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Tag Archives: gdp
How Much Illusion in GDP? What You See Is Not What You Get
How Much Illusion in GDP? What You See Is Not What You Get Oh, the revisions. The US economy, as measured by “real” GDP (adjusted for a version of inflation) grew 0.74% in the third quarter, compared to the prior quarter. That was a tad slower than the 0.76% growth in Q2, but up from […]
Why GDP Is Fake
Why GDP Is Fake Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is the most commonly used measure and ranking of a nation’s economy. According to the OECD and Wikipedia, its definition is: “an aggregate measure of production equal to the sum of the gross values added of all resident and institutional units engaged in production (plus any taxes, and […]
Falling Interest Rates
Falling Interest Rates Amassing Unproductive Debt Last week, we discussed the marginal productivity of debt. This is how much each newly-borrowed dollar adds to GDP. And ever since the interest rate began its falling trend in 1981, marginal productivity of debt has tightly correlated with interest. The lower the interest rate, the less productive additional […]
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis
The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting […]
GDP Is Bogus: Here’s Why
GDP Is Bogus: Here’s Why Here’s a chart of our fabulous always-higher GDP, adjusted for another bogus metric, official inflation. The theme this week is The Rot Within. The rot eating away at our society and economy is typically papered over with bogus statistics that “prove” everything’s getting better every day in every way. The […]
The Falling Productivity of Debt
The Falling Productivity of Debt Discounting the Present Value of Future Income Last week, we discussed the ongoing fall of dividend, and especially earnings, yields. This Report is not a stock letter, and we make no stock market predictions. We talk about this phenomenon to make a different point. The discount rate has fallen to […]
BIS Finds Global Debt May Be Underreported By $14 Trillion
BIS Finds Global Debt May Be Underreported By $14 Trillion In its latest annual summary published at the end of June, the IIF found that total nominal global debt had risen to a new all time high of $217 trillion, or 327% of global GDP… … largely as a result of an unprecedented increase in […]
The Cardinal Sin Of Investing: Permanent Impairment Of Capital
Victor Moussa/Shutterstock The Cardinal Sin Of Investing: Permanent Impairment Of Capital How to avoid making it Last week we presented a parade of indicators published by Grant Williams and Lance Roberts that warned of an approaching market correction as well as a coming economic recession. The key message was: When smart analysts independently find the same […]
Bank of America Stumbles On A $51 Trillion Problem
Bank of America Stumbles On A $51 Trillion Problem At the end of June, the Institute of International Finance delivered a troubling verdict: in a period of so-called “coordinated growth”, total global debt (including financial) hit a new all time high of $217 trillion in 2017, over 327% of global GDP, and up $50 trillion […]
Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates… Again
Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates… Again For the second time in less than two months, the Bank of Canada has raised interest rates. On Wednesday, the central bank raised its overnight lending rate by a quarter per cent to 1 per cent. The move surprised many who weren’t expecting a rate increase until later […]
Does Government Spending Create More Economic Growth?
Does Government Spending Create More Economic Growth? After the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, fears of ballooning public debt and worries about the drag on economic growth pushed authorities in some countries to lower government spending, a tactic that economists now think may have slowed recovery. Note that in the United States the total debt to […]
The Normalization Delusion
The Normalization Delusion LONDON – There is a psychological bias to believe that exceptional events eventually give way to a return to “normal times.” Many economic commentators now focus on prospects for “exit” from nearly a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, with central banks reducing their balance sheets to “normal” levels and gradually raising interest […]
Why We’re Doomed: Stagnant Wages
Why We’re Doomed: Stagnant Wages The point is the present system cannot endure. Despite all the happy talk about “recovery” and higher growth, wages have gone nowhere since 2000–and for the bottom 20% of workers, they’ve gone nowhere since the 1970s. Gross domestic product (GDP) has risen smartly since 2000, but the share of GDP […]
Opinion: No, hurricanes are not good for the economy
Opinion: No, hurricanes are not good for the economy Yes, GDP may get a temporary boost from rebuilding, but there’s nothing positive about destruction REUTERS/Adrees LatifThink of the increased production of motor vehicles to replace all those flooded trucks! Once the immediate danger of a natural disaster subsides, and the loss of life, property damage, […]
Why Doesn’t This Household Debt Worry Anyone?!
Why Doesn’t This Household Debt Worry Anyone?! With all the attention going to political tensions between the USA and North Korea and the interest rate policies and monetary policies established by the various central banks around the world, we would almost forget to keep track of how the ‘real’ economy is doing. And then we […]
