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It has been a bitterly cold season. Niagara Falls became a winter wonderland as frigid temperatures cause the falls to turn to ice. This is not so rare as people claim. In this 1911 photo of the Great Freeze, you can still see water flowing, but minimal and nowhere near the normal volume flow (hundreds of thousands of gallons per second) that we see in summer. Niagara Falls was a famous tourist spot. I remember as a child my parents traveling there to see the splendor. It use to be a big honeymooners’ destination before air travel. Historically, Niagara Falls does “freeze” but it is extremely rare to “completely” freeze.

The Falls have a lot of ice on them today during this bitterly cold winter. But they have not reach the historic cold period at the beginning of the 20th century. Still, cyclically speaking, it is right on time. The gold we have witnessed so far is ideally going to peak probably around 2023. Perhaps at that point in time we will see the falls also almost freeze completely. The only recorded incident of the Niagara Falls completely freezing so NO WATER flowed appeared to be 1848. That was the only documented incident on record when Niagara Falls was frozen completely during March of 1848. It was the Buffalo Express Newspaper that reported the shocking complete freeze was caused by ice damming at the mouth of Lake Erie. Our model indicates that if we see colder temperature BEYOND2023, then cyclically the peak will unfold in 2037.

How To Put Measures Together to Weatherproof Food and Water in Winter

December 25, 2018

How To Put Measures Together to Weatherproof Food and Water in Winter

Over the course of the past few years and several winters past, I have written articles on the importance of water supplies and food during the winter months when traveling. The bottom line is that most of us are in a vehicle and/or away from home much of the day, whether winter or summer. Winter is a little different, as it poses challenges and perils that are not necessarily addressed as easily as in the warmer months.

In those articles, I stressed the importance of a thermos during the winter to carry (at a bare minimum) hot water. I recommend the water over coffee for several reasons. First, coffee is a diuretic, and this means that an excessive amount will cause you to lose water through urination. If you drink as much coffee as I do, it is not so much an issue there, as your body will compensate with the increased intake. Secondly and more importantly, you can do more with a thermos of hot water than you can with coffee.

Hot water can be used for soup (think “Vitamin R,” as we called it in the Army or Ramen), and if you are the way I am…you can pack either a jar or a Tupperware container with instant coffee. The hot water is invaluable to restore your core temperature if you need to do so. One thermos is good, and two is even better. Be sure to insulate your thermos, at a bare minimum by wrapping a heavy blanket around it. I have two old sweatshirt sleeves, very thick. The wide part goes over the top and to the bottom, folded, and the other sleeve wide part over the bottom, and up to the top. Voila! Just this little measure extends the heating time/life of the thermos by about 4-6 hours. No, really: it works.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weather Channel Declares November Coldest in 50 years

December 10, 2018

Weather Channel Declares November Coldest in 50 years

The Weather Channel just declared that North America just had its most extensive November snow cover in at least a Half-Century. We really face Global Cooling as this is now the third winter which this is becoming the colder with each passing year. It is serious that the emphasis on Global Warming is distracting society to such an extent that we are making no preparation whatsoever to stockpile food reserves which is what we should be doing. As a former hedge fund manager, the best way to always maintain your performance is to assume you are always wrong. That forces you to have Plan B and Plan C with key lines that when crossed you are compelled to take action. We should be stockpiling food as a HEDGE right now. The worst outcome is the Global Cooling trend is wrong, then you have excess food to sell off. Best case is you survive a downturn.

From a timing perspective, if we see next year get colder than this year, that will CONFIRM this is going to get much worse before it will get warm again and that first uptick may not take place until 2026. The computer is showing a commodity rally will arrive after 2020.

Coldest December on Record in China

December 10, 2018

Coldest December on Record in China

China is also experiencing the coldest day record during December 6 below zero C. Snow is falling in Beijing to Shanghai. It has been in the 70s in Abu Dhabi and in Tampa Florida, so the cold is dipping lower and lower across the planet. Temperatures in China have been held under 4 below zero C on only seven December days since 2000. This is the coldest on record so far. The real question becomes when will people start noticing that the summers are dry and short with the winters getting colder?

