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One of BofA’s “Imminent Market Crash” Indicators Was Just Triggered

Early last month, we showed that one of Bank of America’s “guaranteed bear market” indicators, namely the three-month earnings estimate revision ratio (ERR) which since 1988 has had a 100% hit rate of predicting upcoming bear markets, was just triggered. As Bank of America explained at the time, “since 1986, a bear market has followed each time that the ERR rule has been triggered.”

The only weakness of that particular indicator is that while a bear market always followed, the timing was unclear and the upcoming bear could arrive as late as two years after the trigger hit.

Well, fast forward to today when overnight another proprietary “guaranteed bear market” indicator created by the Bank of America quants was just triggered.

As we explained earlier today, as part of the unprecedented, historic rush to dump cash and buy any stocks that one can find, BofA’s “Bull & Bear indicator” surged to 7.9 – effectively 8 – a level that is indicative of broad market euphoria, and the highest it has been since March of 2013, or nearly 5 years ago.

There is another, far more important, reason why the triggering of the Bull and Bear Indicator is a remarkable event: according to Bank of America back-tests, not only does this particular indicator also have a 100% hit rate once triggered…

but on 11 out of 11 signals since 2002, the market dropped on average 12% after it was triggered.

And yes, it also works in the opposite direction: the last Bull & Bear indicator flashed was a buy signal of 0 on Feb 11th 2016. Since then the S&P has been up on 22 of the next 23 months.

Finally, and most importantly, unlike other “bear market” indicators which confirm if a crash is imminent but not when, this one gives an explicit time window: the market always dumps within the next 3 months once a Sell signal has been trigerred.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BofA’s Apocalyptic Forecast: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts In H1 2018, War May Follow

BofA’s Apocalyptic Forecast: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts In H1 2018, War May Follow

Having predicted back in July that the “most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months“, i.e., now, BofA’s Michael Hartnett was – in retrospect – wrong (unless of course the S&P plunges in the next few days). However, having stuck to his underlying logic – which was as sound then as it is now – Hartnett has not given up on his “bad cop” forecast (not to be mistaken with the S&P target to be unveiled shortly by BofA’s equity team and which will probably be around 2,800), and in a note released overnight, the Chief Investment Strategist not only once again dares to time his market peak forecast, which he now thinks will take place in the first half of 2018, but goes so far as to predict that there will be a flash crash “a la 1987/1994/1998” in just a few months.

Contrasting his preview of 2018 with the almost concluded 2017, Hartnett sets the sour mood with his very first words, stating that he believes “2018 risk asset catalysts are much less bullish than in 2017” for the simple reason that the bearish positioning going into 2017 has been completely flipped: “positioning now long, not short; profit expectations high, not low; policy close to max stimulus; peak positioning, peak profits, peak policy stimulus means peak asset returns in 2018.”  He also goes on to point out that the historical omens are poor:

  • Bull market in S&P500 would become the longest ever on August 22, 2018 (and the second biggest ever at 2863 on S&P500).
  • Equities have only outperformed bonds for seven consecutive years on three occasions in the past 220 years (the last time was 1928 – Chart 1).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BofA Lists 10 Triggers For The Next Crash: “It’s Coming Between Thanksgiving And Valentine’s Day”

BofA Lists 10 Triggers For The Next Crash: “It’s Coming Between Thanksgiving And Valentine’s Day” 

Back in mid-July, BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett predicted that the “most dangerous moment for market will come in 3 or 4 months.” Well, we are now “between 3 and 4” months since the forecast fate and the most dangerous moment we have experienced since then, ironically, is today’s modest selloff on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday. So looking back at his forecast, has Hartnett thrown in the towel on calls for a correction, and joined all the other BTFDers? Not quite: instead, Hartnett’s thesis has merely shifted, and he now contends that having entered the market’s melt up somewhat late, a bubble which as shown before has unleashed raging purchases of tech stocks and credit, especially junk bonds…

… he expects the upside S&P momentum to linger, bursting to 2,670 before finally getting swept under the bubble tide. When will this happen? “We believe sometime between Thanksgiving & Valentine’s Day,” or between 1 and 4 months, so even as Hartnett keeps the long-end of his forecast horizon fixed, he continues to expect that the next major move lower may come as soon as 1 month from today.

