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The Royal Bank of Scotland is telling clients that 2016 is going to be a “cataclysmic year” and that they should “sell everything”. This sounds like something that you might hear from The Economic Collapse Blog, but up until just recently you would have never expected to get this kind of message from one of the twenty largest banks on the entire planet. Unfortunately, this is just another indication that a major global financial crisis has begun and that we are now entering a bear market. The collective market value of companies listed on the S&P 500 has dropped by about a trillion dollars since the start of 2016, and panic is spreading like wildfire all over the globe. And of course when the Royal Bank of Scotland comes out and openly says that “investors should be afraid” that certainly is not going to help matters.

It amazes me that the Royal Bank of Scotland is essentially saying the exact same thing that I have been saying for months. Just like I have been telling my readers, RBS has observed that global markets “are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008″…

RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach US$16 a barrel.

The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008.

So what should our response be to these warning signs?

According to RBS, the logical thing to do is to “sell everything” excerpt for high quality bonds…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

January 1, 2016: The New Bank Bail-In System Goes Into Effect In Europe

December 29, 2015

January 1, 2016: The New Bank Bail-In System Goes Into Effect In Europe

If you have a bank account anywhere in Europe, you need to read this article. On January 1st, 2016, a new bail-in system will go into effect for all European banks. This new system is based on the Cyprus bank bail-ins that we witnessed a few years ago. If you will remember, money was grabbed from anyone that had more than 100,000 euros in their bank accounts in order to bail out the banks. Now the exact same principles that were used in Cyprus are going to apply to all of Europe. And with the entire global financial system teetering on the brink of chaos, that is not good news for those that have large amounts of money stashed in shaky European banks.

Below, I have shared part of an announcement about this new bail-in system that comes directly from the official website of the European Parliament. I want you to notice that they explicitly say that “unsecured depositors would be affected last”. What they really mean is that any time a bank in Europe fails, they are going to come after private bank accounts once the shareholders and bond holders have been wiped out. So if you have more than 100,000 euros in a European bank right now, you are potentially on the hook when that bank goes under…

The directive establishes a bail-in system which will ensure that taxpayers will be last in the line to the pay the bills of a struggling bank. In a bail-in, creditors, according to a pre-defined hierarchy, forfeit some or all of their holdings to keep the bank alive. The bail-in system will apply from 1 January 2016.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank Of Ireland Bans “Small” Cash Withdrawals At Branches

November 5, 2015

Bank Of Ireland Bans “Small” Cash Withdrawals At Branches

As central planners the world over grapple with the effective “lower bound” that’s imposed by the existence of physical banknotes, there’s been no shortage of calls for a ban on cash.

Put simply, if you eliminate physical currency, you also eliminate the idea of a floor for depo rates.

After all, if people can’t withdraw paper money and stash it under the mattress, then interest rates can be as negative as the government wants them to be in order to “encourage” consumption. If, for instance, you’re being charged 10% for saving your money, then by God you will probably spend that money rather than see the bank collect a double-digit fee just for holding on to your paycheck.

In the absence of physical cash, there’s no way for depositors to avoid that rather unpalatable outcome unless the public starts buying hard assets like commodities with their debit cards. If you think that sounds far-fetched, just consider the fact that everyone from Citi’s Willem Buiter to economist Ken Rogoff to the German Council Of Economic Experts’ Peter Bofinger have now floated the idea.

“With today’s technical possibilities, coins and notes are in fact an anachronism,” Bofinger told Spiegel back in May.

Now, in what should be a wake up call to the world, Bank of Ireland has banned branch withdrawals of less than €700.

Seriously.

Here’s The Irish Times explaining that tellers will still assist the “elderly” if they have trouble using automated methods of obtaining cash:

Under new rules, designed to streamline in-branch services, Bank of Ireland said withdrawals of less than €700 will no longer be facilitated with the assistance of tellers.

From mid-November, customers will have to use ATMs or mobile devices for small and modest-sized withdrawals.

Lodgements of up to €3,000 and those involving less than 15 cheques will also have to use the bank’s dedicated lodgement ATMs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Bank Caught Using Fake Gold As Reserve Capital

September 12, 2015

Russian Bank Caught Using Fake Gold As Reserve Capital

Over the past several years, incidents involving fake gold (usually in the form of gold-plated tungsten) have emerged every so often, usually involving Manhattan’s jewerly district, some of Europe’s bigger gold foundries, or the occasional billion dealer. But never was fake gold actually discovered in the form monetary gold, held by a bank as reserve capital and designed to fool bank regulators of a bank’s true financial state. This changed on Friday when Russia’s “Admiralty” Bank, which had its banking licenserevoked last week by Russia’s central bank, was reportedly using gold-plated metal as part of its “gold reserves.”

