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The Futility of Central Bank Policy
THE FUTILITY OF CENTRAL BANK POLICY It is only now becoming clear to the investing public that the purchasing power of their currencies is declining at an accelerating rate. There is no doubt that yesterday’s announcement that the US CPI rose by 6.2%, compared with the longstanding 2% target, came as a wake-up call to […]
Waypoints on the road to currency destruction — and how to avoid it
Waypoints on the road to currency destruction — and how to avoid it The few economists who recognise classical human subjectivity see the dangers of a looming currency collapse. It can easily be avoided by halting currency expansion and cutting government spending so that their budgets balance. No democratic government nor any of its agencies […]
A tale of two civilisations
A tale of two civilisations In recent years, America’s unsuccessful attempts at containing China as a rival hegemon has only served to promote Chinese antipathy against American capitalism. China is now retreating into the comfort of her long-established moral values, best described as a mixture of Confucianism and Marxism, while despising American individualism, its careless […]
Economic Theory and Long-Wave Cycles
ECONOMIC THEORY AND LONG-WAVE CYCLES Investors and others are confused by the early stages of accelerating price inflation. One misleading belief is in cycles of industrial production, such as Kondratieff’s waves. The Kondratieff cycle began to emerge in financial commentaries during the inflationary 1970s, along with other wacky theories. We should reject them as an […]
The Great Game moves on
The Great Game moves on Following America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, her focus has switched to the Pacific with the establishment of a joint Australian and UK naval partnership. The founder of modern geopolitical theory, Halford Mackinder, had something to say about this in his last paper, written for the Council on Foreign Relations in 1943. […]
The funny-money game
The funny-money game The sense of general unease that I detect among those I meet and discuss economics and financial matters with is increasing —with good reason. Clearly, what everyone calls inflation, rising prices or more accurately currency debasement, will lead to higher interest rates, threatening markets which are unmistakably in bubble territory. The consequences […]
Eurozone finances have deteriorated
Eurozone finances have deteriorated Despite negative interest rates and money printing by the European Central Bank, which conveniently allowed all Eurozone member governments to fund themselves, having gone nowhere Eurozone nominal GDP is even lower than it was before the Lehman crisis. Then there is the question of bad debts, which have been mostly shovelled […]
The dollar’s debt trap
The dollar’s debt trap On the fiftieth anniversary of the Nixon Shock, this article explains why fiat currencies have become joined at the hip to financial asset values. And why with increasing inevitability they are about to descend into the next financial crisis together. I start by defining the currencies we use as money and […]
The problem with climate change politics
The problem with climate change politics Climate change bears all the hallmarks of a state-sponsored crisis, useful to shift attention from other political failures. But the absence of financial accountability which characterises government actions also introduces behavioural errors. The absence of a profit motive in any state action exposes the relationship between governments and their […]
Suffering a sea-change
Suffering a sea-change There is an established theoretical relationship between bonds and equities which provides a framework for the future performance of financial assets. It would be a mistake to ignore it, ahead of the forthcoming rise in global interest rates.Price inflation is roaring, and so far, central banks are in denial. But it is […]
Whatever happened to that “imminent” banking crisis?
Whatever happened to that “imminent” banking crisis? In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, many of us in the hedge fund industry expected continuing fallouts from the unresolved imbalances that were papered over with monetary and fiscal stimuli by governments and central banks. These measures failed to address, let alone resolve the systemic causes […]
Inflation watch: Beware the ides of March
Inflation watch: Beware the ides of March President Biden has now had his $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed into law, and it will not be the last in the current fiscal year. Covid is not over and is sure to resurge with new variants next winter.But even assuming that is not the case, we still […]
Crazy days for money
Crazy days for money This article anticipates the end of the fiat currency regime and argues why its replacement can only be gold and silver, most likely in the form of fiat money turned into gold substitutes. It explains why the current fashion for cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, are unsuited as future mediums of exchange, […]