So how does Hartnett get to this conclusion, and what specific triggers is he looking for to launch the selling? Before we get there, here is an explanation of why we are where we are right now, i.e., what is the consensus trade.

What is consensus?

The zeitgeist of Wall Street can be summarized as follows:

  • Bullish credit and equities with “Goldilocks” macro conviction
  • No fear of the Fed (or ECB, BoJ…), expectations for a “good” rise in bond yields
  • Long positions in stocks, IG/HY/EM bonds, EAFE & EM equities, banks, a “sellers strike” in tech, shorts in commodities & government bonds…i.e. the death of mean reversion

Following his latest Fund Managers Survey (profiled here earlier this week), Hartnett notes that, obviously, “Clients are bullish risk assets”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The End Of The QE Trade”: Why Bank of America Expects An Imminent Market Correction

“The End Of The QE Trade”: Why Bank of America Expects An Imminent Market Correction

Last Friday, when looking at the historic, record lows in September volatility and the daily highs in US and global equity markets, BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said that the “best reason to be bearish in Q4 is there is no reason to be bearish.

That prompted quite a few responses from traders, some snyde, a handful delighted (some bears still do exist), but most confused: after all what does investors (or algo) sentiment have to do with a “market” in which as Hartnett himself admits over $2 trillion in central bank liquidity has been injected in recent years to prop up risk assets.

To explain what he meant, overnight Hartnett followed up with an explainer note looking at the “Great Rotation vs the Great DIsruption”, in which he first reverted to his favorite topic, the blow-off market top he dubbed the “Icarus Rally”, which he defined initially nearly a year ago, and in which he notes that “big asset returns in 2017 have been driven by big global QE & big global EPS.

But mostly “big global QE.”

As a result, Hartnett’s “blow off top”, or Icarus, targets for Q4 are: S&P 2630, Nasdaq 6666, 10-year Treasury 2.85%, EUR 1.15. At this rate, the S&P could hit BofA’s target in about 3-4 weeks, and thus Hartnett lays out the following 11th hour trade recos for Q4

  • long US$ vs EM FX,
  • long oil,
  • long barbell of uber-growth (IBOTZ, DJECOM) & uber-value (BKX) = Icarus trade;
  • further unwind of extended “long disruptor, short disrupted” trade likely (i.e. death of old Retail, Media, Autos, Advertising by Tech Disruptors);
  • rotational outperformance of oil>credit, EAFE>EM,
  • value/growth

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of America Stumbles On A $51 Trillion Problem

At the end of June, the Institute of International Finance delivered a troubling verdict: in a period of so-called “coordinated growth”, total global debt (including financial) hit a new all time high of $217 trillion in 2017, over 327% of global GDP, and up $50 trillion over the past decade. Commenting then, we said “so much for Ray Dalio’s beautiful deleveraging, oh and for those economists who are still confused why r-star remains near 0%, the chart  below has all the answers.”

Today, in a follow up analysis of this surge in global debt offset by stagnant economic growth, BofA’s Barnaby Martin writes that he finds “that as global debt has been mounting to more than $150 trillion (government, household and non-financials corporate debt), global GDP is just above $60 trillion.” His observation is shown in the self-explanatory chart below.

As a result, both the global economy and central banks are now held hostage by both the unprecedented stock of debt injected into capital markets over recent years to offset the financial crisis depression, and the record low interest rates associated with it.

