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The world’s most powerful central bank is relying on a novelty tune to maintain the hyper-speculative status quo.

Back in the Roaring 1920s, a novelty song entitled Yes! We Have No Bananas (1923) was a major hit. The song made fun of a fruit vendor who answered “yes” to every query–even when he didn’t have the requested item–for example, bananas.

Today, in the Roaring Teens, the Federal Reserve has their own novelty tune:yes, we have no rate hikes.

Just like the always-positive fruit vendor in the 1920s who answered “yes” to every question, the Fed answers “yes” every time someone asks if they are indeed going to raise interest rates a smidgen.

Despite their automatic affirmative, we have no rate hikes. The reason why, oddly enough, goes right back to banana vendors–in this case, banana vendors in China, who are speculating on margin (i.e with borrowed money) in China’s casino stock market.

The reason why the Fed is wary of raising rates isn’t the real-world impact. As I have noted here many times, a quarter-point increase won’t torpedo any auto loan or mortgage being issued to qualified buyers.

If a buyer can’t qualify for a home loan because rates clicked up .25%, they have no business buying a house anyway–they are not qualified by any prudent lending standards.

As for subprime auto loans–the firms issuing these loans don’t care if rates click up .25%–the subprime market world of high rates and high fees is unaffected by a tiny uptick in rates.

Who’s affected by a meager .25% uptick? Speculators: every speculator from the banana vendors on the street to hedge funds gambling billions in foreign exchange markets is exposed to massive tidal forces unleashed by higher rates in the U.S.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkey On The Brink As Calls For Martial Law, Civil War Send Lira Plunging Again

August 20, 2015

Turkey On The Brink As Calls For Martial Law, Civil War Send Lira Plunging Again

For anyone who might have missed it, Turkey is quickly descending into chaos on all fronts.

The lira is putting to new lows against the dollar on a daily basis as confidence suffers from a worsening political crisis which began in June when AKP lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in over a decade throwing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan to transform the country’s political system into an executive presidency into doubt. Not one to give up easily (especially when it comes to consolidating his power), Erdogan proceeded to launch an ad hoc military offensive against the PKK in an attempt to undermine support for the pro-Kurdish HDP ahead of new elections which, thanks to the willful obstruction of the coalition formation process, are now virtually inevitable.

Turkey’s central bank hasn’t helped matters and the lira legged lower on Wednesday after it was made clear that a rate hike was not in the cards until Fed liftoff is official.

Citi has taken a look at the situation and determined that in fact, the lira is the most vulnerable of all EM currencies they track:

We believe it is going to be difficult for the local markets angle of the EM asset class, in this important (potential) transition of monetary policy in the US, and also taking into account any potential move by the ECB in 2016 (away from a QE stance). That prompted us to revisit our FX vulnerability model. In the model, we look into EMFX from three angles: 1) the macro vulnerability aspect (focused on BoP dynamics, FX reserve metrics, portfolio flows and CDS); 2) interest rate coverage (measured by 1y1y forward real rates, current implied yields and bond yield premium after hedging costs); and 3) our assessment of positioning by real money investors and leveraged accounts in the several EM currencies. TRY, BRL, ZAR, MXN and MYR rank high in terms of aggregate vulnerability.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Federal Reserve – Which CREATED Quantitative Easing – Admits QE Doesn’t Work

August 20, 2015

The Federal Reserve – Which CREATED Quantitative Easing – Admits QE Doesn’t Work

Even the Fed Admits QE Doesn’t Work

The Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (Stephen Williamson) writes in a new Fed white paper (as explained by Zero Hedge):

The theory behind Quantitative Easing (QE) is “not well-developed”

The evidence in support of Ben Bernanke’s views on the transmission mechanisms whereby asset purchases affect outcomes are “mixed at best”

“All of [the] research is problematic,” Williamson continues, as “there is no way to determine whether asset prices move in response to a QE announcement simply because of a signalling effect, whereby QE matters not because of the direct effects of the asset swaps, but because it provides information about future central bank actions with respect to the policy interest rate.” In other words, it could be that the market is just reading QE as a signal that rates will stay lower for longer and that read is what drives market behavior, not the actual bond purchases.

