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When the central bank for central banks publishes its quarterly review, the world should take note.

Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS, published the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2019on Sunday, revealing how the increasing acceptance of negative interest rates has reached “vaguely troubling” levels.

The statement comes after the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates to flight a global manufacturing slowdown — Borio said that the effectiveness of monetary policy is severely waning and might not be able to counter the global downturn, in other words, JPMorgan Global Composite PMI might print sub 50 for a considerable period of time.

“The room for monetary policy maneuver has narrowed further. Should a downturn materialize, monetary policy will need a helping hand, not least from a wise use of fiscal policy in those countries where there is still room for maneuver.”

The BIS, known as the ‘central bankers’ bank,’ said the recent easing by the Fed, ECB, and PBOC, has pushed yields lower across the world, contributing to the more than $17 trillion in negative-yielding tradeable bonds.

From Germany to Japan, 10-year government debt rates have plunged into negative territory, in recent times.

“Against this backdrop, sovereign bond yields naturally declined further, at times driven by the prospect of slower economic activity and heightened risks, at others by central banks’ reassuring easing measures. At one point, before the recent uptick in yields, the amount of sovereign and even corporate bonds trading at negative rates hit a new record, over USD 17 trillion according to certain estimates, equivalent to roughly 20% of world GDP. Indeed, some households, too, could borrow at negative rates. A growing number of investors are paying for the privilege of parting with their money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BIS General Manager Outlines Vision for Central Bank Digital Currencies

April 5, 2019

BIS General Manager Outlines Vision for Central Bank Digital Currencies

The behaviour of central bankers is rarely (if ever) given sustained coverage in the national press. Outside of prominent economic channels, developments from within institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements are seldom remarked upon. Instead, attention is restricted to the latest round of political theatrics which serve to disguise the actions and intentions of globalist planners.

As the furore of Brexit gained in intensity last month, BIS General Manager Agustin Carstens gave a speech at the Central Bank of Ireland 2019 Whitaker Lecture. Under the heading, ‘The future of money and payments‘, Carstens mapped out what has been a long standing vision of globalists – namely, to acquire full spectrum control of the international financial system through the gradual abolition of what Bank of England governor Mark Carney has called ‘tangible assets‘ i.e. physical money.

The ‘future of money‘ narrative is one that both the BIS and the IMF have been actively promoting since the advent of Brexit and Donald Trump’s presidency. Here are some links to speeches made by both Christine Lagarde and Agustin Carstens:

Central Banking and Fintech—A Brave New World?
Winds of Change: The Case for New Digital Currency
Money and payment systems in the digital age
Money in the digital age: what role for central banks?

Central to the vision for a fully digitised global economy is the intent to reform national payment systems. The UK uses the Real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system, which the majority of payments in Britain are facilitated through. The Bank of England’s Victoria Cleland has emphasised on numerous occasions that the ‘fundamental renewal‘ of the system is being carried out through choice rather than necessity. This would indicate that RTGS works fine in its current manifestation, but the BOE (along with the European Central Bank) have been tasked with assuming more control over their respective payment systems.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Capital Flows–Is a Reckoning Nigh?

March 18, 2019

CAPITAL FLOWS – IS A RECKONING NIGH?

Borrowing in Euros continues to rise even as the rate of US borrowing slows
The BIS has identified an Expansionary Lower Bound for interest rates
Developed economies might not be immune to the ELB
Demographic deflation will thwart growth for decades to come

In Macro Letter – No 108 – 18-01-2019 – A world of debt – where are the risks? I looked at the increase in debt globally, however, there has been another trend, since 2009, which is worth investigating as we consider from whence the greatest risk to global growth may hail. The BIS global liquidity indicators at end-September 2018 – released at the end of January, provides an insight: –

The annual growth rate of US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States slowed down to 3%, compared with its most recent peak of 7% at end-2017. The outstanding stock stood at $11.5 trillion.
In contrast, euro-denominated credit to non-bank borrowers outside the euro area rose by 9% year on year, taking the outstanding stock to €3.2 trillion (equivalent to $3.7 trillion). Euro-denominated credit to non-bank borrowers located in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) grew even more strongly, up by 13%.

