Home » Posts tagged 'SRSrocco report' (Page 11)

Tag Archives: SRSrocco report

As investors’ bullish sentiment moves up to euphoric levels, the markets are reaching extreme leverage. This is terrible news because a lot of people are going to lose one heck of a lot of money. According to CNN Money’s Fear & Greed Index, the market is now at the “extreme greed” level and if we go by Yardeni Research on “Investor Intelligence Bull-Bear Ratio,” it’s also is the highest ratio in 30 years.

But, of course… this time is different. I continue to receive emails and comments on my blog that the Fed will continue to prop up the markets. Unfortunately, there is only so much the Fed can do to rig the markets. Furthermore, the Fed can’t do much to mitigate investor insanity in record NYSE margin debt or the massive $2 trillion in the global short volatility trade.

The record NYSE margin debt suggests traders have racked up a record amount of margin debt (33% more since 2007) and the largest short volatility trade in history. By shorting volatility, investors are betting that it will continue to move lower. A falling volatility index suggests more calm and complacency in the markets.

So, the market will likely continue higher and higher, until it finally POPS. And when it does, watch out.

I’ve put together some charts showing the extreme amount of leverage in the markets. While this leverage may increase for a while, at some point the insanity will end in one hell of a market correction-crash.

The Commercial Banks Are Betting On Much Lower Oil Prices

As I mentioned in previous articles and my Youtube video, Coming Big Oil Price Drop & Market Crash, the Commercial banks have the highest net short positions in the oil market in over 20 years. In the video, I explained how the Commercial net short position in oil increased from 648,000 to 678,000 contracts in just one week.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will The Coming Big Oil Price Drop Cause The Next Stock Market Crash?

January 17, 2018

Will The Coming Big Oil Price Drop Cause The Next Stock Market Crash?

The oil market price is setting up for one heck of a fall. Now, could this large oil correction cause the next stock market crash? Time will tell. However, the indicators in the oil market are showing the largest net commercial short positions in history. The current net commercial short positions in the oil market are even higher by 174,000 contracts than the level when the oil price fell from $105 in mid-2014 to a low of $30 at the beginning of 2016.

Furthermore, there was a previous trend in the 1980’s that suggests we are setting up for a MAJOR stock market crash. I discuss the details of the current record net commercial short positions and the similar setup that took place during the 1980’s in my newest video, Will The Coming Big Oil Price Drop Cause The Next Stock Market Crash?

Here is one of the charts discussed in the video presentation above:

As we can see in this COT Report (Commitment Of Traders), the commercial net short positions jumped from 648,000 to 674,000 in the past week. However, this chart only shows the change traders’ positions over one year. To see how large the present commercial net short positions, please check out the short 12-minute video.

I believe the oil and stock markets are setting up for one large correction or even a market crash. Thus, as the stock markets crack, we will likely see a huge move by retail investors into Gold ETF’s as well as precious metals investors tremendously increase their demand for physical gold and silver investment.

Chinese Physical Gold Investment Demand Surges While Americans Pile Into Stock & Crypto Bubbles

January 16, 2018

Chinese Physical Gold Investment Demand Surges While Americans Pile Into Stock & Crypto Bubbles

Chinese demand for physical gold investment surged in the first three-quarters of 2017 while Americans ditched the shiny yellow metal for increased bets in the crypto mania and stock market bubble market. Even though China’s Hang Seng Stock Market outperformed the Dow Jones Index last year, Chinese citizens purchased the most gold bar and coin products Q1-Q3 2017 since the same period in 2013, when they took advantage of huge gold market price selloff.

