As NATO has expanded eastward towards Russia, there has been an ever-present risk that its easternmost members would adopt a significantly more hawkish policy towards Russia than its original founding members. Some have seen this in Poland, possibly using the current Ukrainian crisis (and NATO in turn) to re-establish its former preeminence in Eastern Europe under the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. That’s why Poland has focused on possible Russian moves into the Baltic states, further possible Russian incursions into Ukraine, and leveraged possible division between Belarus and Russia.
Turkey’s recent downing of a Russian Su-24 warplane over the Turkey-Syria border has seriously raised the stakes in the Syrian Civil War. Even more telling was Turkey’s action afterwards, namely to seek common cause and solidarity with its NATO allies, before communicating with the Russians. Despite recent economic, specifically energy-related endeavors, the NATO consultation merely follows a pattern in which the Turks have sought assistance from distant Western Europe to counterbalance their proximate historical rival, Russia. Lastly, Turkey may be using its NATO allies’ fear and suspicion of Russia to re-establish the sphere of influence it once enjoyed under the Ottoman Empire.
Constantinople’s Fall and The Charge of the Light Brigade
Shortly after the Seljuk Turks smashed the remnants of the Byzantine Empire in 1453, Turkey started to assert a major role in European security affairs, specifically in the Balkans and Southeastern Europe. Already one of the world’s most economically-developed cities, Constantinople retained its strategic position as the literal crosspoint of Europe and Asia. The Turkish capital’s terrain significance was further enhanced by its position as a gateway between the Black and Mediterranean Seas.
With the onset of the Crimean War exactly four hundred years after the Byzantines’ destruction, Turkey was the actual focal point of the war itself.
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The immediate force behind the rapid and successful European overseas projection was actually the combination of two elements. Europe’s economic advancement (less the capacity to invent than the readiness to retake from others, the so-called superior adaptive capacity in technology, navigation, and transport) coupled with a demographic expansion – from early 16th century on. Still, is it credible to say that European history was enhanced by a progressive temporal linearity, whereas the rest of this planet was/is ruled by regressive temporal circles of stagnation? Or, is – on contrary – Gerard Delanty right when he claims that “Europe did not derive its identity from itself but from the formation of a set of global contrasts”?
One of the main migration routes is to head for Turkey, then to Greece in order to proceed towards the Balkans and Italy, and finally branch into France and then the United Kingdom. Another route sees passage via Romania, Hungary, and Austria, with the final destination of Germany. This route has drawn a lot of attention over the past few weeks as the number of migrants opting for it has dramatically increased. Note that the Syrian refugees are very different from the African migrants, whose routes begin in West Africa and the Horn of Africa, converging in Libya, where human traffickers and criminal organizations force them to ‘board’ the infamous ‘boats’ and cross the Mediterranean powered by fortune and prayer in order to land in Italy or Malta. There are also less popular – more controlled – routes that run through Algeria-Morocco-Spain.
Greece has defaulted on its 1.3 billion euro payment to the International Monetary Fund and the euro zone is still intact, but nobody has any clear idea about what will happen after next Sunday’s referendum.
The Many Faces of Energy Security
China’s land reclamation moves in the South China Sea may be cause for reproach, but no one will do a thing about Beijing’s island-building program beyond the huff and puff of objection.