The chart below shows the slowing rate of US$ credit growth, while euro credit accelerates: –

Source: BIS global liquidity indicators

The rising demand for Euro denominated borrowing has been in train since the end of the Great Financial Recession in 2009. Lower interest rates in the Eurozone have been a part of this process; a tendency for the Japanese Yen to rise in times of economic and geopolitical concern has no doubt helped European lenders to gain market share. This trend, however, remains over-shadowed by the sheer size of the US credit markets. The US$ has remained preeminent due to structurally higher interest rates and bond yields than Europe or Japan: investors, rather than borrowers, dictate capital flows.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BIS Warns Of Market Crash Risk, Looming Firesales Once BBB Downgrade Avalanche Begins

March 5, 2019

BIS Warns Of Market Crash Risk, Looming Firesales Once BBB Downgrade Avalanche Begins

Over the past year, one of the key concerns to emerge in the $6.4 trillion investment grade corporate bond market is when and how will BBB-rated bonds, which now comprise 60% of all outstanding IG names in the US, be downgraded and whether a new financial crisis will follow

We addressed this issue most recently in “The $6.4 Trillion Question: How Many BBB Bonds Are About To Be Downgraded” while the broader question of the “next bond crisis” was address in “Over $1 Trillion In Bonds Risk Cut To Junk Once Cycle Turns.” It wasn’t just us, however, with financial luminaries, regulators and investors such as the Fed, the BOE, the IMF, Oaktree’s Howard Marks, Doubleline’s Jeff Gundlach, JPMorgan, and Guggenheim all warning that the “fallen angel” threat is arguably the most serious challenge facing the US corporate bond market during the next recession.

And now, it’s the turn of the central banks’ central bank, the Bank of International Settlements, to join the bandwagon, warning that the surging supply of corporate debt in the riskiest, BBB investment-grade category has left markets vulnerable to a crash once economic weakness triggers a bout of rating downgrades, and sends over $1 trillion in IG bonds, or fallen angels, right into junk bond purgatory.

Highlighting numbers which have been discussed previously, the BIS notes that in 2018, BBB-rated bonds accounted for about 45% of U.S. and European mutual fund portfolios, up from only 20% in 2010, according to the BIS, and cautions that due to rating trigger limitations, many investors may have to sell those bonds if they fall out of the investment-grade scale.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Dismissing Globalist Warnings as ‘Project Fear’ May Prove a Mistake

January 12, 2019

Why Dismissing Globalist Warnings as ‘Project Fear’ May Prove a Mistake

In film and literature, the majority of stories feature a customary villain, either in a singular or collective sense. Someone or something that we can pour scorn on as the hero flounders in the face of increasingly insurmountable odds.

Whilst the hero invariably wins out in the world of fantasy, in reality the spoils often fall on the side of the miscreants. A discomforting fact is that throughout history a large proportion of these spoils have been claimed through the use of deception and outright conspiracy.

Authors such as Antony Sutton – who penned several books exposing the engineered conflict behind the Bolshevik Revolution and the rise of Adolf Hitler and Nazism – have presented irrefutable evidence detailing how world events can and are manipulated for the benefit of financial elites using what is known as the Hegelian Dialectic. This is where you create a thesis, pitch it against an antithesis, and use the ensuing conflict to engineer a synthesis that brings about significant but desired changes within society.

As I have written about previously, out of conflict generally comes the consolidation of power that works to the benefit of major global institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements. They, along with the World Bank, the League of Nations, the United Nations and the makings of the European Union, were all conceived as a direct consequence of global conflict.

For globalists, chaos breeds opportunity. Historically, they have required crisis scenarios in order to both advance their goals and position themselves as the solution to instability.

