on schedule on the 112-year cycle (1/2 224). We must respect that the climate is changing back to a dry cold period and this has impacted South Africa. This is also part of the cycle we see with rising food prices into 2024. Just as we have seen the coldest periods in the USA back to 1899, we are witnessing the worst drought in Capetown also back to the same general period. Unfortunately, yes they can run out of water on this cycle. It will be a very close call.

Taxes the Lynch-Pin of Civilization

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong: I find it disheartening the more I try to advance my family to build a better future for them, the more I realize that the harder I work we do not really get ahead. I agree that taxes just keep moving higher and I am now looking for a job in my field to leave California. A friend of mine from school left Illinois and moved to Texas. He said he feels much better and is gaining ground instead of losing it. Has taxes been the driving force to create migration in advanced civilization?

ANSWER: Absolutely. I have written how Rome fell and just mapping the population of Rome you can see the fate of Illinois – people sell and just leave. It is different this time because, under socialism, the government has become abusive. When it came to integration, they sought to implement it by sheer force.

You simply can’t legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. Jobs are created by the wealthy who become wealthy because of their innovation as a vision – i.e. Henry Ford, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and so on. Hemry Ford’s vision created the auto industry. Bill Gates in bringing DOS to life, created the personal computer industry as did Steve Jobs. How much employment did just those three men create? Far more than government.

Government creates nothing to advance society or to increase GDP in any positive manner. It is a natural human response not to pay taxes and this is why taxes have been the number one reason for civil war and revolution. It is always resentful to pay taxes whereas to give money to help someone is rewarding. Taxes tend to support politicians and their pensions which they exempt themselves from everything from Inside Trading to Obamacare. If they must sell some asset to take a government job, it is tax-free.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The ECM Turning Point — Sept. 30/Oct. 1 — Guns & War?

The ECM Turning Point — Sept. 30/Oct. 1 — Guns & War?

The unleashing of Russian firepower in Syria in support of the Syrian government came precisely on the day of the Economic Confidence Model. I have come to learn from observing this model that major world events, whatever the major focus may be, appear to line up with the ECM.

CycleOfWar-2014

This target has been huge for us given that we have TWO WAR CYCLE MODELS: (1) civil unrest that leads to revolution, and (2) international war. It is sort of like the Blood Moon stuff insofar as it does not line up so easily. The main convergence of the War Cycle between both models began to turn in 2014. The economic war against Russia imposing sanctions began on March 6, 2014 (2014.178) when Obama signed Executive Order 13660 that authorizes sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The next day, this order was followed by Executive Order 13661, which claimed that Russia had undermined the democratic processes. On March 20, 2014, Obama issued a new Executive Order: “Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine”. This order expanded the scope of the two previous orders to the Government of the Russian Federation; it included its annexation of Crimea and its use of force in Ukraine, which the U.S. claimed was a threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States. Then on April 28, Obama imposed more sanctions on Russia.

The third round of U.S. sanctions on Russia began from October into December 2014 over the turning point. On October 3, 2014, Joe Biden said, “It was America’s leadership and the president of the United States insisting, oft times almost having to embarrass Europe to stand up and take economic hits to impose costs.” The EU imposed sanctions on December 18, 2014, which banned some investments in Crimea and halted support for the Russian Federation Black Sea exploration of oil and gas.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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