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U.S. Mint Rations Bullion Coins – Why Aren’t Prices Rising, Too?

Why bullion prices don’t seem to be in line with demand

Despite record demand for gold and silver bullion coins month after month, the prices of both metals continue to linger within limited ranges. Gold even pulled back to just above $1,800 during Friday’s trading session. So what’s going on? Why isn’t the clearly-demonstrated demand driving prices higher?

U.S. Mint director Ed Moy, whose tenure stretched from 2006 to 2011, recognizes today’s situation and draws many parallels to the start of 2008:

The last time demand was this high was during the [2008-2009] financial crisis. People were panicking and buying into gold, and prices were shooting up. Then the government started injecting both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and you saw gold correct down maybe 20-30%. And then, over the next three years, gold began to climb until it set a new record of $1,925 in 2011. Afterward, gold didn’t decline until it became clear that the economic recovery was going to be slow, which eliminated the uncertainty. The Fed also had the time to mop up all the excess liquidity before it caused inflation.

The former director explained that, besides overloaded mints and supply chain disruptions, there are several other factors that could play an interesting role in shaping up gold’s price over the coming months and years. Moy believes that perhaps the biggest reason for the disconnection between price and demand lies in Wall Street’s shorting of the metals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

U.S. Mint Sold Out of Gold & Silver Coins

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: U.S. Mint can’t keep pace with demand again, Goldman chief calls silver a supercharged version of gold, and amateur prospector unearths a long-lost golden treasure from Medieval times.

U.S. Mint runs out of gold and silver coins

Just when we’d hoped the U.S. Mint might’ve worked its way through the pandemic-driven backlog of gold and silver coins, a new surge in demand worsened supply shortages. Last year, the U.S. Mint saw a 258% increase in purchase of gold coins and a 28% increase in silver coins, with heavy buying continuing into 2021. They probably didn’t plan for what happened next…

On the heels of Reddit’s wallstreetbets triumphant (if brief) GameStop frenzy, the day traders searched for a new target. Some have settled on silver. Amid claims that silver’s price should be closer to $1,000 than $25, day traders have flocked to both gold and silver. This made the ongoing supply crunch even worse.

While silver’s price is still trading around $27, the supply dynamics tell a different tale. The U.S. Mint sold 220,500 American Eagle gold bullion coins in January 2021, a staggering 290% year-on-year increase from last January. It’s not just unexpected demand that’s causing problems, though.

As noted by a retailer of precious metals coins, “There was going to be a backlog in the silver bullion supply chain that rendered silver eagles more scarce either way.” This is because the U.S. Mint is currently changing designs for its American Eagle gold and silver coins, expected to debut this summer. Once available, the U.S. Mint will ration distribution of gold, silver and platinum coins to dealers due to heavy demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

What Does A Silver Panic Look Like?

Has the #silversqueeze already fizzled out?

Hard to know at the moment. Prices are being hammered down this morning as the CME hiked COMEX margin requirements by 18%.

But according to this interview last night with Robert Mish, an independent precious metals dealer with nearly 60 years of experience in the industry, inventories have been overwhelmed by the wave of retail buyers making purchases over the past few days.

As a result, the price of physical silver is currently MUCH higher than paper silver.

If this buying pressure continues, he sees the price of paper silver being pushed up into the $35-50/oz range in the near term. But that’s only if the army of retail buyers keeps at it.

How will we know if the #silversqueeze army is successful in creating a true silver shortage?

Robert shares his war stories from previous panics in the ’60, ’70s and 1980 to give us a sense of what one will look like if it indeed happens:

 

“Everyone Is Afraid Ahead Of The Open” – Reddit-Raiders Spark Nationwide Physical Silver Shortage

“Everyone Is Afraid Ahead Of The Open” – Reddit-Raiders Spark Nationwide Physical Silver Shortage

Update (1100ET): For some background on just how unprecedented this weekend’s action in silver markets is, Tyler Wall, the CEO of SD Bullion writes the following (emphasis ours):

In the 24 hours proceeding Friday market close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10x the number of silver ounces that we normally would sell in an entire weekend leading to Sunday market open.

In a normal market, we normally can find at least one supplier/source willing to sell some ounces over the weekend if we exceed our long position (the number of ounces we predict we will sell over the weekend).

