First, the US jobs report, as usual, came in far hotter than expected, which led credulous headline readers to conclude that the economy is booming and interest rates will have to stay higher for longer. If true, that’s bad for gold and silver, which don’t do well in a high-real-interest-rate environment.

But it’s not true. The US government is all about narrative management, especially in an election year. And the jobs report is where it runs its biggest scam.

Zero Hedge does a public service by dissecting each monthly jobs report to show, basically, the following: The number of full-time jobs is shrinking and all net jobs growth is in part-time work. And the number of jobs held by workers born in the US is shrinking while net new jobs are going to people who were born elsewhere. These are not signs of a healthy economy and definitely don’t point towards monetary tightening. Read the full analysis here: Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Years.

The other announcement was that China’s central bank, the biggest buyer of gold for the past few years, didn’t buy any in May.

Gold Price Sinks to 1-Month Low as China Stops Buying

(BullionVault) – Gold prices sank in all major currencies on Friday, dropping $80 an ounce in 6 hours on the news that the People’s Bank of China didn’t buy any bullion for its official reserves last month.

That snapped 18 months of continuous gold buying by Beijing as May set a new record-high gold price for the 3rd month running in US Dollar terms.

Now For The Good News

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Would Returning to the Gold Standard Resolve Our Most Pressing Monetary Problems?

May 28, 2024

Would Returning to the Gold Standard Resolve Our Most Pressing Monetary Problems?

We all know the problem with fiat currency: the temptation to print more currency is irresistible, but ultimately destructive.

Money in all its forms attracts quasi-religious beliefs and convictions. This makes it difficult to discuss with anything resembling objectivity. But given the centrality of money (and its sibling, greed) in human affairs, let’s press on and ask: would returning to the Gold Standard (i.e. gold as money / gold-backed currency) resolve our most pressing monetary problems?

The conviction that the answer is “yes” is widespread. In this view, President Nixon “closing the gold window,” in 1971, i.e. ending the convertibility of the US dollar to gold in international foreign exchange (FX) markets, is the Original Sin that doomed us to the inflationary Hell of fiat currency, i.e. currency unbacked by anything tangible such as gold or silver.

In this view, the only way to avoid the consequences of this Original Sin–the eventual reduction of fiat currency to zero value via hyper-inflation as the currency is “printed” without restraint–is to return to the gold standard.

So far, so good, but from here on in it gets tricky. We have a long history of precious metals being the only form of money in various economies, and an almost as long history of paper money augmenting precious-metal “real money” (in China, for example) and the issuance of copper coinage to grease small transactions.

Gold-backed currency rolls off the tongue rather easily, but what exactly does this mean? In theory, it means every unit of paper / digital currency in circulation can be converted on demand to a physical quantity of gold or silver at an exchange rate either set by the nation-state’s government or by the market.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Hyper-Inflation that Destroys a Currency a “Solution”?

May 27, 2024

Is Hyper-Inflation that Destroys a Currency a “Solution”?

This contrarian sees a strong consensus around the notion that hyper-inflation is the inevitable end-game of nation-states / central banks issuing fiat currencies, i.e. currencies that are not restrained by being pegged to tangible assets such as gold reserves. The temptation to issue (via “printing” or borrowing new currency into existence by selling sovereign bonds) more currency becomes irresistible to politicians and central bankers alike. as the means to mollify every constituency, from elites to the military to commoners dependent on state-funded bread and circuses.

This unrestrained creation of new money far in excess of the expansion of goods and services (i.e. the real economy) devalues the currency, as “all the new money chases too few goods and services.” Gresham’s law kicks in–bad money drives good money out of circulation–as precious metals, fine art, gemstones, etc. are hoarded and the depreciating currency is spent as fast as possible before its purchasing power declines even further.

The Cotillion Effect also kicks in: those closest to the spigot of new money get first dibs on converting the depreciating currency into tangible goods, leaving the non-elites to sweep up the “trickle-down” shreds left as the currency loses purchasing power daily.

The consensus holds that there is no way to stop this decay of purchasing power to near-zero, i.e. hyper-inflation, once it starts. As in a Greek tragedy, the fatal flaw of the protagonist–in this case, fiat currency–leads inevitably to its destruction.

