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Oil Price Crash Sparks A Wave Of Banking Mergers In The Middle East
Oil Price Crash Sparks A Wave Of Banking Mergers In The Middle East
The historic oil price crash and Covid-19 pandemic have left major producers of the commodity in a deep economic crisis. Dramatic production cuts by OPEC+ has exacerbated the situation by further lowering export inflows for economies that depend heavily on oil dollars. Some, such as the UAE, have tried to put on a brave face by touting the strength of their banking systems and claiming they can withstand shocks of any scale.
Unfortunately, a growing body of evidence suggests pretty much the opposite: A wave of banking mergers is sweeping through the Middle East as the sector scrambles to stay afloat amid slowing economic growth.
About $440 billion worth of deals are already on the table. That’s a remarkable feat for a region that has the lowest banking penetration anywhere on the globe.
Interestingly, Saudi Arabia–guilty of initiating the oil price war with Russia that triggered the oil price crash–is well represented in the growing trend.
Source: World Bank
Giant mergers
Source: Bloomberg
#1 Saudi Arabia The National Commercial Bank, Saudi Arabia’s largest lender by assets, has lined up a $15.6 billion takeover bid for rival Samba Financial Group. The $15.6B tab represents a nearly 30% premium to Samba’s valuation before the deal was announced, while the potential deal will create a $210 billion (assets) behemoth.
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, the Kingdom’s central bank, has unveiled nearly $27 billion in stimulus packages to support its flagging banking system suffering from years of weak private sector loan growth. The Kingdom’s oil and gas sector accounts for 50% of GDP and 70% of export earnings. The IMF has estimated Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven sits at $76.1 per barrel, a far cry from the current ~$40/bbl.
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Huge Debt Payments Come At Worst Time Possible For Canadian Drillers
Huge Debt Payments Come At Worst Time Possible For Canadian Drillers
The collapse in oil prices has significantly deteriorated Canada’s oil companies’ finances and has made repaying their debt more challenging. Over the past decade, Canadian firms have borrowed money to survive the previous oil crisis of 2015-2016 and boost production post-crisis. But now the second price collapse in less than five years is leaving Canada’s oil patch, especially the smaller players, extremely vulnerable as debt maturities approach.
This year, the oil crash coincides with the highest-ever annual debt maturities in the Canadian energy sector, according to Refinitiv data cited by Reuters. In 2020, oil and gas firms have to repay US$3.7 billion (C$5 billion) in debt maturities, up by 40 percent compared to last year.
The debt pressure adds to the Canadian energy sector’s new predicament with low oil prices, low cash flows, and low overall demand for crude oil due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Some companies are set to default on debts, while others are looking at restructuring options and refinancing. Banks are not generally too keen to own energy assets. But the banks may be the ultimate judge of who can refinance, who can stay afloat, or who can go belly up in this crisis, legal and industry professionals told Reuters.
Some of Canada’s oil and gas firms had not overcome the previous crisis when this one hit.
According to Bank of Canada’s recent Financial System Review—2020, the COVID-19 crisis led to widespread financial distress in all sectors, but “Canada is also grappling with the plunge in global oil prices, which hit while many businesses in the energy sector were still recovering from the 2014–16 oil price shock.”
The energy sector has the most refinancing needs over the next six months, at US$4.43 billion (C$6 billion), and faces the most potential downgrades, according to Bank of Canada.
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The World’s Most Important Oil Consumers And Producers
The World’s Most Important Oil Consumers And Producers
Following last week’s release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020, I began to review and analyze the data. Today I take a deeper dive into the numbers on petroleum. Oil accounts for a third of the world’s energy consumption. That is the greatest share for any category of energy. In 2019, the world consumed a record 98.3 million barrels per day (BPD) of oil. This was nearly 1 million BPD higher than consumption in 2018, and marked the 10th consecutive record for global oil consumption.
