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Last week the Greek government imposed capital controls to prevent cash from escaping from the Greek banking system, which is on the brink of collapse. These repressive financial measures, which were invented by “Hitler’s banker” Hjalmar Schacht in the 1930s, include the closing of banks, limiting cash withdrawals from ATMs to 60 euros ($67) per day, and the banning of all money transfers via credit and debit cards to accounts held in foreign countries. Despite these Draconian controls, Greek banks continue to hemorrhage cash and, after yesterday’s referendum, it is probable that the daily limit on withdrawals from ATMs will be tightened. Worse yet, the reeling Greek public suffered another shock yesterday when Deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani revealed to Greek television that the government and banks had already agreed that people would also not be allowed to withdraw cash from safe deposit boxes for as long as the controls were in place. This may be part of a fallback plan if theECB ends its bailout of the Greek banks. The government with the banks’ connivance would seize the cash euros stored in these boxes and compensate their lessees by crediting an equal sum of euros to their increasingly inaccessible checking deposits. The cash would then be fed into ATMs to postpone the day of reckoning for Greece’s zombie fractional-reserve banks.
In the meantime, the market has been working to provide a private, nonbank alternative for Greeks to safely store cash. In Dublin, Ireland enterprising diamond dealer Seamus Fahy, who owns Merrion Vaults, is offering a 15% discount for Greeks who are able to evade the fascist capital controls and smuggle their cash out of the country.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
We all know one thing that Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico have in common–severe financial problems. There is something else that they have in common–a high proportion of their energy use is from oil. Figure 1 shows the ratio of oil use to energy use for selected European countries in 2006.
Greece and Cyprus are at the bottom of this chart. The other “PIIGS” countries (Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Portugal) are immediately above Greece. Puerto Rico is not European so is not on Figure 1, but it if were shown on this chart, it would between Greece and Cyprus–its oil as a percentage of its energy consumption was 98.4% in 2006. The year 2006 was chosen because it was before the big crash of 2008. The percentages are bit lower now, but the relationship is very similar now.
Why would high oil consumption as a percentage of total energy be a problem for countries? The issue, as I see it, is competitiveness (or lack thereof) in the world marketplace. Years ago, say back in the early 1900s, when countries built up their infrastructure, oil price was much lower than today–less than $20 a barrel (even in inflation-adjusted dollars). Between 1985 and 2000 there was another period when prices were below $40 barrel. Back then, the price of oil was not too different from the price of other types of energy, so an energy mix slanted toward oil was not a problem.
Oil prices are now in the $60 barrel range. This is still high by historical standards. Furthermore, much of the financial difficulty countries have gotten into has occurred in the recent past, when oil prices were in the $100 per barrel range.
While countries with a large share of oil in their energy mix tend to fare poorly, at least some countries with a preponderance of cheap energy fuels in their energy mix have tended to do very well. For example, China’s economy has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2006, its share of oil in its energy mix was only 23.0%, putting it below Norway but above Poland, if it were included in Figure 1.
1. Greece is already in default to the IMF
Last week, Greece defaulted on its obligations to the IMF, even if we technically would need to say it was put in“arrears”. Greece is the first developed country to do so. Currently, the Greek banking system is dependent on the ECB allowing the Greek Central Bank to issue loans to Greek banks through a scheme called Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA). As the name suggests, this funding can only be provided to deal with liquidity problems, so it cannot prop up insolvent banks. Greek banks are intimately linked with the insolvent Greek state, meaning they are insolvent themselves, meaning in turn that the ECB would need to cut off funding.
The necessary two thirds majority needed within the ECB Governing Council to block the Greek Central Bank from creating euros to lend to Greek banks under ELA hasn’t been reached so far. As a result, the ECB has had to come up with all kinds of excuses, the latest being that it will only cut off ELA funding for Greek banks in case there is “no prospect of a deal”. The ECB’s excuses are likely to run out soon, especially if the Greek government defaults on payments to the ECB on 20 July. This week, the ECB restrained ELA a little more, but it’s expected to provide ELA funding at least until Sunday. Political cover would be needed for any further actions though.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
As the Grexit debate is falling into the background a new, far more powerful conflict emerges: one between Germany on one side, and the IMF, France, Italy, and perhaps even the US, when it comes to the all important issue of debt relief.
