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As the economy continues to implode, capital flight rises.

As the saying goes, if you want to know what’s really going on, follow the money. That catchphrase doesn’t just apply to foreign companies and investors backing out of China. It also applies to the Chinese economy.A No-Confidence Vote

In the midst of widespread economic duress and growing social disruption, following the money trail shows how Chinese investors are voting with their wallets. Consumer spending is down, and the savings rate is up. Capital is flowing out of China any way it can, and it all amounts to a definite no-confidence vote for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).The CCP Tries to Hide the Facts

In true CCP fashion, the state puts the blame for its failed policies on those who point them out. Anyone who mentions the crumbling economy, for example, is guilty of endangering financial stability. Even though the CCP would consider prosecuting journalists and economists who report accurately about the falling employment numbers and the high debt levels that plague local governments, China’s worsening economic conditions are too dramatic and widespread to hide.

Of course, financial stability isn’t threatened by people talking about it. It’s the CCP that’s destroying the economy. Even recent history shows that the less involved the Party is in the economy, the better it performs.

The property market and the development sector are perfect examples, although not the only ones. Both continue to be heavily manipulated by the CCP, and both are hemorrhaging value, as financial ruin in flagship companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden contribute to deteriorating conditions in the wider economy. Completed projects that remain unsold are being demolished, work on existing projects is being halted, and other development plans are being canceled, even as the development companies owe billions to creditors.…click on the above link to read the rest…

Seven Possible Causes of the Next Financial Crisis

September 14, 2021

Seven Possible Causes of the Next Financial Crisis

The great financial historian, Charles Kindleberger, pointed out in the 1970s that over several centuries, history showed there was a financial crisis about once every ten years. His observation still holds. In every decade since his classic Manias, Panics and Crashes of 1978, such crises have indeed continued to erupt in their turn, in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and again in 2020. What could cause the next crisis in this long, recurring series? I suggest seven possibilities:

1. What Nobody Sees Coming

A notable headline from 2017 was “Yellen: I Don’t See a Financial Crisis Coming in Our Lifetimes.” The then-head of the Federal Reserve was right that she didn’t see it coming; nonetheless, well within her and our lifetimes, a new financial crisis arrived in 2020, from unexpected causes.

It has been well said that “The riskiest stuff is what you don’t see coming.” Especially risky is what you don’t think is possible, but happens anyway.

About the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09, a former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve candidly observed: “Not only didn’t we see it coming,” but in the midst of it, “had trouble understanding what was happening.” Similarly, “Central banks and regulators failed to see the bust coming, just as they failed to anticipate its potential magnitude,” as another top central banking expert wrote.

The next financial crisis could be the same—we may take another blindside hit for a big financial sack.

In his memoir of the 2007-09 crisis, former Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson wrote, “We had no choice but to fly by the seat of our pants, making it up as we went along.” If the next financial crisis is again triggered by what we don’t see coming, the government reactions will once again be flying by the seat of their pants, making it up as they go along.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold Prices Will Keep Rising Because Crash Conditions Are Becoming Obvious

September 8, 2019

Gold Prices Will Keep Rising Because Crash Conditions Are Becoming Obvious

The price movements of precious metals are difficult for some people to understand. In the world of equities, investors are mesmerized by tickers day in and day out, and market movements occur minute by minute. This realm of investment teaches people to shorten their memories, their attention spans and their patience. In the world of gold and silver, however, investors buy and sell according to cycles that last years – oftentimes decades. It is the complete antithesis to stocks.

This is why gold catches a lot of ignorant criticism at times. The “barbaric relic” does not behave the way day traders want it to behave. It sleeps, they ignore it or laugh at it, and then it explodes. It is not surprising that your average stock market player is usually caught completely off guard when an economic crisis hits Main Street, while the average gold investor already saw the event coming many months in advance. The gold mentality lends itself to caution, observation and historical relevance. The stock market mentality lends itself to carelessness and the denial of history.

I would acknowledge here that there is plenty of evidence of paper market manipulation of gold and silver to the downside by major banks like JP Morgan. Any investor in metals should take this into account. However, it is also important to realize that in moments of economic uncertainty, the physical market can and does overtake paper manipulation, and prices rise anyway. This is exactly what happened in the lead up to the 2008 crash, and it’s happening again today.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

‘Exactly What I Was Worried About’: Warren Warns New Big Bank Merger Will Increase Risk of Another Crash

February 9, 2019

‘Exactly What I Was Worried About’: Warren Warns New Big Bank Merger Will Increase Risk of Another Crash

“We can’t let banks become too big to fail again: American families will suffer.”