According to Russia’s Banki.ru, as part of a probe in the Admiralty bank, the central bank regulator questioned the existence of the bank’s reported quantity of precious metals held in reserve. Citing a source, Banki.ru notes that as part of its probe, instead of gold, the “regulator found gold-plated metal.”

The Russian website further adds that according to “Admiralty” bank’s financial statements, as of August 1 the bank had declared as part of its highly liquid assets precious metals amounting to 400 million roubles. The last regulatory probe of the bank was concluded in the second half of August, said one of the Banki.ru sources. Another source claims that as part of the probe, the auditor questioned the actual availability of the bank’s precious metals and found gold-painted metal.

The website notes that shortly before the bank’s license was revoked, the bank had offered its corporate clients to withdraw funds after paying a commission of 30%. This is shortly before Russia’s central bank disabled Admiralty’s electronic payment systems on September 7.

Admiralty Bank was a relatively small, ranked in 289th place among Russian banks in terms of assets. On August 1 the bank’s total assets were just above 8 billion roubles, while the monthly turnover was in the order of 40-55 billion rubles. The balance of the bank’s assets was poorly diversified: two-thirds of the bank’s assets (4.9 billion rubles) were invested in loans. The rest of the assets, about 30%, were invested in highly liquid assets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Signs Of Financial Turmoil In Europe, China And The United States

June 20, 2015

Signs Of Financial Turmoil In Europe, China And The United States

As we move toward the second half of 2015, signs of financial turmoil are appearing all over the globe. In Greece, a full blown bank run is happening right now. Approximately 2 billion euros were pulled out of Greek banks in just the past three days, Barclays says that capital controls are “imminent” unless a debt deal is struck, and there are reports that preparations are being made for a “bank holiday” in Greece. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are absolutely crashing. The Shanghai Composite Index was down more than 13 percent this week alone. That was the largest one week decline since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the U.S., stocks aren’t crashing yet, but we just witnessed one of the largest one week outflows of capital from the bond markets that we have ever witnessed. Slowly but surely, we are starting to see the smart money head for the exits. As one Swedish fund manager put it recently, everyone wants “to avoid being caught on the wrong side of markets once the herd realizes stocks are over-valued“.

I don’t think that most people understand how serious things have gotten already. In Greece, so much money has been pulled out of the banks that the European Central Bank admits that Greek banks may not be able to open on Monday…

The European Central Bank told a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Thursday that it was not sure if Greek banks, which have been suffering large daily deposit outflows, would be able to open on Monday, officials with knowledge of the talks said.

Greek savers have withdrawn about 2 billion euros from banks over the past three days, with outflows accelerating rapidly since talks between the government and its creditors collapsed at the weekend, banking sources told Reuters.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why We Are All Now Cypriots-to-bein the New Age of Bail-Ins

June 17, 2015

Why We Are All Now Cypriots-to-bein the New Age of Bail-Ins

According to the mostly ignored and hardly covered piece of newsfrom a couple of weeks ago, it turns out that 11 of the 28 European Union countries have been scolded by the European Commission for failing to implement a new set of rules intended to prop up failed banks. Known as the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), the stated purpose of the newly required rules is to purportedly protect taxpayers from having to cover the losses of any possible future bank failures, similar to the failures that occurred back in 2008. Taking the place of the more conventional taxpayer-funded “bail-outs,” banks would see their losses recapitalized with the newly-minted practice of the “bail-in.”

A bail-in, in case you aren’t familiar with it, is the emerging alternative to the well-known bail-out. Back in 2008 when a slew of “too big to fail” (TBTF) banks crumbled due to $147 barrels of oil and the bursting of the housing bubble, the entire financial system was put at risk and was deemed to be in need of a rescue. What occurred was an influx of money from outside sources to cover the bank losses, one example being the $700 billion life-line from the US government (which essentially means from the US taxpayer). This is known as a bail-out.

This differs from what occurred with the Cypriot banking system back in 2013, of which has since come to be known as a bail-in. In short, due to Cyprus’ insolvent banking system, all banks in the country were shut down under the “bank holiday” rubric, to go along with withdrawals being limited, if not completely cut off. Upon cessation of the bank holiday measures, it was announced by officials that all bank accounts in excess of €100,000 would have their balances reduced by 47.5% (also known as a “haircut”). As the practice now goes, confiscated bail-in funds are used to recapitalize failed banks, and the depositors who had their balances reduced essentially become owners of a bank that no one has much of an interest in owning.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The trouble with cash

May 15, 2015

The trouble with cash

When interest rates are zero and it costs a bank to look after your money it becomes an unattractive asset. Banks in some jurisdictions (such as Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden) are even charging customers interest on cash and deposits. And if you go to your bank and withdraw large amounts in the form of folding notes to avoid these charges you will be lucky if you are not treated as a sort of pariah. For the moment, at least, these problems do not extend to sound money, in other words gold.