As a reminder, it was the unexpected release of the IMF’s debt (un)sustainability draft late last week (with US support over the vocal objections of Europe) that not only gave Tsipras a Greferendum win (he did not desire), but showed clearly that without a debt haircut of at least 30%, any Greek deal will merely lead to another, even more violent Greek default down the line.
Then, overnight, the Telegraph showed that the “debt-haircut” axis has even more supporters in Europe:
French leaders are working in concert with the White House. Washington is bringing its immense diplomatic power to bear, calling openly on the EU to put “Greece on a path toward debt sustainability” and sort out the festering problem once and for all.The Franco-American push is backed by Italy’s Matteo Renzi, who said the eurozone has to go back to the drawing board and rethink its whole austerity doctrine after the democratic revolt in Greece. He too now backs debt relief for Greece.
Finally, it was none other than Tsipras who piggybacked on the IMF’s imlicit recommendation who following the “victorious” referendum made a clear demand of Europe:
Fast forward to this morning when shortly after the latest Greek capitulation, when in Tsipras’ official request for ESM bailout he said timidly that “as part of a broader discussion to be held, Greece welcomes the opportunity to explore potential measures to be taken so that its official sector related debt becomes both sustainable and viable over the long term” Germany made it very clear whether there will be any debt haircuts, or reprofiling in the coming years.
Nein.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
We had warned over the past few weeks that there was an outside chance that the Greek crisis would infect oil markets, and over the weekend Greek voters ensured that it did. With an overwhelming “no” vote, just about every corner of Greece voted against Europe’s debt package. Exactly what Greeks were voting for was rather confusing, but the vote was taken as a robust vote of confidence in Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ hardline approach against Greece’s creditors.
While that handed Tsipras a strong victory, it also led to a plunge in oil prices. WTI fell by 8 percent on July 6, falling to around $53 per barrel. Brent lost nearly 5 percent, dropping to under $58 per barrel. Oil is now trading at its lowest level in months, erasing several weeks of stability as well as optimism that the market had begun the arduous process of adjustment.
The Greek crisis has entered a new and much more dangerous phase, raising the possibility that the country could get booted from the currency union. JP Morgan Chase stated that it thinks odds are more likely than not that Greece leaves the euro. With Europe in turmoil, oil prices may not recover in the short-term.
Related: Don’t Panic, Nothing Has Really Changed In The Oil Markets
But it isn’t just Greece. In another (much more positive) geopolitical development, the Iranian negotiations are at the finish line. The outcome is still in doubt, as the deadline has once again been pushed back, this time until July 10, but all sides are extremely close to a deal. After weeks and months of uncertainty, the progress over the past week seems to have finally convinced the oil markets that a return of Iranian oil is close to becoming a reality.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
As we reported yesterday, following the latest European leaders summit, Greece was given until the end of the week to come up with a proposal for sweeping reforms in return for loans that will keep the country from crashing out of Europe’s currency bloc and into economic ruin.
“The stark reality is that we have only five days left … Until now I have avoided talking about deadlines, but tonight I have to say loud and clear that the final deadline ends this week,” European Council President Donald Tusk told a news conference.
It did that moments ago when Greece officially submitted a request for a three-year loan facility from the European Stability Mechanism. And to think Syriza’s main election promise was no more bailouts…
As Bloomberg reports, the loan will be used to meet Greece’s debt obligations, and to ensure financial system stability. Greece proposed immediate implementation of measures, including tax, pension reforms as early as next week. Govt to detail its proposals for specific reform agenda on July 9 at latest or tomorrow.
More details from the WSJ:
Greece formally requested a three-year bailout from the eurozone’s rescue fund Wednesday and pledged to start implementing some of the overhauls demanded by creditors by early next week, according to a copy of the request seen by The Wall Street Journal.
Crucially for Greece’s creditors, the letter says the government would start implementing some measures, including on taxation and pensions, by the beginning of next week, though it doesn’t go into details.