However, everyone we talk to is afraid of a gap up at Sunday night market open.

This is about ready to get really interesting as there was very little inventory left from suppliers/mints going into Friday close.

Our direct AP supplier informed us after close on Friday that the “US Mint will be on allocation for the remainder of Type 1” (Current Silver Eagle Design).

Our sales for the month of January exceeded any one month last year during the heart of the pandemic. It was an all-time record month in our company history. 

And, perhaps most importantly, as QTR tweets so succinctly, “this is a red pill moment for many, and it’s beautiful.”

*  *  *

Update (1030ET): It would appear the run on silver has begun. With the market closed, traders have rushed to secure some exposure to silver ahead of what WSB suggests could be “the world’s biggest short squeeze” and that has left bullion dealers

As we noted below, the premium for physical silver had soared late Friday and into Saturday (after the massive flows into SLV), but as Sunday rolled around, bullion dealers are now facing massive shortages of physical coins.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Something Big Just Happened in the U.S. Mint Gold Eagle Market

SOMETHING BIG JUST HAPPENED IN THE U.S. MINT GOLD EAGLE MARKET

Something BIG just happened in the U.S. Mint Gold Eagle Market this month.  Not only have Gold Eagle sales in the first three weeks of January surpassed last year’s total by a factor of three, but it’s also the highest figure since the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis.  While Silver Eagle sales have been the main focus of precious metals investors in the past year, Gold Eagle sales are now the new spotlight.

In my last update on Jan 14th, Gold Eagle Sales reached 141,000 oz, compared to 60,000 oz in the same month last year.

Thus, Gold Eagle sales on Jan 14th were already more than double the previous year, with still two weeks remaining in the month.  When the U.S. Mint updated their figures earlier today, they reported 62,500 oz sold in the past week.  Remarkably, the U.S. Mint sold more Gold Eagles in the last week than they did for the entire month last year.  The total Gold Eagle sales as of Jan 25th are 203,500 oz.

As we can see, the U.S. Mint has already sold more Gold Eagles this month than they did for the past three January’s combined.  Folks, this is a BIG DEAL.  Investors are concerned about the crazy Fed and Central bank money printing and stimulus that will continue to be pumped into the markets to prop up the U.S. and global economies.  The fundamentals for the precious metals will only get stronger.

However, we believe the metals and miners’ market prices will fluctuate due to HOW THE MARKET TRADES.  We provide updates on the technicals on the markets and metals to better understand the price movements.  Unfortunately, most precious metals analysts only forecast HIGHER PRICES.  This is a disservice to investors.  Nothing goes up in a straight line.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

StoneX: Gold to “Maintain High Prices” on Inflation, Slow Recovery, Low Yields

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: StoneX’s bullish outlook for gold in 2021, low interest rates to support gold for years to come, and a rare gold coin fetches $9.36 million at Texas auction.

StoneX: Expect gold to trend up for at least another six months

In their outlook for 2021, commodities and foreign exchange trader StoneX said that gold should continue trending upwards throughout the first half of 2021 on the back of numerous powerful drivers. These include economic risks and uncertainty as well as geopolitical turmoil, both domestic and international.

As the firm noted, last year saw precious metals emerge as the best-performing commodity group with a 27% rise year-on-year. Silver and gold supported each other’s prices as investors looked for a hedge amid conditions that seem to have very much poured over into the new year. In particular, StoneX sees additional stimulus by global central banks and the accompanying rise in inflation expectations as prominent vehicles for an extension of the bull run.

“The United States, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan have all been active with combined asset growth of over $7 trillion last year. With Congress’ approval of a $900 billion virus relief package in the United States (tied to the $1.3 trillion government funding program) there is more liquidity coming; Europe may follow suit, while Japan is looking to extend support for the corporate sector,” explained the firm.

More than inflation on its own, StoneX noted that its effect on real rates will continue driving money managers to utilize gold as a hedge, especially due to the threat of a stock market correction…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Silver Eagle Sales Explode During First Two Weeks In January

Silver Eagle Sales Explode During First Two Weeks In January

With the continued disintegration of the economic and financial system in 2021, investment demand for physical precious metals continues to be strong.  After the U.S. Mint posted a stunning 2.7 million Silver Eagles sold during the first week in January, they just posted another update, which already blew past last year’s figure by a wide margin.