As Martin writes, “the global fixed income market (as captured by the GFIM index) is now above the $51trillion mark“, which means that “more than $51 trillion at risk if rates vol spikes and yields move higher” and adds that “amid a record amount of assets acquired by the central banks we have seen the global fixed income market growing to the largest size it has ever been.” This is shown in the left panel on the chart below, while the right side chart shows the accompanying housing bubble: “amid record low funding costs the housing market is also experiencing rapid price gains in some regions as prices are now higher than pre-GFC levels. All main housing markets (US, Europe, Japan and UK) are above the 2007 highs, propped-up by record low yield levels.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Banks Have Purchased $2 Trillion In Assets In 2017

Central Banks Have Purchased $2 Trillion In Assets In 2017 

In his latest “flow report”, BofA’s Michael Hartnett looks at the “Disconnect Myth” between rising stocks and bonds and summarizes succinctly that there is “no disconnect between stocks & bonds.”

Why? The best, and simplest, explanation for low yields & high stocks is simple: so far in 2017 there has been $1.96 trillion of central bank purchases of financial assets in 2017 alone, as central bank balance sheets have grown by $11.26 trillion since Lehman to $15.6 trillion. Hartnett concedes that the second best explanation is bonds pricing in low CPI (increasingly a new structurally low level of inflation due to tech disruption of labor force) while equities price in high EPS (with little on horizon to meaningfully reverse trend), although there is no reason why the second can’t flow from the first.

The result is an era of lower yields & higher stocks, or as the chart below shows, an era in which the alligator jaws of death are just waiting for their moment to shine. Here are the three phases:

  • 1981-2009 (disinflation/Fed put), 10-year Treasury yields down from 15.8% to 3.9% = 10.7% annualized S&P 500 returns;
  • 2009-2016 (Fed QE/global ZIRP) yields down from 3.9% to 2.4% = 14.9% SPX ann. return;
  • 2017 YTD (ECB/BoJ QE) yield down to 2%, SPX annualizing 17.5%.

BofA then gives a list of how to time the endgame, or when bonds become bad for stocks:

  1. yield curve inverts,
  2. lower yields lead to higher credit spreads (particularly high yield & EM bond spreads…watch tech spreads in coming months),
  3. The deflation bonds discounting starts to negatively impact EPS,
  4. flip side is never good sign to see rising yields coincide with falling bank & housing stocks;

The good news is that none of these 4 conditions are being met, for now.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Credit Investors Are Suddenly Extremely Worried About Central Banks

Credit Investors Are Suddenly Extremely Worried About Central Banks

On one hand, credit investors have never had it better with IG credit spread at record tights and junk bond yields sliding to 3 year lows

On the other, and this is linked to the above, they have never been more nervous, and as the latest Bank of America credit investor survey shows, more worried about the Fed in general, and “Quantitative Failure” in particular.

But why, if as so many claim, the Fed has nothing to do with the the return of risk assets? Ignore that, it’s rhetorical.

As BofA’s Barnaby Martin writes, August’s survey shows a marked change in the Wall of Worry, in which “Quantitative Failure” has now emerged as investors’ top concern (23%), up materially from June’s reading (6%). The reason for the sudden spike in central bank fears is that Investors say that a backdrop of the ECB ending QE next year, while inflation remains sub-par, has the potential to rattle the market’s confidence.

The chart above shows that at the top of the Wall of Worry for both high grade and high yield investors are:

  • “Quantitative Failure”, “bubbles in credit” and “rising yields”
  • Interestingly, almost no investor worries now about “populism” or “low liquidity”
  • Bubbles in credit still features among the top worries, but is well down from June’s reading (in high-grade it has fallen from 33% to 21%)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BofA: “Central Banks Are Now In A Desperate Dilemma”…”Start Buying Volatility”

BofA: “Central Banks Are Now In A Desperate Dilemma”…”Start Buying Volatility”

One week after the second biggest weekly inflow to Wall Street on record, the “risk on” rotation ended abruptly in the ensuing five days, when as Bank of America writes overnight, it observed “Inflows to structural “deflation”, outflows from cyclical “inflation”; with oil the “poster child” for this trend.”

