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Tag Archives: global macro monitor
The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market
The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term interest rates low and term premia repressed are fading […]
Is Trump Starting To Lean On The Fed Or Setting It Up?
Is Trump Starting To Lean On The Fed Or Setting It Up? President Trump said in an interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernan this morning he “does not agree”, is not “thrilled” or “happy” with the FOMC’s interest rate hikes. The full interview and transcripts will be available tomorrow. Click here for excerpt of interview You Heard […]
Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics…And The CPI
Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics…And The CPI The first three of those words are attributed to the British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli, and also sometimes associated with Mark Twain. You know our skepticism of most government data, especially the BLS calculation of inflation in consumer goods and services. The data are so massaged by seasonal and […]
Interest Rates Starting To Bite
Interest Rates Starting To Bite We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 divie yield this past week for the first time in the last […]
What’s The Matter With Inflation?
What’s The Matter With Inflation? What’s The Matter Kansas inflation? The divergence of official inflation as measured by the government versus inflation realized by the consumer and businesses has never been greater, in our opinion. Go ask anybody on the street in America and Europe if think “doing life or business” is getting more expensive. […]
Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers
Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, just moving back to the long-run averages. […]
The Ambiguity of Stock Value: Why It’s So Difficult to Call The Top
The Ambiguity of Stock Value: Why It’s So Difficult to Call The Top This is one of our favorite posts of all-time. Thought it apropos to re-post given that everyone and their mother is trying to call the top in stocks. It’s all about yield-seeking capital flows, my friends. Tell us what interest rate is the […]
History’s Biggest “Butterfly Effect” Occurred On This Day
History’s Biggest “Butterfly Effect” Occurred On This Day Posted on June 27, 2017by The butterfly effect is the concept that small causes can have large effects. Initially, it was used with weather prediction but later the term became a metaphor used in and out of science. In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence […]
