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Poison Money

BALTIMORE – We live in a world of sin and sorrow, infected by a fraudulent democracy, Facebook, and a corrupt money system. Wheezing, weak, and weary from the exertion of trying to appear “normal,” the economy staggers on.

David-Simonds-zombie-high-011 Staggering on…. Image credit: David Sidmond

Last week, we gained some insight into the ailment. Something in the diagnosis has puzzled us for years: How is it possible for the most advanced economy in the history of the world to make such a mess of its most basic bodily functions – getting and spending?

By our calculations – backed by studies, hunches, and deep research – the typical American man (it is less true for women) earns less in real, disposable income per hour today than he did 30 years ago.

He goes to buy a car or a house, and he finds he must work longer to pay the bill than he would have in the last years of the Reagan administration. How is that possible? What kind of economic quackery do you need to stop capitalism from increasing the value of workers’ time?

What kind of policies and circumstances are required to stiffen its joints… clog up its innards… and rot its brain? Globalization? Financialization? Bad trade deals? Too much red tape? Too many cronies? Too many zombies?

nonsequitor_cartoon_comic_first-economist We can identify at least one source of the quackery…

All of those things played a role. But our answer is simpler: poison money. The bigger the dose… the sicker it got. When you say you “have some money,” you usually believe that there is, somewhere, an electronic database in which it is recorded that you are the owner of some amount of currency.

You have $100,000 in your account, right? Does it mean that there is a little cubbyhole somewhere, with your name on it, in which you will find a stack of 1,000 Ben Franklins? Nope. Not even close. No cubbyhole. No stack of money. No nothing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

TPP ‘worst trade deal ever,’ says Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

April 1, 2016

TPP ‘worst trade deal ever,’ says Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

Trans-Pacific Partnership should be redone to advance interests of citizens, not corporations, he says

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the Trans-Pacific Partnership may well be the worst trade agreement ever negotiated, and he recommends Canada insist on reworking it.

“I think what Canada should do is use its influence to begin a renegotiation of TPP to make it an agreement that advances the interests of Canadian citizens and not just the large corporations,” he said in an interview with CBC’s The Exchange on Thursday.

Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University in New York, was a keynote speaker at a conference at the University of Ottawa on Friday about the complex trade deal.

Stiglitz takes issue with the TPP’s investment-protection provisions, which he says could interfere with the ability of governments to regulate business or to move toward a low-carbon economy.

Multinationals have right to sue

It’s the “worst part of agreement,” he says, because it allows large multinationals to sue the Canadian government.

“It used to be the basic principle was polluter pay,” Stiglitz said. “If you damaged the environment, then you have to pay. Now if you pass a regulation that restricts ability to pollute or does something about climate change, you could be sued and could pay billions of dollars.”

There were similar provisions in North American Free Trade Agreement that led to the Canadian government being sued, but the TPP goes even further.

He said the provision could be used to prevent raising of minimum wages or to overturn rules that prevent usury or predatory lending practices.

Stiglitz argues the deal, which is a 6,000-page mammoth and extremely complex, should have been negotiated openly.

“This deal was done in secret with corporate interests at the table,” he said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is A Gas War Between The U.S. And Canada About To Start?

March 30, 2016

Is A Gas War Between The U.S. And Canada About To Start?

The United States and Canada work well together. The countries share the world’s largest and most comprehensive trade relationship, exchanging more than $2 billion per day in goods and services; the U.S. is Canada’s largest foreign investor and Canada is the third-largest foreign investor in the U.S. The partnership clearly isn’t broken, but it may need some mending as bilateral and international gas trade stands to complicate matters in short order.

As with most current global natural gas issues, we must first look back to the shale gas revolution. In 2005 – just as hydraulic fracturing was finding its feet in the Barnett shale – piped supplies from Canada met nearly 17 percent of total U.S. natural gas demand. By year’s end 2015 – with U.S. production some 50 percent higher – imports from Canada dipped below 10 percent of consumption.

