Why deflation is unlikely
Financial markets are becoming aware that the US economy is stalling, so investors increasingly take the view that with demand likely to stagnate or even fall, prices for goods and services will soften. This is already threatening to be the situation in a number of other advanced nations, with negative interest rates to combat it becoming commonplace. For this reason, gold and silver priced in dollars are expected by many traders to drift lower.
Putting the prices of precious metals to one side for a moment, there are some serious issues with this analysis. Let us assume for a moment that the US economy does stall; the text-books tell us supply and demand for goods and services will rebalance at lower prices. This was what effectively happened in the wake of the Lehman Crisis, when energy, metals and precious metal prices all fell sharply and large discounts for manufactured capital goods became available. This does not mean that second time round (and a sliding US economy could create the sort of financial strains that make Lehman look like a walk in the park), the same thing will happen again. Indeed, for next time the central banks already have a plan to contain the situation based on their experience in the Lehman Crisis. It involves the rapid expansion of money, which to the Federal Reserve System (“Fed”) at least has been proven on recent experience to have little or no inflationary consequences whatever.
We therefore know something we did not know in the wake of August 2008, when the imminent collapse of the global banking system drove everyone to increase their cash balances. This time we know that last time’s guarantees of $13 trillion, or whatever sum you care to think of, will yet again be provided by the Fed, backed by hard cash on demand. Forget bail-ins; they are for dealing with one-off bank insolvencies, not a wider systemic crisis.
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