Remarkably, just the U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales for the first two weeks in January accounts for 7% of the average monthly global silver mine supply.  That’s a lot of silver demand, considering the U.S. Silver Eagle sales are only a small segment of the total global silver market.  As I have mentioned in several articles, if we see another record year of physical and ETF silver demand this year like we had last year, the silver price will likely surpass the $35 level.

Now, according to the U.S. Mint’s most recent update, they sold almost 2 million more Silver Eagles this week to the Authorized Dealers.  Total Silver Eagle sales as of Jan 12th, are 4,646,000.  Already, for the first half of the month, the U.S. Mint sold 800,000 more Silver Eagles than during the entire month last year.

What’s interesting about Silver Eagles, even though the quality of .999 silver is less than its closest competitor, the Canadian Silver Maple coin at .9999 silver, the premium is higher.  Silver Eagle premiums can run $1+ more than a Canadian Silver Maple.  But, for whatever reason, Americans continue to buy a lot more Silver Eagles than Silver Maples.

With demand for silver investment reaching a record last year, Silver Eagle sales surpassed 30 million in 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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Bloomberg Analysts: “Gold the Asset to Beat in 2021”

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Gold to spearhead precious metals’ outperformance in 2021, why 2020 was a very good year for national mints, and birdwatcher unearths biggest-ever hoard of Celtic gold in Britain.

Bloomberg analysts: A $2,000 price tag will make gold the asset to beat in 2021

Among traditional assets, it would be difficult to beat gold for the title of top performer in 2020. Having hit a new all-time high of $2,070 in August, the metal has traded around its previous all-time high of $1,911 ever since. And though gold has appeared somewhat rangebound over the previous months, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone sees this as a stepping stone on the way towards an even better year.

According to McGlone, the $2,000 level that gold appears to have had difficulty recapturing is poised to become the metal’s next support, making it the asset to beat once again. “In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by how low — or negative — central banks will set base rates, along with rising debt-to-GDP and QE, we see the foundation solidifying under the price of gold. Resistance at about $2,000 an ounce in 2020 is set to transition to support in 2021,” he explained.

McGlone added rising volatility to the list of reasons why he can’t imagine gold’s price rise stopping, especially as the metal has held steadfast to its upwards-pointing 12-month moving average. In what has by now become a common scenario, McGlone expects gold to continue outperforming the record-setting S&P 500 along with sovereign bonds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

U.S. Mint Sells 2.7 Million Silver Eagles First Week Of 2021

U.S. Mint Sells 2.7 Million Silver Eagles First Week Of 2021

With the Fed and central banks pumping up the markets with a record amount of money printing, liquidity, and stimulus, investor demand for precious metals continues to be very strong.  In the first week of 2021, the U.S. Mint sold 2.7 million Silver Eagles.  The Mint also sold 45,000 oz of Gold Eagles.

While Silver Eagle sales are elevated in the first month of every year as the Authorized Purchases are stockpiling the new dated official coin, 2.7 million in the first week is a solid start.  With three more weeks in the month, sales of Silver Eagles may reach 4-5 million.  According to the U.S. Mint website, here is the breakdown in Silver and Gold Eagle Sales.

Unfortunately, the U.S. Mint didn’t show any Platinum or Palladium Eagle sales so far in January.  The U.S Mint didn’t sell any Palladium Eagles in 2020 and stopped producing Platinum Eagles in May.  With a tightness in the Palladium market, it’s no wonder the U.S. Mint hasn’t sold any of these coins for quite a while.

Demand for precious metals continues to be strong even though we see NOISE BLEED price levels for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin surpassed $40,000 today.  Both Tesla and Bitcoin are perfect examples of TULIP BUBBLES ON STEROIDS.  If investors want to know Tesla’s REAL FAIR VALUE, you need to check out the Silver Member post below.