We can find evidence for this from the IMF and it’s current head Christine Lagarde. In February 2010, Lagarde (who at the time was France’s Minister of Finance) was interviewed by The Globe and Mail and asked about the fall-out from the financial crisis of 2008:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Debt Reset Begins, Global Banks Issue Dire Warnings, Trump Wall Showdown

January 11, 2019

Debt Reset Begins, Global Banks Issue Dire Warnings, Trump Wall Showdown

According to renowned gold investor Jim Sinclair, the global debt reset that has been long predicted has begun. Lots of debt that will never be repaid will be written down around the world. Sinclair says gold and silver will be the last men standing when the dust settles.

The BIS, World Bank and the IMF have all issued dire warnings in the past few weeks of financial “storm clouds.” In other words, the biggest bankers in the world are warning of another financial meltdown coming in the not-so-distant future.

Nance Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are being beaten up so badly over the government shutdown and security funding for a wall on the southern border that even singer Cher is telling the Speaker of the House and the minority leader in the Senate to “Be the Hero” and cave in and put 800,000 government workers back to work. The U.S. has a $4 trillion budget (that’s $4,000 billion) and Nancy and Chuck are holding up the government for little more than $5 billion in funding for security that includes a wall. Even Democrat James Carville is making fun of Chuck and Nancy’s response to Trump’s network appeal for a border wall and security on the southern border.

Join Greg Hunter as he gives his take on the top stories of the past week in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

After the Wrap-Up:

Catherine Austin Fitts founder of Solari.com will be the guest for the Early Sunday Release. She will give us an update on the serious matter of $21 trillion in “missing money” at DOD and HUD and why it will soon affect every American.

Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet

December 31, 2018

Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet

All better now. It’s a Christmas miracle, the plunge erased by market closure as if FDR had just been re-elected and taken the oath. The Dow is on everyone’s mind, so trading on December 26 has understandably stuck.

Stocks posted their best day in nearly a decade on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its largest one-day point gain in history. Rallies in retail and energy shares led the gains, as Wall Street recovered the steep losses suffered in the previous session.

The sigh of relief is palpable all across the world. The BIS called the steep, worrisome liquidations up to now Yet More Bumps On The Path To Normal, and the rallies especially in stocks and oil have served to confirm the thesis. Just some minor, dare I say transitory discomfort on the road to paradise.

Is it though?

We have been watching eurodollar futures, well, forever but with even greater purpose and intent since mid-June. There is little the eurodollar curve won’t spill information about, and its inversion around then was a huge warning that whatever shook the global money network on May 29 was indeed nothing to just ignore.

Money curves are supposed to be upward sloping reflecting the risks of a healthy environment, including economic opportunity. For it to be distorted to the point of being upside down, that’s big. People have a hard time interpreting regular curves, so unhealthy ones are much more a mystery (thanks to Economics).

The specific contracts displaying eurodollar’s version of oil contango were those out several years, the 2020’s to 2021’s. For a time, the inversion extended into 2022. For the few who noticed, this didn’t seem too much to be concerned about; a far distant probability of some nonspecific hedging case. Surely the world can be fixed given two or three years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hidden Amongst the Furore: Synchronised Warnings From the BIS and the IMF

December 20, 2018

Hidden Amongst the Furore: Synchronised Warnings From the BIS and the IMF

It has become a disconcerting trend that as geopolitical events intensify and keep a majority of people engaged in the latest outbreak of political theatre, the words of central bankers fall on increasingly deaf ears.

At a seminar of the European Stability Mechanism this month, Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens delivered a speech called, ‘Shelter from the Storm‘.

The speech can be summarised as follows:

The IMF may not have enough resources to manage a future financial crisis

The post 2008 ‘recovery’ was nurtured by central banks

Central bank intervention has coincided with the increased accumulation of debt in both major and emerging economies

The challenge for central banks is to meet their inflation target

Governments must quickly implement ‘growth-friendly structural reforms’ as monetary policy is ‘normalised’

The latter bullet point refers to Basel III, the regulatory reforms that were devised through the BIS in response to the financial crisis triggered in 2008. The BIS have been pushing the line in recent communications that without these reforms being fully implemented by national administrations, the financial system will remain vulnerable to a renewed downturn. Full adoption of the reforms is not due to occur until 2022.