According to the World Gold Council, Chinese gold bar and coin demand increased to 233 metric tons (mt) in the first three-quarters of 2017 compared to 162 mt in the same period last year. Furthermore, if we include Indian gold bar and coin demand, China and India consumed nearly half of the world’s total:

As we can see, China and India consumed 338 mt of gold bar and coin products which accounted for 47% of the total 715 mt Q1-Q3 2017. German gold bar and coin demand of 81 mt took the third highest spot followed by Thailand (49 mt), Turkey (47 mt), Switzerland (31 mt) and the United States (30 mt). Chinese gold bar and coin demand of 233 mt nearly equaled the total demand by German, Thailand, Turkey, Switzerland and the United States of 238 mt.

If we compare gold bar and coin demand by these countries in the same period last year, we can see some interesting changes:

While the increase in Chinese gold bar and coin demand was the big winner (162 mt to 233 mt), Turkish demand nearly doubled from 24 mt in 2016 to 47 mt this year. However, the biggest loser in the group was in the United States. U.S. Gold bar and coin demand fell substantially to 30 mt Q1-Q3 2017 from 66 mt during the same period last year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Debt Is Rising Nearly Three Times As Fast As Total Global Wealth

January 9, 2018

World Debt Is Rising Nearly Three Times As Fast As Total Global Wealth

Some nasty dark clouds are forming on the financial horizon as total world debt is increasing nearly three times as fast as total global wealth. But, that’s okay because no one cares about the debt, only the assets matter nowadays. You see, as long as debts are someone else’s problem, we can add as much debt as we like… or so the market believes.

Now, you don’t have to take my word for it that the market only focuses on the assets, this comes straight from the top echelons of the financial world. According to Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2017, total global wealth increased to a new record of $280 trillion in 2017. Here is Credit Suisse’s summary of the Global Wealth 2017: The Year In Review:

According to the eighth edition of the Global Wealth Report, in the year to mid-2017, total global wealth rose at a rate of 6.4%, the fastest pace since 2012 and reached USD 280 trillion, a gain of USD 16.7 trillion. This reflected widespread gains in equity markets matched by similar rises in non-financial assets, which moved above the pre-crisis year 2007’s level for the first time this year. Wealth growth also outpaced population growth, so that global mean wealth per adult grew by 4.9% and reached a new record high of USD 56,540 per adult.

This year’s report focuses in on Millennials and their wealth accumulation prospects. Overall the data point to a “Millennial disadvantage”, comprising among others tighter mortgage rules, growing house prices, increased income inequality and lower income mobility, which holds back wealth accumulation by young workers and savers in many countries. However, bright spots remain, with a recent upsurge in the number of Forbes billionaires below the age of 30 and a more positive picture in China and other emerging markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. Gold Market Switches From A Surplus In 2016 To Deficit In 2017

January 6, 2018

U.S. Gold Market Switches From A Surplus In 2016 To Deficit In 2017

The U.S. gold market suffered a net deficit this year compared to a small surplus in 2016. This was quite interesting because U.S. physical gold demand will be down considerably this year. In 2016, total U.S. gold demand was 212 metric tons versus an estimated 150 metric tons this year. The majority of the decline in U.S. gold demand is from the physical bar and coin sector that is down 56% in the first three quarters of 2017 compared to the same period last year.

So, why will the U.S. gold market suffer a deficit if gold demand is down sharply this year? Well, it seems as if the culprit is the huge increase in net gold exports. Last year, the U.S. imported 374 metric tons (mt) of gold and exported 398 mt for a net 24 mt deficit. However, this year, estimates for U.S. gold imports will fall to 250 mt while exports increase to 475 mt. Thus, the U.S. net export deficit will be 225 mt in 2017:

However, if we look at all the data in the chart above, the U.S. gold market will experience a net 76 mt deficit in 2017 versus a 44 mt surplus last year (bars right-hand side of chart). Again, we can see that U.S. gold imports are estimated to decline significantly this year to 250 mt compared to 374 mt in 2016. Furthermore, total U.S. gold exports are forecasted to increase to 475 mt this year versus 398 mt in 2016.