Over the past 35 years, global oil consumption has risen by 39 million BPD, an average increase of 1.1 million BPD each year. Last year’s rise fell just short of that average.
In recent years, BP has begun to provide more granularity in the Review. In previous years, the oil consumption category included biofuels. Now, they have split biofuels into a separate category, so the consumption numbers above are for just oil and derivatives of natural gas and coal (e.g., synthetic oil).
The U.S. continues to lead all countries in the consumption of oil, but China has had the fastest consumption growth for several years. Below are the Top 10 global consumers of oil for 2019.
Related: Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And GasOil consumption fell in most developed countries and rose in most developing countries. A notable exception was Germany. Although consumption in OECD countries fell by 0.6% and consumption across Europe was down 0.3%, Germany bucked the trend and saw its consumption grow by 0.9%.
The biggest percentage increase in oil consumption was in Iran, which was the world’s 11th largest consumer. Demand there jumped by 10.0%. Iran was the only country in the world with a double-digit percentage increase in demand.
In contrast, double-digit decreases in oil demand were seen in Iceland (-12.7%), Venezuela (-11.6%), and Pakistan (-10.5%).
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Natural Gas Price Plunge Could Soon Lead To Shut-Ins
Natural Gas Price Plunge Could Soon Lead To Shut-Ins
Natural gas prices plunged to new lows this week, falling below $1.50/MMBtu, a catastrophically low price for U.S. gas drillers. The factors afflicting the gas market are multiple. Prices had already fallen below $2/MMBtu at the start of 2020, weighed down by oversupply. But it wasn’t a problem confined to the U.S. There was also a global glut of LNG due to a wave of capacity additions in 2019.
That was the situation heading into 2020. But just as the Covid-19 pandemic tore apart the oil market, natural gas also went into a tailspin. Global gas demand is expected to fall by 4 percent this year, “largest recorded demand shock” in history, according to the International Energy Agency.
Buyers of U.S. LNG are now cancelling shipments at a rapid clip. U.S. LNG exports have declined by more than half compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“There would have been too much LNG in the world even without Covid-19,” Ben Chu, a director at Wood Mackenzie’s Genscape service, said in a statement. “Covid-19 has made it worse.”
Buyers abroad are willing to pay a cancellation fee instead of receiving shipment from U.S. exporters, a sign of how badly the market has deteriorated. For August delivery, between 40 and 45 cargoes have been cancelled, nearly double the rate of cancellation in June.
Typically, cheaper gas can stimulate demand, particularly in the electric power sector. But that outlet is not as large as it may have been in the past, not least because gas has already been cheap for quite some time. Thus, the coal-to-gas option is limited. Without an export route, and without larger uptake from utilities, the gas glut has deepened.
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Peak Fuel Demand Will Occur Within 10 Years
Peak Fuel Demand Will Occur Within 10 Years
It has been a tough few months for the oil industry, and there’s more pain on the way as the industry struggles with disruptive forces that could completely transform it. Now, according to BloombergNEF, oil and gas companies have one more thing to worry about: peak fuel demand. In an outlook for road fuels published earlier this month, BloombergNEF forecasts that gasoline demand will peak in 2030, with diesel following three years later. As a result, demand for crude oil from the road transport sector is seen peaking in 2031, BloombergNEF said, at 47 million barrels daily. That’s higher than BloombergNEF’s 2019 projection, which saw oil demand from light and heavy-duty vehicles peaking at 45.1 million bpd.
To fully realize the implications of this trend, here is some context. As of 2019, road transport accounted for more than 40 percent of overall global oil demand. What’s more, road transport has accounted for more than half of total oil demand growth over the past two decades. Peak demand for road transport fuels, therefore, is a harbinger of peak oil demand.
The immediate outlook for fuel demand is also not rosy, with the lockdowns and international movement restrictions erasing ten years’ worth of demand growth, according to BloombergNEF. This effect will likely be temporary; as lockdowns ease, demand for fuels begins to recover, even though it remains doubtful whether it will recover fully to pre-pandemic levels.