Discussing the path to ‘normalisation‘ of monetary policy, Carstens states that central banks have ‘implemented normalisation steps very carefully‘:

They have been very gradual and highly predictable. Central banks have placed great emphasis on telegraphing their policy steps through extensive use of forward guidance.

Because of the gradual nature of the turn around from monetary accommodation to monetary tightening, central banks have avoided excess scrutiny. When market ructions do occur, as we have witnessed throughout 2018, geopolitical disorder has been held up as the leading cause. Central banks, as Bank of England governor Mark Carney recently put it, are ‘a side show‘.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Home Affordability: Canada vs. US

November 14, 2018

Home Affordability: Canada vs. US

Homes are unaffordable in the US, but the situation is far worse in Canada.

Point2homes has an interesting set of charts on Home Affordability In Canada vs the US.

Key Findings

The average Canadian has to dish out a whopping 56% more to buy a home, or 25% more to rent one compared to ten years ago, but the median wage in Canada only went up 15%.
The average home price in the U.S. increased at a much slower rate (24%), while the median income went up by 18%.
Since 2008, the Canadian dollar lost approximately 25% of its power compared to the American dollar, going from almost perfect parity to a much lower exchange rate.
The affordability crisis worsened in Canada, where the housing market went from “seriously unaffordable” to “severely unaffordable”, but the American housing market remained in the “seriously unaffordable” category.

Real Housing Prices

Eight years into the new millennium, the U.S. marched head first into one of the worst economic crises in its history following the bursting of the housing bubble. Canada’s real estate bubble hasn’t yet popped and the country has not yet seen a major decline in home prices, but the Canadian economy experienced its own share of turbulence following the oil price crash from 2014 and the burst of China’s speculative bubble.
And now, 10 years after the housing crisis that destabilized the U.S., some analysts claim that Canada faces a similar scenario if it stays the course: household debt currently exceeds 100% of GDP, according to data released by the Bank for International Settlements, the average home price went up 56% in ten years, while the median wage per household only increased 15% during the same period, and loose lending is on the rise.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The (ominous) problem with global liquidity

October 20, 2018

The (ominous) problem with global liquidity

Market liquidity is crucial for well-functioning capital markets. There has been a quite lot of talk about diminished market liquidity and the role of machines in it (see, e.g. Q-review 4/2017, this and this). These are worrying developments.

However, while market liquidity is crucial for markets, global financial flows, i.e. liquidity, is also essential to the real economy and for global economic growth. The availability of credit on a global basis fuels investments and growth around the world. Such financial flows fell by a massive 90 % during the 2008 crisis, which quickly translated into a global recession. Investment and consumption collapsed almost everywhere, with the exception of China where a massive credit stimulus was enacted.

Since then, there has been an uneven recovery. Cross-border bank lending has never really recovered (see Q-review 1/2017), but the issuance of vast amounts of government and corporate debt has taken its place. This creates a serious risk for the global real economy if highly over-valued capital markets crash.

The metamorphosis of global liquidity

In its recent quarterly report, the Bank of International Settlements, or BIS, raises three crucial points for global liquidity:

Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.
The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.
The composition of international credit has shifted from bank loans to debt securities.

Combined with the asset purchase programs of central banks (QE) these developments have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

Currently, non-banking institutions and households outside the US hold over 11.5 trillion worth of dollar-denominated debt—a record. The “shadow banking” sector could conceivably hold the same amount. This means that all policies affecting global dollar liquidity, will have a large effect on the global economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are Chinese Municipal $6 Trillion (40 Trillion Yuan) Hidden Debts Posing Titanic Risks?

October 19, 2018

Are Chinese Municipal $6 Trillion (40 Trillion Yuan) Hidden Debts Posing Titanic Risks?

The China Collapse trope is rearing its ugly head again. This time round, the spin is on China’s local government or municipal debts.