When we factor in U.S. gold mine supply, domestic consumption, and gold scrap supply, the market will go from a small 44 mt surplus in 2016 to a 76 net deficit this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Leveraged Economy BLOWS UP In 2018

January 5, 2018

The Leveraged Economy BLOWS UP In 2018

Enjoy the good times while you can because when the economy BLOWS UP this next time, there is no plan B. Sure, we could see massive monetary printing by Central Banks to continue the madness a bit longer after the market crashes, but this won’t be a long-term solution. Rather, the U.S. and global economies will contract to a level we have never experienced before. We are most certainly in unchartered territory.

Before I get into my analysis and the reasons we are heading towards the Seneca Cliff, I wanted to share the following information. I haven’t posted much material over the past week because I decided to spend a bit of quality time with family. Furthermore, a good friend of mine past away which put me in a state of reflection. This close friend was also very knowledgeable about our current economic predicament and was a big believer in owning gold and silver. So, it was a quite a shame to lose someone close by who I could chat with about these issues.

While some of my family members know about my work, I don’t really discuss it with them. If they ever have a question, I will try to answer it, but I found out years ago that it was a waste of time to try and impose my knowledge upon them. Which is the very reason I started my SRSrocco Report website… LOL. So, now I have a venue to get my analysis out to the public. I don’t care about reaching everyone, but rather to provide important information to those who are OPEN to it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How The Investor Fundamentally Changed The Silver Market

December 31, 2017

How The Investor Fundamentally Changed The Silver Market

While silver investors continue to be discouraged about the low price, the market has experienced a fundamental change that needs to be understood. Ever since governments removed silver from official coinage, over 50 years ago, the market has been supplemented by several billion ounces of silver. The majority of that supply has been depleted.

The reason the United States and other countries stopped producing official silver coinage wasn’t due to any monetary conspiracy; rather it was based on a straightforward problem; supply versus demand. Because industrial silver consumption had skyrocketed after World War 2, the silver market would have suffered deficits if the U.S. Treasury didn’t sell silver into the market.

It was quite simple; there just wasn’t enough silver to go around. So, governments started to reduce, then eliminate silver from their coinage in the 1960’s. A lot of this silver, known as “junk silver,” was either purchased by investors or remelted and sold back as supply into the market. While there is no way of knowing how much of the older official junk silver remains in the market, the majority of it was recycled for much-needed supply.

We can see the dwindling down of government stocks and older official silver coinage in the following chart:

The BLUE bars represent silver scrap supply, and the OLIVE colored bars show the amount of net government silver sales. From 2000 to 2013, governments sold 636 million oz (Moz) of silver into the market. Net government sales were from stockpiled silver and older official coins. However, in 2014, this supply totally dried up. For the past four years, there haven’t been any government silver sales.

Another interesting aspect of this chart is the declining amount of silver scrap supply. Even though the price of silver during the 2015-2017 period was much higher than from 2000-2007, scrap supply is considerably less.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE U.S. SHALE OIL INDUSTRY: Swindling & Stealing Energy To Stay Alive

December 27, 2017

THE U.S. SHALE OIL INDUSTRY: Swindling & Stealing Energy To Stay Alive

While the U.S. Shale Energy Industry continues to borrow money to produce uneconomical oil and gas, there is another important phenomenon that is not understood by the analyst community. The critical factor overlooked by the media is the fact that the U.S. shale industry is swindling and stealing energy from other areas to stay alive. Let me explain.

First, let’s take a look at some interesting graphs done by the Bloomberg Gadfly. The first chart below shows how the U.S. shale industry continues to burn through investor cash regardless of $100 or $50 oil prices:

The chart above shows the negative free cash flow for 33 shale-weighted E&P companies. Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, these companies spent more money producing shale energy in the top four U.S. shale fields than they made from operations. While costs to produce shale oil and gas came down in 2015 and 2016 (due to lower energy input prices), these companies still spent more money than they made. As we can see, the Permian basin (in black) gets the first place award for losing the most money in the group.

