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5 signs of trouble for Saskatchewan’s economy in oil slump

5 signs of trouble for Saskatchewan’s economy in oil slump

Many said province could withstand economic blows from oil and gas, but there are troubling signs

When crude oil prices began to plummet, economists comforted Saskatchewan residents that their diversified economy would safeguard them during the oil and gas slump.

In fact, Saskatchewan’s economy isn’t that diverse.

The province relies heavily on natural resources: fuel, food and fertilizer.

fi-oil-pump-jacks-sask

The Canadian Association of Oil Drilling Contractors forecasts it will drill half as many wells in 2015 compared to 2014.

And while economists were banking on the agriculture and potash industries to offset energy losses, they’re no longer confident that will happen.

The potash industry remains strong in production, on par with its growth last year, but nitrogen prices have fallen about $60 US a tonne.

Most worrisome, it’s shaping up to be a disappointing crop year for many Saskatchewan farmers, thanks to an unwelcome mixture of spring frost, drought and poorly timed rains.

While cattle prices remain high, drought has jeopardized hay yields and could force some ranchers to sell off their herd.

The Bank of Montreal has already downgraded its growth projection for Saskatchewan this year from one per cent to half a per cent.

“It’s disappointing,” chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Douglas Porter, said. “The likelihood of a pretty tough crop this year further dims the outlook for western Canada.”

The Royal Bank of Canada told CBC News it expects to downgrade its growth projection next month as well.

Premier Brad Wall says he’s still confident the province can overcome economic pressures, and points to his government’s four-year plan to spend $5.8 billion on infrastructure.

Still, there are already red flags for the economy. Here are five signs of trouble:

1. Housing sales

The honeymoon is over for Saskatchewan’s housing boom.

The Canadian Real Estate Association predicts house sales in Saskatchewan will decline by nearly 13 per cent this year.

 

 

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TransUnion expects spike in debt delinquencies in Alberta, Saskatchewan

TransUnion expects spike in debt delinquencies in Alberta, Saskatchewan

Alberta and Saskatchewan will soon see a ‘sharp’ increase in the number of people falling behind on their debts for the rest of this year, credit agency TransUnion says.

The debt monitor said in a study released Wednesday that it is expecting the number of consumer credit delinquencies to increase by double-digits in Saskatchewan, and as much as 60 per cent in parts of Alberta.

Oil’s impact

The two provinces are disproportionately dependent on oil prices to drive their economy. In Alberta’s case, more than a quarter of the province’s GDP is tied to oil revenues, which have halved in the past year. In Saskatchewan’s case, the ratio is still high at more than one sixth of GDP tied to oil.

Cheap oil has hit those economies in many ways. “First, oil price drops cause lower oil sector investment,” TransUnion says. That leads to higher unemployment, which leads to less disposable income to spend in all other aspects of the economy.

“Consumers then have lower ability to service debt, finally resulting in higher delinquency rates,” TransUnion says.

Household Debt

The number of people who pay off only twice their minimum credit card payment has increased by 10 per cent in Fort McMurray since last summer, TransUnion says. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)


“Based on an historical analysis of the last oil crash and recent payment behaviour trends, we expect materially higher delinquency rates in Alberta and Saskatchewan in the second half of 2015,” the company’s research director Jason Wang said.

“If lenders do not take proactive measures to address the impact of the decline in oil prices, we could potentially see double-digit delinquency rate increases in Saskatchewan, and as much as a 60 per cent rise in areas of Alberta.”

 

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Canadian dollar dips below 77 cents with more pain to come

Canadian dollar dips below 77 cents with more pain to come

TD Bank predicts 73-cent loonie as effects of low oil linger

The Canadian dollar is nearing its low for the year Friday, after news that the economy contracted for a fifth straight month in May.

The loonie closed at 76.45 US cents, down half a cent from Thursday, after Statistics Canada said the economy shrank 0.2 per cent in May. The lowest close this year is 76.40 US cents.

TD Bank economist Leslie Preston says the dollar is likely to go to 73 cents this year, and will stay in the mid-70s for at least another year.