So, what are the culprits behind this looming slump in fuel demand? First, there is fuel efficiency: a factor that, according to BP, will improve so much that energy consumption in the transport sector will only rise by 20 percent by 2040. BP made that forecast last year, long before the coronavirus. Now, those changes could accelerate.
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30% Of U.S. Shale Drillers Could Go Under
30% Of U.S. Shale Drillers Could Go Under
U.S. shale was one of the big losers of the Saudi-Russian price war that many saw as a war on U.S. shale. Producers scrambled to stay afloat as prices sank back to lows not seen since 2016, and they are still scrambling. Banks are giving them the cold shoulder, worried that many will not be able to pay their debts. Is there a way out? According to various forecasting agencies, there is, but it will take a while. A Bloomberg analysis of forecasts for the shale industry made by outlets such as the International Energy Agency, energy consultancy Rystad, IHS Markit, Genscape, and Enervus suggests shale will be back on its feet by 2023, with production back to over 12 million bpd.
This is not a long time for a full recovery, really, especially given the current circumstances, including shut-in wells, abandoned drilling plans, tight cash, and, for many, looming bankruptcies.
As much as 30 percent of shale drillers could go under if oil prices fail to move substantially higher, Deloitte said in a recent study, as quoted by CNN. These 30 percent, the firm said, are technically insolvent at oil prices of $35 a barrel. Right now, West Texas Intermediate is higher than $35 but not by much. Oil is now trading closer to $35 than to $50—the level at which most shale drillers will be making money.
And they need to make money: banks have started cutting credit lines for industry players as they reassess their assets and the production that they promised would be realized from these assets. According to calculations by Moody’s and JP Morgan, cited by the Wall Street Journal, banks could reduce asset-backed loan availability for the industry by as much as 30 percent, which translates into tens of billions of dollars.
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Global Gas Production Set To Tumble In 2020
Global Gas Production Set To Tumble In 2020
- Natural gas production, which was originally projected to grow in 2020, is now facing an estimated decline of 2.6 percent.
- Associated gas from oil fields is going to be hit hardest, with an expected decline of 5.5 percent compared to 2019 levels
- The biggest drop in associated gas production will be in North America, which makes up roughly half of the global output
The Covid-19 pandemic has landed a lasting blow to both oil and gas markets. Global oil production has absorbed the lion’s share of the impact, but natural gas output, which was previously set to grow, is also set to decline by 2.6 percent this year, Rystad Energy forecasts. Production of associated gas from oil fields will be hit most, losing some 5.5 percent compared to 2019 levels.
Before Covid-19 forced a new reality upon the energy world, Rystad Energy expected total natural gas production to rise to 4,233 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2020, from 4,069 Bcm last year. Now this estimate is revised down to 3,962 Bcm for this year, rising to 4,015 Bcm in 2021 and to 4,094 in 2022.
Production from natural gas fields, which was initially expected to rise to 3,687 Bcm this year from 3,521 Bcm in 2019, is expected to reach 3,445 Bcm instead, recovering to 3,485 Bcm in 2021 and further to 3,551 Bcm in 2022.
The most affected output in percentage terms is the one of associated gas, which was initially forecast to stay largely flat year-over-year from the 2019 level of 547 Bcm. It is now expected to fall to 517 Bcm instead in 2020, rising to 530 Bcm in 2021 and 542 Bcm in 2022. Associated gas will likely only again exceed 2019 levels from 2023 onwards.
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U.S. Oil Dominance Is Coming To An End
U.S. Oil Dominance Is Coming To An End
- U.S.’ energy dominance agenda is dead as the country’s shale industry is looking at a steep production decline.
- The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week.
- U.S. oil import dependence is set to grow in the next couple of years.
U.S. energy dominance is over. Output is probably going to drop by 50% over the next year and nothing can be done about it. It has nothing to do with the lack of shale profitability or other silly memes cited by people who don’t understand energy.