For Canadian producers, rising U.S. production is just one of a series of issues in what is a multifaceted and evolving problem: they struggle to compete. Of course, the resulting, and thus far persistent low prices are another. Canadian natural gas deliverability has taken a large hit as prices have moved below the supply cost of most new natural gas developments. Total production dippedslightly in 2015, though Alberta and British Columbia (BC) provinces – the Montney and Duvernay shales – proved resilient.

While non-core plays will continue to struggle, the NGL-rich and relatively low-cost gas from the Montney looks to drive a rebound in 2016. Led by Petronas (Progress Energy Canada), Canadian Natural Resources, ARC Resources, and Encana as well as smaller-cap producers like Painted Pony Petroleum, marketed production from Alberta and BC is projected to grow approximately 2 and 6 percent respectively this year. Across all provinces and territories, Canadian production is slated to rise nearly 2.5 percent, to just over 15.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

First Ocean Freight Rates Collapse to “Zero,” China Freight Index Plunges to Record Low, Bailouts Loom

March 30, 2016

First Ocean Freight Rates Collapse to “Zero,” China Freight Index Plunges to Record Low, Bailouts Loom

The next stage of “Moral Hazard?”

The amount it costs to ship containers from China to ports around the world has plunged to historic lows. As container carriers are sinking deeper into trouble, whipped by lackluster global demand and rampant oversupply of container ships, they’re escalating a brutal price war with absurd consequences.

Maritime research and advisory firm Drewry (emphasis mine):

Recent news stories, backed up by anecdotal stories told to Drewry, report that carriers have quoted zero dollar freight rates to some forwarders on certain lanes out of Asia. Whether these are merely isolated cases or something more widespread is difficult to judge at the present time, but whatever the exact quantum, there is no denying the container rates are now close to the historic lows as seen in 2009.

The World Container Index, an average of spot freight rates on 11 global East-West routes connecting Asia, Europe, and the US, plunged last week to a record low of $666 per 40-foot equivalent unit container (FEU), down 73% from mid-2012!

The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) tells a similar story. It tracks contractual and spot-market rates for shipping containers from major ports in China to 14 regions around the world. On Friday, the index dropped 1.6% to 659.19, its lowest level ever!

It has plunged 39% from February last year and 34% since its inception in 1998 when it was set at 1,000:

China-Containerized-Freight-Index-2016-03-25

Shippers and their customers are rejoicing for the moment. But the collapse in shipping rates – to “zero” in some cases, as Drewry reported – is taking its toll on the industry.

The risk of carrier bankruptcies – with the awkward side effect of stranded cargo – increases, according to Drewry, “the longer rates remain non-remunerative, while carriers will likely intensify practices such as void sailings in order to minimize the chance of that eventuality.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All is Not Well

March 28, 2016

All is Not Well

The 1987 stock market crash raised concerns for the dangers associated with mounting U.S. “twin deficits.” Fiscal and trade deficits were reflective of poor economic management. Credit excesses – certainly including excessive government borrowings – were stimulating demand that was reflected in expanding U.S. trade and Current Account Deficits. Concerns dissipated with the revival of the bull market. These days we’re confronting the consequences of 30-plus years of mismanagement.

Japan was the early major recipient of U.S. Bubble excess (throughout the eighties). The world today would be a much different place if the policy onus had fallen upon the Fed and congress to rein in U.S. borrowing excesses. Instead, enormous pressure was placed on Japan (and, later, others) to ameliorate trade surpluses with the U.S. by stimulating domestic demand. Such stimulus measures were instrumental in (repeatedly) stoking already powerful Bubbles to precarious extremes.

Fiscal and Current Account Deficits exploded in the early-nineties post-Bubble period. And as the nineties reflation gathered momentum, the boom in Wall Street and GSE finance pushed the Current Account to previously unimaginable extremes. Then, as the decade progressed, the associated global boom in dollar-based finance proved ever more destabilizing. Always ignoring root causes, each new crisis provided an excuse to further stimulate/inflate.