Coldest Thanksgiving In 150 Years As Northeast Hit By “Siberian” Temperatures

November 22, 2018

Coldest Thanksgiving In 150 Years As Northeast Hit By “Siberian” Temperatures

Most of the Northeastern United States feels like Siberia right now due to a blast of Arctic air that is pushing temperatures 15 to 25 degrees colder below trend. As a result, people spending time outdoors during Thanksgiving Day into Black Friday may face some of the coldest conditions on record in the northeastern United States for late November

The cold weather will be supplied by a burst of arctic air that produced locally blinding snow squalls across parts of the interior Northeast on Wednesday. The squalls diminished to spotty flurries south and east of the Appalachians.

“Anomalously cold weather will impact the I-95 corridor Thursday and Friday. Record low temperatures have already been broken Thursday morning across New England, and record low maximum temperatures are expected in many cities Thursday. This combined with winds gusting 15-30 mph will make it feel below zero at times through Friday morning,” said Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting.

Temperatures during Thanksgiving morning started off near zero Fahrenheit in northern New England and near 30 in southeastern Virginia. Highs are forecast to range from the teens in the northern tier of Maine to the upper 30s in the lower Chesapeake Bay region. However, AccuWeather RealFeel Temperatures throughout the Northeast will be 10 to 20 degrees lower than the actual temperature which will put levels well below zero at times across the north and in the single digits and teens in Virginia.

According to Accuweather, over the past 150 years or so, the bulk of the frigid Thanksgivings occurred during the mid-1800s to near the turn of the 20th Century. In New York City, there have been less than a handful of Thanksgiving days with a forecast morning low in the teens F and a high in the 20s, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Layering Clothes Effectively To Stay Warm Outside In Winter

November 15, 2018

Layering Clothes Effectively To Stay Warm Outside In Winter

Layering your clothing is one of the best ways to stay warm. Anyone who works outside or has chores around the house to take care of in the winter months understands the importance of keeping the body warm so it can operate at optimal levels.

Layering your clothing comes with many benefits, including the ability to remove one or two items of clothing if you begin to feel a bit warm and overdressed. This makes you more prepared for any possible weather outcome, writes Mountain Warehouse. When you’re doing a combination of activities such as standing, walking, sitting, going outside and inside and back outside again, your body regulates its temperature very differently. This is ideal for people who do a lot of their chores outdoors! Layering allows you to be comfortable throughout the day as your body temperature and activity level change.

But just how does this technique work to keep a person warm? Layering clothing works by trapping warm air created by your own body heat in between the many layers of clothing. That trapped warm air acts like a layer of insulation for your body. Especially in winter, because that’s when it’s much colder, keeping your core warm is a key to good health, because this is the area that generates heat for your vital organs. Those organs need your body heat to function properly.

The University of Health Services in Madison Wisconsin writes that the basics of layering include four layers.

Base: a thin layer that fits your body. It works to wick away any sweat and moisture that would otherwise suck up your body heat.
Mid: your normal outfit, whether that’s a long sleeved shirt or sweater.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Nat Gas Prices Spike On Cold Weather

November 9, 2018

Nat Gas Prices Spike On Cold Weather

Natural gas prices are sharply up as cold weather is set to sweep much of the country, putting a strain on already low storage levels.

We are heading into the winter season with natural gas inventories at their lowest level in 15 years. Natural gas inventories stood at 3,143 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending on October 26, or about 623 Bcf lower than at this point last year and 638 Bcf below the five-year average.

(Click to enlarge)

As the chart shows, natural gas inventories ebb and flow with the seasons – drawing down in the winter as American households crank up the heat, and rising again in warmer months as demand slows.

This year has been an interesting one for gas markets. U.S. production continues to break records, with surging output in the Marcellus and Utica shales, as well as skyrocketing gas production in West Texas as Permian drillers pull out gas along with crude oil.