The latest narrative goes like this : local governments in China are estimated to have hidden debts of 40 trillion Yuan (or $6 trillion). Those hidden or undisclosed debts, together with outstanding municipal bonds and the Central government debts, “could have reached an alarming level of 60%”. The 60% debt to GDP ratio is hardwired in the Maastricht Treaty with a view to instilling fiscal and financial disciplines among the 28 member states of the European Union or EU 28 for short. The S&P report describes China’s hidden municipal debts as “a debt iceberg with titanic credit risks”!

Now, let’s unpack the opinion in the S&P report.

Estimates of China’s hidden municipal debts range from 8.9 trillion Yuan by Bank for International Settlements and 19.1 trillion Yuan by IMF to 23.6 trillion Yuan by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and 47 trillion Yuan by Tsinghua University Taxation and Finance Research Institute. There are 8 different estimates by 8 different institutions, with the median value of 30 trillion Yuan. S&P didn’t explain or justify its choice of 40 trillion Yuan, which is close to the top outlier of 47 trillion Yuan.

Based on the median value of 30 trillion Yuan in undisclosed municipal debts, the total Central government (13 trillion Yuan) and municipal debts (including the disclosed portion of 16 trillion Yuan) stood at 60 trillion Yuan (about $9 trillion) at end 2017. That works out to 73 % of China’s nominal GDP of 83 trillion Yuan ($12.4 trillion) in 2017.

The 60% debt to GDP prescription in Maastricht Treaty is more honored in the breach. The average debt to GDP ratio of EU 28 by end 2017 is 81.6%. Even the EU discipline master Germany’s 64% exceeds the 60% limit! The financial situation in a handful of EU states is precarious, even parlous. Their debt to GDP ratio is not just alarming, but downright frightening :

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World’s Most Important Bank Issues Urgent “Zombie Alert”

October 4, 2018

World’s Most Important Bank Issues Urgent “Zombie Alert”

It’s been a decade since the world’s major central banks reacted to the financial crisis by cheapening the value of money through record low, zero or negative rates.

What my research for my book Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World revealed was how central bankers and massive financial institutions have worked together to manipulate global markets for the past decade.

Major central banks gave themselves a blank check with which to resurrect problematic banks; purchase government, mortgage and corporate bonds; and in some cases — as in Japan and Switzerland — buy stocks, too.

They have not had to explain to the public where those funds were going or why. Instead, their policies have inflated asset bubbles while coddling private banks and corporations under the guise of helping the real economy.

The zero interest rate and bond-buying central bank policies prevailing in the U.S., Europe and Japan have been part of a coordinated effort that has plastered over potential financial instability in the largest countries and in private banks.

It has, in turn, created asset bubbles that could explode into an even greater crisis the next time around.

So today we stand near — how near we don’t yet know — the edge of a dangerous financial precipice. The risks posed by the largest institutions still exist, only now they’re even bigger than they were in 2007–08 and operating in an arena of even more debt.

Now the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), or the “central bank of central banks,” is sounding a new alarm on this policy.

In its recent quarterly report, the BIS warned that low rates have catalyzed an increase in the number of “zombie” firms. The number of such firms has now risen to an all-time high.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Beware The Zombies: BIS Warns That Non-Viable Firms Are Crippling Global Growth

September 23, 2018

Beware The Zombies: BIS Warns That Non-Viable Firms Are Crippling Global Growth

Ten years after central banks unleashed a period of record low interest rates, the central banks’ central bank is warning that this may not have been the smartest move.

In the latest quarterly review from the Bank of International Settlements, the Basel-based organization that oversees the world’s central banks warned that decades of falling interest rates have led to a sharp increase in the number of “zombie” firms, rising to an all time high since the 1980s, threatening economic growth and preventing interest rates from rising.

Zombie firms are defined as companies that are at least 10 years old, yet are unable to cover their debt service costs from profits, in other words the Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) is less than 1x for at least 3 consecutive quarters. These types of companies, which first gained attention in Japan decades ago and have since gained prevalence in Europe and, increasingly, the United States. According to a second definition, a requirement for a “zombie” is to have comparatively low expected future growth potential. Specifically, zombies are required to have a ratio of their assets’ market value to their replacement cost (Tobin’s q) that is below the median within their sector in any given year.

