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Back before 2008 Peter Schiff was harshly criticized and laughed at for his predictions about a coming economic collapse. Among other things Schiff warned that consumer spending had hit a wall, stocks were overpriced and lax credit lending practices would lead to a detonation of the banking system. Rather than heed the warnings, the biggest names in mainstream media tried to discredit him for not toeing the official narrative. Shortly thereafter, of course, Schiff was vindicated and much of the doom he had forecast came to pass.

Today, Schiff continues to argue that the economy is on a downhill trajectory and this time there’ll be no stopping it. All of the emergency measures implemented by the government following the Crash of 2008 were merely temporary stop-gaps. The light at the end of the tunnel being touted by officials as recovery, Schiff has famously said, is actually an oncoming train. And if the forecast he laid out in his latest interview is as accurate as those he shared in 2007, then the the train is about to derail.

We’re broke. We’re basically living off of debt. We’ve had a huge transformation of the American economy. Look at all the Americans now on food stamps, on disability, on unemployment.

The whole economy has imploded… the bottom hasn’t dropped out yet because we’re able to go deeper into debt. But the collapse is coming.

(Watch at Youtube)

Fundamentally, America is worse off now than it was pre-crash. With the national debt rising unabated and money being printed out of thin air without reprieve, it is only a matter of time.

Schiff notes that while government statistics claim Americans are saving again and consumers seem to be spending, the average Joe Sixpack actually has a negative net worth. But most people don’t even realize what’s happening:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Slower Money Is the Key to a Real Economic Recovery

November 13, 2015

Why Slower Money Is the Key to a Real Economic Recovery

An exciting crop of organizations are financing businesses in a way that creates real wealth. Here are a few ways to scale them up so that they can truly challenge Wall Street.

There’s a financial fault line that runs through the heart of our economy. Wall Street’s most recent rumblings—which saw the major indices take a dive in response to weak growth in China—are a stark reminder of the danger. If the stocks go tumbling in, so do our businesses, jobs, paychecks, and pensions. The tremors may have subsided for the moment, but if we’re to give the late financial seismologist Charles Kindleberger any credit, the next big one could be right around the corner.

What we really need is a comprehensive rebuild beyond the quake zone.

According to Kindleberger’s classic book Manias, Panics and Crashes, the market sees notable financial quakes or “panics” roughly every seven years or so. The frequency has increased recently, with significant panics occurring in 1989 (Savings and Loan crisis), 1992 (Britain’s Black Wednesday), 1997 (East Asian crisis), 1999 (Tech Bubble), and of course 2007-08. Whether the recent seven-year twitch turns out to be just a minor temblor or a foreshock to something much worse remains to be seen.

But one thing is for certain: If we don’t find a way to shift our increasingly financialized economy to stable ground, the next big crash is inevitable.

The Wall Street formula for disaster is simple: ever-greater money chasing ever-bigger bets with ever -faster payoffs on ever-riskier financial products equals crashes of seismic proportions. Greater, bigger, faster, riskier. It’s like a twisted Daft Punk song.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bubble Bubble Where is the Bubble

September 23, 2015

Bubble Bubble Where is the Bubble

It is fascinating that when I warn of anything using the word “CRASH” newspapers immediate report it as I am forecasting a crash in the stock market. This demonstrates that there is no consideration that government can also crash and burn – the perfect example of 100% confidence. Yes, if this week simply closes on the Dow below 16280, then we can be looking at that slingshot move I have warned about where in one year, we have a crash and a swing to the upside to new highs. These type of events are the ultimate mind game, but that is how they destroy the majority. As for those who write asking which investment will be safe – the answer is NONE.

While those who distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold or whatever, keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITHstocks in 1932. Real Estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe, then everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929 and then crashed and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing – ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. So why the charlatans are trying to sell you newsletter with promises of if you just bought this letter you will make 20,000%, keep in mind this is a period of survival we are entering – not wild speculation. If you do not understand the nature of the beast, the beast will have you for lunch.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Now Is The Time – Fear Rises As Financial Markets All Over The Planet Start To Crash

July 28, 2015

Now Is The Time – Fear Rises As Financial Markets All Over The Planet Start To Crash