In the real world, things having to do with money tend to occur because they benefit powerful interests. This leads us to ask of hyper-inflation: cui bono, to whose benefit? Exactly which powerful interests benefit when a currency’s purchasing power plummets to near-zero?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? Spotlight Gold and Silver

May 19, 2024

Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control? Spotlight Gold and Silver

The US stock markets are all at record highs, gold is at a record high, and silver is at the highest price since 2013. Welcome to the everyone wins market, no craps allowed.

Congratulations to silver bulls, copper bulls, gold bulls, S&P 500 bulls, Nasdaq bulls, Dow bulls, and US housing bulls?

Did I leave anything out?

Record High on Gold

Gold’s Strongest Move In a Year Was When the Dollar Was Rising

Gold and the US dollar are not as inversely correlated as widely believed. Sometimes gold and the dollar move strongly in the same direction. Let’s discuss why.

Gold and US Dollar charts courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish.

On April 11, 2024, I noted Gold’s Strongest Move In a Year Was When the Dollar Was Rising

Gold’s strongest move in over a year started in March with the US dollar index generally moving higher.

Gold vs the US Dollar

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.Com, annotations by Mish

Gold vs the US Dollar Synopsis

Contrary to widespread myth, gold is not a good US dollar hedge.

With the US dollar Index at 90, gold has been at $380, $1000, $1130, and $1900.

And there are times when gold and the dollar rise together.

When Does Gold Do Best?

In general, gold is a poor inflation hedge. The best example is gold fell from$850 to $250 per ounce with inflation every step of the way.

In the mid-to-late 1990s, everyone thought “The Maestro”, Alan Greenspan, had everything under control. In such periods, gold is among the worst assets to hold.

Gold is best viewed not as a hedge against inflation but a hedge against credit stress, stagflation, and faith in central banks.

Is Everything Under Control?

Hello Jerome Powell. Sorry for asking, but we need to know: Is everything under control?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why The Gold Rush Is Just Beginning, In Six Charts

May 18, 2024

Why The Gold Rush Is Just Beginning, In Six Charts

A lot of embarrassed investment advisors out there…

Gold blew through $2400/oz this morning:

And the world’s central banks continue to add gold to their monetary reserves. Note that the real action coincided with the outbreak of the Ukraine war, when the US started slapping sanctions on everyone in sight. De-dollarization is a trend with legs.

A case can be made that China alone is driving the current gold bull market. Note how the metal’s price tracks the increase in People’s Bank of China gold reserves.

Silver just pierced its 5-year resistance. If it holds above $30/oz, $35 becomes the next big test.

One of the problems with gold miner stocks has been the fact that mining costs are rising, which offsets some of the benefits of a higher gold price. But that’s changing, as gold rises faster than mining costs, widening miners’ margins and lighting a fire under their stocks. See Finally, Some Good-Looking Gold/Silver Miner Charts.

The Next Price Driver

Is the gold rush played out? Well, 98% of mainstream investment advisors currently have less than 5% of their clients’ money in precious metals. Imagine all the tense upcoming meetings in which clients demand to know why they don’t own the year’s best-performing assets — and advisors apologize and promise to add gold to their mix. Just 1% of global investible capital flowing into gold would send it to the moon.

Why Gold Is Flowing From West To East

May 17, 2024

Why Gold Is Flowing From West To East

Yesterday silver hit a four-week high and gold continues to hold onto recent gains. Today’s labour market data isn’t sparking significant movement in the gold market. However, it is facing some technical selling pressure as it tests resistance levels slightly below $2,400 per ounce. Yesterday’s US CPI report presented a scenario that is bullish for precious metals investors. With CPI data coming in lower than expected policy doves will now be pushing for the FOMC to cut rates sooner, rather than later.

For gold and silver investors in the West, the uncertainty regarding the FOMC’s next moves is dampening prices somewhat, but they do remain in a solid uptrend. We continue to see a divergence between gold demand drivers between the East and West. In the West central bank decisions and economic data remain at the forefront of buyers’ minds, but in the East this is now a secondary factor. Instead central banks, institutions and consumer East of Germany are focused on gold accumulation, even buying into the price surge last month.

The release of the World Gold Council’s Q1 demand trends report has confirmed this. Data for the first quarter of this year showed the PBoC’s gold purchases continued for a 17th month in a row, whilst gold bar and coin demand was also driven by China.

So where does this leave the West? In today’s video Jan Skoyles wonders if it leaves them with ‘no plan B’. Do you agree? We’ve been chatting to a few clients recently and it has been interesting to hear thoughts on future gold market trends and what is driving people to increase their gold allocation. Let us know yours, either by replying to this email or in the comments below the video.