According to authors Ryan Banerjee and Boris Hofmann, zombie firms that fall under the two definitions are very similar with respect to their current profitability, but qualitatively different in their profitability prospects, which may be a function of how central banks have “broken” the market. Graph 1 below shows that, for non-zombie firms, the median ICR is over four times earnings under both definitions. As the majority of zombie firms make losses, the median ICRs are below minus 7 under the broad measure and around minus 5 under the narrow one, so this is hardly a surprise.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Weekly Commentary: BIS Annual Economic Report (for posterity)

July 8, 2018

Weekly Commentary: BIS Annual Economic Report (for posterity)

With attention focused on unfolding trade wars and summer vacations, the release of the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) Annual Report garnered scant notice (with the exception of Gillian Tett’s Thursday FT article, “Holiday Trading Lull Flashes Red for Financiers”).

From the BIS: “It is now 10 years since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) engulfed the world. At the time, following an unparalleled build-up of leverage among households and financial institutions, the world’s financial system was on the brink of collapse. Thanks to central banks’ concerted efforts and their accommodative stance, a repeat of the Great Depression was avoided. Since then, historically low, even negative, interest rates and unprecedentedly large central bank balance sheets have provided important support for the global economy and have contributed to the gradual convergence of inflation towards objectives.”

As we near the 10-year financial crisis anniversary, I would approach back slapping with caution. The key issue today is not whether central bank post-Bubble reflationary policies avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. Rather, did the unprecedented concerted – and protracted – global central bank response increase the likelihood of a more destabilizing future crisis – one where the dark forces of global depression might prove difficult to escape?

I’m not interested in bashing the BIS. They strive to have a balanced approach. Yet when reading through their insightful annual report it’s apparent that major holes remain in the contemporary central banking analytical framework. To their Credit, they do recognize the unprecedented buildup of global debt and imbalances. In my view, however, they fail to appreciate how central bankers these days continue fighting the last war.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

BIS Confirms Banks Use “Lehman-Style Trick” To Disguise Debt, Engage In “Window Dressing”

June 24, 2018

BIS Confirms Banks Use “Lehman-Style Trick” To Disguise Debt, Engage In “Window Dressing”

Several years ago we showed how the Fed’s then-new Reverse Repo operation had quickly transformed into nothing more than a quarter-end “window dressing” operation for major banks, seeking to make their balance sheets appear healthier and more stable for regulatory purposes.

As we described in article such as “What Just Happened In Today’s “Crazy” And Biggest Ever “Window-Dressing” Reverse Repo?”,Window Dressing On, Window Dressing Off… Amounting To $140 Billion In Two Days”, “Month-End Window Dressing Sends Fed Reverse Repo Usage To $208 Billion: Second Highest Ever“, “WTF Chart Of The Day: “Holy $340 Billion In Quarter-End Window Dressing, Batman“, “Record $189 Billion Injected Into Market From “Window Dressing” Reverse Repo Unwind” and so on, we showed how banks were purposefully making their balance sheets appear better than they really with the aid of short-term Fed facilities for quarter-end regulatory purposes, a trick that gained prominence first nearly a decade ago with the infamous Lehman “Repo 105.”

And this is a snapshot of what the reverse-repo usage looked like back in late 2014:

Today, in its latest Annual Economic Report, some 4 years after our original allegations, the Bank for International Settlements has confirmed that banks may indeed be “disguising” their borrowings “in a way similar to that used by Lehman Brothers” as debt ratios fall within limits imposed by regulators just four times a year, thank to the use of repo arrangements.

For those unfamiliar, the BIS explains that window-dressing refers to the practice of adjusting balance sheets around regular reporting dates, such as year- or quarter-ends and notes that “window-dressing can reflect attempts to optimise a firm’s profit and loss for taxation purposes.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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