Can you feel the panic in the air? CNN Money’s Fear & Greed Index measures the amount of fear in the financial world on a scale from 0 to 100. The closer it is to zero, the higher the level of fear. Last Monday, the index was sitting at a reading of 36. As I write this article, it has fallen to 7. The financial turmoilwhich began last week is threatening to turn into an avalanche. On Sunday night, we witnessed the second largest one day stock market collapse in China ever, and this pushed stocks all over the planet into the red. Meanwhile, the twin blades of an emerging market currency crisis and a commodity price crash are chewing up economies that are dependent on the export of natural resources all over the globe. For a long time, I have been warning about what would happen in the second half of 2015, and now it is here. The following is a summary of the financial carnage that we have seen over the past 24 hours…

-On Sunday night, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.5 percent. It was the largest one day stock market crash in China since 2007, and it was the second largest in history. The Chinese government is promising to directly intervene in order to prevent Chinese stocks from going down even more.

-Over 1,500 stocks in China fell by their 10 percent daily maximum. This list includes giants such as China Unicom, Bank of Communications and PetroChina.

-Ever since peaking in June, the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by a total of 28 percent.

-Even Chinese stocks that are listed on U.S. stock exchanges are being absolutely hammered. The following comes from USA Today…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Governments Worldwide Will Crash the First Week of October … According to 2 Financial Forecasters

July 20, 2015

Governments Worldwide Will Crash the First Week of October … According to 2 Financial Forecasters

Update: Please see correction at the end.

Two well-known financial forecasters claim that virtually all governments worldwide will be hit with a gigantic economic crisis in the first week of October 2015.

Martin Armstrong

Martin Armstrong is a controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events … more or less to the day. Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best.

(On the other hand, he was jailed for 11 years on allegations of contempt, fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. Armstrong’s supporters say the government jailed him on trumped-up charges as a way to try to pressure him into handing over his forecasting program).

Armstrong has predicted for years that governments worldwide would melt down in a crisis of insolvency and lack of trust starting this October. Specifically, Armstrong predicts that a major cycle will turn on October 1, 2015, shifting investors’ trust from the public sector and governments to the private sector.

Unlike other bears who predict that the stock market is about to collapse, Armstrong predicts that huge sums of capital will flow from bonds and the Euro into American stocks. So he predicts a huge bull market in U.S. stocks.

Larry Edelson

Edelson is another long-time student of cycle theory. Edelson – a big fan Armstrong – has also studied decades of data from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

Edelson is predicting the biggest financial crisis in world history – including a collapse of government solvency – starting on October 7, 2015 – the same week as Armstrong’s prediction – when the European Union breaks up.

Edelson also thinks that huge sums of investment will flow from the Eurozone to America, driving up U.S. stocks (unlike Armstrong, Edelson thinks U.S. bonds will also benefit). He thinks that Japan will be the next domino to fall … and that Japan’s default will also drive investments into the U.S. as a safe haven.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

URGENT WARNING: 6 Signs the Great Crash Is Upon Us!

July 17, 2015

URGENT WARNING: 6 Signs the Great Crash Is Upon Us!

The Greek default proves that all this endless quantitative easing idiocy couldn’t live up to the promises. It has proved unable to create sustainable long-term recoveries in highly indebted developed countries with poor demographic trends.

The Greek parliament caved into totally repulsive demands, as I said on Monday that it would. They did it out of stark fear of the chaos a Grexit would bring before free market forces resolved their trade and budget imbalances.

I don’t believe they did the right thing. From the looks of the discontent on the ground, many Greeks don’t either. Be that as it may, this can has been kicked just a little further down the road, yet again.

But the whole mess made investors nervous. As did the recent collapse of China’s stock market which just added to the growing concerns.

Investors are right to worry. I’ve been saying for years that the greatest trigger would be the bursting of the massive, unprecedented China bubble.

How can it not?!

Its stock market soared 159% in less than a year. It gained 30% in justtwo months!

Then its stocks took a nose dive, losing 35% in less than 30 days.

Understand that if China’s stock market had lost just 20%, it would have meant nothing. But, as I’ve always said, a drop of 30% to 40% in short order is a clear sign of a first wave down in a major bust. That’s why I’m always telling you to rather be safe than sorry. If you don’t follow a reliable, proven investment strategy – like any of our premium research services, from Boom & Bust, Cycle 9 Alert, Max Profit Alert, BioTech Intel Trader, Triple Play Strategy and Dent Digest Trader – waiting passively for that extra 1% or even 5% is like playing Russian Roulette.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Forget Greece … China Is the Real Threat

July 2, 2015

Forget Greece … China Is the Real Threat

When the ATMs Went Dark …

There’s a time for calm, rational behavior … and a time to panic. On Tuesday, investors in U.S. stocks decided not to panic. Monday’s sell-off halted. But it did not reverse.