“Gigantic banks wrecked our economy, but the Fed told me they are rubber-stamping nearly every proposed bank merger,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wrote on Twitter. (Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

In response to news that SunTrust and BB&T are attempting to merge in a deal that would create the sixth largest bank in the United States, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) declared that this is precisely the kind of financial sector consolidation she was warning about last year as congressional Democrats and Republicans teamed up to ram through a major bank deregulation bill.

“Two of the country’s biggest banks—SunTrust and BB&T—are merging to form one of the biggest banks in the country. That’s exactly what I was worried about a year ago after Congress passed its big bank deregulation bill,” wrote the Massachusetts senator and likely 2020 presidential candidate, referring to the legislation that critics took to calling the “Bank Lobbyist Act.”

As Common Dreams reported, 17 Senate Democrats and 33 House Democrats voted for the legislation, which President Donald Trump signed into law last year.

Warren went on to express concern that the merger—which, if approved, would be the largest since the 2008 financial crisis—could set the stage for another economic meltdown.

“Gigantic banks wrecked our economy, but the Fed told me they are rubber-stamping nearly every proposed bank merger,” Warren wrote on Friday. “SunTrust and BB&T are probably next. We can’t let banks become too big to fail again: American families will suffer.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Now Even Paul Krugman Of The New York Times Is Admitting That The Next Crisis Will Likely Be Worse Than 2008

November 28, 2018

Now Even Paul Krugman Of The New York Times Is Admitting That The Next Crisis Will Likely Be Worse Than 2008

There is a growing consensus that once the next economic crash finally arrives that it will be significantly worse than what we experienced in 2008. This is something that I have been saying for a very long time, but now even mainstream economists such as Paul Krugman of the New York Times are admitting the reality of what we are facing. And without a doubt, the stage is set for a historic collapse. We are living at a time when everything is in a bubble – the current housing bubble is much larger than the one that collapsed in 2008, student loan debt has now surpassed the 1.5 trillion dollar mark, corporate debt has doubled since the last financial crisis, U.S. consumers are 13 trillion dollars in debt and the federal government is nearly 22 trillion dollars in debt. And even though stock prices have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, the truth is that stocks are still wildly overpriced. What goes up must eventually come down, and Paul Krugman insists that we “are poorly prepared to deal with the next shock” and that “there’s good reason to think it will be worse”…

“We are poorly prepared to deal with the next shock,” Krugman said. “Interest rates are still close to zero in the US and in most of the rest of the advanced world. The fiscal policy we did was badly handled in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, and there’s no particular reason to think it will be better. In fact, there’s good reason to think it will be worse.”

Hmmm.

Where have I heard talk like that before?

You know that it is very late in the game when even Paul Krugman can see what is coming.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Politicians Are Creating the Worst Economic Crash in History

November 1, 2018

How Politicians Are Creating the Worst Economic Crash in History

Politicians have totally and completely misunderstood the trends within the global economy and as a result, they are actually creating one of the worst economic debacles in history. I have explained several times that the bulk of investment capital is tied up in two primary sectors – (1) government bonds and (2) real estate. Because of income taxes, real estate has offered a way to make money in capital gains without having to pay income taxes.

Money has looked to park in real estate around the world for many various different reasons as in Italy it was the escape from inheritance taxes as well as banks or in Vancouver to gain a foothold for residency fleeing Hong Kong. In Australia, there was the Super Annuation Fund which allowed people to use retirement funds for real estate. In New Zealand, the new government wanted to declare foreign investment just illegal and in Australia, they made it a criminal act for a foreigner to own property and not inform the government they were foreigners. Over in London, they imposed taxes on property which created a crash.

People spend more when they believe that they have big profits in their home. The recession of 2007-2010 was so bad recording the worst of all declines since the Great Depression all BECAUSE it undermined the real estate values. People then spent less because they viewed their home declined in value. As taxes have been rising and the average home value collapsed, the velocity of money kept declining. Especially as real estate values declined and interest on savings accounts vanished hurting the elderly who saved money for retirement and discovered their savings were producing less income, the velocity of money just plummeted. The velocity of money began to turn up finally in the USA ONLYwhen interest rates began to rise.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: The Next Economic Crash Will Be “Far More Painful” Than The 2008 Recession

October 15, 2018

Peter Schiff: The Next Economic Crash Will Be “Far More Painful” Than The 2008 Recession

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff is sounding the alarm after this week’s market selloff, saying Wall Street and the U.S. economy are on the verge of a recession.

