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Target Liberty: Gorbachev Accuses US of Stoking ‘New Cold War’

December 3, 2014

Target Liberty: Gorbachev Accuses US of Stoking ‘New Cold War’.

Mikhail Gorbachev claims that American “triumphalism” is stoking a new Cold War and called for “avid militarists” to stop dragging Europe into conflict, reports the Telegraph.

Gorbachev said there was still time to defuse the standoff between Moscow and the West, as he and his western counterparts had done during the Perestroika period.

“Now there are once again signs of a Cold War,” he said in an interview with Tass, the state-owned Russian news agency. “This process can and must be stopped. After all, we did it in the 1980s. We opted for de-escalation, for the reunification (of Germany). And back then it was a lot tougher than now. So we could do it again.”

Gorbachev said he thought the United States was largely to blame for the confrontation today. “I don’t want to praise our government too much,” he said. “It has also made quite a few errors, but today the danger comes from the American position. They are tortured by triumphalism.”

The Russians appear to be much more rational and eager to find a peaceful solution to current conflicts than the warmongers here in the US.

Remember, though confused about economics, Gorbachev allowed the Soviet Union to collapse rather than ordering Russian troops into the neighboring satellite countries to put down protests.

He set this policy from the very start of his rule:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

charles hugh smith-The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1

December 1, 2014

charles hugh smith-The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1.

Given the presumed 17% expansion of the global economy since 2009, the tiny increases in production could not possibly flood the world in oil unless demand has cratered.

The term Black Swan shows up in all sorts of discussions, but what does it actually mean? Though the term has roots stretching back to the 16th century, today it refers to author Nassim Taleb’s meaning as defined in his books, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets and The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable:

“First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme ‘impact’. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

Simply put, black swans areundirected and unpredicted. The Wikipedia entry lists three criteria based on Taleb’s work:

1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).

2. The event has a major effect.

3. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs.

It is my contention that the recent free-fall in the price of oil qualifies as a financial Black Swan. Let’s go through the criteria:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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