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Emissions reductions and world energy demand growth

September 24, 2016

Emissions reductions and world energy demand growth

A major obstacle to cutting global CO2 emissions is growth in world energy demand. In this post I examine world energy growth projections from a number of different sources and compare them with the growth trends that will be necessary to meet emissions reductions goals. It goes without saying that there is an enormous gulf between the two. This leaves the world with a stark choice – cut fossil fuel consumption by 80% by 2050 or suffer the consequences of global warming, whatever they may be.

Demand Projections

Energy and electricity consumption projections are published by a number of different sources and expressed in different units, but they all show more or less the same thing – continued growth concentrated in the developing countries, no large increase in renewables and no significant decrease in fossil fuel consumption.

First the US Energy Information Agency. Figure 1 shows EIA’s projections of energy consumption growth in the OECD and non-OECD countries through 2040. The annualized growth rate is 1.2% (note that all growth rates are expressed as annual percentages because the projections cover different time periods). Growth is projected to occur dominantly in the developing countries:

Figure 1: EIA energy consumption projection by OECD/non-OECD country.

Figure 2 shows EIA’s projections of electricity generation growth through 2040 by fuel type (annualized growth rate = 2.0%). The contribution from renewables increases from about 6% to slightly over 10%, but overall the generation mix is not substantially different to what it is now.

Figure 2: EIA electricity consumption projection by fuel type

Figure 3 shows EIA’s annual projections of energy consumption by fuel type. By 2040 renewables still provide less than 5% of the world’s energy demand. Oil, coal and gas continue to dominate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Energy limits: Why we see rising wealth disparity and low prices

July 10, 2016

Energy limits: Why we see rising wealth disparity and low prices

Last week, I gave a fairly wide-ranging presentation at the 2016 Biophysical Economics Conference called Complexity: The Connection Between Fossil Fuel EROI, Human Energy EROI, and Debt (pdf). In this post, I discuss the portion of the talk that explains several key issues:

  1. Why we are right now seeing so many problems with respect to wealth disparity and low commodity prices (Answer: World per capita energy consumption is already falling, and the energy/economy system needs to reflect this problem somehow.)
  2. Why the quest for growing technology leads to growing wealth disparity (Answer: The economy must be configured in more of a hierarchical pattern to support growing “complexity.” Growing complexity is the precursor to growing technology.)
  3. Why rising debt is an integral part of the energy/economy system (Answer: We could not pay workers for making long-lasting goods and services without using debt to “pull forward” the hoped-for benefit of these goods and services to the present, using debt and other equivalent approaches.)
  4. Why commodity prices can suddenly fall below the cost of production for a wide range of products (Answer: Prices of commodities depend to a significant extent on debt levels. A major problem is that when commodity prices rise, wages do not rise in a corresponding manner. Rising debt levels can mask the growing lack of affordability for a while, but eventually, debt levels cannot be raised sufficiently, and commodity prices fall too low.)
  5. The Brexit vote may be related to falling energy per capita in the UK. Given that this problem occurs in many countries, it may be increasingly difficult to keep the Eurozone and other similar international organizations together.
  6. My talk also touches on the topic of why a steady state economy is not possible, unless we can live like chimpanzees.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Looking Back 10 Years After Peak Oil

October 27, 2015

Looking Back 10 Years After Peak Oil

All views expressed here are those of Verwimp Bruno and do not necessarily represent those of Ron Patterson.

1. INTRODUCTION

Introduction

Peak Oil is the moment in time when, on a global scale, the maximum rate of oil production is reached. The moment after which oil production, by nature, must decline forever. Since Earth is a closed system, next to this production (supply) event, there must be an equal demand event: Peak Oil Consumption. Since there are no substantial above ground deposits, Peak Oil Production and Peak Oil Consumption must coincide. The world consists of a lot of different countries, some of which are already far beyond peak oil production That leads to the assumption the world as a whole reaches peak oil production. On the demand side, it is worth looking, because different countries have different economies, different degrees of development, and so on, if, while some countries still experience significant growth in oil consumption, some countries are already well beyond Peak Oil Consumption by now.

2. PRODUCTION vs CONSUMPTION

The production history of crude oil is well documented. For all relevant OPEC and NON-OPEC countries the data are gathered by Peakoilbarrel.com here, OPEC Charts, and here, Non-OPEC Charts, respectively. It is clear some countries have reached peak oil production long time ago. For readers of this blog, familiar with these data, this is no surprise. Still world oil production is growing, because some countries make up for the countries that are losing production. Many readers of Peakoilbarrel.com wonder when the exact moment will be when global oil production will have reached that ultimate peak. But how relevant is that moment? Will it bring doom, gloom, the end of motoring, plastics and tooth paste. It might be more interesting to know whether your country is before, beyond or at Peak Oil Consumption right now. And what about coal and natural gas?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Duality in climate science

October 16, 2015

Duality in climate science

A commentary published in Nature Geoscience (online Oct. 2015)

Brief Abstract:
The commentary demonstrates the endemic bias prevalent amongst many of those developing emission scenarios to severely underplay the scale of the 2°C mitigation challenge. In several important respects the modelling community is self-censoring its research to conform to the dominant political and economic paradigm. Moreover, there is a widespread reluctance of many within the climate change community to speak out against unsupported assertions that an evolution of ‘business as usual’ is compatible with the IPCC’s 2°C carbon budgets. With specific reference to energy, this analysis concludes that even a slim chance of “keeping below” a 2°C rise, now demands a revolution in how we both consume and produce energy. Such a rapid and deep transition will have profound implications for the framing of contemporary society and is far removed from the rhetoric of green growth that increasingly dominates the climate change agenda.