And it left the street with its worst half-year performance since 2010. Gain for 2015 so far? Zilch. But have we seen the top? We will have to wait to find out.

Fox News reports that Greeks are eyeing Bitcoin to protect their savings. At midnight Tuesday night, the Greek government defaulted on a €1.5-billion loan repayment to the IMF. And it has imposed a 60-euro-a-day limit on cash withdrawals.

As of today, depositors reportedly only get 50 euro per day, because the banks have run out of 10s and 20s.

This leaves many Greeks short and looking for alternatives. Pity those who were last in line at the ATMs before they went dark. Says a restaurant owner in Athens, quoted by the Associated Press:

“You don’t know what can happen. In my case, I have money, and I don’t have money in a sense. I have it in the bank, but I can’t get it in my hands. It’s crazy.”

As we’ve been pointing out, money in the bank is not the same as money in hand. The first is just a loan to what could be a bankrupt institution. It could be worth nothing. The second is cash – ready, handy, and extremely useful.

In a financial emergency, there won’t be a liquor store in town that won’t welcome you as a customer. A Greek butcher… also to Associated Press:

“I have no cash to pay for meat supplies for next week because of the capital controls. Sooner or later, probably in this month, I’ll have to let 10 people go.

The people are buying with cash, not credit cards, and the problem is the customers don’t have cash.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Does California Gov. Jerry Brown Know about the Next Crash and Recession that We Don’t?

June 11, 2015

What Does California Gov. Jerry Brown Know about the Next Crash and Recession that We Don’t?

California was America’s Greece in 2009. It had excellent wine and olive oil. But tax revenues were collapsing. The deficit ballooned. Its credit rating was cut to the lowest of any state in the US. It couldn’t borrow at reasonable rates. And when, under Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, it couldn’t pay its bills with real money, it sent fancy-looking IOUs to its suppliers.

Today, California is flush with money. The economy in the coastal areas has bounced back. Unemployment, while still high in some areas, continues to drop. The budget is on its second annual “surplus” in a row. Capital gains taxes from the booming tech sector, the soaring stock market, the white-hot property sector, and all kinds of other investment activities, on top of some “temporary” tax increases, triggered a flood of revenues – $6.7 billion more than Brown’s office had estimated just in January.

OK, no one can figure out how to deal with the unfunded pension and healthcare liabilities. But what the heck, lawmakers at the Democratic stronghold are now fighting over how to spend the “surplus.” They’ve got till June 15 to figure it out and pass a budget or their pay will be docked.

Gov. Jerry Brown, sworn in for his fourth and final term in January – he’d served two terms in the 1970s – is putting his stamp of frugality on the budget, trying to stem the flood of spending proposals. But lawmakers need to be reelected, votes need to be bought, special interests need to be satisfied, and so the money needs to flow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Coming Crash of All Crashes – but in Debt

May 17, 2015

The Coming Crash of All Crashes – but in Debt

Why are governments rushing to eliminate cash? During previous recoveries following the recessionary declines from the peaks in the Economic Confidence Model, the central banks were able to build up their credibility and ammunition so to speak by raising interest rates during the recovery. This time, ever since we began moving toward Transactional Banking with the repeal of Glass Steagall in 1999, banks have looked at profits rather than their role within the economic landscape. They shifted to structuring products and no longer was there any relationship with the client. This reduced capital formation for it has been followed by rising unemployment among the youth and/or their inability to find jobs within their fields of study. The VELOCITY of money peaked with our ECM 1998.55 turning point from which we warned of the pending crash in Russia.

The damage inflicted with the collapse of Russia and the implosion of Long-Term Capital Management in the end of 1998, has demonstrated that the VELOCITY of money has continued to decline. There has been no long-term recovery. This current mild recovery in the USA has been shallow at best and as the rest of the world declines still from the 2007.15 high with a target low in 2020, the Federal Reserve has been unable to raise interest rates sufficiently to demonstrate any recovery for the spreads at the banks between bid and ask for money is also at historical highs. Banks will give secured car loans at around 4% while their cost of funds is really 0%. This is the widest spread between bid and ask since the Panic of 1899.