“There is no work, to my knowledge, that establishes a link from QE to the ultimate goals of the Fed inflation and real economic activity. Indeed, casual evidence suggests that QE has been ineffective in increasing inflation. [Background.] For example, in spite of massive central bank asset purchases in the U.S., the Fed is currently falling short of its 2% inflation target. Further, Switzerland and Japan, which have balance sheets that are much larger than that of the U.S., relative to GDP, have been experiencing very low inflation or deflation.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

An Almost Perfect Predictor of GDP Growth and Bernie Lays the Boots…

August 19, 2015

An Almost Perfect Predictor of GDP Growth and Bernie Lays the Boots…

I recently watched a video clip of Bernie Sanders laying the boots to Alan Greenspan back in 2003, for Greenspan’s seemingly out of touch perspective of the average American. Now while we do have a repentant banker in Greenspan, a rare phenomenon for sure, I found the scolding interesting in that essentially every accusation Sanders lays on Greenspan could be repeated today to our subsequent central banking gods. During the video notice that all the figures Sanders explicates not only remain true today but have gotten far worse. Particularly note the national debt figure which has now increased by more than 400% since then!!! The clip is well worth the 5 minutes.

But so let’s dig in a little to what Bernie is really saying to Greenspan. The overall theme of the trouncing is that the Federal Reserve, the keeper of American monetary policy, had implemented policies that clearly had done significant damage to the vast majority of Americans. Specifically Sanders is suggesting that the policies were a cancer to the economic prosperity of Americans and all the while creating extreme wealth for a select few. And while that is bad in and of itself, what Sanders finds despicable is that the Fed seems to not only deny the harm they were responsible for but Greenspan seemed to be alleging success by focusing solely on the massive wealth it had provided to the very few on top.

Now in a recent whitepaper by Stephen Williams, VP of the St. Loius Fed, a case is made that the Fed’s ‘recovery’ policies have not helped to boost the economy. And while I agree with that conclusion, I feel the paper is a fraud.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkey Turmoiling: Lira Plunges To Record Low On Financial, Political, Terrorism Fears

August 19, 2015

Turkey Turmoiling: Lira Plunges To Record Low On Financial, Political, Terrorism Fears

Turkey’s lira is once again in free fall, after testing all-time lows against the dollar during multiple sessions of late as political turmoil and civil war wreak havoc on the currency.

On Tuesday, the central bank failed to hike rates and delivered what was generally said to be a confused set of guidelines for navigating the normalization of monetary policy in developed markets.

In short, a perfect storm of political upheaval, indeterminate monetary policy, and growing violence between Ankara and the country’s Kurdish population have conspired to send the lira on a terrifying ride and as you’ll note from the headline roundup presented below, it looks as though things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

TURKEY WON’T RAISE RATES UNTIL FED DOES: HALK YATIRIM’S TOKALI
TURKEY LIRA NOT YET AT LEVEL TO HURT COMPANIES, AKBEN SAYS: AA
TURKEY REPEAT ELECTIONS AUTHORIZED BY BRD BEFORE 90 DAYS: SABAH
ERDOGAN: COALITION FAILURE MEANS TURKEY NEEDS TO ASK THE PEOPLE
ERDOGAN: TURKEY HAS A SERIOUS GOVT FORMATION AND TERROR PROBLEM
ERDOGAN: TURKEY’S SYSTEM HAS CHANGED, OTHERS WON’T ACCEPT IT
GUNFIRE HEARD OUTSIDE ISTANBUL’S DOLMABAHCE PALACE: HURRIYET

More Trouble In Turkey As Lira Plunges To New Lows, Bond Yields Soar

August 18, 2015

More Trouble In Turkey As Lira Plunges To New Lows, Bond Yields Soar

On Monday, Turkey’s lira plunged to new lows against the dollar as coalition talks between prime minister and AK Party leader Ahmet Davutoglu and nationalist MHP leader Devlet Bahceli broke down. The result, AKP won’t be able to form a coalition government after elections in June saw the party lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 12 years.