The fundamentally unsound dollar proved pivotal for European monetary integration, as the strong euro currency coupled with global liquidity abundance ensured runaway Bubble excesses throughout Europe’s periphery. If the U.S. could run perpetual Current Account Deficits, why not Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal? Having ignored problematic financial and economic imbalances for years, when European troubles erupted everyone turned immediately to pressure the big surplus economy (Germany) to further stimulate their Bubble economy.

Economists traditionally viewed persistent Current Account Deficits as problematic. But as New Paradigm and New Era thinking took hold throughout the nineties, all types of justification and rationalization turned conventional analysis on its head.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Do Canadians Think about TPP? US Might Not Care

March 24, 2016

What Do Canadians Think about TPP? US Might Not Care

American demands would likely trump our concerns about mega trade deal.

The Liberal government has launched a much-anticipated public consultation on the TPP. But will it matter? arindambanerjee / Shutterstock.com.

The Trans Pacific Partnership, a massive trade deal that covers 40 per cent of the world’s GDP, has mushroomed into a political hot potato in the United States. Presidential candidates Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are all expressing either opposition or concern with the agreement. With the deal in doubt in the U.S., the Canadian government is using the uncertainty to jump-start a much-anticipated and long-overdue public consultation.

Earlier this month, the Standing Committee on International Trade announced plans for hearings to be held across the country and invited all Canadians to provide written submissions by the end of the April. When added to the open call for comments from Global Affairs Canada, the government department that negotiated the TPP, the public has an important opportunity to have its voice heard on a trade deal that could impact virtually every aspect of the Canadian economy.

The national consultation comes as a growing number of Canadian business leaders express concerns with the agreement. Jim Balsillie, the former co-CEO of Research In Motion, has garnered considerable media attention for his criticisms, and others have joined him in recent weeks, including Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke and Ford Canada CEO Dianne Craig.

Yet just as Canadians begin to grapple with fine print of the 6,000 page agreement, it has become increasingly clear that Canada will face stiff opposition from the U.S. if it seeks to exercise flexibility in how it implements the deal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Who Killed the Electric Car?

March 23, 2016

Who Killed the Electric Car?

[ Who cares about electric CARS? Civilization ends when trucks stop running, and trucks can’t run on batteries because they’re too heavy (93% of the cargo weight, 25% of the cargo space), and an all-electric truck fleet would require thousands of new power plants, mostly running on finite fossil fuels. Although Wall street can endlessly come up with new financial products to skim the wealth of the middle class, scientists have to work within the laws of physics and thermodynamics. This is the main reason why even a car battery is not likely to ever pan out, as I explain below. A more up-to-date version of this post on batteries, and electrifying trucks and locomotives can be found in my book, which also explains why it may be impossible to have an 80 to 100 percent electric grid depending on renewables. We face not just a fossil fuel shortage, but an electricity shortage in the future, which will strike once natural gas declines to the point it can’t keep the grid balanced. Since natural gas is very local because the USA has few LNG terminals, this may come sooner than expected. Despite the hype about 100 to 200 years of energy independence promised by many economic pundits, Patzek in his lifeitself blog makes the case that there may be only 3 to 7 years of shale gas in the Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville and Marcellus shales. The decline of conventional natural gas was at a crisis point in 2004 and conventional gas has continued to decline since then. ]

The battery did it. Batteries are far too expensive for the average consumer, $600-1700 per kwh (Service). And they aren’t likely to get better any time soon.

“The big advances in battery technology happen rarely. It’s been more than 200 years and we have maybe 5 different successful rechargeable batteries,” said George Blomgren, a former senior technology researcher at Eveready (Borenstein).

And yet hope springs eternal. A better battery is always just around the corner:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2016, The Year Of The Red Monkey: Expect Wild, Unending Volatility

March 14, 2016

2016, The Year Of The Red Monkey: Expect Wild, Unending Volatility

The past 25 years of “growth” and brief recessions may not be a good guide to the next few years.

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey.

I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

“According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship.”

(Source)

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey.