“I think as Americans lose their jobs, they are going to see the cost of living going up rather dramatically, and so this is going to make it particularly painful,” Schiff said.

“This is a bubble not just in the stock market, but the entire economy,” he told Fox News Business.

Schiff is predicting a recession, accompanied by rising consumer prices, that will be “far more painful” than the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

As SHTFplan.com’s Mac Slavo notes, President Donald Trump blamed the recent stock market woes on the Federal Reserve and the rising of interest rates.

“I think the Fed is making a mistake. They’re so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” Trump told reporters on his way to a rally in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.

Trump said that the United States’ central bank is solely responsible for the worst stock market selloff since February, saying the Federal Reserve “has gone crazy.”

Schiff said it isn’t entirely the Fed’s fault, however, because they have been acting “irrationally” for a very long time while slowly adding nails to the economy’s coffin.

“What is crazy is for the Fed to believe that they can raise interest rates without pricking their own bubble,” he said.

“All bear markets start off as corrections. I think this one is probably a bear market. It’s long overdue,” Schiff said on FOX News Business.

Schiff said investors are on the edge of a precipice that foresees a bear market far worse than the stock market crash of 2008.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Summer Of Disappointments Will Lead To An Extended Economic Crash

May 24, 2018

A Summer Of Disappointments Will Lead To An Extended Economic Crash

The summer season is often about renewed hope and revelry in comfort, and this goes for economic comfort as much as anything else. In parallel to the old tale of The Ant And The Grasshopper, we are all tempted to act like the grasshopper, forget about the trials and tribulations of the world and take a vacation from awareness.

I am seeing quite a lot of this in the past month as mounting global tensions appear to have subsided. But appearances can be deceiving…

I am reminded of the summer of 2008 when those of us in alternative economic analysis were warning of the overwhelming evidence of a debt based deflationary disaster. There seemed to be widespread complacency back then as well. September finally struck and reality began to sink in, and the rest is a history we are still dealing with to this day. Right now, economic optimism is desperately clinging to news headlines rather than data fundamentals, but this can just as easily sink markets as it can keep them artificially afloat.

Consider the numerous powder keg events coming our way over the next few months and what they will mean for economic sentiment if they go the wrong way.

Federal Reserve Meeting June 12-13

The next week will be packed with public statements from various Fed officials which may hint at how aggressive the central bank will be for the rest of the year in its tightening program. However, I think I can guess rather easily what they will do. The Fed has been sticking to its policy of interest rate hikes and balance sheet cuts as I predicted they would for the past couple years. Nothing has changed under new Fed chairman Jerome Powell.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Donald Trump and the Next Crash: Making the Fed an Instrument for Disaster

April 27, 2018

Donald Trump and the Next Crash: Making the Fed an Instrument for Disaster

Photo by futureatlas.com | CC BY 2.0

Warning: What you are about to read is not about Russia, the 2016 election, or the latest person to depart from the White House in a storm of tweets. It’s the Beltway story hiding in plain sight with trillions of dollars in play and an economy to commandeer.

While we’ve been bombarded with a litany of scandals from the Oval Office and the Trump family, there’s a crucial institution in Washington that few in the media seem to be paying attention to, even as President Trump quietly makes it his own. More obscure than the chambers of the Supreme Court, it’s a place where he has already made substantial changes. I’m talking about the Federal Reserve.

As the central bank of the United States, the “Fed” sets the financial tone for the global economy by manipulating interest rate levels. This impacts everyone, yet very few grasp the scope of its influence.

During times of relative economic calm, the Fed is regularly forgotten. But what history shows us is that having leaders who are primed to neglect Wall Street’s misdoings often sets the scene for economic dangers to come. That’s why nominees to the Fed are so crucial.

We have entered a landmark moment: no president since Woodrow Wilson (during whose administration the Federal Reserve was established) will have appointed as many board members to the Fed as Donald Trump. His fingerprints will, in other words, not just be on Supreme Court decisions, but no less significantly Fed policy-making for years to come — even though, like that court, it occupies a mandated position of political independence.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Global Economy’s Wile E. Coyote Moment

March 11, 2018

The Global Economy’s Wile E. Coyote Moment

Economies and markets may already be plunging off a cliff.

Always behind.
Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Our prediction last year of a global growth downturn was based on our 20-Country Long Leading Index, which, in 2016, foresaw the synchronized global growth upturn that the consensus only started to recognize around the spring of 2017.