There are two distinct issues involved with government-issued currency: zero-to-negative interest rates, which all but eliminate any interest turn on deposits for the banks, and a systemic issue that arises if too many people withdraw their money from the banking system. The problems with the latter would become significant if enough people decide to effectively opt out of holding money in the banks.

Conversion of bank deposits into physical cash increases reserve ratios, restricting the banks’ ability to create credit. However, while the banks are contractually obliged to supply physical cash to anyone who wants it, a drawdown on bank deposits is a bad thing from a central bank’s point of view. A desire for physical cash is, therefore, discouraged. Instead, if the option of owning physical cash was removed and there was only electronic money, deposits would simply be transferred from one bank to another and any imbalances between the banks resolved through the money markets, with or without the assistance of a central bank. The destabilising effects of bank runs would be eliminated entirely.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank Reserves and Loans: The Fed is Pushing On a String

May 7, 2015

Bank Reserves and Loans: The Fed is Pushing On a String

The money multiplier effect no longer works.

As you (hopefully) know, we live in a fractional reserve banking system: if the bank is required to have $1 in cash reserves for every $10 in loans, it means the bank creates $10 of new money when it issues a $10 loan. When the $10 loan is paid off, that money vanishes from the system.

At that point, the bank is insolvent, i,e, its losses exceed its assets.The problem with fractional reserve lending is the leverage. A 10-to-1 reserve ratio means that if the bank issues a $10 loan, the borrower defaults and the borrower’s collateral (home, auto, etc.) only fetches $8 on the open market, the bank lost $2, which is more than the bank’s cash reserves ($1).

In credit bubbles, the reserve requirements may reach absurd levels of leverage. At a reserve ratio of 100-to-1, a $2 loss of value in a $100 loan will push the bank into insolvency, as it only held $1 in cash as reserves against the $100 loan.

Reserve requirements and leverage are one set of constraints on new loans; the other constraint is the income, creditworthiness and willingness of the borrower.If households and businesses decide not to borrow more, regardless of the interest rate, then raising or lowering the reserve requirements will have no effect.

This is where the Federal Reserve finds itself today. The Fed is anxious to spark more lending/borrowing, and it has lowered interest rates to near-zero and made it easy for banks to build reserves–two things that in previous eras would have sparked increased borrowing.

But in our debt-saturated, stagnant-income era, the Fed is pushing on a string.Frequent contributor Dave P. explains why with the aid of two of his charts:

Banks can create new money, but only within the limits of the reserve requirements set by the Fed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Bank-State Bargain

April 2, 2015

The Bank-State Bargain

“I react pragmatically. Where the market works, I’m for that. Where the government is necessary, I’m for that. I’m deeply suspicious of somebody who says, “I’m in favor of privatization,” or, “I’m deeply in favor of public ownership.” I’m in favor of whatever works in the particular case.” J K Galbraith

There’s no getting away from it. Banks create money out of nothing when they extend loans and then charge borrowers interest on this newly created capital. The result is an ongoing multi-billion pound/ dollar subsidy breaking the basic rules of capitalism. What is perhaps even more surprising is that there appears to be no explicit description of the ‘bargain’ underlying this important arrangement. What follows is an exploration of elements of a possible rationale for an unspoken agreement.

Until quite recently there was surprisingly fierce argument over the way in which money is created. Thanks largely to determined and repeated enquiry by monetary reformers [1] and propogation of the issue via social media, there is now consensus over the role that private banks play in originating money in the form of loans, essentially ex-nihilo – out of thin air.

Recently the Bank of England somewhat belatedly broke their silence and joined this consensus via an in-house publication on the subject [2]. So we have a little light shining in on the phenomenon of which J.K. Galbraith in 1975 wrote: “The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.[3]”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Justice Department Rolls Out An Early Form Of Capital Controls In America

March 22, 2015

Justice Department Rolls Out An Early Form Of Capital Controls In America

Something stunning took place earlier this week, and it quietly snuck by, unnoticed by anyone as the “all important” FOMC meeting was looming. That something could have been taken straight out of the playbook of either Cyprus, or Greece, or the USSR “evil empire”, or all three.