“Lower oil prices and more stimulative monetary policy also led us to downgrade our forecast for the loonie. We now expect the Canadian dollar to depreciate versus the U.S. dollar, reaching 73 cents by the second quarter of next year, before rising gradually back up to 76 cents by the end of 2016,” she said in a report to investors.

Canada’s economic performance is a sharp contrast from the U.S. economy, which grew 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of the year according to the latest assessment from the Commerce Department.

Low oil prices, which have stayed below $50 per barrel for the past month, are hurting capital investment by the oil sector and have resulted in elimination of hundreds of jobs.

The low loonie was supposed to help Canada boost exports and stimulate the manufacturing sector, especially with the U.S. in growth mode.

But despite a Bank of Canada rate cut earlier this month, the business outlook is still lacklustre.

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Home Capital scandal may presage a slowdown: Don Pittis

Home Capital scandal may presage a slowdown: Don Pittis

Is false income data a symptom of an industry that has run its course?

Could the scandal at Home Capital just be the beginning? The Canadian alternative mortgage company halted its shares after it was revealed that some of its brokers had been falsifying information on the income of mortgage customers.

As the soaring housing markets in Alberta and Saskatchewan go off the boil, a gradual weakening in Canada’s roaring real estate business may reveal more irregularities in the market.

It is a phenomenon we have seen happen so frequently that the uncovering of scandal in a market is often seen as a cause rather that a symptom of a market’s decline. Sometimes they go hand in hand.

On a conference call yesterday Home Capital CEO Gerald Soloway insisted that the problem with its brokers was not an indication of a mortgage fraud crisis across Canada. Home Capital’s delinquencies remain low, and the company says it has stopped doing business with the brokers that investigators had shown to be pretending customers’ income qualified them for mortgages.

Pressure to succeed

It is hard to draw a direct line of cause and effect between the first few scandals in a weakening market and that weakening.

But as markets get into trouble, more and more accounts get shuffled off to the riskier end of the business. Pressure to succeed intensifies. People trying to make a living are more willing to take shortcuts. And it is only as the markets weaken that shortcuts — or outright fraud — are revealed.

There are many examples but the most notorious case is Bernie Madoff, author of what many consider be the biggest swindle in U.S. history. Madoff’s scheme was to accept investors’ money and falsify the income statement on their investment returns. Even as other funds began to do badly, Madoff’s remained strong.

 

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What U.S. Fed chair Janet Yellen doesn’t know: Don Pittis

What U.S. Fed chair Janet Yellen doesn’t know: Don Pittis

Continued risks to a U.S. and Canadian economic recovery keep us guessing about interest rates

If everyone is so confident interest rates are going to go up in the autumn, why doesn’t U.S. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen just say they are going to go up in September? The answer is risk.

Before yesterday’s monetary policy statement from the Fed, released on paper without the benefit of an explanatory news conference, there was some speculation she would make that very announcement. But that’snot the way it turned out.

“The Fed effectively did this in 2004” — putting the markets on notice that a move would come soon — “shortly before it last embarked on a rate-increasing cycle,” said the Financial Times in an article anticipating the central bank’s latest pronouncement.

Seeking hints

But instead, the people who read each statement to glean the smallest hints about what the Fed will do next were disappointed about how little information it contained. There was a little optimism and a little pessimism but there was one sentence that summed up the gist of the538-word release.

“The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity,” said the statement unanimously agreed upon by Yellen and her advisors.

As Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the industry he championed discovered, risks are events that seem to come out of nowhere. The oil price plunge, followed by a general collapse in commodities prices, in a matter of months turned Canada from one of the world’s hottest economies into one on the verge of recession.

In the case of the U.S. economy, there are similar events that could change what has been a relatively positive outlook.

 

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Who’s afraid of $50 oil? (Answer: Canada’s oil industry)

Who’s afraid of $50 oil? (Answer: Canada’s oil industry)

Oil below $50 a barrel could spur another leg down for Canada’s oil industry

It may be high summer on the calendar, but Canada’s energy companies are already looking towards the coming winter.