With the synchronized global growth upturn in the rearview mirror, the downturn is no longer a forecast, but is now a fact.

The chart below shows that quarter-over-quarter annualized gross domestic product growth rates in the three largest advanced economies — the U.S., the euro zone, and Japan — have turned down. In all three, GDP growth peaked in the second or third quarter of 2017, and fell in the fourth quarter. This is what the start of a synchronized global growth downswing looks like.

Still, the groupthink on the synchronized global growth upturn is so pervasive that nobody seemed to notice that South Korea’s GDP contracted in the fourth quarter of 2017, partly due to the biggest drop in its exports in 33 years. And that news came as the country was in the spotlight as host of the winter Olympics.

Because it’s so export-dependent, South Korea is often a canary in the coal mine of global growth. So, when the Asian nation experiences slower growth — let alone negative growth — it’s a yellow flag for the global economy.

The international slowdown is becoming increasingly obvious from the widely followed economic indicators. The most popular U.S. measures seem to present more of a mixed bag. Yet, as we pointed out late last year, the bond market, following the U.S. Short Leading Index, started sniffing out the U.S. slowdown months ago. Specifically, the quality spread — the difference between the yields on junk bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds — has been widening for several months.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ECONOMIC CRASH LIKELY? Stock Market Insanity & Risk Reaching Nose-Bleed Levels

February 3, 2018

ECONOMIC CRASH LIKELY? Stock Market Insanity & Risk Reaching Nose-Bleed Levels

With the Dow Jones Index falling 665 points today, the risk of a large market correction has just increased significantly. Ironically, I discussed the very indicators that were setting up for a huge market correction in my newest video which I recorded on Tuesday. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to get the video posted on my Youtube channel on Friday morning and now on my website until late in the evening.

Regardless, the 665 point decline is just the beginning. Oh sure, we could see a continued selloff and then a move towards 27,000 or even higher. But, for the stock market to move up to 27,000 or 30,000 means absolutely nothing. Well, maybe it provided investors with a brief feeling of higher wealth until the markets really crashed.

In my newest video, I provide some fundamental analysis and indicators of why the Stock Market is reaching totally unsustainable levels. Also, I discuss what would happen with the gold and silver price during a big market correction. And, it resembled what happened today in the markets. The gold and silver price will initially selloff because most trades are done via algorithms. Thus, when the markets crack by 665 points in one day, it does damage all across the board.

Furthermore, the gold and silver price are based on their commodity-price mechanism… and this is the cost of production. So, if the price of oil declines, so will the gold and silver price… FOR A SHORT WHILE. However, after the initial selloff, I see both gold and silver moving higher as the broader markets continue to decline.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

India’s Economy Crashes After “Mind-Bogglingly Inane” Tax System Strikes Back

August 3, 2017

India’s Economy Crashes After “Mind-Bogglingly Inane” Tax System Strikes Back

With just a hint of schadenfreude, we note that, following our discussion of “how to destroy an economy”, India’s Composite PMI collapsed to 46.0 in July – its lowest on record (well below the kneejerk lows after demonetization in November) as the “mind-bogglingly inane” new tax system and demonetization efforts continue to crush the poor and feed the wealthy.

As Goldman Sachs notes India’s Nikkei Markit services PMI contracted in July after reaching a 8-month high in June, following a decline of manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. The fall was led by a significant decline in new business, suggesting a worsened business sentiment after the GST implementation on July 1.

Main points:

India’s Nikkei Markit services PMI contracted to 45.9 (the lowest reading since September 2013). Combined with the manufacturing PMI reported on Tuesday, the July composite PMI fell to 46.0, the lowest reading since March 2009.
Among subcomponents, the new business index fell the most to 45.2 (from 53.3 in June), reflecting disruptions caused by the GST.
As the press release from Markit Economics mentioned, “Most of the contraction was attributed to the implementation of the goods & services tax and the confusion it caused”.
The employment index for services fell to 48.9 (from 51.8 in June).
That said, the index for business expectations rose to a 11-month high to 62.3, suggesting optimism from services providers about the future once they have more clarity about the new tax system.
The output price index rose to 54.6 (from 51.0 in June), while the input price index moderated to 51.7.
Overall, PMI data for July suggest a significant drag on new business activity post the GST implementation. That said, optimism expressed by both manufacturers and services providers about the future is encouraging and suggest a potential improvement in activity once businesses adjust to the new tax system.

