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Is The U.S. Using Force To Sell Its LNG To The World?

Is The U.S. Using Force To Sell Its LNG To The World?

Middle East

The Trump Administration trade policy is nowhere so clear as in the energy area. For years it was thought that the younger Bush Administration was one of the most energy industry friendly in history. But the Trump Administration has gone far beyond that.

Hiring Ray Tillerson, the former CEO of ExxonMobil, as U.S. Secretary of State, sent a strong signal to the entire industry, even though his tenure proved to be temporary.

Prior to that, the Administration withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, a long-held priority of Exxon and the entire oil industry. Following hard upon that, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has reduced or eliminated regulations limiting carbon and other pollutants.

Exxon has for more than a decade underwritten the now discredited, right wing attack on climate change as a hoax. Although the energy industry has now publicly acknowledged climate change as a global threat, in practice the subject is still largely ignored.

Going further, the Trump Administration has removed and reduced regulations that hampered the industry expansion, including allowing drilling on both ocean coast, while easing safety regulations that were brought into effect after BP’s Gulf of Mexico disastrous spill, the worst in U.S. history.

Government protected nature preserves are being opened to exploration and drilling for the first time in generations. Added to that was the dropping of regulations that for many years prohibited export of U.S. crude. Since then, the U.S. has become a major player in the global energy industry.

The Administration currently plans to rescind and lower fuel efficiency standards for autos and trucks. That is likely to encourage increased purchase of larger SUVs, increased oil consumption, and rising gasoline prices.

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The Next Pillar Of Oil Demand Growth

The Next Pillar Of Oil Demand Growth

Petchem plant

The debate about peak oil demand always tends to focus on how quickly electric vehicles will replace the internal-combustion engine, especially as EV sales are accelerating. However, the petrochemical sector will be much more difficult to dislodge, and with alternatives far behind, petrochemicals will account for an increasing share of crude oil demand growth in the years ahead.

Petrochemicals don’t receive much attention in the media, but its fingerprints are everywhere. They are used in plastics, fertilizers, packaging, clothing, dyes, cleaning products, cosmetics, medicines, tires – a seemingly limitless number of end-uses. They are so ingrained and embedded into modern life that they are almost unnoticeable.

Producing the zillions of consumer and industrial products coming from petrochemicals requires huge volumes of feedstocks. Needless to say, as the name suggests, the feedstocks are derived from petroleum – oil and gas. Moreover, demand for petrochemicals is soaring, as hundreds of millions of people in emerging markets move into the middle class.

A new report from the International Energy Agency positions the petrochemical industry as one of the driving forces behind oil demand growth for the next few decades. “The growing role of petrochemicals is one of the key ‘blind spots’ in the global energy debate,” the IEA wrote. “The diversity and complexity of this sector means that petrochemicals receive less attention than other sectors, despite their rising importance.”

The IEA says that the petrochemical sector could account for more than a third of oil demand growth to 2030, and nearly half to 2050, “ahead of trucks, aviation and shipping.” Passenger vehicles are currently a major source of oil demand, but they will “diminish in importance thanks to a combination of better fuel economy, rising public transit, alternative fuels, and electrification.”

But petrochemicals are much more interwoven into modern life, and the alternatives are far less developed.

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US Demands For More Oil Could Backfire

US Demands For More Oil Could Backfire

drilling rig

This week the State Department accused OPEC of hiding spare capacity exceeding 1.4 million barrels daily. It urged the cartel to use it to stop the oil price rally that has continued uncomfortably close to midterm elections. The request—or demand, depending on your interpretation—is unprecedented and it might do more harm than good.

