Home » Posts tagged 'precious metals' (Page 13)

Tag Archives: precious metals

Numbers from Bizarro-World

The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.

Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT]

In fact, I was struggling with this seeming paradox myself. As I kept looking at the state of the markets, I couldn’t help but wonder “what if they just keep kicking the can down the road for the next 20 years, or even longer?”

Since the peak in 2011, gold and silver have been in a strong correction period and overall, prices haven’t benefited from all the trillions that have been injected into the markets since 2008. Total credit growth was approximately $80 trillion, climbing from $160 trillion to around $240 trillion in a mere 10 years.

The major central banks combined increased their balance sheet by buying government and institutional debt from $6 trillion to $21 trillion (FED, ECB, BOJ, PBoC), but none of it went into gold. However, even though these days we read and hear these numbers so often, it is still almost impossible for the true meaning of these sums to really sink in.

A trillion is hard to truly take in and understand; $80 trillion in debt is something already so far beyond our grasp that it might as well be $100, $200, or $300 trillion and it would almost make no conceptual difference. A good way to correct this dissonance is just think about the fact that 1 million seconds are 8 days, 1 billion seconds are 35 years and 1 trillion seconds translate into 32,000 years – bringing us back to the Stone Age.

Assets held by major central banks.

PBoC balance sheet

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold & Silver Prices Rise As The Markets & Oil Decline

December 9, 2018

Gold & Silver Prices Rise As The Markets & Oil Decline

Over the past week, the gold and silver prices have held up rather well compared to the overall markets. While precious metals investors still fear that a huge sell-off in the gold and silver prices will take place during the next market crash, it seems that the metals continue to be very resilient during large market corrections.

Now, I am not saying that the metals prices cannot fall any lower, but a lot of the leverage in the gold and silver market has already been removed and is now at a near all-time low. So, even though we could see weaker precious metals prices, the overwhelming leverage and bubble asset prices are in the stock and real estate markets.

Furthermore, one of the reasons precious metals investors still fear that a major selloff is imminent is that they are using the 2007-2008 economic market meltdown as a guideline. However, when gold and silver prices were plummeting from their highs in 2008, along with the rest of the market, speculators held huge long positions while the commercials controlled an enormous number of short contracts.

If we look at the following Gold Hedgers Chart, we can clearly see that the market setup today is the exact opposite of what it was in 2008:

When gold was trading near $1,000 in early 2008, the commercial banks held a record high of 252,000 net short contracts compared to the present gold price of $1,222 (time of chart), with the commercials only holding 16,000 net short contracts. The commercial short positions are shown by the blue line. Thus, the higher the commercial short positions, the lower the line goes and the lower the number, the higher the line moves. Currently, the gold price and commercial net short positions are both at the near lows. Also, the speculator net long positions are close to their lows as well

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why buy gold now? Because I don’t know

December 6, 2018

Why buy gold now? Because I don’t know

From 2000 through 2012, the price of gold increased every year, rising from around $280 an ounce to nearly $1,700. It was an unprecedented run.

Then, in 2013, gold took a nose dive, losing over 27% of its value.

It was widely reported that the Swiss National Bank, the former bastion of monetary conservatism, lost $10 billion that year just on its gold holdings.

As you probably know, central banks hold a portion of their reserves in gold. The practice goes back to when central banks actually had to have gold on hand to trade in and out of paper money (or even trade for goods and services).

And central banks still hold reserves in gold today, even though they don’t need it to transact like they used to.

So that begs the question, did the Swiss National Bank actually lose $10 billion? It still had every ounce of gold in its vaults. And gold, after all, ismoney.

Plus, the SNB wasn’t holding gold to speculate…

Today, central banks hold gold as a hedge against fiat money. These are the guys with their fingers on the printing press… so they know exactly the effect they have on money.

And right now, banks are buying up gold hand over fist. Central banks currently hold 20% of all the gold ever mined—33,000 metric tons.

And JPMorgan Chase says they’ll buy another 650 tons this year and next.

Why?

Gold is for the I don’t knows.

And right now, there are a LOT of I don’t knows.

Markets have been going crazy over the past few months.

After a record bull run for stocks, we are now seeing massive volatility with the Dow regularly jumping 500+ points in a single day. Just yesterday, the Dow fell a whopping 800 points.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GOLD, SILVER & THE MARKETS: What’s Next For 2019

December 6, 2018

GOLD, SILVER & THE MARKETS: What’s Next For 2019

The big question on the minds of most investors is what will happen to the markets and precious metals in 2019. Well, the answer depends mainly on two factors, the oil price and overall weakness in the economy. If the oil price continues to decline, it will indicate a deflationary outcome for the economy and markets.