What they see is looking worse now than it was even a month ago.

After a rough start to the year that saw companies lay off thousands of workers amid falling crude prices, lower cash flow and wounded share prices, a spring rally in oil was stirring hopes the dreaded other shoe might not drop.

A July-long slide took oil prices back below $50 a barrel, so a rally is looking less likely.

“It’s a very difficult time in our industry, one of the most difficult in decades,” said Tim McMillan, chief executive of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, the lobby group for the energy industry. “The mantra that I’ve heard pretty consistently from companies is preparing for lower for longer.”

Whether the earlier rounds of staffing cuts and budget reductions are preparation enough to weather what’s expected to be a dismal winter drilling season is a question that is already starting to be answered.

In the next few weeks, Canada’s oil companies will get down to the serious work of crafting next year’s budgets. Those plans will come together in September on the way to getting approved in November.

Winter drilling season

For Canada’s oil sector, the winter drilling season, which begins when the ground freezes enough for heavy equipment to move through the northern parts of the country, is where the rubber will hit the road for the industry.

Western Canada’s oil business follows a predictable quarterly pattern; busy in the first three months of the year, which is where companies make a lot of their money. Quiet for the next three during spring breakup, when rigs are taken down and moved through the muskeg before the seasonal warmth thaws the ground. And then a ramp-up through the second half of the year, which launches companies back into the peak busyness of winter.

 

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Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks peak as Canada eyes election timing

Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks peak as Canada eyes election timing

‘It’s hard to put out a press release during an election, let alone a 21st century trade agreement’

Pity Ed Fast’s campaign manager in Abbotsford, B.C.

While most MPs running for re-election are focused on campaigning, Stephen Harper’s trade minister is in Maui, Hawaii, this week to see if there’s a Trans-Pacific Partnership deal Canada can sign on to.

It’s an agreement, the prime minister said in June, that’s “essential” for Canada, establishing a basis for trade among not only the 12 Pacific Rim countries at the table, but others who could join later — like China, India or the Philippines.

A bad deal for Canada — or a deal so bad Canada has to walk away — would be another blow to the Conservatives’ election narrative of sound economic management.

Trade Minister Ed Fast

Trade Minister Ed Fast joins the talks Tuesday – and might have to interrupt his election campaigning in September if talks drag on. (Daniel Munoz/Reuters)

Fast appeared cool last week, not rising to the bait of Americans launching their position — a dismantling ofCanada’s marketing board regime for dairy, poultry and eggs — loud and clear in the media.

But as ministerial talks begin Tuesday, Fast faces awkward timing.

Newly enabled by fast-track authority from the U.S. Congress, the Americans and Japanese speak of concluding a deal now, and finalizing by the end of the year, before 2016 elections.

The Harper government might want to stretch final bargaining until its own vote is over — to strengthen its mandate and minimize electoral risks from what unfolds.

Timing not up to Canada

One of the trade minister’s former staff said it would be “next to impossible” for Canada to negotiate during the writ period.

Clinton-California

Public opinion in the U.S. is divided over the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal – but U.S. President Barack Obama has fast-track authority to get a deal done sooner rather than later. (Damian Dovarganes/Associated Press)

“It’s hard for a minister to put out a press release during an election campaign, let alone a 21st century trade agreement with 40 per cent of the world’s GDP,” said Adam Taylor, now with Ensight Canada’s international trade practice.

“I think people would never expect a democratic country in the middle of an election to come to the table to negotiate in a meaningful way.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Forget politics, here is what the economy needs: Don Pittis

Forget politics, here is what the economy needs: Don Pittis

Try seeking a recovery as if Canada weren’t in election mode

If Prime Minister Stephen Harper could wave a magic wand and make the Canadian economy boom, you’d think he would do it now.

It’s well-known that one of the main barriers for an existing government to get re-elected is a sagging economy. And despite Conservative Finance Minister Joe Oliver’s boasts on job creation and growth, there are plenty of signs that Canadians are hurting.