For those who don’t believe in astrological forecasts, there are plenty of other reasons to anticipate sustained volatility in 2016 that strips certainty and cash from bulls and bear alike.

What’s the Source of Volatility?

Why are global markets now so volatile? The basic answer is as obvious as it is officially verboten: the global growth story is unraveling, and central banks and governments are increasingly desperate to re-ignite stagnating growth.

When solid evidence of flagging trade, sales and profits surfaces, markets drop. When central banks and states talk up monetary and fiscal stimulus, markets leap higher, as seven years of stimulus programs have rewarded those who “buy the dips.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Always Watched, Always Monitored, Always Recorded

March 2, 2016

Always Watched, Always Monitored, Always Recorded

Trade Slump

BALTIMORE – When we left you yesterday, we were discussing the War on Cash – the push by governments to abolish physical currency. It is a fraud. The idea is not to fight crime or boost the economy, as its proponents claim. It is part of a bigger campaign by the Deep State to take more control over your money… and your life.

We’ll return to our theme in a moment. But first… an update on the markets and the economy. It came out last week that world trade did indeed fall in 2015. It was the first time this had happened since 2009.

CAT The decline in sales of “yellow machines” has turned out to be a meaningful signal… Photo credit: Caterpillar Tractor Company

Starting at the end of last year, we began following the trains, trucks, ships, and sales of “yellow machines” – backhoes, loaders, bulldozers, etc. – and watching them all slow down.

Sure enough, they were telling us something important. Reports the Financial Times:

“The value of goods that crossed international borders last year fell 14% in dollar terms.”

Most notably, a decline in world trade means China is not exporting as much merchandise as before. This, we guessed, would mean a greater outflow of foreign exchange reserves from China’s central bank… and make it more difficult for it to prop up the exchange value of the renminbi.

The dollar value of global trade has slumped to the depths of the 2008/9 crisis low

A country accumulates foreign exchange reserves when it exports more than it imports. In the case of China, dollars, euro, etc… flow into the country in exchange for Chinese-made goods. This foreign currency builds up as reserves at the central bank. It can then dip into this stash to buy its own currency and prop up its value.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Japanese Trade Data Collapses, Crushes “Devalue Our Way To Prosperity” Dreams

February 17, 2016

Japanese Trade Data Collapses, Crushes “Devalue Our Way To Prosperity” Dreams

Seriously – how many more times can a central bankers’ policies be exposed for the total sham that they are?

Japanese trade data was just unleashed on the world… and it is abysmal.

*JAPAN JAN. EXPORTS FALL 12.9% Y/Y

Notably worse than the expected 10.9% drop and the biggest YoY plunge since October 2009.

Proving once and for all that the devaluation of the JPY did less-than-nothing to improve Japan’s competitiveness…

And then there is Imports – reflecting the “modest” improvement in the domestic economy…

*JAPAN JAN. IMPORTS FALL 18.0% Y/Y

Nope – complete carnage!! The biggest YoY drop since october 2009…

Is it any wonder Abe says no more stimulus and Kuroda did not unleash anymore QE – they know it’s over and now it’s desperation.

We leave it to Alhambra’s Jeff Snider to sum up… Japan is the very definition of insanity…

GDP fell 1.4% in Q4 2015, marking the fifth contraction out of the past nine quarters and yet the word “stimulus” remains attached to QQE, the Bank of Japan and Abenomics in general. At this point, how much more time and sample size is necessary before calling it a failure? In about six weeks, Kuroda’s massive “stimulus” will mark its third anniversary and the best that can be said of it is that GDP has gone nowhere. Two and three quarters years later, real GDP (SAAR) in the last three months of 2015 was the slightest bit higher than Q2 2013 when everyone was so sure “stimulus” was all so sure.

ABOOK Feb 2016 Japan GDP Real SAAR

The media provides all the evidence necessary as to why everything is so “unexpected.”