Bloomberg quoted a veteran energy analyst from Jefferies, Jason Gammel, as saying, “This is the lowest level of spare capacity in the global system relative to demand that I’ve ever seen. Spare capacity is moving to a precariously low point.” The problem is, nobody seems to be certain exactly how much OPEC’s spare capacity is.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA estimated OPEC’s spare production capacity at 1.66 million bpd. But the International Energy Agency last month estimated OPEC’s spare capacity at 2.7 million bpd and is fast declining. What we do know, however, is how much spare capacity Saudi Arabia has: 1.3 million bpd, as revealed by the Energy Minister of the Kingdom during the Russian Energy Week in Moscow.

This is bad news. Until now, various sources, including the Saudis themselves and the EIA, put the Kingdom’s spare capacity at between 1.5 and 2 million bpd. In June, President Trump said the Saudis could pump 12 million bpd. The IEA concurred. Saudi Arabia’s September production rate rose to 10.7 million bpd.

From this level of production, with 1.3 million bpd in spare capacity, we get a maximum production rate of 12 million bpd, indeed. However, Khalid al-Falih delivered a worrying message: Saudi Arabia will spend US$20 billion on maintaining and boosting its spare capacity in the coming years. The news naturally cast doubt on whether the current capacity will be sufficient to cover demand.

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IEA: Plastics Will Replace Fuels As Key Oil Demand Driver

IEA: Plastics Will Replace Fuels As Key Oil Demand Driver

Oil tanker

Plastics will displace fuels as the main driver for crude oil demand, the International Energy Agency said today, adding that petrochemicals will come to account for more than 33 percent of oil demand growth globally in the period to 2030. By 2050, they will drive half of the global oil demand growth, raising this demand by 7 million bpd by that year.

The report that contains the projection is titled The Future of Petrochemicals, and the IEA said it was part of a series of reports that aim to uncover “blind spots”, or facets of the global energy industry that receive less attention than they deserve.

Petrochemicals are indeed Big Oil’s big hope for the future—but the more distant future. Petrochemicals are used in thousands of products, with the biggest group among these being single-use plastic products. The bad news for oil is that green initiatives around the world are mounting, and many of them are targeting precisely this group of products. And yet, even if single-use plastic products are removed from the supply chain, enough demand will remain to drive the consumption of crude oil.

“Petrochemicals are one of the key blind spots in the global energy debate, especially given the influence they will exert on future energy trends,” IEA’s head, Fatih Birol, said. Petrochemicals are not just the plastics we see in single-use grocery bags. Petrochemical products are also essential in renewable energy installations such as solar panels and wind turbines, but also batteries, and thermal insulation, and thousands of other products and components.

The durability of petrochemicals demand is evident in the demand growth trends: the IEA says demand for plastics has almost doubled over the last 18 years, exceeding the demand growth rate of every other bulk material, including steel, aluminum, and cement. Perhaps more importantly, emerging markets have yet to catch up to developed ones in their plastics consumption. Now that’s a guarantee for steady demand in the future.

IEA Asks Majors Oil Producers To Boost Production

IEA Asks Majors Oil Producers To Boost Production

oil drilling

Rising oil prices are hurting consumers, Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), says, calling on major all producers to do the best they can to further boost production and ease persistent supply concerns that pushed Brent Crude to above $86 a barrel on Wednesday.

“Some countries have been making efforts to increase production but this is far from comforting the markets right now,” Birol told the Financial Times on Thursday, adding that his “hope is that all the producers are aware of the sensitive situation and make their best efforts.”

Although higher energy prices may look like a boon for oil exporting countries today, tomorrow the economies of oil exporters will also suffer because of the lower demand growth stemming from high oil prices, Birol told FT.

In an interview with Reuters, also today, Birol said that:

“It is now high time for all the players, especially those key producers and oil exporters, to consider the situation and take the right steps to comfort the market, otherwise I don’t see anybody benefiting.”

Earlier this week, the IEA chief also took to Twitter to comment on the oil price rally in recent weeks and its implications on global economy.

“Rising oil prices are hurting consumers & economic growth prospects today – globally but particularly in the emerging economies – but in a rapidly changing energy world could also have implications for producers tomorrow,” Birol tweeted on Tuesday. Related: A New Era Of LNG Megaprojects

U.S. President Donald Trump has also used Twitter several times this year to slam OPEC for keeping oil prices too high.