From 8-month highs to record lows… why does any one put any faith in the useless ‘soft’ surveys?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Can Anyone Really Save The Economy in a Crash?

May 1, 2017

Can Anyone Really Save The Economy in a Crash?

1998-ltcm-contagion

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Did anyone ever save the world financial system during the 1998 Crash or the 2008 Crash?Also, you said that government will never heed the advice of anyone. You worked on Capitol Hill and testified before Congress and was called upon to form the G5. Yet you say it is impossible to prevent anything for it always crash and burn. Then anyone who claims they saved the economy or markets cannot be telling the truth. Care to comment?

ANSWER: Back in 1985 when I was called upon with the birth of the G5, it taught me a lesson. They will call people in to PRETEND they have consulted experts, but it is just a dog & pony show. They already predetermined what they will do and absolutely nobody can step up and advise them to prevent any such crash. Absolutely no government will ever take a precautionary action in such a manner. Government only responds to events – they do not prevent them.

There is absolutely nobody who can save the markets or economy in the middle of a crash – NOBODY! Why? Because these type of events are global contagions. First of all, in this case of 1998, it was a contagion that began in Russia and because they could not sell Russian assets, they sold every other market to raise cash to cover losses in Russia. So I fail to see how any person or any single country could stop a crash that is a global contagion. It would require quick action by a single entity that has global power. That does not exist!

Yes, in 1985 they called upon several analysts to pretend they listened to us but nobody directed them to create the G5. I wrote to President Reagan back then detailing why the G5 would increase volatility and fail.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When This All Blows Up…

March 11, 2017

Shutterstock

When This All Blows Up…

Understanding the how & when of the next economic crash

This report marks the end of a series of three big trains of thought. The first explained how we’re living through the Mother Of All Financial Bubbles. The next detailed the Great Wealth Transfer that is now underway, siphoning our wealth into the pockets of an elite few.

This concluding report predicts how these deleterious and unsustainable trends will inevitably ‘resolve’ (which is a pleasant way of saying ‘blow up’.)

The Ka-POOM Theory

In terms how this will all end, we favor the scenario put forth by Eric Janszen in 1998 called the Ka-POOM theory.

This theory rests on the belief that the Federal Reserve along with the other world central banks looked at Japan’s several decades of economic stagnation and decided that deflationary recessions are to be avoided at all costs — even if that means blowing asset bubbles and then cleaning up the destruction left behind in their aftermath.

Because the Fed, et al. have a limited playbook (which is: print, and then print some more), the Ka-POOM model calls for limited periods of disinflation, followed by massive money printing sprees that then produce high inflation.

Despite the trillions and trillions in thin-air money printed by the world’s central banks over the past 8 years, a common rebuttal we hear is “But there’s been no inflation so far!” To which I reply, “Yes, that’s what we’re being told. But that’s not actually true.”

Remember: inflation is simply “too much money chasing too few goods.” We can detect today’s excess of money in the rising prices in our cost of living — but those higher prices are symptoms, not causes. Inflation is not “higher prices”. Inflation is “too much money”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Robert Kiyosaki And Harry Dent Warn That Financial Armageddon Is Imminent

March 31, 2016

Robert Kiyosaki And Harry Dent Warn That Financial Armageddon Is Imminent

Financial experts Robert Kiyosaki and Harry Dent are both warning that the next major economic crash is in our very near future. Dent is projecting that the Dow will fall to “5,500 to 6,000 by late 2017″, and Kiyosaki actually originally projected that a great crash was coming in 2016 all the way back in 2002. Of course we don’t exactly have to wait for things to get bad. The truth is that things are not really very good at the moment by any stretch of the imagination. Approximately one-third of all Americans don’t make enough money to even cover the basic necessities, 23 percent of adults in their prime working years are not employed, and corporate debt defaults have exploded to the highest level that we have seen since the last financial crisis. But if Kiyosaki and Dent are correct, economic conditions in this country will soon get much, much worse than this.

During a recent interview, Harry Dent really went out on a limb by staking his entire reputation on a prediction that we would experience “the biggest global bubble burst in history” within the next four years…

There will be… and I will stake my entire reputation on this… we are going to see the biggest global bubble burst in history in the next four years…

There’s only one way out of this bubble and that is for it to burst… all this stuff is going to reset back to where it should be without all this endless debt, endless printed money, stimulus and zero interest rate policy.

And of course he is far from alone. Without a doubt, we are currently in the terminal phases of the greatest financial bubble the world has ever known, and it is exceedingly difficult to see any way that it will not end very, very badly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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