However, higher levels of gas exports in the form of LNG, higher power burn in gas-fired power plants for electricity, and higher demand for gas in petrochemicals and other industrial uses have all led to structural increases in demand. Add to that the seasonal factors – hot temperatures this summer, which stretched into fall, and now, a coming blast of cold weather. In many parts of the country, autumn seemed a little shorter than usual, sandwiched between a long summer and a rapidly approaching winter.

Tight inventories and a bout of cold weather led Henry Hub natural gas prices to jump at the start of November by nearly 8 percent. In fact, prices jumped $0.28/MMBtu on November 5, the largest daily increase in two years. At $3.50 per million Btu (MMBtu), natural gas spot prices are up 15 percent in the past two months, and they are also at their highest level since last January.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cold Snap Could Send Natural Gas To $5

October 31, 2018

Cold Snap Could Send Natural Gas To $5

The natural gas market is looking rather tight, even as U.S. production continues to set new records.

Inventories fell sharply last winter, leaving the country a little light on stocks heading into injection season. That did not concern the market much, with record-setting production expected to replenish depleted inventories.

However, the past six months has not led to surging stockpiles, and inventories replenished at a much slower rate than expected. We are about to enter the winter heating season with inventories at their lowest level in 15 years. For the week ending on October 19, the U.S. held 3,095 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas in storage, or 606 bcf lower than at this point last year, and 624 bcf below the five-year average.

(Click to enlarge)

The reason for this is multifaceted, with seasonal weather playing a role, but also structural increases in demand. “Hot summer weather, LNG liquefaction demand, exports to Mexico, and the industrial sector have all mitigated the impact from a 8.7 bcf/d YoY production growth surge this summer,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a recent note. Low inventories and potential deliverability risks led the investment bank to hike its price forecast for the first quarter of 2019 to $4 per MMBtu, up from a prior estimate of just $3.40/MMBtu.

Coal shutdowns have led to a lot of fuel switching. Moreover, new gas-fired power plants have opened up and continue to do so. The U.S. also became a sizable LNG exporter in 2016, and exports will continue to climb in the years ahead with more terminals coming online. New pipeline interconnections with Mexico should also lead to more shipments from Texas to the U.S.’ southern neighbor.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia’s Wheat Crop Fails?

April 30, 2018

Russia’s Wheat Crop Fails?

The weather turned very cold this year as our computer has been forecasting. The importance of our model’s forecasts lies in determining what will be the next cycle focus. Each cycle tends to shift from one to the next sector. While we still risk a strong dollar rally into 2020 creating the economic recession through deflation as assets decline, the next 8.6-year cycle appears to be setting up to be a commodity cycle. As the climate changes to bitter cold, we have warned this is when FAMINE and DISEASE rise. The flu season is always when it turns cold – not warm.

It is important to keep an eye on the climate cycle and prepare for the next real bull market. This year, the wheat crop in Russia has failed because of the bitter cold with even April coming in as the coldest in more than 140 years. The people who want to believe in global warming are so enamored with this idea mixing up pollution with climate change that they fail to see the trend coming. As crops fail with colder winters, food supplies will decline and prices will rise. So look for the next 8.6-year Economic Confidence Model Wave to bring higher prices in food.

Why Natural Gas Prices Will Rise This Summer

March 28, 2018

Why Natural Gas Prices Will Rise This Summer

Record production of natural gas is snuffing out any price rally that might have occurred from the bout of cold weather this winter.

The gas market saw a jolt at the end of December and in early January due to extremely cold temperatures across much of the U.S. This winter was about 13 percent colder than last year, which pushed up residential and commercial gas demand by 3.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to Barclays.

At the same time, demand continues to grind higher on a structural basis, with more LNG exports leaving U.S. shores and more utilities burning gas for electricity. That led to a sharp drawdown in gas inventories, pushing them 16 percent below the five-year average in the first quarter.