Birol’s comments on oil prices and what oil producers should do come just after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier this week that Saudi Arabia would be pumping 10.7 million bpd in October—just below the Kingdom’s highest-ever production level—and would slightly raise production volumes in November.

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Venezuela’s Oil Exports Are Falling Even Faster Than Expected

Venezuela’s Oil Exports Are Falling Even Faster Than Expected

Tanquero

A delay in port repairs following a tanker collision is putting additional pressure on already pressured Venezuelan crude oil exports, Reuters quoted anonymous sources close to PDVSA as saying this week. It seems that Venezuela’s woes are only multiplying as time goes by, although news from official Caracas sources seems more upbeat. Oil, however, appears at the forefront of Venezuela’s plight.

A dock at Venezuela’s biggest oil port, Jose, was closed in late August after a tanker collided with it. At the time, Reuters reported that the repairs would delay the delivery of 5 million barrels of crude, destined for Rosneft, which, according to the news outlet, could put a strain on relations between the Russian company and PDVSA, which have a money-for-oil agreement. This is only the latest in PDVSA’s troubles with its oil exports.

Besides a steady decline in production, Venezuela’s state-run oil company earlier this year ran into problems with its storage capacity and export terminals in the Caribbean as U.S.-based ConocoPhillips took an aggressive approach to enforcing a court ruling that awarded it US$2 billion in compensation for the forced nationalization of two projects in Venezuela. The company this summer seized several of PDVSA’s assets on Caribbean islands, which made it difficult for the Venezuelan state company to meet its export obligations. Having few options, PDVSA eventually caved, settling with Conoco.

Dock repairs are further complicating matters. PDVSA is supposed to deliver to Rosneft some 4 million bpd of crude under the latest bilateral agreement signed this April. On top of that, it normally exports crude for U.S. Valero Energy and Chevron from the same dock, the South dock of the Jose port, which is responsible for processing processes as much as 70 percent of the country’s crude oil exports.

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$200 Billion Saudi Solar Megaproject Might Never Happen

$200 Billion Saudi Solar Megaproject Might Never Happen

Solar park

A $200-billion solar power project that was planned to be the largest solar farm in the world might never happen, government sources from Riyadh told the Wall Street Journal.

The Kingdom earlier this year announced the funding and a partnership with Japanese SoftBank as part of its Vision 2030 economic reform plan that also involves a US$500-billion smart city project.

The solar project would have had installed capacity of 200 GW by 2030 and could have created as many as 100,000 jobs. However, the WSJ sources said, nobody is working on the project and the government is planning another set of renewable energy initiatives, to be made public later this month. Those new initiatives, the sources added, would be more practical.

While some might see the news as a decision made due to changing circumstances—oil prices, for one—others would not need long to recall the shelving of what was to be the biggest IPO in history, of Saudi Aramco. Initially scheduled for the second half of this year, the listing was delayed several times before the delay became indefinite.

The Oil Industry Needs Large New Discoveries, Very Soon

The Oil Industry Needs Large New Discoveries, Very Soon

Transocean

Market participants and analysts are all focused on the imminent oil supply gap that is opening with the U.S. sanctions on Iran just five weeks away.

But beyond the shortest term, a larger and more alarming gap in global oil supply is looming—experts forecast that unless large oil discoveries are made soon, the world could be short of oil as early as in the mid-2020s.

The latest such prediction comes from energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which sees a supply gap opening up in the middle of the next decade. At the current level of low oil discoveries and barring technology breakthrough beyond WoodMac’s assumptions, that supply gap could soar to 3 million bpd by 2030, to 7 million bpd by 2035, and to as much as 12 million bpd by 2040.

It’s not that discoveries aren’t being made, they just aren’t enough to offset the natural decline at mature fields while global oil demand is still expected to continue to rise.