Oil and the loonie are plunging. And while Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz would prefer us not to use the word “recession” because it is “unhelpful,” it seems clear that Canada is in or close to that.

The fact that governments cannot snap their fingers and fix the economy is in some ways reassuring. It shows that the conspiracy theorists who think the world is being controlled by powerful cliques in smoke-filled rooms really are just wacky.

Part of the problem is that politics is complicated. Despite his government’s ability to pass practically any legislation, in so many ways, Harper’s hands are tied by external forces and those created by his own party.

That is why an imaginary government that did not have to worry about politics might do things differently.

One of the most obvious things to do when an economy is weakening is to spend. While it may be smart to run surpluses when the economy is booming, you don’t have to be a fanatical Keynesian to think it’s good to spend that surplus when the private sector economy is shrinking.

In this case, Harper is partly restricted by his own ideology. Switching from a balanced-budget, small-government focus to Keynesian largesse would seem like a flip-flop and could alienate a neo-conservative core.

 

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Oil prices are down, gasoline prices are not. What gives?

Oil prices are down, gasoline prices are not. What gives?

It’s a good summer to be selling gasoline, not a great one to be buying it

In mid-February, the price of oil hovered around $50 US a barrel, and a litre of gasoline cost, on average, $1.01 Cdn.

This week, the price of oil is hovering around $50 a barrel and the average price of a litre of gasoline is $1.22. A few small things have changed over that five-month period: the Canadian dollar is lower by about three cents; Alberta has added a four cent tax to gasoline bought in that province.

But the big difference is that refineries are making a killing this summer.

Refining margins are the difference between the cost of crude oil and the cost of wholesale gasoline.

‘We’re at that part of the summer where demand for gasoline is never going to be stronger.’ – Stephen Schork, Schork Report

Both Canadian and U.S. refining margins are running at seven- and eight -year highs. In Canada last month, the refining margin was 27.7 cents per litre according to data compiled by Michael Ervin of the Kent Group.

“We’re at that part of the summer where demand for gasoline is never going to be stronger,” said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, which is focused on commodities.

“We’re at the height of the northern-hemisphere peak-demand season.”

Demand for gasoline is high

Demand for gasoline is indeed very high this summer. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, gasoline demand is nearly seven per cent higher than it was a year ago. That’s a significant increase.

Refiners are going full steam right now, at over 90 per cent capacity, in order to keep up with demand.

 

 

Plunging loonie means inflation in store: Don Pittis

Plunging loonie means inflation in store: Don Pittis

Falling Canadian dollar means there are bargains to be had, but not for long

Taking a shortcut through an underground mall yesterday, I saw a couple who looked like Pan Am visitors ogling the low price of jewelry outside a little downtown Toronto shop.

Normally, we think of U.S. prices being cheaper than anything you get north of the border. But something special is going on with some Canadian goods right now.

As the Canadian dollar trades at lows not seen since 2004, it means that this year’s July sales may offer the best bargains you will see in a while. But it will come at a cost.

Statistical quirk?

The latest plunge is in some ways a statistical quirk, as you can see in the graph below. By falling under 77.85 cents US — the low hit on March 9, 2009 — suddenly the loonie was worth less that it had been through all the oil-boom years of the 2000s.

Dollar chart

The Canadian dollar is trading at lows not seen since 2004. (CBC)

While it may be just statistics, there is also a reason why that quirk may be significant to long-term pricing, ushering in a new round of sharply higher inflation.

Some goods, like fresh food and energy, can change on a day-by-day or a week-to-week basis. If there is frost in Florida, a shortage of oranges shows up in grocery store prices within days.

But for many other goods like clothes, jewelry, books, appliances and cars, prices are far less volatile, says Victoria-based retail consultant Richard Talbot.

Last year’s prices

In some cases, wholesale prices for goods already in the supply chain were set months ago. Mom-and-pop retailers especially will often set their markup on the wholesale prices they paid so that profit on current inventories will be calculated based on what they paid their wholesalers.