It’s because of low rig count.
The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week. Tight oil production will decline 50% by this time next year. As a result, U.S. oil production will fall from to less than 8 mmb/d by mid-2021.
What if rig count increases between now and then? It won’t make any difference because of the lag between contracting a drilling rig and first production.
The party is over for shale and U.S. energy dominance.
Energy Dominance is Over
Tight oil is the foundation of U.S. energy dominance. The U.S. has always been a major oil producer but it moved into the top tier of oil super powers as tight oil boosted output from about 5 to more than 12 mmb/d between 2008 and 2019 (Figure 1).
Conventional production has been declining since 1970. It fell from almost 10 mmb/d in 1970 to 5 mmb/d in 2008.
Figure 1. Tight oil is the foundation for U.S. Energy Dominance.
Conventional production has been in decline since 1970. Tight oil boosted U.S. production to more than 12 mmb/d in 2019.
Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
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How Saudi Arabia Caused The Worst Oil Price Crash In History
How Saudi Arabia Caused The Worst Oil Price Crash In History
- Saudi Arabia made good on its promise to flood the market with oil after the collapse of the previous OPEC+ deal in early March.
- The Kingdom’s oil exports jumped by 3.15 million bpd to 11.34 million bpd in April.
Saudi Arabia made good on its promise to flood the market with oil after the collapse of the previous OPEC+ deal in early March, exporting a record 10.237 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2020, up from 7.391 million bpd in March, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) showed.
Total oil exports from Saudi Arabia, including crude oil and total oil products, also soared in April – by 3.15 million bpd to 11.34 million bpd, mostly due to the surge in crude oil exports, according to the data released by the JODI database, which collects self-reported figures from 114 countries.
Production at the world’s top crude oil exporter also jumped in April—to over 12 million bpd, at 12.007 million bpd, the database showed.
After flooding the market with oil in April and contributing to the oil price crash, OPEC’s de facto leader and largest producer, Saudi Arabia, agreed that same month to a new round of OPEC+ cuts in response to the demand crash and plunging oil prices. Saudi Arabia had to reduce its oil production to 8.5 million bpd in May and June under the OPEC+ deal for removing 9.7 million bpd of collective oil production from the market.
According to OPEC’s secondary sources in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Saudi Arabia slashed its crude oil production in May to the required level of 8.5 million bpd.
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Canadian Banks Hit Hard By Low Oil Prices
Canadian Banks Hit Hard By Low Oil Prices
Canada’s government has been perhaps surprisingly ready to help the country’s ailing oil industry. Interest-only loans, backstopping loans that troubled companies can’t pay have been among the steps taken so far. But they may not be enough. Canada’s oil industry has arguably suffered more than its peers across its southern border or even most producers around the world. Already cheap because of pipeline troubles, Canadian oil slumped to new lows amid the oil price war and the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year. While it has since improved in line with the international benchmarks, it hasn’t improved enough for the comfort of the local extractive industry. And it may drag banks down with it.
Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Canada’s largest banks reported an almost two-fold increase in impaired energy loans over their second quarter due to the oil price plunge and the pandemic. The increase amounted to more than US$1.47 billion (C$2 billion). What’s more, according to the report the country’s top six lenders had boosted their new lending to energy companies jumped by as much as 23 percent during that same quarter.
“Canadian banks’ energy exposure risks are increasing, with oil in a freefall and Canadian oil producers fighting to survive, as cash burn accelerates and liquidity dwindles,” a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said in April when banks and companies were both bracing for this year’s renegotiation of borrowing bases amid the price plunge. According to Paul Gulberg, if just a tenth of the loans that Canadian banks had on their books at that time went bad, the lenders could lose a collective US$4.40 billion (C$6 billion).