Regardless, Silver Eagle sales in 2020 surpassed 30 million while Gold Eagles totaled 844,000 oz.  Amazingly, the U.S. Mint has sold over a half-billion Silver Eagles and 24 million Gold Eagles, which turns out to be a 23/1 Silver to Gold Eagle ratio over the 1986-2020 period.  However, the ratio last year was 36/1.  Thus, the U.S. Mint sold 36 times more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles in 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Poll Data: Silver Stackers and Solar Panels to Push Silver Higher

Silver will be the best performer in a bullish precious metals market

Much has been said about silver’s outperformance last year, and indeed, what should be an even better year ahead. After climbing to a seven-year high, forecasters have repeatedly stated that there’s plenty of room for silver to shoot up to $50 this year.

Kitco’s 2021 Outlook survey, which polled 1,015 investors, came back with sentiment that was very much in line with previous forecasts. Main Street investors and analysts are bullish on all precious metals, and expect silver to outperform its peers due to a combination of demand from the manufacturing sector as well as investor demand.

The rise in inflation expectations pushed gold to a new all-time high of $2,070 in August, and many participants see plenty of similar action for the yellow metal this year. However, a 56% majority of respondents listed silver as their top choice due to a push for green energy. Today’s solar panels each require 1/3 oz. of silver each, on average, so when interest in renewable energy booms, silver prices tend to follow suit. In fact, some studies suggest that silver supplies might constrain large-scale conversion to solar power, and when supplies tighten, prices rise.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saxo Bank: Overwhelming Demand for Silver Will Push 2021 Prices to $50

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Industrial demand to push silver prices to $50 in 2021, what Swiss gold data tells us about global gold demand, and why space mining will most likely remain confined to science fiction.

Saxo Bank: Overwhelming demand for silver will push prices to $50 next year

For the global markets, the tale of the tape this year has been one of uncertainty. One of the few things traders and investors have had no trouble betting on, however, is higher inflation and currency debasement. With trillions of dollars pumped into the economy and trillions more on the way, the question of fiat debasement has become one of when, rather than if.

Loose monetary policy is just one part of President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda, with a push towards green energy being another prominent point on his administration’s bottom line. The worldwide bid for green energy has already helped elevate silver in recent years, but now, Saxo Bank’s analysts believe the metal could shoot up to as high as $50 next year as the manufacturing sector recovers.

In their annual Outrageous Prediction report, the bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen made silver one of the top talking points. As Hansen explained, the bank is highly bullish on silver as demand from manufacturers is set to collide with investor interest. Having already doubled from its March lows of around $12 and outperformed gold in doing so, Hansen sees $50 silver in 2021 as a very realistic target.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The End Game

The End Game

Dear Investors:

Markets are cyclical. Today, stocks trade at record high valuations while commodities are historically undervalued in relation. The setup is in place for a macro pivot in the relative performance of these two asset classes. Comparable conditions were present with the 1972 Nifty Fifty and 2000 Dotcom bubbles as we show in the chart below.

As capital seeks to redeploy towards the highest growth and lowest valuation opportunities, we expect analytically minded investors will soon be rotating, if not stampeding, out of expensive deflation-era growth equities and fixed income securities and into cheap hard assets, creating a reversal in the 30-year declining trend of money velocity.

Today’s Modern Monetary Theory world with its double barreled fiscal and monetary stimulus is crashing head on with an accumulation of years of declining investment in the basic industries such as materials, energy, and agriculture. In our analysis, the “end game” for the Fed’s twin asset bubbles in stocks and bonds is inflation. We can already see it developing on the commodity front.

The scarcity of jobs and abundance of debt were factors preventing the economy from reaching its full growth potential even before Covid-19. Such have been the concepts underlying the output gap, the theoretical paradox that is thought to have held inflation in check over the course of the last business cycle. But based on comparable historic periods, the macro setup for inflation is more likely to be kicked off by an input gap, i.e., shortages in the primary resources needed for both a strong reserve currency and economic growth at the same time as policy makers pull out their biggest bazookas yet to boost aggregate demand. We expect a new wave of rising commodity prices, set up by past underinvestment in basic resources, to soon ripple through the global supply chain creating a headwind for real living standards. Welcome to the Great Reset.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Billionaire Investor Thomas Kaplan: “Gold Prices to Move ‘Way Past’ All-Time Highs”

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Billionaire investor sees gold blazing far past August’s high, gold is scheduled for a re-run in 2021, and hoard of medieval gold coins unearthed in an English back yard.