Half a year after central bankers around the globe rejoiced that the Trump victory may finally spur the long-delayed period of global reflation, that hope is now dead and buried (even as the Fed keeps hiking into some imaginary inflation wave) which BofA’s Michael Hartnett observes not only in asset prices, but also in fund flows.

As the BofA strategist writes in a note aptly titled “Bubble, bubble, oil & trouble”, the big flow message “is structural “deflation” dominating cyclical “inflation” (oil price is the “poster child” for victory of deflation): outflows from TIPS; first outflows from bank loans in 32 weeks; outflows from US value funds in 8 of past the 9 weeks; 1st inflows to REITS in 11 weeks; biggest inflows to utilities in 51 weeks.

More importantly the tsunami of recent inflows, mostly into US equities, appears to finally be slowing: following sizable inflows to equities & bonds last week ($33.5bn in aggregate), a week of modest flows: $5.0bn into bonds, $0.5bn into equities, $0.8bn outflows from gold. Additionally, after the recent “tech wreck”, flows show confirm that contrarians – or simply stopped out algos – have flirted with sector rotation as inflows to energy ($0.4bn) were offset by outflows from tech ($0.2bn) & growth funds ($2.1bn);

Looking at BofA’s client base, Harnett notes that private clients were also sellers of tech past 4 weeks; and adds that despite the 20% YTD decline in oil price, energy funds ($2.8bn) and MLPs ($2.6bn) see inflows in 2017.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Problem Emerges: Central Banks Injected A Record $1 Trillion In 2017… It’s Not Enough

A Problem Emerges: Central Banks Injected A Record $1 Trillion In 2017… It’s Not Enough

Two weeks ago Bank of America caused a stir when it calculated that central banks (mostly the ECB & BoJ) have bought $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, “the largest CB buying on record.” 

 

BofA’s Michael Hartnett noted that supersized central bank intervention which he dubbed a “liquidity supernova” is “the best explanation why global stocks & bonds both annualizing double-digit gains YTD despite Trump, Le Pen, China, macro…”

To be sure, Hartnett’s “discovery” did not come as a surprise to regular readers: back in October 2014, Citi’s Matt King calculated that it costs central banks $200 billion per quarter to avoid a market crash, or as he put it:

For over a year now, central banks have quietly being reducing their support. As Figure 7 shows, much of this is down to the Fed, but the contraction in the ECB’s balance sheet has also been significant. Seen from this perspective, a negative reaction in markets was long overdue: very roughly, the charts suggest that zero stimulus would be consistent with 50bp widening in investment grade, or a little over a ten percent quarterly drop in equities. Put differently, it takes around $200bn per quarter just to keep markets from selling off.

Today we showed just what central bank buying looks like in practical terms when we demonstrated that the Swiss national Bank had purchased a record $17 billion in US equities in just the first quarter, bringing its total US equity long holdings to an all time high above $80 billion…

… in the process soaking up nearly 4 million AAPL shares in the first 3 months of the year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Prepare For “Manias, Panics And Crashes”: An Ominous Warning From Bank Of America

Prepare For “Manias, Panics And Crashes”: An Ominous Warning From Bank Of America

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett is back with another controversial note overnight, reminding readers that “it ain’t a normal cycle” for one overarching reason: central banks.

As Hartnett explains, the catalyst for bull in equity and credit markets since 2009 was the “revolutionary monetary policy of central banks” who, since Lehman, “have cut rates 679 times and bought $14.2tn of financial assets.” And, once again, he warns that this central bank “liquidity supernova” is coming to an end, as is “the period of excess returns in equities and corporate bonds, as is the period of suppressed volatility.”

With an entire generation of traders having grown up “trading” in centrally-planned markets, few can make sense of the fundamentals that accompany the market. As a result, Harnett writes that “risk markets continue to climb a wall of worry, defying bearish structural trends in the financial industry, taunting skittish skeptics by paraphrasing Margaret Thatcher…”You turn if you want to. The market’s not for turning.”

Demonstrating how insane just the past year has been in markets, Hartnett reminds us that just eight months ago belief in debt deflation & secular stagnation induced lowest interest rates in 5000 years.