The letter is a first step toward fulfilling a demand by international creditors, who have given Athens until Sunday to come up with tougher measures they would impose in return for desperately needed financing that could keep the country from bankruptcy and even worse economic turmoil.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Today’s market battle will be between those (central banks) “hoping” that a Greek deal over the weekend is finallyimminent (which on one hand looks possible after a major backpeddling by Tsipras – who may never have wanted to win the Greferendum in the first place – yesterday in Brussels and today during his speech in the Euro Parliament, but on the other will be a nearly impossible sell to Greece as any deal terms will be far harsher than the deal offered by the Troika 2 weeks ago and will have no debt reduction), and those who finally noticed that the Chinese central planners have effectively lost control.
For those who may have missed the overnight fireworks, here are some more indicative Bloomberg headlines about China:
While pundits have been eager to downplay what is now a historic rout in Chinese risk assets, one that is matched by the depression of 2008 and which has sent the SHCOMP from up 60% for the year 3 weeks ago to barely green losing some 15 Greeces in market cap since mid-June…
… the same pundits to whom neither the oil crash nor a Grexit nor the imminent collapse in Q2 corporate revenues and GAAP EPS, or anything else matters, the reality is that the Chinese stock rout is very clearly starting to have contagion effects on the rest of the economy, crashing commodities such as crude, gold, copper, iron and virtually everything else where China has been a marginal source of demand, but leading to forced selling of anything that is not nailed down.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday’s referendum. He is now trapped and hurtling towards Grexit
Like a tragedy from Euripides, the long struggle between Greece and Europe’s creditor powers is reaching a cataclysmic end that nobody planned, nobody seems able to escape, and that threatens to shatter the greater European order in the process.
Greek premier Alexis Tsipras never expected to win Sunday’s referendum on EMU bail-out terms, let alone to preside over a blazing national revolt against foreign control.
He called the snap vote with the expectation – and intention – of losing it. The plan was to put up a good fight, accept honourable defeat, and hand over the keys of the Maximos Mansion, leaving it to others to implement the June 25 “ultimatum” and suffer the opprobrium.
This ultimatum came as a shock to the Greek cabinet. They thought they were on the cusp of a deal, bad though it was. Mr Tsipras had already made the decision to acquiesce to austerity demands, recognizing that Syriza had failed to bring about a debtors’ cartel of southern EMU states and had seriously misjudged the mood across the eurozone.
Instead they were confronted with a text from the creditors that upped the ante, demanding a rise in VAT on tourist hotels from 7pc (de facto) to 23pc at a single stroke.
Creditors insisted on further pension cuts of 1pc of GDP by next year and a phase out of welfare assistance (EKAS) for poorer pensioners, even though pensions have already been cut by 44pc.
They insisted on fiscal tightening equal to 2pc of GDP in an economy reeling from six years of depression and devastating hysteresis. They offered no debt relief. The Europeans intervened behind the scenes to suppress a report by the International Monetary Fund validating Greece’s claim that its debt is “unsustainable”. The IMF concluded that the country not only needs a 30pc haircut to restore viability, but also €52bn of fresh money to claw its way out of crisis.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
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| Kelly Hensing |
“Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad” goes a quote wrongly attributed to Euripides. It seems to describe the current state of affairs with regard to the unfolding Greek imbroglio. It is a Greek tragedy all right: we have the various Eurocrats—elected, unelected, and soon-to-be-unelected—stumbling about the stage spewing forth fanciful nonsense, and we have the choir of the Greek electorate loudly announcing to the world what fanciful nonsense this is by means of a referendum.
As most of you probably know, Greece is saddled with more debt than it can possibly hope to ever repay. Documents recently released by the International Monetary Fund conceded this point. A lot of this bad debt was incurred in order to pay back German and French banks for previous bad debt. The debt was bad to begin with, because it was made based on very faulty projections of Greece’s potential for economic growth. The lenders behaved irresponsibly in offering the loans in the first place, and they deserve to lose their money.