While this sounds counter to the notion that falling oil prices will drive higher consumer demand, we also must remember that it will negatively impact the U.S. shale oil industry. A lower sustained oil price, as I wrote about in my previous article, IT BEGINS… Rapidly Falling Oil Prices First Guts Tar Sands, Then Shale Oil will begin to destroy the oil industry, especially the unconventional oil industry. I don’t believe Americans or the investors realize the tremendous amount of economic activity it takes to produce shale oil.

Now, the last U.S. economic bubble in 2007-2008 was based on a highly leveraged housing market. However, the present economic bubble is being propped up by the U.S. Shale Oil Ponzi Scheme. Some energy analysts don’t believe the U.S. shale oil industry has that much of an impact on the market, but I disagree. Since the 2008 market crash, the U.S. shale oil industry has brought on nearly 7 million barrels per day (mbd) of tight oil. U.S. oil production has surged from 5 mbd in 2008 to 11.7 mbd currently.

So, to understand what happens to the markets in 2019, we need to focus on the number one driver of the economy… THE OIL PRICE. In my most recent video, GOLD, SILVER & MARKETS: What’s Next For 2019, I discuss what is taking place in the broader markets, gold-silver, and the oil price:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2019 Outlook: The State of Sound Money in the United States

December 6, 2018

2019 Outlook: The State of Sound Money in the United States

The Great Recession, coupled with the “Ron Paul Revolution,” prompted a renaissance of the sound money movement in the United States.

As Germany, Russia, and China — to name a few — continue to increase their gold holdings, the hegemonic power of Federal Reserve Notes (referred to today as the dollar) is slowly slipping away.

Simultaneously, whispers—once relegated to fringe corners—of restoring sound money have become passionate, concerned, and loud.

The destruction of sound money over the past century stems from actions at the federal level, but there are steps which states can take —and even have already taken —to move toward real, sound, constitutional money.

As state legislatures reconvene in the next few weeks, let’s take a look at the current state of play…

Since 2016, sound money has made a splash on the state level. According to the 2018 Sound Money Index, a new ranking of all 50 states on the extent to which they have implemented the pro-sound money policies, there are currently 38 states with an exemption of sales and use tax on the purchase of gold and silver.

Since 2016, legislators in 10 different states have introduced bills, seven of which were signed into law, to restore sound money by eliminating taxes on gold and silver within their borders.

In 2017, a quarter of all states without a sales tax exemption on gold and silver introduced new measures to eliminate the tax against the monetary metals. As states continue to make inroads on the sales tax issue, Tennessee and West Virginia are expected to introduce bills to remove sales and use taxes on sound money in 2019.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Golden Renaissance – Precious Metals Supply & Demand

November 27, 2018

A Golden Renaissance – Precious Metals Supply & Demand

A major theme of my work — and raison d’etre of Monetary Metals — is fighting to prevent collapse. Civilization is under assault on all fronts.

Battling the barbarians at the gate… [PT]

There is the freedom of speech battle, with the forces of darkness advancing all over. For example, in Pakistan, there are killings of journalists. Saudi Arabia apparently had journalist Khashoggi killed. New Zealand now can force travelers to provide the password to their phones so the government can go through all your data, presumably including your gmail, Onedrive, Evernote, and WhatsApp.

China is now developing a “social credit” system, to centrally plan the economy and control citizen behavior. Canada has made it a crime to call someone by the wrong gender pronoun. Even in the US, whose First Amendment has (mostly) stood as a bulwark against censorship now has a president who threatens antitrust action against Amazon, because its CEO Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post, which prints things he does not like.

On college campuses, professors are harassed if they say one thing that the professional sensitives are sensitive to. If a controversial speaker is invited, he risks an angry mob coming to disrupt his talk (or worse).