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The Unique Ways Oil Companies Are Looking To Avoid Bankruptcy
The Unique Ways Oil Companies Are Looking To Avoid Bankruptcy
Many U.S. shale firms have cruised through the past couple of years by borrowing money and drilling new wells, making the United States the world’s top crude oil producer. The strategy worked for a while, especially when oil prices were around $60 a barrel.
But this year’s oil price crash exposed the financial vulnerability of many U.S. shale companies who are now fighting for survival. All producers across the U.S. patch pulled back production volumes in April and May in response to the collapse in prices.
For some oil and gas firms, reduced capital budgets will not be enough to save them from defaulting on debt or seeking restructuring as cash flows are shrinking, while the window of access to capital markets and new debt remains, for the most part, closed.
Those firms who choose not to seek (or are not forced to seek) protection from creditors via Chapter 11 restructuring could look at other options to avoid bankruptcy, some of which may be a little unconventional.
Today, unconventional may be an understatement when it comes to describing the oil industry’s state of affairs. All options – regardless of how (un)common they are – are on the table for struggling oil producers.
Industry consolidation, private equity firms acquiring assets or distressed companies, banks ending up holding oil and gas assets, or power utilities buying their providers of energy could be some of the options that oil firms might consider, Suzy Taherian, who worked with Exxon and Chevron at the start of her career, writes in Forbes.
Mergers & Acquisitions Hit By Uncertainty
U.S. shale firms have fewer financing options now than they did in the 2015-2016 downturn. Thus could drive consolidation in the industry with some attractive M&A opportunities emerging, according to Robert Polk, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s U.S. Corporate Research team, covering Lower 48 independents.
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The Most Dramatic Year In The History Of Oil
The Most Dramatic Year In The History Of Oil
There are very few industries in the world that have been hit as hard or are set to face as many consequences as the oil and gas industry in 2020. In a recent report, Fitch Ratings forecast that oil and gas exploration and production companies would lose $1.8 trillion in revenues this year, which is six times more than the retail sector is set to lose. But the long-term consequences are going to be even more devastating. Perhaps the most visible change taking place in the oil and gas industry is the drastic cost-cutting measures being taken by the oil majors. BP has been forced to cut 10,000 jobs, or 15 percent of its workforce, as it tries to control costs in this new low oil price environment. Schlumberger had already slashed salaries and cut jobs in late March, while Shell and Chevron have announced plans to shrink their workforces.
And it isn’t just in the workforce where we are seeing unprecedented cuts. Shell’s decision to cut its dividend for the first time since 1945 was probably the single largest indicator of the long-term impact this pandemic will have on the oil industry. Shell and its fellow oil majors have prided themselves on paying out dividends regardless of market conditions in order to keep their shareholders happy. Its decision to cut its dividends marks a shift in strategy that suggests the oil major is now determined to cut its debt going forward and focus on financial sustainability rather than just pleasing shareholders.
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Mediterranean Oil Tensions Are Boiling Over
Mediterranean Oil Tensions Are Boiling Over
Under pressure in Libya–where it’s gone head-to-head with General Haftar in an ongoing battle to decide who gets to ultimately control the country’s oil revenues–and floundering in Syria, Turkey is once again upping the ante in the Mediterranean, this time preparing to issue new oil and gas exploration licenses in direct confrontation with the European Union.
It’s not just about Cyprus, anymore. Turkey’s state-run oil and gas company has been given licenses from the Turkish government to explore for oil and gas in 24 locations in the East Mediterranean. Seven of those locations are just off the coast of key Greek islands.
It’s a direct provocation that has Greece infuriated, and experts worried that this could lead to direct clashes once Turkey starts exploration drilling.
Last weekend, Turkey released a draft plan for Turkish Petroleum’s exploration license.
Source: Resmigazete.gov.tr
On Monday, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said in a statement that the country “stands ready to deal with this provocation should Turkey decide to implement this decision”.
