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As the Madness Turns
As the Madness Turns A Growing Gap The first quarter of 2019 is over and done. But before we say good riddance. Some reflection is in order. To this we offer two discrete metrics. Gross domestic product and government debt. US nominal GDP vs total federal debt (in millions of USD) – government debt has […]
Extrapolating The Recent Past Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth
Extrapolating The Recent Past Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” remarked George Santayana over 100 years ago. These words, as strung together in this sequence, certainly sound good. But how to render them to actionable advice is less certain. George Santayana – purveyor of […]
Incrementum Inflation Signal Update – A Reversal To “Rising Inflation”
Incrementum Inflation Signal Update – A Reversal To “Rising Inflation” Introductory Remarks by PT We have discussed the proprietary Incrementum Inflation Indicator in these pages on previous occasions, but want to quickly summarize its salient features again. It is a purely market-based indicator, this is to say, its calculation is based exclusively on market prices […]
Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell
Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell Almost Predictable One of the more enticing things about financial markets is not that they’re predictable. Or that they’re not predictable. It’s that they’re almost predictable… or at least they seem they should be. For a long time people believed – and from what we read and hear, many […]
Drain, drain, drain…
Drain, drain, drain… Money from thin air going back whence it came from – circling the drain of a ‘no reinvestment’ black hole strategically placed in its way by the dollar-sucking vampire bat Ptenochirus Iagori Powelli. Our friend Michael Pollaro recently provided us with an update of outstanding Fed credit as of 26 December 2018. […]
The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions
The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions Darts in a Blizzard Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings. We bring words of doom and despair. We bring words of contemplation and reflection. And we also bring words of hope and sunshine. Famous […]
How Faux Capitalism Works in America
How Faux Capitalism Works in America Stars in the Night Sky The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have provoked much squawking and screeching. Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts all find themselves on the wrong side of the market’s swift movements. Even the best and brightest can’t escape […]
Paper Lanterns
Paper Lanterns Mud Volcanoes There are numerous explanations for just what in the heck is going on with the economy. Some are good. Many are bad. Today we’ll do our part to bring clarity to disorder… Two data series it is worth paying attention to at the moment: the unemployment rate (U3) and initial […]
A Global Dearth of Liquidity
A Global Dearth of Liquidity Worldwide Liquidity Drought – Money Supply Growth Slows Everywhere This is a brief update on money supply growth trends in the most important currency areas outside the US (namely the euro area, Japan and China) as announced in in our recent update on US money supply growth (see “Federal Punch […]
Debt, Death, and the US Empire
Debt, Death, and the US Empire Yosemite Sam Gets Worried About Federal Debt In a talk which garnered little attention, one of the Deep State’s prime operatives, National Security Advisor John Bolton, cautioned of the enormous and escalating US debt. Deep State operative John Bolton, a.k.a. Yosemite Sam [PT] Photo credit: Mark Wilson / […]
The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency
The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market “panic window” is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central […]