Sacrifices on the road to Utopia. [PT]

Then, there is the nearly-over war against patients’ rights to purchase health care services from the provider of their own choosing, and health care professionals’ right to sell services to patients at a price they prefer. In the US, insurance companies are still forced (as under Obamacare) to provide insurance to anyone who applies, even those who have pre-existing conditions. This would be like forcing home insurance companies to issue policies to people whose houses are currently on fire. It is not insurance, but an unfunded welfare program.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We are Living with Maximum Uncertainty – Catherine Austin Fitts

November 25, 2018

We are Living with Maximum Uncertainty – Catherine Austin Fitts

Financial expert Catherine Austin Fitts has said for years that the economy was not going to crash, but be on a “slow burn.” How long can they make this heavily indebted game last? Fitts says, “Our problem as investors is we don’t know. If you look at all the information we need to make an intelligent assessment, we don’t have access to that information. I have said many times this is a military question. Who has the biggest weapons and who has the ability to deliver force and control? So, we are living with maximum uncertainty. . . . Clearly, we are headed into a new currency world that’s part of a new control system, but the answer is we don’t know when. My fear with many, many commentators is they are underestimating the power and endurance of the system. I am always getting yelled at because people think I am pro-empire. I am not saying I am pro-empire or I am for the things they are doing to keep it going.”

Fits adds that things are so uncertain that “the old system could go five years or five months.”

On introducing a new dollar, Fitts says, “Even if they do introduce a dollar backed by gold, it’s going to start off with a small market share. They are very unlikely to do a big bang thing. These guys are prototypers.”

There is no doubt wealthy people around the world are buying gold. Why? Fitts says, “The reality is . . . in the worst case scenario, gold is a store of value because it is respected globally as a currency or money without the backing of a sovereign government. What is the global currency that has backing without a sovereign government, and gold and silver are one of the few.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GLOBAL DEBT INCREASE 2018 vs. GOLD INVESTMENT: Must See Charts

November 23, 2018

GLOBAL DEBT INCREASE 2018 vs. GOLD INVESTMENT: Must See Charts

Global debt increased at the fastest rate at the beginning of 2018. In just one quarter, total global debt jumped by more than $8 trillion. That is quite surprising as total world debt rose by $22 trillion for the full year in 2017. Thus, the increase in global debt last year averaged $5.5 trillion each quarter.

However, global debt according to the Institute of International Finance dropped by $1.5 trillion in the second quarter of 2018. While mature markets saw their debt decline in Q2 2018, emerging market debt increased by $1 trillion lead by China. In looking at the data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), they stated that global debt jumped by over $8 trillion in the first quarter of 2018 to $247 trillion, but then declined $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion in Q2 2018.

So, the global debt must have jumped by $9.5 trillion to $248.5 trillion during the first quarter of 2018 and then dropped $1.5 trillion in Q2. Thus, the IIF must be revising their figures each quarter. Either way, the net increase in global debt in the first half of 2018 was $8 trillion.

If we look at the following chart below, we can see how the increase in global debt compares to the value of the total global gold investment as well as the value of world gold supply:

From my research, total world gold investment, Central bank and private investment total approximately $3 trillion. This is based on the data from the next chart that estimates global gold investment of 2.25 billion oz valued at a $3 trillion:

Interestingly, when I did the chart above earlier this year, the market price of gold was trading at $1,330. Today, it is $100 less. So, if I want to be totally accurate, total Central bank and private gold holdings are presently valued at $2.8 trillion. Regardless, global debt increased $8 trillion in the first half of 2018, more than 2.5 times than the value of all world investment gold holdings.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tom Cloud Update: Mainstream Financial Planners Getting More Interested In Gold & Silver

November 20, 2018

Tom Cloud Update: Mainstream Financial Planners Getting More Interested In Gold & Silver

In Tom Clouds newest update, he discusses many topics on rising precious metals premiums, silver miners production cost higher than the market price, skyrocketing debt and the coming rise in the gold and silver price. However, one of the most important parts of his video is the number of financial planners now calling him because they are becoming more interested in precious metals.

Tom starts by discussing the rising precious metals premiums on certain products since the summer. He then talks about the primary silver miners average cost of production is above the current market price. I have written a recent article on this, which he quotes, and it’s true:

As I mentioned, Tom was quoted the data from the chart below which shows how the top primary silver miners average All-In-Sustaining Cost (AISC) is now $16.10. However, the AISC does not include all costs and also deducts by-product credits. I believe the costs are even higher:

All the primary silver miners shown in red posted a higher AISC than the current market price. There were only two that posted a lower AISC. Even though the silver production cost is not the only factor that determines the market price, it is at least helps provides a floor. We must also remember, these AISC were based on much higher oil prices in the third quarter. Oil prices have now fallen by more than $20 from their highs. So, I believe the primary silver miners costs will continue to decline over the next several quarters if oil prices remain at the current level or fall further.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Financial Professional’s Perspective

November 15, 2018

ShedConnect.com

A Financial Professional’s Perspective

What’s the current market volatility signalling?