DOI:10.1038/ngeo2559  http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2559.html

The commentary should also be available to all, including non-subscribers, via http://rdcu.be/eoQY (this may not download onto phones, iPads, etc.)
An open access and pre-edit pdf is available at: On the duality of climate scientists – pre-edit version of a submission to Nature – 2015 This pre-edit version is also copied below.

 

*****

On the duality of climate scientists:
… how integrated assessment models are hard-wired to deliver politically palatable outcomes

The value of science is undermined when we adopt questionable assumptions and fine-tune our analysis to conform to dominant political and economic sensibilities. The pervasive inclusion of speculative negative emission technologies to deliver politically palatable 2°C mitigation is but one such example. Society needs scientists to make transparent and reasoned assumptions, however uncomfortable the subsequent conclusions may be for the politics of the day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Energy round-up: tectonic shifts

June 13, 2015

Energy round-up: tectonic shifts

Photo credit:   gnuckx

Three things you shouldn’t miss this week
  1. Chart: Is the global economy becoming less energy intensive?

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

  1. Article: Fossil fuel divestment is rational, says former Shell chairman – Mark Moody-Stuart is also worried about the lack of industry progress in addressing climate change.
  1. Article: BP sees ‘tectonic shift’ in world energy production – Energy consumption slows dramatically as China cutback and Opec battle US shale drillers.

This week the latest edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energynoted two important trends.

  1. Renewables are still the fastest growing source of global energy

In 2014 global energy consumption growth fell to its lowest level since 1998: even better is that renewables made up 30% of that growth. While this is positive, the scale of the challenge can’t be underestimated: BP’s report shows that renewables still contribute just 3% of global primary energy.

Indeed, a new report from the IEA this week called for more policy support for the sector because the current rate of progress is not fast enough to meet the 2°C climate target. For the same reason, a group of scientists and economists led by Sir David King, former chief scientific advisor to the UK government, called for an Apollo-style mission to make renewable power cheaper than coal within a decade.

  1. Global greenhouse gas emissions growth has slowed to 0.5%

However, the emissions figures aren’t as positive as the IEA’s preliminary estimates which showed 2014 emissions stalling at 2013 levels. While it’s encouraging to see emissions growth starting to slow, we mustn’t forget that what we really need is a rapid decrease overall.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

May 7, 2015

Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article called, Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching what has been called Limits to Growth, a situation modeled in 1972 in a book by that name.

What happens is that economic growth eventually runs into limits. Many people have assumed that these limits would be marked by high prices and excessive demand for goods. In my view, the issue is precisely the opposite one: Limits to growth are instead marked by low prices and inadequate demand. Common workers can no longer afford to buy the goods and services that the economy produces, because of inadequate wage growth. The price of all commodities drops, because of lower demand by workers. Furthermore, investors can no longer find investments that provide an adequate return on capital, because prices for finished goods are pulled down by the low demand of workers with inadequate wages.

Evidence Regarding the Connection Between Energy Consumption and GDP Growth

We can see the close connection between world energy consumption and world GDP using historical data.

 

Figure 1. World GDP in 2010$ compared (from USDA) compared to World Consumption of Energy (from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014).

This chart gives a clue regarding what is wrong with the economy. The slope of the line implies that adding one percentage point of growth in energy usage tends to add less and less GDP growth over time, as I have shown in Figure 2. This means that if we want to have, for example, a constant 4% growth in world GDP for the period 1969 to 2013, we would need to gradually increase the rate of growth in energy consumption from about 1.8% = (4.0% – 2.2%) growth in energy consumption in 1969 to 2.8% = (4.0% – 1.2%) growth in energy consumption in 2013.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

Something To Consider Before Buying In To Rooftop Solar

April 21, 2015

Something To Consider Before Buying In To Rooftop Solar

Green energy has moved to the forefront of the national conversation on energy production even as oil prices sit near decade lows. The simple fact that solar power and wind power now command so much attention speaks to how the country’s views on energy have changed. But now some people are going one step further and actually looking to install enough solar panels on their homes to become energy positive – that is to generate more energy than they actually consume. Britain’s Guardian newspaper ran a recent story about this , but that story skipped over a few obvious issues. Issues that became clear to me after I recently talked to a solar company about making my home energy producing.