This is how the WSJ explained it:

The U.S. Justice Department’s criminal head said banks may need to go beyond filing suspicious activity reports when they encounter a risky customer“The vast majority of financial institutions file suspicious activity reports when they suspect that an account is connected to nefarious activity,” said assistant attorney general Leslie Caldwell in a Monday speech, according to prepared remarks. “But, in appropriate cases, we encourage those institutions to consider whether to take more action: specifically, to alert law enforcement authorities about the problem.”

The remarks indicate that banks may be expected to do more than just file SARs, a responsibility that itself can be expensive and time-consuming.

Some banks already have close relationships with law enforcement, said Kevin Rosenberg, chair of Goldberg Lowenstein & Weatherwax LLP’s government investigation and white collar litigation group. Ms. Caldwell’s remarks “speak to moving forward in a more collaborative way,” said Mr. Rosenberg.

A tip-off from a bank about a suspicious customer could lead law enforcement to seize funds or start an investigation, Ms. Caldwell said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Puerto Rico’s 3rd Largest Bank Fails

February 27, 2015

Puerto Rico’s 3rd Largest Bank Fails

Based on Bloomberg data, Doral Bank is the 3rd largest (by assets) bank in Puerto Rico…or rather was. After a 58% collapse in the share price today, news broke after the close:

*PUERTO RICO’S DORAL BANK PLACED UNDER FDIC RECEIVERSHIP
*PUERTO RICO’S BANCO POPULAR AGREES TO BUY DORAL BANK OPERATIONS

Banco Popular will take the deposits (and 8 of Doral’s 26 branches) and the FDIC, aka America’s bad bank, eats the bad debt estimated to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), as in the US taxpayer, some $748.9 million.

3rd largest (by assets) Puerto Rico-domiciled bank based on BBG data….

The writing could perhaps have been on the wall…

And it seems the news of the FDIC Receivership leaked…

What happened is that the FDIC “fatf-fingered” the failure realase just before the market close, with the stock plunging as a reulst, then promptly retracted the release but the damage had already been done. After the close, the FDIC re-informed the public that the bank, which back in 2010 traded at $125, had indeed been liquidated.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Column: It Begins. Germany’s Banks Lower The Deposit Guarantee Scheme. | Sprout Money

November 10, 2014

Column: It Begins. Germany’s Banks Lower The Deposit Guarantee Scheme. | Sprout Money.

In a surprising move, the consortium of German banks has announced that the insured amounts under its mutual deposit guarantee will be lowered from January 2015 on. German newspaper Die Welt broke the news and even though this doesn’t change the state guarantee on deposits on savings accounts, banks seem to be finally giving up the idea that their mutual guarantee scheme will be able to cover collapsing banks.

The importance of this news shouldn’t be underestimated as the fund which has 165 members had to compensate bank clients in 30 cases since it was created, and according to industry experts, the bank fund was a very important reason why bank runs haven’t really occurred in Germany.

Until now, the banks’ mutual fund had to secure and guarantee at least 30% of the equity capital of the institutions, but this ratio will now be reduced to 20% in January 2015 and further reduced to 8.75% in 2025. This means that in for instance Deutsche Bank’s case which had an equity position of $70B, the mutual deposit guarantee scheme would no longer guarantee $21B, but just $6.1B from 2025 on and this is a serious reduction and actually undermines the credibility of the German banking system.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Did An Obscure IMF Document Start A Global Bail-In Revolution? by Daniel Amerman

October 19, 2014

Did An Obscure IMF Document Start A Global Bail-In Revolution? by Daniel Amerman.

When revolutions start, it’s not uncommon for almost nobody to notice. It may take years or even decades before historians can look back, point a finger and say “that’s where it really began.”

An obscure International Monetary Fund “Staff Discussion Note” may have already started a “Bail-In” financial revolution that could transform the global investment world.

In this quite remarkable document, the staff discusses a world where risks to the global financial system have not gone away – but are worse than ever. As candidly discussed, the “SIFI” (systemically important financial institution) problem has not been improving, but instead has been getting worse than ever – and there doesn’t appear to be any solution under existing contract law and bankruptcy law.

More risk than ever is concentrated in fewer financial institutions, while there is no way under existing law to unwind a failure of one of these institutions without risking triggering global financial chaos. Moreover, there is a deadly feedback loop between these “too-big-to-fail” institutions and sovereign governments. That is, as the IMF staff discusses, the bailing out of these massive institutions can bankrupt sovereign governments, and sovereign governments going bankrupt can wipe out the “too-big-to-fail” institutions.

So the IMF staff has come up with an audacious plan for how the globe can emerge from this seemingly impossible situation. The key word is “insurance”.

…click on link above to read the rest of the article…

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