In the absence of a coalition, the country will go back to the polls – likely in November – where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes heightened violence between Ankara and the PKK will translate into a stronger showing for AKP.

The political turmoil, rising violence, and general EM malaise have hit the country’s currency hard and on Tuesday, Turkey’s central bank left rates unchanged prompting further weakness in the lira which had already fallen earlier in the session after Emine Nur Gunay, Davutoglu’s chief adviser, hinted that a rate hike was not in the cards.

Meanwhile, 10-year yields have spiked to their highest levels in nearly a year and a half.

As Bloomberg reports, the market is also not impressed with the central bank’s plan to stabilize markets in the face of policy normalization in the US:

Investors sold Turkish assets, sending TRY to record low after central bank published “road map” of measures it said would prepare country for normalization of global monetary policy.

List of 9 technical adjustments fell short of investor expectations that Turkey’s central bank would move toward simplifying monetary policy framework

TRY fell as much as 0.9% to record 2.8941/USD; 2Y yields surged to the highest in more than a year at 10.59%

“The strategic plan is disappointing,” Guillaume Tresca, a senior emerging market strategist at Credit Agricole wrote in e-mail

Central bank is “just trying to justify saying to the markets that it’s ready to face a Fed rate hike, without really announcing anything new”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deleveraging as a Biblical Plague

August 14, 2015

Deleveraging as a Biblical Plague

Eventful days in the middle of summer. Just as the Greek Pandora’s box appears to be closing for the holidays (but we know what happens once it’s open), and Europe’s ultra-slim remnants of democracy erode into the sunset, China moves in with a one-off but then super-cubed renminbi devaluation. And 100,000 divergent opinions get published, by experts, pundits and just about everyone else under the illusion they still know what is going on.

We’ve been watching from the sidelines for a few days, letting the first storm subside. But here’s what we think is happening. It helps to understand, and repeat, a few things:

• There have been no functioning financial markets in the richer parts of the world for 7 years (at the very least). Various stimulus measures, in particular QE, have made sure of that.

A market cannot be said to function if and when central banks buy up stocks and bonds with impunity. One main reason is that this makes price discovery impossible, and without price discovery there is, per definition, no market. There may be something that looks like it, but that’s not the same. If you want to go full-frontal philosophical, you may even ponder whether a country like the US still has a functioning economy, for that matter.

• There are therefore no investors anymore either (they would need functioning markets). There are people who insist on calling themselves investors, but that’s not the same either. Definitions matter, lest we confuse them.

Today’s so-called ‘investors’ put to shame both the definition and the profession; I’ve called them grifters before, and we could go with gamblers, but that’s not really it: they’re sucking central bank’s udders. WHatever we would settle on, investors they’re not.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will China Play The ‘Gold Card’?

August 12, 2015

Will China Play The ‘Gold Card’?

Alasdair Macleod has posted an article at www.goldmoney.com which I think is important.

(See “Credit deflation and gold”.www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis.)

The thrust of the article is that China, at some point, will have to revalue gold in China; which means, in other words, that China will decide to devalue the Yuan against gold.

Since “mainstream economics” holds that gold is no longer important in world business, such a measure might be regarded as just an idiosyncrasy of Chinese thinking, and not politically significant, as would be a devaluation against the dollar, which is a no-no amongst the Central Bank community of the world.

However, as I understand the measure, it would be indeed world-shaking.

Here’s how I see it:

Currently, the price of an ounce of gold in Shanghai is roughly 6.20 Yuan x $1084 Dollars = 6,721 Yuan.

Now suppose that China decides to revalue gold in China to 9408 Yuan per ounce: a devaluation of the Yuan of 40%, from 6721 to 9408 Yuan.

What would have to happen?

Importers around the world would immediately purchase physical gold at $1,084 Dollars an ounce, and ship it to Shanghai, where they would sell it for 9408 Yuan, where the price was formerly 6,721 Yuan.

The Chinese economy operates in Yuan and prices there would not be affected – at least not immediately – by the devaluation of the Yuan against gold.