“Generally retailers order at least a year ahead of time,” says Talbot. “Until that stock is expended, the prices would remain much the same.”

 

 

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B.C. wildfire forces evacuation near Shelter Cove area of West Kelowna

B.C. wildfire forces evacuation near Shelter Cove area of West Kelowna

Darkness preventing helicopter or air tanker support from effectively assisting firefighters

Fire crews and officials scrambled to keep residents safe from a quickly spreading blaze near Westside Road in West Kelowna, B.C., which has so far destroyed at least one home.

The wildfire was sparked by lightning on Sunday afternoon, and had largely died down before erupting again late Monday. It’s now grown to 30 hectares in size, fuelled by strong winds and dry conditions, according to fire officials in the Central Okanagan Regional District.

Dramatic images on social media show it burning down the western slope of Okanagan Lake above Westside Road.


Fire still spreading. Smaller fire on the edge of lake next to house


The BC Wildfire Service says the fire is burning at Rank 4, which is described as a vigorous surface fire.

The service says in a release that an evacuation order has been recommended to the Central Okanagan Regional District for approximately 70 properties in the Shelter Cove area.

The district has confirmed to CBC News that it is trying to move people out from residences and properties along Westside Road near Shelter Cove between La Casa and Lake Okanagan Resort.

 

 

Greece crisis: Banks reopen as government eyes return to normalcy

Greece crisis: Banks reopen as government eyes return to normalcy

Stock market remains closed

Greek banks opened their doors Monday for the first time in over three weeks, a move that the government hopes will help the economy get back to normal following a period dominated by fears over the country’s future in the euro.

Still, strict controls on the amounts individuals can withdraw remain and new austerity taxes demanded by the country’s European creditors mean that most everyday items are more expensive — from coffee to taxis to cooking oil.

In downtown Athens, people queued up in an orderly fashion as the banks unlocked their doors at 8 a.m., but restrictions on most transactions remained.

Though the daily cash withdrawal limit stayed at 60 euros, the government has given individuals a new weekly limit of 420 euros from this coming Sunday so they don’t need to trudge to the ATM every day.

Ready cash is something Greeks will need as new taxes also came into effect on a wide array of goods and services Monday.

Sales taxes have risen from 13 per cent to 23 per cent on many basic goods — including some meats, cooking oils, coffee, tea, cocoa, vinegar, salt, flowers, firewood, fertilizer, insecticides, sanitary towels and condoms.

Popular services were also hit by the new taxes: restaurants and cafes, funeral homes, taxis, ferries, cram schools and language schools.

The new taxes are part of a package of confidence-building measures that the Greek government had to introduce in order for negotiations on a third bailout to begin.

Since the Greek parliament passed the measures, creditors have sought to relieve the pressure on Greece. The European Central Bank has raised the amount of liquidity assistance on offer to Greek banks while Greece’s partners in the 19-country eurozone agreed to give Athens a short-term loan so it wouldn’t default on a 4.2 billion-euro debt due to the ECB on Monday.

 

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Microplastics at ‘alarming levels’ in Canadian lakes and rivers

Microplastics at ‘alarming levels’ in Canadian lakes and rivers

Microbeads just tip of plastic iceberg floating in Canadian waters

Tiny plastic pellets called microbeads have gotten a lot of attention as a major water pollutant, but less-discussed microplastics are equally concerning, according to new research being done in Canada.

“In recent years, they’ve been detected in a growing number of lakes and rivers worldwide. They’re everywhere, and often in alarming levels,” said Anthony Ricciardi, a professor at the McGill School of the Environment, who is working on a study about microplastics.

Microplastics are small particles of plastic less than five millimetres in size that are often found in bodies of water near large urban populations. Microbeads, which are used in toothpastes, makeup and body cleansers, are one part of the broader category of microplastics.

MICROPLASTICS JULY 15 2015 sample closeup

Biologist Lisa Erdle points out a tiny fake leaf made of plastic hidden in her sample of sediment from Lake Ontario on July 15, 2015. Her team is searching for plastics smaller than 5 mm in diameter to study the level of microplastic pollution in Canadian fresh waters. (Micki Cowan/CBC)

Microbeads are “getting all the attention, but they’re only one component to this,” Ricciardi said. “As time goes on, people are going to realize the importance of the other pieces, too.”