Now, burning through investor money to produce low-quality, subpar oil is only part of the story. The shale energy companies utilized another tactic to bring in additional funds from the POOR SLOBS in the retail investment community… it’s called equity issuance. This next chart reveals the annual equity issuance by the U.S. E&P companies:

According to the information in the chart, the U.S. E&P companies will have raised over $100 billion between 2012 and 2017 by issuing new stock to investors. If we add up the funds borrowed by the U.S. E&P companies (negative free cash flow), plus the stock issuance, we have the following chart:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

CPM Group’s Jeff Christian Responds “NEGATIVELY” To The SRSrocco Report On Silver Investment Demand

December 12, 2017

CPM Group’s Jeff Christian Responds “NEGATIVELY” To The SRSrocco Report On Silver Investment Demand

The debate continues between the SRSrocco Report and CPM Group’s Jeff Christian on the fundamentals of the silver market. After my article, in which I questioned the CPM Group’s exclusion of silver investment demand from their supply and demand analysis, Jeff Christian responded with a comment on my website. I am glad that Mr. Christian responded because it now allows me the opportunity to explain in more detail why I disagree with the CPM Group’s analysis.

As I have mentioned before, this has nothing to do with the individual or the company, but rather what I see as faulty analysis. The whole idea of public writing is to be able to look at all sides of the story. I have the right to disagree with someone else and to explain the reasons in my articles. However, I have seen individuals in our alternative media community call names or ridicule individual’s that they are in disagreement. I don’t believe that is the correct way to provide open debate as it focuses on the messenger, not the message. (photo above left, courtesy of Kitco.com)

Before I get into the details on why I disagree with the CPM Group’s analysis on the silver market, I wanted to share a few things. My analysis of the precious metals market has changed since I started writing articles in 2008. Early on, I didn’t consider the impact of energy on the precious metals or the overall market and economy. Furthermore, I stopped putting out price forecasts several years ago because it became apparent to me that it was impossible to do so. Analysts who continue to put out specific price forecasts have been met with a great deal of frustration.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. ECONOMIC CRISIS AHEAD: Major Failure Of Analysts To Spot Danger

December 9, 2017

U.S. ECONOMIC CRISIS AHEAD: Major Failure Of Analysts To Spot Danger

The U.S. economy continues towards an epic crisis while the overwhelming majority of analysts are completely in the dark. Even though some alternative media analysts understand that our highly leveraged fiat monetary system and markets will crash, they fail to understand the underlying reasons. Thus, we are heading into a future we are not prepared because… the BLIND continues to lead the BLIND.

I don’t mean to be harsh on my fellow analysts, but the truth remains that the public is being misled due to the inability of market analysts unable to spot the real dangers. So, we continue to move step-by-step closer to the edge of the cliff while “no one seems to notice or no one seems to care” (George Carlin-comedian). I have to tell you; I miss ole George Carlin. Yes, he had a filthy mouth, but the truth in his comedic material gave me hours of much-needed laughter.

To explain what I mean about the “Major failure of analysts to spot Danger,” I am going to provide two examples and some additional information. It is crucial that the reader understand the FACTS and REAL DATA about our dire predicament and not become lost or confused in regards to lousy conspiracies or misinformation.

When I wrote the article, THE BLIND CONSPIRACY: The Gold Market Is Heading Towards A Big Fundamental Change; I thought for sure the individual and his analysis that I was calling into question would read the facts and data in my article and realize his error. However, it seems as if it provided quite the opposite reaction.

Mr. Weir spent 50 minutes of his time putting together another video about the Massive Billion Ounces of Hidden Gold in the Grand Canyon:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE BLIND CONSPIRACY: The Gold Market Is Heading Towards A Big Fundamental Change

December 2, 2017

THE BLIND CONSPIRACY: The Gold Market Is Heading Towards A Big Fundamental Change

The gold market is heading towards a big fundamental change that few are prepared. While many analysts in the alternative media community suggest that the gold price is manipulated due to Fed and Central bank intervention, there is another more obscure rationale that is the likely culprit. I call it, “The Blind Conspiracy.”