Given the recent volatile gyrations of the markets, we thought it an opportune time ask a full-time financial advisory firm whom we respect for their take on the current environment.

As most PeakProsperity.com readers are aware, we highly advise investors to work in concert with a professional financial advisor whose strategy takes into account the “Three E” macro risks highlighted in our foundational series, The Crash Course.

If folks experience difficulty finding such a professional, we refer them to Peak Prosperity’s endorsed financial advisor: New Harbor Financial. The folks at New Harbor have been mindful of our analysis — as well as that of other experts we admire, such as John Hussman — for over a decade now.

We aked them for their latest evaluation of the current situation in the markets, how they’re positioned right now, and what guidance they’re offering to their clients.

Here’s what they have to say:

Environment

Risk in global stock markets is exceedingly high at the present time in our opinion. Much of the work that we do in evaluating risk levels in the stock market at any given time is derived from valuations, and other key market metrics like stock market breadth, sentiment, and technicals. Valuations, measured the way that we think they should be, have never been higher. Both the cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by Robert Shiller, and the margin-adjusted CAPE, as developed by John Hussman, are at or near historic extremes. Valuations cannot be used to precisely time the short-term movements of stock indices, but over the long-term of 5 to 10 years or more, valuations have a very high correlation to actual realized returns over those timeframes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

JPMorgan Chase Trader Pleads Guilty to Gold Manipulation, Turns State’s Evidence

November 13, 2018

JPMorgan Chase Trader Pleads Guilty to Gold Manipulation, Turns State’s Evidence

Gold and silver investors got a rare bit of good news on the enforcement front last week.

A trader from JPMorgan Chase pled guilty to rigging the precious metals futures markets.

John Edmonds admitted to cheating the bank’s clients and plenty of other people naive enough to expect fair treatment on the COMEX and other exchanges.

While this is by no means the first time a banker has been caught cheating, some aspects of this case are certainly worth noting.

Below is some detail on the who, what, when, why, and how of Mr. Edmonds’ activities at JPMorgan.

As part of his plea, Edmonds admitted that from approximately 2009 through 2015, he conspired with other precious metals traders at the Bank to manipulate the markets for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX), which are commodities exchanges operated by CME Group Inc.

Edmonds and his fellow precious metals traders at the Bank routinely placed orders for precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders before execution (the Spoof Orders), he admitted.

This trading strategy was admittedly intended to inject materially false and misleading liquidity and price information into the precious metals futures contracts markets by placing the Spoof Orders in order to deceive other market participants about the existence of supply and demand. The Spoof Orders were designed to artificially move the price of precious metals futures contracts in a direction that was favorable to Edmonds and his co-conspirators at the Bank, to the detriment of other market participants.

In pleading guilty, Edmonds admitted that he learned this deceptive trading strategy from more senior traders at the Bank, and he personally deployed this strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Venezuela is Painfully Reminded of the Golden Rule

November 10, 2018

Venezuela is Painfully Reminded of the Golden Rule

He who holds the gold, makes the rules.

This is a motto that you will hear espoused by gold bugs, precious metals advocates, or anyone that has studied financial history in any meaningful way.

The fact is, if you don’t hold it, then you don’t own it.

This is something that I have warned about for years, as people continue to pile into “paper” precious metals assets, most specifically, those that do not guarantee to hold the precious metals in physical reserve, accounting for every oz that they own via regularly scheduled audits.

As Central Banks around the world continue to race into gold, a trend I have been noting throughout the course of this year, some, are being painfully reminded of the golden rule and are ruing the day they ever gave up physical ownership of their most valuable, real asset.

Venezuela, who is currently led by a failing socialist government, with President Nicolas Maduro at its head, is one such country that is learning this valuable lesson.

Venezuela, for months has been attempting to repatriate their gold holdings from the Bank of England, the latter of whom “allegedly” holds a large percentage of the worlds gold reserves since the ending of World War 2.

The reasoning for this, was one of the greatest cons in history, and one that continues to unfold. Western Central Banksters convinced many of the Worlds Nations that it would be “safer” to hold their reserves within the United States and England.

Ironically, over the last few decades, this has been just about the worst place in the world to hold your gold bullion, as these nations have rehypothecated this gold to near infinity. But don’t worry, they claim their “good” for it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Same Old COMEX Games

November 1, 2018

The Same Old COMEX Games

A small move in price enables The Banks to lay the shorts right back on.