Gold’s new all-time high is just the start, says billionaire investor

The bull run in gold that saw the metal blaze to a new all-time high of $2,071 in August might have, at first glance, been a result of the pandemic. To be sure, the prevalent uncertainty and the multi-trillion dollar stimulus dump did their part in elevating prices above the previous high set in 2011. In an interview with Kitco, billionaire Thomas Kaplan explained why gold is really in a prolonged bull market that started in the early 2000s.

Kaplan, who did his doctoral dissertation on commodity supply and demand, said that gold is currently in the third wave of a decades-long uptrend. The first wave launched gold from $250 to $900, with the second wave pulling gold towards the $1,200-$1,900 range. And, as has often been pointed out by careful observers, gold was already on a bull run and had reached $1,800 before the pandemic.

The pandemic, however, has caused both investors and the average citizen to re-evaluate what money really is. Kaplan points out that a trillion dollars, which seemed nearly unfathomable just a few years back, now appears to have become “the new billion” in a staggering display of paper-money inflation. While not exactly good for the mining industry, Kaplan also highlighted the ongoing struggles when it comes to production, adding that new ore is not only increasingly difficult to find but also of a lesser quality.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Golden Road Remains Constant

The Golden Road Remains Constant

One must always be careful to distinguish between a truism, a claim or narrative which is so deeply embedded into the fabric of cultural understanding that it is taken to be an indisputable historical fact, and truth, a continuing, self-evident feature of reality which is available to be observed, reasoned about, and tested in the present. Truisms are the handmaidens of convention which, for economic participants, eventually come to replace objective observations. The result is that the ‘science’ of economics is transformed into a battleground for subjective beliefs, where the soldiers are not self-evident observations or testable predictions, but, rather, fashionable claims and politically-correct statements. In recent times, we have seen this to be the case for the Philips Curve, the theory of aggregate demand, and Keynes inversion of Say’s Law.[1] These, among many similar economic ideas, are modern truisms which, though falsified by present-day economic observation, persist as structures of belief which are dearly held by the economists and politicians who shape our collective future.

In this essay, I will draw the reader’s attention to a truism which endures as conventional wisdom today, even though it can be easily falsified by plain experience and objective examination. I speak of a belief which colours the whole of recent economic history: the judgment that the natural element Gold (Au) is now relegated to its present status as a store of value because payment technology has evolved beyond physical media. The whiggish story goes something like this: just as we humans evolve, so, too, does our civilization progress along the rising road of history; therefore, just as our maturing societies exhibit increased technical capabilities, so do our monetary instruments undoubtedly improve with the march of time…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Silver Eagle Sales Surge To Highest Level In Nine Months & SRSrocco Report Interview With Palisades Radio

Silver Eagle Sales Surge To Highest Level In Nine Months & SRSrocco Report Interview With Palisades Radio

Investor demand for precious metals remains strong as the U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales in November were the highest in nine months.  Not only were Silver Eagle sales the highest since March, when the pandemic caused investors to wipe-out inventories, but Gold Eagle sales also jumped by another 25,500 troy oz this past week.

According to the U.S. Mint data, Silver Eagles sales increased from 4,081,000 on Nov. 23rd to 4,805,000 on Nov 30th.  Total Silver Eagle sales for 2020 are now 29.3 million.

Silver Eagle sales in November at 4.8 million are the second highest in the year compared to the 5.5 million sold in March when the silver price fell to $12 during the stock market crash due to the pandemic lockdown.  It seems likely that Silver Eagle sales will reach and surpass 30 million this year.

UPDATE DEC 1st 2:30 PM MST:  It looks like the U.S. Mint sold another 276,000 Silver Eagles on the first day of December.  Total Silver Eagles for 2020 are now 29.6 million.  I believe we may even see 31 million sold for the year.

Furthermore, in November, Gold Eagle sales reached 88,000 oz for a total of 794,500 oz for the year versus 152,000 oz for full-year 2019.

As I have stated many times, I believe we are just beginning to see the MASSIVE SURGE of precious metals investment demand over the following years, especially in 2021.  There is so much CARNAGE taking place in the U.S. economy that hasn’t been factored into the stock markets or mainstream media.

Here is my interview with Tom Bodrovics at Palisades Radio, which we recorded last week on Friday:

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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