But, before I get into the details of this Blind Conspiracy, there are a few very troubling developments in the alternative media community that I would like to discuss first. The bulk of these concerns has to do with the increasing amount of faulty analysis and misinformation as well as the peddling of lousy conspiracy theories on the internet.

Why is this a big problem? Because a lot of readers are being misguided as to the true nature of the serious predicament we are facing. Half of the emails that I receive are from readers who are bringing up doubts based on other analysts’ faulty analysis and misinformation. Thus, it takes a great deal of effort to provide the real facts and data to counteract the damage being done by certain individuals, even those with good intentions.

Furthermore, an increasing number of so-called precious metals analysts have switched over to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, believing that gold and silver will no longer function as monetary metals. However, some of these analysts suggest that silver will still be valuable because it will be used as critical raw material in advanced products in our new HIGH-TECH WORLD. I find this idea of a future modern high-tech world quite amusing when we can’t even maintain the failing complex infrastructure we are currently using.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

SELLING OUT OF PRECIOUS METALS & BUYING BITCOIN…. Very Bad Idea

November 22, 2017

SELLING OUT OF PRECIOUS METALS & BUYING BITCOIN…. Very Bad Idea

There is a new trend by individuals in the alternative media community who are now selling out of precious metals and buying into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. While this may seem like a good idea, especially when Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies reach new all-time highs, it is likely a big mistake. Now, I am not saying that individuals shouldn’t invest in cryptocurrencies. Rather, it’s a lousy idea to sell all of one’s precious metals holdings and put it all into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Recently, Sean at SGTReport published a short video in which part of the headlined was titled as “SILVER BULL CAPITULATES.” In the video, Sean explains how past frequent guest and precious metal analyst, Andy Hoffman, has sold out of all his silver and is now only in Bitcoin and gold. Andy explains in his interview on Crush The Street that he sold all of his silver this summer as he really has no interest in it. He goes on to say, “Because, in a digital age, I just don’t believe people are going to store thousands of pounds of silver hoping that the gold-silver ratio is going to come down.”

I have to tell you, not only do I find this sort of thinking, utterly preposterous, I also find it quite troubling that analysts who have been promoting precious metals for the past decade are now implying that gold and silver are no longer high-quality stores of value. I disagree entirely with this faulty and superficial analysis.

There are several reasons why I believe it is essential to hold most of one’s wealth in precious metals than in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. However, the most important factor has to do with the fragile nature of a highly technical complex system that allows Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to function.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. SHALE OIL PRODUCTION UPDATE: Financial Carnage Continues To Gut Industry

November 15, 2017

U.S. SHALE OIL PRODUCTION UPDATE: Financial Carnage Continues To Gut Industry

As the Mainstream media reports about the next phase of the glorious U.S. Shale Oil Revolution, the financial carnage continues to gut the industry deep down inside the entrails of its horizontal laterals. The stench of fracking fluid must be driving shale oil advocates utterly insane as they are no longer able to see the financial wreckage taking place in these companies quarterly reports.

This weekend, one of my readers sent me the following Bloomberg 45 minute TV special titled, The Next Shale Revolution. If you are in need of a good laugh, I highly recommend watching part of the video. At the beginning of the video, it starts off with President Trump stating that the U.S. has become an energy exporter for the first time ever. Trump goes on to say, “that powered by new innovation and technology, we are now on the cusp of a new energy revolution.” While I have to applaud Trump’s efforts for putting out some positive and reassuring news, I wonder who is providing him with terribly inaccurate energy information.

I would kindly like to remind the reader; the United States is still a NET IMPORTER of oil. We still import nearly six million barrels of oil per day, but we export some finished products and a percentage of our shale oil production. Thus, we still import a net of approximately three million barrels per day of oil.