The main reason for lower discoveries is that spending on exploration has drastically plunged since the 2014 oil price crash. The good news is, according to Wood Mackenzie, that the volume of new discoveries is correlated with spending on exploration. So if spend were to increase, the chance of more and major oil discoveries gets higher.

As early as the beginning of this year, WoodMac said that the share of exploration of upstream investment has slipped to below 10 percent since 2016 and is not about to recover. “This could be the new normal, with the days of one dollar in six or seven going to exploration forever in the past,” the consultancy said in its ‘5 Things to look for in 2018.’

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Europe Prepares For Natural Gas Price Hike

Europe Prepares For Natural Gas Price Hike

Europe

Europe’s natural gas and electricity markets are heading into the winter heating season with prices at record highs amid various supply outages in already tight markets and uncertainty over how much flexibility in gas and power generation there will be.

Forward prices for natural gas are factoring in a winter risk premium in the currently tight market, highlighting the concern that another supply outage could strain the market further and send prices even higher, according to an S&P Global Platts analysis.

Yet, the key factor determining Europe’s gas and power demand this winter will be something that no market can control—weather. Forecasts suggest that the start to the winter in Europe would be mild.

Last winter’s start was also mild, before the Beast from the East swept through Europe at the end of the season, causing one of the coldest winters this decade, squeezing natural gas supplies across Western Europe, and sending prices soaring.

The cold spell in Europe at the end of February and early March led to record withdrawals in the first quarter of 2018, and storage levels dropped to 18 percent of capacity—well below the five-year range, the European Commission (EC) said in its Q1 Quarterly Report on European gas markets.

In the summer, natural gas prices in the UK surged to the highest for a summer season, with Europe’s natural gas market the most bullish in years, as higher-than-expected summer demand and a tighter market drove natural gas price futures to levels last seen during this past winter’s supply crunch. After touching their highest levels for a summer season, natural gas futures prices in Northwest Europe have continued to rise in anticipation of tightening supply as winter is approaching.

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How Much Spare Capacity Does Saudi Arabia Really Have?

How Much Spare Capacity Does Saudi Arabia Really Have?

Hawtah field

Saudi Arabia has pledged to cover any supply gap that may emerge as Iranian oil goes offline, but how much spare capacity does it really have?

The massive reserve of spare capacity located in the Saudi desert is the stuff of legend, taken as gospel in the world of oil. After all, Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world that can ramp up or down millions of barrels of production on short notice. And the Saudis have never let us down.

But Saudi Arabia’s mythical spare capacity may finally be tested. Saudi officials insist that they can produce up to between 12.0 and 12.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) if needed. With output at about 10.4 mb/d in August, the latest month for which data is available, that suggests that they have around 1.5 to 2 mb/d of spare capacity.

Not everyone buys that figure. Indeed, the precise amount of spare capacity has been the subject of much debate for years and even decades. Now, because Iranian supply is going offline at a rapid clip, the world may soon find out if Saudi Arabia’s confidence is backed up by reality or if it has all been a bunch of bluster.

The EIA says that total OPEC spare capacity is set to average 1.49 mb/d in the fourth quarter, which is rather low by historical standards. The EIA sees OPEC spare capacity falling to 1.19 mb/d by the fourth quarter of 2019.

There are a few times in the relatively recent past when spare capacity was that low, including two years ago, when spare capacity plunged to 1 mb/d. However, this was during the depths of the oil market downturn, and it was a reflection of Saudi Arabia producing flat out in order to flood the market in an attempt to edge out U.S. shale. Spare capacity was low, but there was a glut of supply.

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Outages Could Threaten New England’s Gas Market

Outages Could Threaten New England’s Gas Market

NatGas

After frequent rescheduling and downgrading, including a last-minute delay after market close last Friday, September 21, New England’s main natural gas pipeline, Algonquin Gas Transmission (AGT), may finally run their biggest maintenance event of the year in terms of impact and duration. From September 25 through October 12, Algonquin will conduct an outage between its Stony Point (NY) and Oxford (CT) compressors.