  • On July 11th 2016 Swiss government could have issued 50- year debt out to 2076 at a negative yield (of -0.035%)…
  • …and in 1989 the Imperial Palace in Tokyo worth more than all real estate in California…
  • …and in March’2000 the market cap of Yahoo was 25X greater than market cap of Chinese equity market (MSCI)…
  • …and in 2008 the combined assets of Iceland’s three biggest banks were 14 times the size of the nation’s GDP…
  • …all manias, all over now.

While the current mania almost ended in early 2016, it was once again China that was responsible for the latest leg higher:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Shale Production To Soar By 3.5 Million Barrels/Day Over Next Five Years: BofA Explains Why

US Shale Production To Soar By 3.5 Million Barrels/Day Over Next Five Years: BofA Explains Why

Two years ago, when Saudi Arabia launched on an unprecedented campaign to crush high-cost oil producers, in the process effectively putting an end to the OPEC cartel (at least until last year’s attempt to cut production), it made a bold bet that US shale producers would be swept under when the price of oil tumbled, leading to a tsunami of bankruptcies, as well as investment and production halts. To an extent it succeeded, but where it may have made a glaring error is the core assumption about shale breakeven costs, which as we reported throughout 2016, were substantially lower than consensus estimated.

In his latest note, BofA’s Francisco Blanch explains not only why a drop in shale breakevens costs is what is currently the biggest wildcard in the global race to reach production “equilibrium”, but also why US shale oil production could surge in the coming years, prompting OPEC to boost production in hopes of recapturing market share.  Specifically, Blanch predicts that US shale oil production could grow by a whopping 3.5 million barrels per day over the next five years.

Here’s why: as he explains “many oil companies around the world have survived the price meltdown by bringing down breakeven costs in the last two years.

But what parts of the world can grow output in the years ahead? In BofA’s view, US shale oil producers will come out ahead and deliver outsized market share gains by 2022. Shale oil output in the US may grow sequentially by 600 thousand b/d from 4Q16 to 4Q17 on increased activity in oil rigs and fast productivity gains. Importantly, breakeven costs for key major US plays now stand around the $55/bbl mark.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dakota Pipeline Struggle Between the ‘People’ and the ‘Powerful’ Remains Underreported

Dakota Pipeline Struggle Between the ‘People’ and the ‘Powerful’ Remains Underreported 

    Angela Miracle Gladue, a member of the Frog Lake First Nations, a Cree community in Edmonton, Canada, attends a rally in support of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and in opposition to the Dakota Access oil pipeline. The event was in Lafayette Park near the White House in mid-September. (Jacquelyn Martin / AP)

A David and Goliath story is unfolding in North Dakota with a familiar theme: The “people” (who seek to do good for the planet) versus the “powerful” (who want to pursue evil that destroys the lives of the people and earth).

The colossal struggle around the extraction of the earth’s diminishing natural resources has been mounting since the Keystone XL pipeline proposal was commissioned in 2010. At that point, the Rosebud Sioux Nation in South Dakota and other native nations declared the pipeline construction “an act of war” that violates tribal sovereignty and abrogates treaty rights. The villainy continued when Bank of America became the lead financier of the lofty-sounding Plains All American Red River II pipeline that violated the same rights of the native peoples of Oklahoma.

This undeclared war continues in Canada with the controversial Kinder Morgan tar sands pipeline and export terminal facility. That proposal seeks to plow new pipelines and shipping lanes through the pristine wilds of Canada and its Salish Sea in order to transport some 890,000 barrels daily of Alberta tar sand liquid bitumen through areas inhabited by indigenous and non-indigenous peoples, as well as plants and animals.