However, Greece’s creditors refuse to consider declaring all of this bad debt null and void—not because of anything having to do with Greece, which is small enough to be forgiven much of its bad debt without causing major damage, but because of Spain, Italy and others, which, if similarly forgiven, would blow up the finances of the entire European Union. Thus, it is rather obvious that Greece is being punished to keep other countries in line. Collective punishment of a country—in the form of extracting payments for onerous debt incurred under false pretenses—is bad enough; but collective punishment of one country to have it serve as a warning to others is beyond the pale.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
One can go into long convoluted explanations but, as I see it, there are two basic problems, one leading into the other. The more superficial problem is that in a single currency zone without the option of devaluation purchasing power will drain to the more competitive countries. To continue buying in the common currency people, companies and governments in less competitive (and poorer) countries have to borrow but this is a temporary solution for the obvious reason that they must pay back with interest so pretty soon borrowing makes this problem worse.
At that point the rationale of the common currency zone is stuck in an unresolvable dilemma. All the twists and turns have merely been “kicking the can down the road” – and each time the problem re-surfaces it is bigger and more threatening. What does “kicking the can down the road” mean? It means borrowing more in order to pay back the last lot of loans.
What makes it a little bit confusing is the way that the debt gets transferred from agency to agency at each can kicking stage. What has basically happened is that the other European states have wanted the Greek state to be turned into a debt collecting agency on behalf of the Eurozone governments and for the IMF. A key problem here is that the Greek elite does not actually pay taxes – they have taken their money and everything moveable to Switzerland or places like the London property market. Like the rest of the global elite they too believe that “only the little people pay taxes” and by now the little people have been ruined. The other option is to sell off the public sector to the creditors. However the Greek people have now elected a government that says that they can’t pay – a government that does not do what it is told by the creditors and whose finance minister did not wear a suit and a tie.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Did you hear the news? “Greece Says No to Further Austerity Measures!” Did you shake your head and say, “Wow, the nerve of those people refusing to cut their expenses in the face of all that debt”?
I’m no financial expert, but I don’t think that tightening up the budget was really what they were turning down.
I think that they were turning down the opportunity to continue under the tyrannical rule of the EU. They were breaking free.
What they were actually turning down was another series of huge loans that would put them further in debt and further under the oppression of the European Union loan sharks. They said no to another entity controlling their finances and destiny. Collapse or survive, the voters loudly stated that the Greek people want their country back.
This weekend I wrote about independence: it comes from not requiring anything that another person has to provide for you. And I believe that is exactly what the Greeks decided this weekend when they voted to discontinue allowing foreign entities to control their financial affairs, regardless of the cost.
So here’s the big question:
Is this the collapse of Greece
The banks aren’t going to take this lying down. Already, the access of banking customers to their money has been strictly limited. The banks have been running on electronic funds for more than a week now, only allowing small withdrawals and online banking to take place.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Papering over the structural imbalances in the Eurozone with bailouts or bail-ins will not resolve the fundamental asymmetries in trade.
Beneath the endless twists and turns of Greece’s debt crisis lie fundamental asymmetries that doom the euro, the joint currency that has been the centerpiece of European unity since its introduction in 1999.
The key imbalance is between export powerhouse Germany and its trading partners, which run large structural trade and budget deficits, particularly Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.
Those outside of Europe may be surprised to learn that Germany’s exports ($1.5 trillion) are roughly equal to the exports of the U.S. (1.6 trillion), and compare favorably with China’s $2.3 trillion in exports, given that Germany’s population of 81 million is a mere 6% of China’s 1.3 billion and 25% of America’s population of 317 million.
German GDP in 2014: $3.82 trillion
Chinese GDP in 2014: $10.36 trillion
U.S. GDP in 2014: $17.42 trillion
Germany’s dependence on exports places it in the mercantilist camp, countries that depend heavily on exports for their growth and profits. Other (non-oil-exporting) nations that routinely generate large trade surpluses include China, Taiwan and the Netherlands.
While Germany’s exports rose an astonishing 65% from 2000 to 2008, its domestic demand flatlined near zero. Without strong export growth, Germany’s economy would have been at a standstill. The Netherlands is also a big exporter (trade surplus of $33 billion) even though its population is relatively tiny, at only 16 million. The “consumer” countries, on the other hand, run large current-account (trade) deficits and large government deficits. Italy, for instance, runs a structural trade deficit and its total public debt is a whopping 137% of GDP.