Importers of Chinese goods would then be able to purchase 40% more goods for the same amount of Dollars they were paying before the devaluation of the Yuan against gold. What importer of Chinese goods could resist the temptation to purchase goods now so much cheaper? China would then consolidate its position as a great manufacturing power. Its languishing economy would recuperate spectacularly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Who Runs the Fed?

August 7, 2015

Who Runs the Fed?

Ben Bernanke, 2011. (Shirley Li/Medill DC via Flickr)

The 2008 financial crisis challenged many orthodox assumptions in finance and economics, including the proper role and accountability of central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve, commonly known as the Fed, is the world’s most powerful central bank.

One major source of Federal Reserve power is its role as “lender of last resort,” lending directly to commercial banks through its so-called discount lending window. Traditionally, only commercial banks had access to the Fed’s discount lending since non-bank financial institutions were not subject to the same reserve and capital requirements as those imposed on banks. The other major source of the Fed’s power is its ability to purchase short-term Treasury securities. These restrictions on Fed lending and asset purchases helped support the central bank’s political independence from Congress and the White House by ensuring that Fed policy was socially neutral and did not favor particular sections of financial markets or particular private constituencies. But as the Federal Reserve’s lending and asset purchase powers expanded in unprecedented ways in 2008, these traditional restrictions were swept aside, exposing the flaws of central bank independence.

The Fed is also able to create money—U.S. dollars, also known as Federal Reserve notes—which means there is virtually no limit to the amount of money it can lend and no limit to the volume of assets it can purchase without adding to public-sector borrowing or deficits. During the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the Fed extended more than $16 trillion in low interest loans to all kinds of financial institutions in distress, including borrowers who traditionally lacked access to its discount window such as hedge funds and foreign commercial banks and central banks. Also, beginning in 2008, the Fed launched several asset purchase programs, known as “quantitative easing” (or QE), to purchase more than $3.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mexican Peso Dives, Fretting Begins About Peso Crisis

July 30, 2015

Mexican Peso Dives, Fretting Begins About Peso Crisis

“Everyone got used to playing with free, easy money. Now it’s going to cost us.”

On July 1, the Financial Times wondered just how low the Mexican peso could go, likening the ill-fated currency to a limbo dance: “Every month, it gets just that little bit lower.”

In the 20 trading days since, the peso has experienced eight record daily lows, in itself a record, even for Mexico. Not since the peso-dollar floating exchange rate system was established, on December 21, 1994, at the height of Mexico’s Tequila Crisis, has the currency notched up so many new lows in one single month. And there are still three days left to go!

At 16.25 pesos to the dollar currently, the peso has lost roughly 20% of its value against the dollar within a year. In December last year, with the exchange rate dropping to 14 pesos to the dollar, the country’s Exchange Rate Commission launched a currency intervention program in a bid to prop up the peso, or at least stymie its slide.

Like so many central bank interventions these days, it failed: by March, it took 15 pesos to buy a dollar. The Commission upped the ante, announcing it would conduct daily auctions of $52 million, without setting a minimum price requirement. That was four months ago. Since then, the peso’s value has continued to slide against the dollar, and the pain is beginning to show.

As El Financiero reports, although inflation, at around 3% , remains at historically low levels, pressures are beginning to rise. Some imported goods, including medical appliances, plastics and petrochemicals have registered price increases of between 10% and 15% over the last couple of months. With external trade accounting for 63% of the national economy, the impact is unavoidable. Particularly hard hit are companies with heavy debt loads denominated in dollars.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Does “Creative Destruction” Include the State?

July 28, 2015

Does “Creative Destruction” Include the State?

When do we get to exercise democracy and fire every factotum, apparatchik, toady and lackey in the state who has abused his/her authority?

Everyone lauds “creative destruction” when it shreds monopolies and disrupts private enterprise “business as usual.” If thousands lose their middle-class livelihoods– hey, that’s the price of progress.

Improvements in productivity and efficiency can’t be stopped, and those employed making buggy whips and collecting horse manure from fetid streets will have to move on to other employment.