Just three weeks ago, we warned you to ignore newsletter pundits who were claiming that one day soon, The Banks that operate on the COMEX will be long and on the side of the regular investor/stacker. As with all nonsense, this sentiment ignores reality. Before reading further, I urge you to read this post from October 9: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-banks-are-not…

October 9 was a Tuesday, and that’s pretty handy because all of the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders surveys are taken after the COMEX close on Tuesdays. Back on October 9, the price of COMEX gold closed at $1191. The CoT survey taken that day was reported on Friday, October 12. And what did it show? Check the handy spreadsheet below from Goldseek.

As you can see, on October 9 the positions were summarized as follows:

• The Large Speculators (primarily hedge funds, managed money, trading funds) NET SHORT 38,175 contracts. This was a new ALL-TIME HIGH NET SHORT position for this category.

• The Commercials (primarily Big Banks like JPM, HSBC, MS, etc.) NET LONG 25,866 contracts . This was a new ALL-TIME HIGH NET LONG position for this category.

• On the disaggregated report, the sub-category “Managed Money” was historically NET SHORT 109,544 contracts, as you can see below.

Fast-forward two weeks to Tuesday, October 23. The price of COMEX gold had risen $45 to $1236 and another CoT survey was taken. This report was released last Friday, the 26th, and it is shown below.

So, on a price move of less than 4%, it’s quite clear that The Banks have revealed themselves as NOT “on your side”. Not now, not ever. The positions on this most recent report can be summarized as:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Flight to Safety Accelerates, Hungary Increases Gold Holdings Ten Fold

October 28, 2018

The Flight to Safety Accelerates, Hungary Increases Gold Holdings Ten Fold

We’ve talked at length about how the geopolitical climate around the globe has ratcheted up in temperature over the past few years. The times are growing more and more uncertain as trade wars erupt and as the old global powers are seemingly losing control with each passing day.

This has led to countries such as Russia, and China, both of which are unarguably out of the “old” power structure and desperately want to increase their ground in the international game of finance and control.

Undoubtedly they are doing this and asserting themselves in any possible way that they can, suffering blow-backs and setbacks from the old power structure for each stride that they make.

One such tactic that they are using, and one that I have often highlighted, is their continued move away from US dollars as their reserve currency of choice. In its place, they are buying precious metals, most notably gold, at a feverish pace, exponentially increasingly their holdings as rapidly as they can.

Despite this fact, gold has suffered under intense artificial suppression, as a fat finger is kept on its price. The “canary in the coal mine”, as gold is often called, has been kept quiet, but for how much longer?

Increasingly, as the times become ever more precarious, with global leaders on edge, we are seeing more countries join the ranks of Russia and China, taking what they believe to be prudent steps and moving some of their reserves into precious metals.

Two such countries that have just recently increased their holdings of gold bullion, are Poland and Hungary, the former of which has been steadily doing so over the summer months and the later of which has just done so, in a massive way.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Measures of Value – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

October 25, 2018

Measures of Value – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Aiming for Knowledge and Better Decision-Making

The price of yellow metal went up nine bucks last week. And the price of silver three rose cents, which is back to where it was two weeks earlier. We need to rant, and promise to tie it back to the prices of the metals. We have written these past several weeks about the fact that the franc has been rendered useless. Owning a franc does nothing for you, other than to trade to the next person at hopefully a higher price.

When the money of the realm becomes literally useless as money – the charts and data example above shows excerpts of what happened in Germany from WW1 to the hyperinflation blow-out of 1923. In the end, one simply could no longer use the Reichsmark as a medium of exchange. [PT]

This is the state into which gold has been forced, by a series of actions by the US and other governments.

Indeed, so useless has gold become, that we measure its value in terms of the irredeemable fiat dollar. We all love to hate the dollar, we all think the dollar will collapse at some point in the future. Yet so ubiquitous — and useful — is it that we measure even money in terms of dollars!

And “we” does not refer to Keynesians and their close cousins the Monetarists. “We” refers to many Monetary Metals clients and prospective clients. Yes, truly, the folks that are keen to earn interest on their money paid in money — gold — ask constantly our opinion on the price of money in terms of irredeemable Fed credit notes!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tag Archives: precious metals

Content

Post categories

Economic Links

Energy/Resource Links

Environmental Links

Geopolitical Links

Liberty Links

News Links

Other Links

Survival Skills

Post Archives by Category

Post navigation

Latest Posts