The draft plan explicitly violates Greek sovereignty, and it is designed to take advantage of a new maritime boundary agreement Erdogan wrangled last year with the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya. This was the trade-off for Libya’s aid in fighting back General Haftar in his push to take the Libyan capital, Tripoli.
The maritime boundary is meant to perform a pincer movement against Cyprus, which is drilling offshore in its EEZ where Turkey has also provocatively deployed drillships. In the Greek Cypriot EEZ alone, there are an estimated 120 billion cubic meters of natural gas, for which drilling began in 2011. The first license here was granted in 2008 to American Noble Energy (the same company behind the massive Israeli discoveries).
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COVID Crisis Could Unify World’s Largest Oil Companies
COVID Crisis Could Unify World’s Largest Oil Companies
Sir Winston Churchill once admonished leaders to never let a good crisis go to waste. Wall Street banks and other large banks have been paying attention: They were shrewd enough to seize the opportunity presented by the last financial crisis to get hard-nosed government agencies to approve giant M&A deals they would otherwise have frowned upon.
The oil sector should take its cue from the banking sector and try out a little Churchillian wisdom.
Rob Cox, global correspondent for Reuters Breakingviews, seems to feel that is inevitable. He has told Reuters that the Covid-19 crisis could lead to merger mania in sectors like telecoms, auto, consumer goods, and energy.
But unlike the mid-cap energy mergers that had begun to break out before the crisis struck, Rob says tie-ups between giant producers like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and BP(NYSE:BP) among others is now within the realm of possibility.
Cutting Costs
Pre-crisis notions about competition and antitrust concerns, Cox argues for Reuters, might take a backseat as economies emerge from lockdowns with governments changing tack and beginning to prioritize building industries with better operational efficiencies, lower costs, and healthier balance sheets.
Giant energy companies could use the cost-cutting gambit to justify mammoth deals that would otherwise fail to pass muster.
Under this backdrop, Exxon and Chevron might bandy together, and even throw in BP for good measure, to form the acronymous “ExChevBrit” whose combined market cap of $425 billion and reserve pool of ~70 billion barrels of oil equivalent would still pale in comparison to Saudi Aramco’s $1.6 trillion value and 270 billion Boe.
The financial crisis of 2008 that crippled the global banking sector, Cox notes, opened the way for mega-mergers such as Bank of America paying $50 billion for Merrill Lynch; Wells Fargo ponying up $15.1B to snag West Coast rival Wachovia and high-street lender Lloyds TBS coughing up £12bn for HBOS.
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Is EIA Data Disguising A Disastrous Decline In U.S. Shale?
Is EIA Data Disguising A Disastrous Decline In U.S. Shale?
The Trump administration claims that the U.S. is “transitioning to greatness,” and that energy companies are going to see “massive gains.” U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette says there is “stability” in the oil market, and that economic activity will “explode” on the other side of the pandemic.
Dan Brouillette✔@SecBrouillette
Thanks to the leadership of President @realDonaldTrump, the transition to greatness is well underway, and our economy along with our U.S. energy companies are going to see massive gains on the other side of this pandemic.
Meanwhile, back in reality, U.S. oil production continues to decline as drillers shut in wells and cut back spending. Output has already declined by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), and more losses are likely. New data from Rystad Energy predicts U.S. oil production declines of roughly 2 mb/d by the end of June.
“Actual production cuts are probably larger and occur not only as a result of shut-ins, but also due to a natural decline from existing wells when new wells and drilling decline,” Rystad said in a statement.
Energy expert Philip Verleger, in an article for Energy Intelligence reports that the magnitude of output declines is much larger. His latest research shows that production as of May 10 is down by almost 4 million bpd from its peak as the below chart shows.
Source: PK Verleger LLC
To be sure, the U.S. government is doing quite a bit to try to bailout the oil industry. A new report finds that some 90 oil and gas companies will benefit from the Federal Reserve’s corporate bond buying program. The Trump administration is also quietly reversing environmental protections on the oil and gas industry.
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