The data suggest Japan’s economy is still plagued by the weakness of domestic demand as it enters a fourth year of record monetary stimulus, with wages not rising fast enough to persuade consumers to spend.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“It’s Worse Than 2008”: CEO Of World’s Largest Shipping Company Delivers Dire Assessment Of Global Economy

February 10, 2016

“It’s Worse Than 2008”: CEO Of World’s Largest Shipping Company Delivers Dire Assessment Of Global Economy

Earlier today, we highlighted the rather abysmal results reported by Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company.

To the extent the conglomerate is a bellwether for global growth and trade, things are looking pretty grim. Maersk Line – the company’s golden goose and the world’s largest container operator – racked up $182 million in red ink last quarter and the outlook for 2016 isn’t pretty either. The company now sees demand for seaborne container transportation rising a meager 1-3% for the year.

“The demand for transportation of goods was significantly lower than expected, especially in the emerging markets as well as the Group’s key Europe trades, where the impact was further accelerated by de-stocking of the high inventory levels,” the company said, in its annual report.

Just how bad have things gotten amid the global deflationary supply glut you ask?

Worse than 2008 according to CEO Nils Andersen who last November warned that “the world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting.” Here’s what Andersen told FT:

“It is worse than in 2008. The oil price is as low as its lowest point in 2008-09 and has stayed there for a long time and doesn’t look like going up soon. Freight rates are lower. The external conditions are much worse but we are better prepared.”
As FT goes on to note, “capacity in the container shipping industry increased 8 per cent in 2015” despite the fact that Maersk only sees global trade growing at between 1% and 3% in 2016.

Imports to Brazil, Europe, Russia, and Africa are all falling, Andersen warned. The company’s business, Andersen says, is suffering from a “massive deterioration.” That, you can bet, will likely lead to a “massive deterioration” in Maersk’s shares, which took a substantial hit on Wednesday in the wake of the quarterly and annual results.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World’s Biggest Containership “Hard Aground” As Baltic Dry Crashes Below 300 For First Time Ever

February 4, 2016

World’s Biggest Containership “Hard Aground” As Baltic Dry Crashes Below 300 For First Time Ever

Before this year the lowest level The Baltic Dry Index had reached was 556 in August of 1986 and the highest was in June 2008 at a stunning 11,612. Today saw the freight index hit a new milestone however, crashing through the 300 barrier for the first time ever – at 298, this is almost 50% below the previous record low.

Commodities obviously are saying something very different from “the market”…

And as Dana Lyons notes, of course much of the input into the BDI comes from the price of raw materials. Considering the deflationary spiral in commodities, the drop in the BDI to all-time lows shouldn’t be a shock.

However, the depths that the index is now plumbing is quite alarming and suggests trouble in the global trade picture.

It would also suggest perhaps that the deflationary pressure is not just a supply issue. Consider every prior drop in the Baltic Dry Index down to the 500-600 level. Each time, the index immediately jumped as if latent demand was just waiting for those lower prices. That development has not yet occurred this time around, even as prices are reaching 45% below the previous record low.

The Baltic Dry Index has become a trendy thing to mention in recent years when discussing global market and economic conditions. The truth is, nobody really ever knows for sure what the broader message is behind the index’s behavior.That said, this recent plunge is making it quite difficult to conceive that it means anything positive in terms of the global economy and deflationary pressures.

And finally it’s not just commodities and the Baltic Dry that stalled, as gCaptain reports, one of the world’s biggest containerships is hard aground in Germany’s Elbe River leading to the port of Hamburg.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Trade Collapsed In January: Bellwether South Korea Exports Crash “Most Since Lehman”

January 31, 2016

Global Trade Collapsed In January: Bellwether South Korea Exports Crash “Most Since Lehman”

As the first major exporting nation to report each month, all eyes and hopeful speculative capital was glued to tonight’s South Korean trade data. After a brief respite in November, December’s drop was worrisome, but January’s just reported 18.5% crash – the most since the financial crisis – has only been seen during a US economic recession. Worse still, South Korean imports plunged over 20% in January as it appears crashing crude and cliff-diving freight indices are less about supply and more about demand (there is none) after all.