The outage reduces operational capacity at the Stony Point compressor from 1,141 MMcf/d to 744 MMcf/d for the duration of the event. While AGT reported average flows of 1,110 MMcf/d through Stony Point over the last two weeks, implied flows including no-notice nominations show Stony Point averaging 1,274 MMcf/d, meaning this event will cut over ~0.5 Bcf/d of mainline flows relative to the previous two-week average. Assessing previous years’ flows through Stony is somewhat tricky because of recent years’ restrictions for the Algonquin Incremental Market (AIM) expansions, but Summer ’18 Stony Point flows are well above the five-year average, once adjusted for no-notice. The outage also limits the Oxford compressor to a capacity of 867 MMcf/d.

(Click to enlarge)

Algonquin Gas Transmission mainline as illustrated in Genscape’s Natural Gas RT platform.

(Click to enlarge)

Stony Point Compressor Station to Oxford outage from August 21, 2018 through September 22, 2018.

(Click to enlarge)

Stony Point flows are well above the five-year average this September.

Stony Point is the main constraint point for the AGT mainline, meaning this event brings significant upside risk to AGT Citygate prices and downstream demand. Mainline demand will rely on supply interconnects downstream of Stony Point; including Everett liquefied natural gas (LNG), the Salem Essex interconnect with Maritimes, and the Lincoln and Mendon interconnects with Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP). AGT also notified preemptively declaring an operational flow order (OFO) effective on Monday, heavily penalizing shippers for imbalances. Algonquin also plans to suspend its no-notice service beginning on September 25 and lasting for the duration of the maintenance.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Trump Eyeing A Coup In Venezuela?

Is Trump Eyeing A Coup In Venezuela?

Maduro PDVSA

The Trump administration and some others in the U.S. government have sent some not-so-subtle hints lately that they are open to a military invasion of Venezuela to oust President Nicolas Maduro.

“It’s a regime that frankly could be toppled very quickly by the military, if the military decides to do that,” President Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.

The words seem to offer some encouragement for a coup, which may not come as a surprise because the New York Times published an investigation in early September that found that the Trump administration met secretly with Venezuelan military officers over the last year to discuss an overthrow of Maduro.

Venezuela is in tatters and there have been previous signs that Maduro’s grip is tenuous, including the renegade helicopter pilot earlier this year and the bizarre scene in which drones exploded during a military parade in August near Maduro.

In other words, the threat of a coup has been rising for some time.

But more recently, there have been louder murmurings in Washington and beyond. Bloomberg noted that Fernando Cutz, a former member of the National Security Council, said that a multilateral military invasion of Venezuela might be the best solution. Also, some prominent Venezuelan dissidents and former officials have supported regime change. Florida Senator Marco Rubio said there is a “very strong argument” for such a move. Then there were Trump’s comments in New York at the UN.

Some cautious, but notably receptive comments to an invasion or coup came from officials at the Organization of American States and in the Colombian government, Bloomberg pointed out. Also, Trump is expected to bring in some officials to his government that are notably hawkish in regards to Venezuela.

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The Inevitable Oil Supply Crunch

The Inevitable Oil Supply Crunch

oil

“The warning signs are there – the industry isn’t finding enough oil.”

That’s the start of a new report from Wood Mackenzie, which concludes that a supply gap could emerge in the mid-2020s as demand rises at a time when too few new sources of supply are coming online. By 2030, there could be a supply shortfall on the order of 3 million barrels per day (mb/d), WoodMac argues. By 2035, it balloons to 7 mb/d, and by 2040, it reaches 12 mb/d. “Barring technology breakthrough beyond what we already assume, we’ll need new oil discoveries,” the report says.