This raises an obvious question few dare ask: does this inevitable process of creative destruction include the state? If not, why not? Aren’t the state and the central bank the ultimate monopolies begging to be disrupted for the benefit of all? If government is inefficient and unproductive, shouldn’t it be “creatively destroyed” in the same fashion as private enterprise?

The obvious answer is yes. Why should a monopoly (government) remain untouched by new knowledge and competition as it skims the cream from society to fund its own monopolies and grants one monopoly/cartel privilege after another to its private-sector cronies?

Under the tender care of the state, we now have uncompetitive, inefficient parastic cartels dominating higher education, national defense, healthcare insurance, pharmaceuticals and hospitals– to name but a few of the major industries that are now state-enforced cartels thanks to the heavy hand of the state (i.e. regulatory capture).

Under the tender mercies of the state, prosecutors have a 90% conviction rate thanks to rigged forensic evidence, threats of life imprisonment (better to plea-bargain than risk years in America’s gulag) and other strong-arm tactics that presume guilt, not innocence. We have the best judicial system that money can buy, meaning you’re jail-bait if you can’t put your hands on a couple hundred thousand for legal defense and the all-important media campaign.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stephen Poloz’s Zen Moment

July 17, 2015

Stephen Poloz’s Zen Moment

To cut or not to cut, that is the question. And fortunately for Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, it was a pretty easy question. A lagging US recovery, China’s downturn, lower oil prices and “bad weather” all contributed to this interest rate cut. “I wouldn’t describe it as a close decision,” he told the press, “It’s a decision where we had a number of trade-offs on the table. It requires a lot of deliberation and a lot of inputs, not a mechanical decision. Not even close.” But whereas Poloz admitted to feeling comfortable at the end of 2014, now there was a bunch of crap heading for the ceiling fan and that interest rate cut was Canada’s only way of taking cover.

Poloz is known for his metaphors but the above is mine. Poloz used the parable of the big oak tree to compare “analysing vulnerability” in the economy. The big oak tree is only a risk if there’s a branch that could break off and fall into your neighbours house. In Poloz’s mind, cutting interest rates must have been like sawing off that branch. He may have successfully migrated some future risk, but in doing so he didn’t bother with any long-term consequences. He may have sawed off that branch so it wouldn’t fall into the neighbours house, but by cutting without thinking ahead, the branch fell right into the neighbours house.

I hope that’s clear, because a lot of what the Bank of Canada says isn’t. Poloz is a fan ofGreenspeak but sometimes we get moments of incoherent clarity such as: “When other things are equal, a lower currency will be a stimulus to the economy.” When asked if China’s slow-down could affect Vancouver’s housing market and potentially the broader economy, Poloz crept back to his Greenspeak with a definite “I don’t know” and “I won’t speculate” sprinkled on top.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Crash in China Continues – and is Engulfing Hong Kong

July 8, 2015

The Crash in China Continues – and is Engulfing Hong Kong

Efforts of Potent Directors Ignored

When we first commented on the emerging problems with China’s market bubble, we warned that although a bounce from oversold levels was the most likely outcome, it wasn’t set in stone. It appeared to us that Chinese investors were especially prone to falling for the “potent directors fallacy” (a term coined by Robert Prechter of EWI many years ago) – the belief that powerful decision makers, in this case the central bank and the government – would be willing and able support the market no matter what. Willing they have been – able, less so.

Chinese retail investors are shell-shocked

Photo credit: EPA

For a long time it has been the general impression that due to its tight control over the banking system and other sectors in the economy, China’s leadership could just “order the markets around”. Investors who were aware of China’s enormous debt problems and its insanely overvalued real estate markets were regularly baffled by the fact that China’s mandarins were apparently capable of arresting any decline in prices or any emerging credit blow-ups with the flick of a finger. Faith in their abilities is currently being shaken to its core. This is highly relevant to the asset bubbles currently underway in other countries, even though what happens in China has little direct effect due to the country’s closed capital account.