A 2014 study of the U.S. Great Lakes by the 5 Gyres Institute found an average of 43,000 microplastic particles per square kilometre. Near cities, the number jumped to 466,000.

Dislodged from clothing in the wash

The plastic particles in the Great Lakes include microbeads, but also come from other sources, such as bits of polymer that detach from clothing when it is washed, as well as granules from industrial abrasives.

 

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Canadian dollar dips below 77 cents for first time since 2009

Canadian dollar dips below 77 cents for first time since 2009

As strong U.S. dollar helps push loonie to 6-year low, analyst sees possible drop to 73 cents

MARKETS-CANADA/CURRENCY

The Canadian dollar fell below 77 cents against the U.S. dollar on July 17, 2015. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

The Canadian dollar dropped to below 77 cents against the U.S. dollar on Friday for the first time since March 2009.

The Canadian dollar seesawed above and below the 77-cent level all day before closing at 77 cents US when stock markets closed.

The loonie started falling on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate to 0.5 per cent. The loonie lost more than a penny against the U.S. dollar that day, its worst one-day performance this year.

“It’s a perfect storm of events that’s sinking the Canadian dollar,” Adam Button, a currency analyst with ForexLive.com, told CBC News in an interview. He cited the collapse in oil prices that began last summer and the soaring value of the U.S. dollar.

“Almost at the exact same time as the Bank of Canada cut [rates], the Federal Reserve was talking about hiking rates,” added Button. “The U.S. and Canadian economies are wildly diverging at the moment.”

The Canadian dollar could plunge even lower, Button warned. He sees the loonie “on the brink of an 11-year low,” falling as low as 73 cents against the U.S. dollar in the next month.

U.S. economic momentum

Rising inflation in the U.S. helped boost the U.S. dollar at the loonie’s expense today, Karl Schamotta, director of foreign exchange research and strategy with Cambridge Global Payments, told CBC News.

“We see increasing signs of momentum in the American economy, and that’s likely to push the Federal Open Markets Committee toward [an interest rate hike] in the early part of the fall,” said Schamotta.

 

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Nexen pipeline leak in Alberta spills 5 million litres

Nexen pipeline leak in Alberta spills 5 million litres

Nexen Energy spill south of Fort McMurray covers about 16,000 square metres

One of the largest leaks in Alberta history has spilled about five million litres of emulsion from a Nexen Energy pipeline at the company’s Long Lake oilsands facility south of Fort McMurray.

The leak was discovered Wednesday afternoon.

Nexen said in a statement its emergency response plan has been activated and personnel were onsite. The leak has been stabilized, the company said.

The spill covered an area of about 16,000 square metres, mostly within the pipeline corridor, the company said. Emulsion is a mixture of bitumen, water and sand.

The pipeline that leaked is called a “feeder” and runs from a wellhead to the processing plant.

“All necessary steps and precautions have been taken, and Nexen will continue to utilize all its resources to protect the health and safety of our employees, contractors, the public and the environment, and to contain and clean up the spill,” the company said in the statement issued Thursday.

Peter Murchland, public affairs manager for the Alberta Energy Regulator, said officials were notified late Wednesday and had staff onsite Thursday to work with Nexen.

“My understanding is that the pipeline and pad site had been isolated and shut-in earlier today, effectively stopping the source of the release,” Murchland said

Nexen has contained the leak and started cleaning up the area, he said. There was no word on how long that might take.

“They go through a cleanup phase in accordance with the regulations set by the AER,” he said. “And we’ll have our subject-matter experts work alongside the operator, today and going forward, to make sure that safety and environmental requirements are met.”

The regulator’s staff are there to oversee the company’s cleanup efforts. Murchland said there have been no reports about any effect on wildlife. The regulator has ordered the company to implement a wildlife protection plan.

 

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