The seeds of the problem were sown during the oil market downturn that began in 2014. Global upstream exploration spending plunged from $60 billion in 2014 to just $25 billion in 2018, according to WoodMac. Unsurprisingly, that translated into a steep decline in new discoveries. In the early part of this decade, the oil industry was discovering around 8 billion barrels of oil annually. That figure has plunged by three quarters since 2014.

The precise figures vary, but Rystad Energy came a similar conclusion, noting that the total volume of new oil and gas reserves discovered plunged to a record low in 2017. “We haven’t seen anything like this since the 1940s,” Sonia Mladá Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a December 2017 statement. “The most worrisome is the fact that the reserve replacement ratio in the current year reached only 11% (for oil and gas combined) – compared to over 50% in 2012.”

This year, the industry has had a bit more success. Spending is on the rebound and new discoveries are on track to rise by about 30 percent, although that is heavily influenced by the developments in Guyana, where ExxonMobil and Hess Corp. have reported nearly a dozen discoveries, and hope to ramp up production to around 750,000 bpd by 2025.

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$100 Oil Is A Distinct Possibility

$100 Oil Is A Distinct Possibility

oil storage

An oil price spike is starting to look increasingly possible, with a rerun of 2008 not entirely out of the question, according to a new report.

The outages from Iran are worse than most analysts expected, and bottlenecks in the U.S. shale patch could prevent non-OPEC supply from plugging the gap. To top it off, new regulations from the International Maritime Organization set to take effect in 2020 could significantly tighten supplies.

Put it all together, and “the likelihood of an oil spike and crash scenario akin to the one observed in 2008 has increased,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note. BofAML has a price target for Brent at $95 per barrel by the end of the second quarter 2019. In 2008, Brent spiked to nearly $150 per barrel.

The supply picture is looking increasingly worrying, with Venezuela and Iran the two principal factors driving up oil prices in the fourth quarter. Notably, the bank increased its estimate of supply losses from Iran 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), up from 500,000 bpd previously.

U.S. shale can partially make up the difference, but the explosive growth from shale drillers is starting to slowdown, in part because of pipeline bottlenecks. BofAML sees U.S. supply growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2018 but only 1 mb/d of growth in 2019.

That means that there isn’t the same upward pressure on WTI as there is on Brent, largely because infrastructure bottlenecks in the shale patch keep supplies somewhat stuck within the United States. And it isn’t just in West Texas where the constraints are causing problems. “[B]ottlenecks in the Permian basin could well extend to other areas such as the Bakken or the Niobrara, and we do not even rule out temporary export capacity constraints in the Gulf Coast as domestic output overwhelms logistics,” BofAML said in a note.

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Is The Bakken Close To Breaking?

Is The Bakken Close To Breaking?

Bakken

While the Permian has experienced a drilling boom and has received tons of media attention, a lesser-known but still remarkable revival has been underway in the Bakken this year. At the same time, the increased rates of drilling in North Dakota are starting to reveal signs of strain on the basin, as drillers are increasingly forced into less desirable locations.

The Bakken was hit harder than the Permian during the oil market downturn that began in 2014, with rigs and capital diverted away from North Dakota and rerouted to West Texas. Oil production hit a temporary peak in late 2014 at 1.26 million barrels per day (mb/d), declining for much of the next two years.

However, production began to rise again in early 2017 before accelerating this year. In October, the EIA expects Bakken production to hit 1.33 mb/d, a new record high.

In some ways, the Bakken is enjoying a bit of a revival because the Permian has become overcrowded. The pipeline bottleneck, the strain on rigs and equipment, completion services, labor, water and even on road traffic has caused a lot of headaches for shale drillers in West Texas. Some shale executives have decided to shift resources elsewhere, and the Bakken has received a boost as a result.

The Bakken took over as the most profitable place for shale drillers on average this summer, at least temporarily surpassing the Permian. That may not last as the steep discounts for WTI in Midland drags down the profitability of the Permian, a situation that will resolve itself over the next few years as pipelines come online. But the improved outlook for the Bakken is notable nonetheless.

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