China’s stock market crash just keeps going – the index has now reached an important lateral support level. It will probably bounce from there, but for a variety of reasons this is actually somewhat less certain than it would otherwise be – click to enlarge.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greek Capital Controls Begin: Greek Banks, Stock Market Will Not Open On Monday

June 28, 2015

Greek Capital Controls Begin: Greek Banks, Stock Market Will Not Open On Monday

Update 2: Greece’s Skai reports that if/when banks reopen (supposedly on Tuesday), a 60€ withdrawal limit will be imposed.

Update: In a televised address to the nation, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras assured Greeks that their deposits are safe despite an upcoming bank holiday and despite the fact that Greek stocks will not open for trading on Monday. Tsipras also said Athens has re-applied for a bailout extension and urged Greeks to “remain calm” in the face of what is sure to be a turbulent week.

GREEK PRIME MINISTER SAYS GREEK PEOPLE SHOULD REMAIN CALM
GREEK PM: BANK OF GREECE PROPOSED BANK TRANSACTION RESTRICTIONS
GREEK PRIME SAID GREECE RE-APPLIED FOR BAILOUT EXTENSION
GREEK PRIME MINISTER SAYS DEPOSITS ARE COMPLETELY SAFE

Earlier:

Despite the reassurances from any and all elected (and unelected) officials, given the run on bank ATMs in Greece has turned into a stampede, it is not surprising that:

GREEK BANKS TO REMAIN CLOSED FROM MONDAY FOR A WEEK: PIRAEUS BANK CEO
PIRAEUS BANK CEO THOMOPOULOS SPEAKS TO REPORTERS IN ATHENS

The announcement was made when Piraeus Bank CEO Anthimos Thomopoulos told reporters after a meeting of the government’s financial-stability panel on Sunday. The launch of capital controls just as the Greek summer tourism season starts, is sure to be the final crushing blow to Greece, whose entire economy will now grind to a halt.

At the same time, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said an announcement would be made after a Cabinet meeting due to start imminently in Athens. Which is ironic considering just earlier today Varoufakis said he is opposed to the “very concept” of capital controls:

Yanis Varoufakis @yanisvaroufakis

Capital controls within a monetary union are a contradiction in terms. The Greek government opposes the very concept.

7:59 AM – 28 Jun 2015

Banks will remain shut until at least after a July 5 referendum called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on whether to accept austerity in exchange for a European bailout, Kathemerini newspaper reported, citing unnamed sources.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank Of Greece Pleads For Deal, Says “Uncontrollable Crisis”, “Soaring Inflation” Coming

June 17, 2015

Bank Of Greece Pleads For Deal, Says “Uncontrollable Crisis”, “Soaring Inflation” Coming

The situation in Greece has escalated meaningfully since last week. After the IMFeffectively threw in the towel and sent its negotiating team back to Washington on Thursday, EU and Greek officials agreed to meet in Brussels over the weekend in what was billed as a last ditch effort to end a long-running impasse and salvage some manner of deal in time to allow for the disbursement of at least part of the final tranche of aid ‘due’ to Greece under its second bailout program. Talks collapsed on Sunday however as Greek PM Alexis Tsipras, under pressure from the Left Platform, refused (again) to compromise on pension reform and the VAT, which are “red lines” for both the IMF and for Syriza party hardliners.

By Monday evening it was clear that both EU officials and Syriza’s radical left were drawing up plans for capital controls and a possible euro exit with Brussels looking to Thursday’s meeting of EU finance ministers in Luxembourg for a possible breakthrough. That seems unlikely however, given that Athens is sending FinMin Yanis Varoufakis whose last Eurogroup meeting ended with his being sidelined in negotiations after putting on a performance that led his counterparts to brand him an amateur, a gambler, and a time waster. For his part, Varoufakis says no new proposal will be tabled in Luxembourg as Eurogroup meetings aren’t the place for such discussions, which is ironic because Jean-Claude Juncker said something similar not long ago when the Greeks were trying to get a deal done at the very same Eurogroup meetings.

Perhaps realizing that pinning everyone’s hopes on a Thursday breakthrough is a fool’s errand, the EU will reportedly convene a high level, emergency meeting over what we’ve suggested may be a “Lehman Weekend” for the market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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