We face a frightening collapse in the VELOCITY of money and all this talk of eliminating cash is in part due to the rising hoarding of cash by households both in the USA and Europe. This is a major problem for the central banks have also lost control to be able to stimulate anything.The loss of traditional stimulus ability by the central banks is now threatening the nationalization of banks be it directly, or indirectly. We face a cliff that government refuses to acknowledge and their solution will be to grab more power – never reform.

How the Liquidity “Delusion” Leads to a Crash

May 8, 2015

How the Liquidity “Delusion” Leads to a Crash

They were just about all there at the Las Vegas SkyBridge Alternatives Conference, or SALT: Daniel Loeb, T. Boone Pickens, and of course George Papandreou, who in March 2011 as Greek prime minister had produced one of the funniest official Eurozone lies ever when he reassured those that were being shanghaied into bailing out Greece: “We will pay back every penny.”

A couple of thousand others were there, including John Paulson, who made billions after betting against bonds backed by subprime mortgages using credit default swaps. “Hedge fund stars,” the New York Times called them. One of these “stars” was Ben Bernanke who, in his function as Fed Chairman, has done more for these hedge funds stars than anyone else, ever, period.

They all have one thing in common: They’re going to ride this Fed-gravy-train all the way to the end. They’re going to max out this rally in stocks and bonds and real estate and what not, though the oil-price crash has knocked a serious dent into their shiny veneer. And they’re going to add to their gains to the very last minute, fully leveraged, fully aware that this won’t last, totally cognizant that this is artificial and that its end is drawing closer. Then, at the first rate increase or whatever other sign they might see that the gravy train starts derailing, they’ll jump off.

That’s the plan. In this overleveraged market, their twitchy fingers are going to hit the sell button all at once, assuming that there will still be buyers out there, that there will be enough liquidity in the markets to where they can get out without having to pay an extraordinary price, and before everyone else is trying to get out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why the Fed Will Crash the Economy If It Hikes Rates: In Three Charts

May 4, 2015

Why the Fed Will Crash the Economy If It Hikes Rates: In Three Charts

If you’ve been scratching your head since the middle of last year as consumer confidence surveys depicted an optimistic, eager to spend consumer while other hard economic data was showing a sputtering economy, we’re here to put your mind to rest. You’re not crazy. The U.S. economy is dramatically diverging from where most consumers think it is and we have three charts to prove it.

Most Americans have never heard of the Labor Force Participation Rate. Consumers judge the availability of jobs, or lack of them, by the Unemployment Rate that is fed to them in newspaper headlines and TV sound bites monthly. The Unemployment Rate has been coming down nicely and fueling positive vibes among consumers.

Unfortunately, the Labor Force Participation Rate, which measures the number of people who are either employed or actively looking for a job has been hitting historic low numbers, suggesting far more slack in the labor market than captured by the official Unemployment Rate.

On February 4, Jim Clifton, Chairman and CEO of Gallup, told a stunned interviewer at CNBC that he was concerned he might “suddenly disappear” and not make it home that evening if he disputed the reliability of what the U.S. government is reporting as unemployed workers. Clifton’s concerns are essentially based on the fact that consumer confidence and Fed jawboning on when it’s going to hike interest rates to slow down this “strong” U.S. economy before it overheats is about all the U.S. has left in its monetary arsenal.

Clifton had penned an opinion piece on the company’s web site which punctured the rosy spin on the improving jobs market. Clifton wrote:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australia’s Bad Bet on China

April 27, 2015

Australia’s Bad Bet on China

Wolf here: After any bubble, it’s always: “Nobody predicted the crash….” Central bankers don’t see bubbles. They’re not allowed to. At least officially, they don’t see them. And thus they can’t see the implosions coming. They can’t officially see these things because they help create them with their monetary policies.

Industry insiders and their financiers don’t see bubbles either because they get rich off them. Politicians and bureaucrats don’t see them because bubbles make them look good and bring in a lot of moolah.