Producing more energy than a house consumes is very easy for some homes and essentially impossible for others. Most obviously, people in climates without a lot of sunlight will have a much more difficult time producing energy than people in sunnier climates. Even forgetting about that fact, the direction a house is facing, trees in the area, and angle of the roofline all dramatically impact the level of solar production that can be expected from a house.

Related: Saudi Price War Strategy May Blow Up In Their Face

Energy producing homes rely on creating large amounts of solar energy, while consuming relatively little energy. The consumption side of that equation is fairly straightforward and uncontroversial – having thick insulation and energy saving light bulbs are not generally a major inconvenience for most people. Unfortunately, producing solar energy requires a trade-off. For example, an individual could always produce more solar power by filling not only their roof with solar panels, but also their front yard, yet very few people want to give up their lawn for solar arrays.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

With corporate energy, we’re stuck in the dark ages – let’s switch to public ownership

March 9, 2015

With corporate energy, we’re stuck in the dark ages – let’s switch to public ownership

It is clear that Britain has an energy problem. The privatisation and ‘liberalisation’ of the energy market has left us with six dominant suppliers from which over 90% of us buy our energy. 1 in 10 households in the UK are in fuel poverty. Confidence in the ability of the biggest energy companies to act in the public interest has almost completely eroded, and the head of Ofgem has identified a ‘deep mistrust in anything the energy companies do or say’. The Big Six have faced continued criticism over widening profit margins and a perception that they abuse their dominant market position. Average pre-tax profits are expected to reach £114 per household over the next year, despite plummeting oil and gas prices. And we are categorically failing to make the necessary moves towards green sources of energy; just 5.2% of our overall energy consumption is from renewable sources, one of the lowest in the EU.

Anyone can see that the system is broken. But to how fix it? What would a new energy paradigm look like? This was the topic of an inspiring workshop event, ‘Imagining Energy Democracy’, organised and chaired by Global Justice Now, and attended by a wealth of campaigners and academics. We allowed our minds to wander, to dream, to imagine an energy future not dominated by fossil fuels and large private companies, but a future in which ‘energy democracy’ had won out against corporate profit and climate destruction.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

The end of global development as we know it | News | Engineering for Change

December 4, 2014

The end of global development as we know it | News | Engineering for Change.

Development professionals do their work under the assumption that the developing world will some day look a lot like the developed world. But there’s a good chance that they’re wrong. A practical look at the world’s energy supply, and interesting new research into the link between energy, culture and quality of life, shows that the reverse is probably true: The developed world will soon look more like the developing world. Here’s why that’s happening and what we can do to prepare for a big change right now.

From farmers to desk jockeys
Since the early 1990’s, the US government has not counted “farmers” as a category in the national census, and that is a symptom of energy consumption. Diesel fuel, chemical fertilizers and pesticides are all forms of energy that have supplanted human and animal muscle on the farm. This energy, that comes from cheap, accessible fossil fuels, has turned the agrarian serfs of the middle ages into today’s corporate, government, and academic “cubicle serfs,” in developed countries. And global development professionals are trying to shepherd the developing world along the same path.

Fossil energy has facilitated three doublings of the global population since the eighteenth century, while erecting a byzantine techno-social hierarchy in the developed world and in the power centers of the developing world.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Global Fossil Fuel Dependence Hasn`t Changed In 20 Years

November 3, 2014

How Global Fossil Fuel Dependence Hasn`t Changed In 20 Years.

Whilst enjoying the good natured exchanges on this blog concerning the pros and cons of new renewable energy sources I decided to dig deeper into the success of Green energy policies to date. Roger Andrews produced this chart the other day and the low carbon energy trends caught my eye. It is important to recall that well over $1,700,000,000,000 ($1.7 trillion) has been spent on installing wind and solar devices in recent years with the sole objective of reducing global CO2 emissions. It transpires that since 1995 low carbon energy sources (nuclear, hydro and other renewables) share of global energy consumption has not changed at all (Figure 1). New renewables have not even replaced lost nuclear generating capacity since 1999 (Figure 2). ZERO CO2 has been abated and the world has done zilch to prepare itself for the expected declines (escalating costs) of fossil fuels in the decades ahead. If this is not total policy failure, what is?

Global Low Carbon Energy Consumption

Figure 1 Nuclear, Hydro and Other Renewables (mainly wind and solar) expressed as % of total global energy consumption. The combined low carbon share reached 13.1% in 1995. In 2013 it was 13.3%. From this chart it is easy to see that Other Renewables have simply compensated for the decline in nuclear power a point made clearer in Figure 2.

One of the main problems with Green thinking is that many Greens are against both fossil fuel (FF) based energy and nuclear power. There are some notable exceptions, James Lovelock and George Monbiot, and I recognise that a number of the “pro-renewable” commenters on this blog are at least not anti-nuclear. It would also be unfair to blame the relative decline of nuclear power since 2001 exclusively on Greens but they do have to shoulder a significant slice of that responsibility.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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