Nevertheless, the price impact was muted. In the past, sever cold snaps have led to sharp price spikes. While that happened in regional spot markets, the price increases were very short-term and nothing like the price increases during the 2014 Polar Vortex. After the cold subsided, Henry Hub spot prices fell back below $3/MMBtu.

Gas traders are so sanguine because the U.S. is producing more natural gas than ever. And 2018 is shaping up to be a record year for new gas output. A mild streak during February eased some pressure on inventories as well.

As a result, the U.S. will likely see “heavy” gas injections during the second quarter, according to Barclays. The bank expects gas inventories to rise at a pace that is 1 Bcf/d higher than last year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UK Gas Crisis: Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Fire

March 14, 2018

UK Gas Crisis: Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Fire

For the ministers and officials assembled, it was an embarrassment all around.

Late last week, as we were at the annual Windsor Energy Consultation (WEC) just outside London, British Gas Plc confirmed that the nation was facing a natural gas shortage as freezing temperatures grip the country.

You see, blizzards, strong winds, drifting snow, and bitter cold recently brought Britain to a standstill as the weather system nicknamed the “Beast from the East” combined with winter storm “Emma” to create some of the most testing weather the U.K. has had to face in years.

Now, I can attest first hand that this cold snap was not something to take lightly.

As a regular attendee of the Windsor Energy Consultation over the past decade, a visit that includes spending three days each year at the royal residence, I know that Windsor Castle can be drafty in any weather.

But this time around, it was positively frigid.

“Frosty” Windsor Castle grounds (St. George’s Chapel on the left), March 2, 2018; photo: Bill Arnold

And nationwide, this “big freeze” has brought to light a very serious problem.

And it’s one that is only getting worse…

Bitter Cold Adds (Further) Fuel to the Flames

The unfolding gas crisis has brought about a renewed immediacy to a major political issue that has been percolating in the U.K. for some time now.

You see, for the third year in a row, a portion of my two briefings (one to the plenary meeting; one to the ambassadors), was devoted to the growing global need for a new “energy balance.”

Simply put, that balance involves two related advances.

The first is an expansion in the number of reliable (and distinct) energy sources. The second addresses the extent to which these sources provide a genuine interchangeable network of availability from such sources.

The rise of renewable sources (solar, wind, biofuel, even geothermal) has been the most visible manifestation of the developing balance. But the crucial element to remember is the balance nature of it all.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ukraine Freezes After Russia Halts Gas Deliveries

March 4, 2018

Ukraine Freezes After Russia Halts Gas Deliveries

Last week, Russia’s state-run gas giant and quasi-monopolist when it comes to European natgas supplies, Gazprom, announced it would not restart shipments of natural gas to Ukraine’s Naftogaz starting March 1 after the two sides failed to reach an agreement, Gazprom deputy chairman, Alexander Medvedev, told journalists.

Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine were supposed to restart on Thursday following a foreign court ruling aimed at ending years of disputes between Kiev and Moscow, including two halts to Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. But Gazprom unexpectedly refused to resume deliveries, returning the prepayment for supplies made by Kiev, claiming amendments to a contract had not been completed.

The decision came as the sides reportedly failed to extend a supplemental agreement to the current gas contract, RT reported.

“So far, the supplemental agreement to the operating contract with Naftogaz has not been approved, and that is a compulsory condition for launching the shipments,” Medvedev said. “So, we have to recover the amount paid by the company in full. And it is obvious that the shipments in March won’t start.”

In response, Ukraine’s state monopoly said that Gazprom had failed to deliver prepaid gas. Naftogaz is reportedly planning to claim damages for supply failure from the Russian energy major.

And while the long-running dispute may, but likely won’t, be resolved in court, Ukraine has suddenly found itself without heat and on Friday urged schools to close and factories to cut production, while residents shivered as the country strained to save on gas supplies.

The decision coincided with freezing temperatures all over Ukraine, and the government called on Friday for measures to reduce consumption.