Annother red flag in the US recession looming camp…

Furthermore, with China accounting for around one quarter of South Korean exports – and following a 16.5% YoY plunge in December – tonight’s headline data suggests January was a total disaster for the Chinese economy also… though later we will get the PMI data to explain everything.

Deep “Freight Recession” Hits Railroads, Trucking, Air Freight

January 22, 2016

Deep “Freight Recession” Hits Railroads, Trucking, Air Freight

“Consumers just don’t seem to be showing up….”

As much as we would have liked to, the Dow Transportation Average wasn’t kidding. It has plunged 27% since its high on December 5, 2014. Nearly two-thirds of that plunge came over the past two months. Transportation companies are singing the blues. Railroads, trucking, air freight….

Union Pacific, the largest US railroad, reported awful fourth-quarter earnings Thursday evening. Operating revenues plummeted 15% year over year, and net income dropped 22%.

It was broad-based: The only category where revenues rose was automotive (+1%). Otherwise, revenues fell: Chemicals (-7%), Agricultural Products (-12%), Intermodal containers (-14%), Industrial Products (-23%), and Coal (-31%). Shipment of crude plunged 42%.

So Union Pacific did what American companies do best: it laid off 3,900 people last year.

This is what CEO Lance Fritz told Reuters about the American consumer: “What’s causing us some concern is it’s hard to figure out where the consumer is at.”

Consumers were sending mixed signals. Spending is shifting from retail of goods toward services. People were buying automobiles, and auto shipments rose in the quarter. And unemployment numbers looked good, he said, but labor participation “is lackluster and consumers just don’t seem to be showing up to purchase goods and services.”

And another disappointment about consumer behavior, according to Fritz: “There was a widespread belief that consumers would turn the savings from low fuel into spending, and we haven’t seen that so much.”

Canadian Pacific, which is trying to buy US rival Norfolk Southern in a deal that is vigorously contested by other railroads, reported a 4% drop in fourth-quarter revenues and a 29% drop in net income. Among its biggest decliners: crude-oil shipments (-17%) and consumer-products shipments (-24%). It garnished the report with an announcement of up to 1,000 layoffs.

CSX, in its earnings release earlier in January, reported a revenue decline of 7% for the year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Seven Ways TPP Favours Mega-rich Foreign Investors, Not Canadians

January 18, 2016

Seven Ways TPP Favours Mega-rich Foreign Investors, Not Canadians

And why there’s still time for Trudeau to reject it.

The Trudeau government still has options to push for renegotiation or to decline either to sign or to ratify the TPP on Canada’s behalf. Protest photo by arindambanerjee via Shutterstock.

The Harper government agreed to the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal with 12 countries including the U.S., Canada and Japan, shortly before the federal election on Oct. 19. Yet the TPP text was not made public until after the election.

Before it can enter into force, the TPP must be signed and then ratified by member countries. Therefore, the Trudeau government has options to push for renegotiation or to decline either to sign or to ratify the deal on Canada’s behalf.

In this article, I offer seven reasons why the TPP’s provisions on foreign investor protection — mostly found in its chapters on investment and financial services — should be rejected. These provisions reveal how the deal carries unacceptable risks for voters and taxpayers in TPP countries, while giving unjustified benefits to big multinationals and the super-wealthy.

1. The TPP would give special protections to foreign investors at significant public cost, without compelling evidence of a public benefit.

Like other trade agreements, the TPP would give foreign investors special rights to protect their assets by suing countries for compensation in the face of laws, regulations and other decisions that the foreign investor thinks are unfair. These potent international rights are not available to domestic investors or anyone else, even in the most extreme situations of mistreatment.

Why should foreign investors have a special global status and, effectively, a generous public subsidy against the economic risks of democracy and regulation that apply to everyone? The onus should be on promoters of the TPP to give compelling evidence of a corresponding benefit of foreign investor protections for the public. To my knowledge, they have not yet done so.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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