Kinder Morgan, the largest pipeline company in the U.S., was founded by Richard Kinder, who took over from Jeffrey Skilling, the former CEO of Enron, now serving 24 years in prison for fraud and insider trading. Called “the luckiest ex-Enron employee” by The Wall Street Journal, Kinder is the 110th richest man alive, with a net worth of $8.2 billion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Major Problems Announced At One Of The Largest Too Big To Fail Banks In The United States

Major Problems Announced At One Of The Largest Too Big To Fail Banks In The United States

Wells FargoDo you remember when our politicians promised to do something about the “too big to fail” banks?  Well, they didn’t, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.  On Thursday, it was announced that one of those “too big to fail” banks, Wells Fargo, has been slapped with 185 million dollars in penalties.  It turns out that for years their employees had been opening millions of bank and credit card accounts for customers without even telling them.  The goal was to meet sales goals, and customers were hit by surprise fees that they never intended to pay.  Some employees actually created false email addresses and false PIN numbers to sign customers up for accounts.  It was fraud on a scale that is hard to imagine, and now Wells Fargo finds itself embroiled in a major crisis.

There are six banks in America that basically dwarf all of the other banks – JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.  If a single one of those banks were to fail, it would be a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions for our financial system.  So we need these banks to be healthy and running well.  That is why what we just learned about Wells Fargois so concerning…

Employees of Wells Fargo (WFC) boosted sales figures by covertly opening the accounts and funding them by transferring money from customers’ authorized accounts without permission, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Los Angeles city officials said.

An analysis by the San Francisco-headquartered bank found that its employees opened more than two million deposit and credit card accounts that may not have been authorized by consumers, the officials said. Many of the transfers ran up fees or other charges for the customers, even as they helped employees make incentive goals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Major Problems Announced At One Of The Largest Too Big To Fail Banks In The United States

Major Problems Announced At One Of The Largest Too Big To Fail Banks In The United States

Wells FargoDo you remember when our politicians promised to do something about the “too big to fail” banks?  Well, they didn’t, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.  On Thursday, it was announced that one of those “too big to fail” banks, Wells Fargo, has been slapped with 185 million dollars in penalties.  It turns out that for years their employees had been opening millions of bank and credit card accounts for customers without even telling them.  The goal was to meet sales goals, and customers were hit by surprise fees that they never intended to pay.  Some employees actually created false email addresses and false PIN numbers to sign customers up for accounts.  It was fraud on a scale that is hard to imagine, and now Wells Fargo finds itself embroiled in a major crisis.

There are six banks in America that basically dwarf all of the other banks – JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.  If a single one of those banks were to fail, it would be a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions for our financial system.  So we need these banks to be healthy and running well.  That is why what we just learned about Wells Fargois so concerning…

Employees of Wells Fargo (WFC) boosted sales figures by covertly opening the accounts and funding them by transferring money from customers’ authorized accounts without permission, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Los Angeles city officials said.

An analysis by the San Francisco-headquartered bank found that its employees opened more than two million deposit and credit card accounts that may not have been authorized by consumers, the officials said. Many of the transfers ran up fees or other charges for the customers, even as they helped employees make incentive goals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oilmageddon, Central Banks And Liquidity: The 3 “Feedback Loops” Keeping Citi Up At Night

Oilmageddon, Central Banks And Liquidity: The 3 “Feedback Loops” Keeping Citi Up At Night

In recent months we have seen a dramatic spike in visualizations by sellside analysts, who appear to have finally grasped the reflexive nature of markets first noted so many years ago by none other than George Soros, which – with the Fed involved in all of them – show just why Janet Yellen is trapped.

First, it was Bank of America who in early may sketched the not-so-merry-go-round framing the relationship between the Fed and the market as follows (for our commentary read here):

Then just a few weeks later, when Goldman soured on China and the Yuan, the vampire squid revealed the Fed-China “doom loop” showing the Catch 22 relationship between the USD and the Yuan and how the S&P500 works as an intermediate buffer between the two.

Now it is Citi’s turn to unveil its own charting artistry with the following chart summarizing what it sees as the 3 big feedback loop risks as the world enters the “volatile” phase of the centrally-planned market and global economy. Presented without commentary.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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