Here’s the problem when debtor/importer eurozone members such as Greece go broke and default: Who is left standing to buy all the mercantilist exporters’ goods? Ultimately, much of those goods were purchased with debt, and when debtor nations default, the credit spigot is turned off: no more borrowing, no more money to buy Dutch, German and Chinese exports.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Brussels has been dead wrong. The stupid idea that the euro will bring stability and peace, as it was sold from the outset, has migrated to European domination as if this were “Game of Thrones”. Those in power have misread history, almost at every possible level. The assumption that the D-marks’ strength was a good thing that would transfer to the euro has failed because they failed to comprehend the backdrop to the D-mark.
Germany moved opposite of the USA toward extreme austerity and conservative economics because of its experience with hyperinflation. The USA moved toward stimulation because of the austerity policies that created the Great Depression, which led to a shortage of money, and many cities had to issue their own currency just to function. The federal government thought, like Brussels today, that they had to up the confidence in the bond market and that called for raising taxes and cutting spending at the expense of the people. The same thinking process has played out numerous times throughout history. Our problem is that no one ever asks – Hey, did someone try this before? Did it work? This is why history repeats – we do ZERO research when it comes to economics. It is all hype and self-interest.
Greece should immediately begin to print drachma. By no means has the introduction of a new currency been a walk in the park. There is always a learning curve, as in the case of East Germany’s adoption of the Deutsche mark, the Czech-Slovak divorce of 1993, and the creation of the euro itself . However, the bulk of transactions today are electronic, meaning we are dealing with an accounting issue more than anything. The euro existed electronically BEFORE it became printed money; Greece should do the same right now.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Earlier today we reported that as Bloomberg correctly leaked, the ECB would keep its ELA frozen for Greek banks at its ?89 billion ceiling level last increased two weeks ago. However we did not know what the ECB would do with Greek ELA haircuts, assuming that the ECB would not dare risk contagion and the collapse of the Greek banking system by triggering a waterfall solvency rush in Greek banks if and when it boosts ELA haircuts. Turns out we were wrong, and as the ECB just announced “the Governing Council decided today to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for ELA.”
Full Press Release:
ELA to Greek banks maintained
- Emergency liquidity assistance maintained at 26 June 2015 level
- Haircuts on collateral for ELA adjusted
- Governing Council closely monitoring situation in financial markets
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided today to maintain the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks at the level decided on 26 June 2015 after discussing a proposal from the Bank of Greece.
ELA can only be provided against sufficient collateral.
The financial situation of the Hellenic Republic has an impact on Greek banks since the collateral they use in ELA relies to a significant extent on government-linked assets.
In this context, the Governing Council decided today to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for ELA.
The Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation in financial markets and the potential implications for the monetary policy stance and for the balance of risks to price stability in the euro area. The Governing Council is determined to use all the instruments available within its mandate.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The €110 billion of loans provided to Greece by the IMF and Eurozone in May 2010 enabled Greece to avoid default on its obligations to these banks. In the absence of such loans, France would have been forced into a massive bailout of its banking system. Instead, French banks were able virtually to eliminate their exposure to Greece by selling bonds, allowing bonds to mature, and taking partial write-offs in 2012. The bailout effectively mutualized much of their exposure within the Eurozone.
The impact of this backdoor bailout of French banks is being felt now, with Greece on the precipice of an historic default. Whereas in March 2010 about 40% of total European lending to Greece was via French banks, today only 0.6% is. Governments have filled the breach, but not in proportion to their banks’ exposure in 2010. Rather, it is in proportion to their paid-up capital at the ECB – which in France’s case is only 20%.
In consequence, France has actually managed to reduce its total Greek exposure – sovereign and bank – by €8 billion, as seen in the main figure above. In contrast, Italy, which had virtually no exposure to Greece in 2010 now has a massive one: €39 billion. Total German exposure is up by a similar amount – €35 billion. Spain has also seen its exposure rocket from nearly nothing in 2009 to €25 billion today.
In short, France has managed to use the Greek bailout to offload €8 billion in junk debt onto its neighbors and burden them with tens of billions more in debt they could have avoided had Greece simply been allowed to default in 2010. The upshot is that Italy and Spain are much closer to financial crisis today than they should be.