“Starting today, we recommended … to stop the work of kindergartens, schools and universities,” Ukraine energy minister Igor Nasalyk told lawmakers, while urging Ukrainian companies to adjust their operations to save gas, while power companies were ordered to switch to fuel oil where possible.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Beast From The East: Europe’s Feeling The Chill

March 2, 2018

Beast From The East: Europe’s Feeling The Chill

The “Beast from the East” has well and truly arrived in Europe, blanketing much of the continent in snow.

The Siberian weather system has sent temperatures plummeting to as low as -30°C in some places and, as Statista’s Niall McCarthy reports, at least ten people have died due to the cold spell since Monday. Many major European cities have experienced their coldest temperatures in years as the following infographic shows.

You will find more infographics at Statista

On Wednesday, Rome was experiencing lows of -6°C while the average February low in the Italian capital is 3°C, according to Current Results. The city also saw its first snowfall in six years while Naples had to deal with its heaviest bout of snow in decades. The mercury usually doesn’t dip below 5°C during February in Naples.

Residents in both London and Amsterdam have been shivering in temperatures of -7°C but Munich and Berlin are even worse off.

Yahoo Weather put Wednesday’s low in Munich at -17°C while Berliners had to endure -12°C, far colder than the average February low of -2°C.

The Beast from the East and European Energy Security

February 28, 2018

The Beast from the East and European Energy Security

European energy security is a subject I return to time and again normally prompted by some kind of event. This time it is severe cold weather and snow that has spread from Siberia over the whole of North and Western Europe, rather late in the season, at a time when gas storage is depleted. There are some compounding factors like the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands is substantially reduced and the UKs biggest gas storage facility – Rough – has been closed. Will the lights stay on? Probably yes, but only because governments may ask large industrial consumers to scale back or shut down their operations. At a time when social services are being cut to the bone, is this really the time for government energy policies to be eroding national GDP?

The Beast from the East

This cold weather pattern has been christened the beast from the East by the British press. So what is it? Essentially atmospheric circulation has gone into reverse. Instead of receiving normally mild south westerlies, we are getting a very cold easterly air stream as Figure 1 shows. As I have said repeatedly on this blog, the likely reason for this anomalous behaviour is changes to solar spectrum linked to low magnetic activity and circulation within the solar plasma. We observe all this complexity as changes in sunspot number and length of the sunspot cycle.

Figure 1 Screen capture ~ 18:00 hours from Windy.com (HT Gunther) Tuesday 27 February. All the arrows over Europe are pointing West. London -3˚C, Paris -3˚C, Berlin -7˚C, Warsaw -11˚C and Oslo -11˚C. Energy for heating will be in high demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How To Stay Warm in a Long-Term SHTF Event

January 29, 2018

How To Stay Warm in a Long-Term SHTF Event

As well-informed readers, you know the world situation does not appear to be improving. At any time, we could well find ourselves in the middle of a SHTF event…be it economic collapse, a nuclear attack, or a string of natural disasters. Regarding this last item, the steady string of hurricanes bringing a deadly swath of death and destruction to the United States has been happening as we speak. The unmentioned problem: we’re on the “butt” end of winter, and as such, you’ll have to take extra precautions in the event it hits the fan.

10 Ways to Stay Warm in a Long-Term SHTF Event

This is going to be a very specific list; however, it is not exhaustive. There will always be more to add, and there is never enough: that’s the bottom line. This will get you started on your checklist, either physical or mental to ready your preparations before the winter hits.

Warm clothing: and plenty of it. Gore-Tex top and bottoms are an absolute necessity, and plenty of warm socks, thermal underwear, and good boots that are waterproof, have plenty of Thinsulate and good soles, and give good ankle support.
Sleeping bag, Gore-Tex cover, and sleeping pad: Remember to go for the best in terms of quality and performance. Another essential in this regard is a good compression bag and a wet-weather bag. A soaking wet sleeping bag is not fun. Stay warm, dry, and insulated from the conduction of lying on the ground.
Plenty of hand warmers: Why? Because if you’re going to give an IV in the middle of the winter, you want to warm up the bag, that’s why. Because you may need to thaw something out and not be able to light a fire due to operational security reasons.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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