But people do see the bubbles – which are huge and easy to see – and they do predict their crashes though they might not always get the timing right. Yet, they’re pushed aside and made the most unpopular folks around, and they’re expelled from the herd, and their warnings are ignored. It happens every time. And it happened during the Australian iron-ore bubble, whose spectacular crash suddenly “nobody was predicting.” Ha! Here’s Lindsay David:

By Lindsay David, Australia, author of Print: The Central Bankers Bubble, founder of LF Economics:

Late last week Bloomberg’s James Paton released an article titled, Gina Rinehart says ‘nobody was predicting the ore price crash’

Rinehart, “Australia’s richest woman” and “chairman of Hancock Prospecting,” as the article put it, is not the only mining head, politician, treasury employee, mainstream economist, or Reserve Banker “not” to predict the ore price crash. In fact, unless I am seriously mistaken, none of them saw the price crash coming. But they have indeed ignored all the warnings by those who did predict the crash in the spot price of iron ore.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Another Crisis Is Coming”: Jamie Dimon Warns Of The Next Market Crash

April 10, 2015

“Another Crisis Is Coming”: Jamie Dimon Warns Of The Next Market Crash

Last October’s Treasury flash crash — which Gregg Berman will tell you wasn’t the fault of HFT and which will likely repeat at some point or another thanks to the fact that Fed purchases have reduced market depth — may no longer be a once every three billion year occurrence as statistics would dictate, Jamie Dimon observes, in his latest letter to JPM shareholders, before suggesting that the event “should make you question statistics.” Amusingly, Dimon seems to confuse cause and effect a bit, as it’s really not the fault of “statistics” per se, but rather the fault of shifting market dynamics (and by “dynamics” we mean increased manipulation and never-before-seen distortions and dislocations) that have rendered the old statistical models obsolete. But at least Dimon sees the event, and recent similar shakeups in FX markets for what they are: “warning shots across the bow.” Here’s Dimon:

Recent activity in the Treasury markets and the currency markets is a warning shot across the bow

Treasury markets were quite turbulent in the spring and summer of 2013, when the Fed hinted that it soon would slow its asset purchases. Then on one day, October 15, 2014, Treasury securities moved 40 basis points, statistically 7 to 8 standard deviations – an unprecedented move – an event that is supposed to happen only once in every 3 billion years or so (the Treasury market has only been around for 200 years or so – of course, this should make you question statistics to begin with).Some currencies recently have had similar large moves. Importantly, Treasuries and major country currencies are considered the most standardized and liquid financial instruments in the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Birth Pangs Of The Coming Great Depression

February 3, 2015

Birth Pangs Of The Coming Great Depression

The signs of the times are everywhere – all you have to do is open up your eyes and look at them. When a pregnant woman first goes into labor, the birth pangs are usually fairly moderate and are not that close together. But as the time for delivery approaches, they become much more frequent and much more intense. Economically, what we are experiencing right now are birth pangs of the coming Great Depression. As we get closer to the crisis that is looming on the horizon, they will become even more powerful. This week, we learned that the Baltic Dry Index has fallen to the lowest level that we have seen in 29 years. The Baltic Dry Index also crashed during the financial collapse of 2008, but right now it is already lower than it was at any point during the last financial crisis. In addition, “Dr. Copper” and other industrial commodities continue to plunge. This almost always happens before we enter an economic downturn. Meanwhile, as I mentioned the other day, orders for durable goods are declining. This is also a traditional indicator that a recession is approaching. The warning signs are there – we just have to be open to what they are telling us.

And of course there are so many more parallels between past economic downturns and what is happening right now.

For example, volatility has returned to the markets in a big way. On Tuesday the Dow was down about 300 points, on Wednesday it was down another couple hundred points, and then on Thursday it was up a couple hundred points.

This is precisely how markets behave just before they crash. When markets are calm, they tend to go up. When markets get really choppy and start behaving erratically, that tells us that a big move down is usually coming.

At the same time, almost every major global currency is imploding. For much more on this, see the amazing charts in this article.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Serious Political Changes in the Wind for Germany | Armstrong Economics

October 21, 2014

Serious Political Changes in the Wind for Germany | Armstrong Economics.

I have warned that economics changes everything. When there is a boom, people are fat and happy and war declines. When the economy crashes, you are faced with a serious problem. Either we will move to the extreme left and see a return of authoritarian states as we are moving toward, or we can swing back to freedom and democracy if we truly identify the cause.

Governments will seek to blame the rich for then they will get to confiscate all wealth and they will promise security to the mindless masses. History repeats in this manner. Even Sparta v Athens was an ancient virtual communist state v democracy. You cannot even purchase ancient coins from Sparta because they refused to even issue money.

…click on the link above to read the rest of the article…

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