A few minutes into the Bloomberg video, both Pioneer Resources Chairman, Scott Sheffield, and Continental Resources CEO, Harold Hamm, explain how advanced technology will revolutionize the shale oil industry and bring down costs. I find that statement quite hilarious as Continental Resources and Pioneer continue to spend more money drilling for oil and gas then they make from their operations.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Gold Investment Demand To Overwhelm Supply During Next Market Crash

November 13, 2017

Global Gold Investment Demand To Overwhelm Supply During Next Market Crash

When the next market crash occurs, global gold investment demand will likely overwhelm supply. When this occurs, we could finally see the gold price surpass its previous high of $1,900. Now, this isn’t mere speculation, as we already have seen this taking place in the past. When the broader markets crashed to the lows in Q1 2009 and the 10% correction in Q1 in 2016, these periods were to two highest quarters of Gold ETF investment demand.

I don’t really care on whether the physical gold is actually in the Gold ETF’s, rather I like to look at it as an important indicator that shows us how much investor fear there is in the market. Moreover, with the amount of leverage and debt now in the system, when the market crashes this time around, it will push gold investment demand up to a record we have never seen before.

The chart below shows the amount of physical global gold investment demand over the past 14 years. As the gold price increased, so did amount of gold bar and coin demand:

As we can see, during the U.S. Banking and Housing Market crash in 2008, gold bar and coin demand doubled to 868 metric tons (mt), up from 434 mt in 2007. That was quite a lot of gold bar and coin demand as it totaled nearly 28 million oz (1 metric ton = 32,150 oz). Furthermore, as the gold price jumped to $1,571 in 2011, gold bar and coin demand shot up to nearly 1,500 mt (48 million oz).

Now, the reason for the huge spike in physical gold investment in 2013 was due to the huge price smash as the gold price fell from nearly $1,700 in the beginning of the year to a low of $1,380 by the middle of April. Investors thought this was a huge sale on gold so demand for bars and coins reached a new record of 1,716 mt.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: Highly Inflated Bubble To Super-Charged Tulip

November 7, 2017

THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: Highly Inflated Bubble To Super-Charged Tulip Mania

Investors need to be concerned that the U.S. Stock Market is well beyond bubble territory as it has now entered into the final stage of a Super-Charged Tulip Mania. Not only are stock prices inflated well above anything we have ever seen before, but valuations are also reaching heights that are totally unsustainable. Unfortunately, these highly inflated share prices and insane valuations seem normal to investors who are suffering from brain damage as years of mainstream propaganda have turned the soft tissue in their skulls to mush.

Also, we are way beyond “Boiling Frogs” now. Yes, we passed that stage a while back. Today, the typical U.S. investor has been fried to death. Investors now resemble a super-crisp chicken-wing with very little meat on it but at least will offer, one hell of a crunch. Please realize I don’t mean to be harsh about my fellow investor. However, when I look around and see what 99% of the market is doing, it reminds me of a famous line from the movie Aliens. The star of the movie, after being found lost in deep space for many years, said the following in a meeting, “Did IQ’s drop sharply while I was away?”

We find out in the rest of the movie that the so-called Mainstream experts were totally wrong about their assessment of the situation. However, billions of dollars were still spent and many lives lost because high-level individuals infected with stupidity (in the Aliens Movie) still controlled the shots. No different than today.

Regardless, the U.S. Stock Market has entered into the last stage, which I call the Super-Charged Tulip Mania. In this stage, it wouldn’t matter if the North Koreans launched a nuclear missile and declared war on the rest of the world, the universe and all Aliens floating around in space.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tag Archives: SRSrocco report

Content

Post categories

Economic Links

Energy/Resource Links

Environmental Links

Geopolitical Links

Liberty Links

News Links

Other Links

Survival Skills

Post Archives by Category

Post navigation

Latest Posts