Why is China buying up so much gold and what does it mean for the gold price? We take a look in this week’s latest video.

What the Rising Gold Price Signals

April 24, 2024

What the Rising Gold Price Signals

The recent run-up in the gold price has not garnered the attention among the mainstream financial media outlets as it should. Gold has, in part, been overshadowed by the rise in the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Naturally, the financial press, which is really an arm of the government and its central bank, wants to ignore, as much as possible, references to gold as protection against the continuing increase in the price level which itself has been deliberately understated by monetary officials. The media and government understand that precious metals are the ultimate security against runaway inflation and economic collapse.

While the increase in the gold price has reached nominal highs, it and the price of silver have not passed their all-time 1980 highs in real terms. Adjusted for inflation, gold would have to rise to about $3590 an ounce while silver would have to surpass $50 an ounce. Both are poised to exceed these watermarks in the not-too-distant future.

Precious metals will continue to escalate unless the Federal Reserve radically changes its interest rate policy to combat inflation as former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker once did. Volcker raised interest rates to double-digit levels which caused gold prices to fall. While Volcker could get away with such actions (because, at the time, the U.S. was still a creditor nation), current Chair Jerome Powell cannot because of the enormity of public and private debt. Double-digit interest rates would collapse the economy and plunge millions of Americans into bankruptcy.

The rising price of gold is anticipating some of the promised policy actions of the Fed. Since the end of last year, the central bank has indicated that it would be cutting interest rates. In addition, Powell is considering ending the Fed’s “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) program. Both are highly inflationary.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Staggering Quantities of Valuable Metals Are Winding Up in the Garbage Bin

April 23, 2024

Staggering Quantities of Valuable Metals Are Winding Up in the Garbage Bin

Recycling more of the copper, aluminum, and other minerals in our old electronics could reduce the need for mining.

To build all of the solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, and other technologies necessary to fight climate change, we’re going to need a lot more metals. Mining those metals from the Earth creates damage and pollution that threaten ecosystems and communities. But there’s another potential source of the copper, nickel, aluminum, and rare-earth minerals needed to stabilize the climate: the mountain of electronic waste humanity discards each year.

Exactly how much of each clean energy metal is there in the laptops, printers, and smart fridges the world discards? Until recently, no one really knew. Data on more obscure metals like neodymium and palladium, which play small but critical roles in established and emerging green energy technologies, has been especially hard to come by.

Now, the United Nations has taken a first step toward filling in these data gaps with the latest installment of its periodic report on e-waste around the world. Released last month, the new Global E-Waste Monitor shows the staggering scale of the e-waste crisis, which reached a new record in 2022 when the world threw out 62 million metric tons of electronics. And for the first time, the report includes a detailed breakdown of the metals present in our electronic garbage, and how often they are being recycled.

“There is very little reporting on the recovery of metals [from e-waste] globally,” lead report author Kees Baldé told Grist. “We felt it was our duty to get more facts on the table.”

One of those facts is that some staggering quantities of energy transition metals are winding up in the garbage bin.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

AI, Gold and Nuclear War

April 17, 2024

AI, Gold and Nuclear War

So-called artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm. Meanwhile, gold has shot up like a rocket over the past couple of months.

In mid-February, gold was trading at $1,990. Two months later, gold is trading above $2,400 — a $410 gain in just two months.

So here’s a question:

Is there a connection between AI and gold? It seems like an odd question. But as it turns out, the answer is yes. And surprisingly, there has been for decades. It involves the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

In the early 1980s, the KGB was deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear first strike by the United States. At the time, Yuri Andropov was head of the KGB.

Andropov’s fear of a nuclear first strike by the U.S. was based in part on the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan and Reagan’s plan to install Pershing II intermediate-range missiles in Europe.

Those missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads and could strike the Soviet Union within minutes of being launched. This put Soviet nuclear forces on a hair-trigger alert. They adopted a “launch on warning” posture.

This means that as soon as credible evidence of a planned first strike was discovered, the Soviet Union would launch its own first strike to avoid destruction of its forces.

The irony was that the U.S. had no actual plans to launch a first strike, but the Soviet Union didn’t know that. Reagan’s speeches about the “evil empire” did nothing to calm Soviet concerns.

AI and Nuclear Readiness

In response, the Soviets developed a primitive (by today’s standards) AI system called VRYAN. That’s a Russian acronym for: sudden nuclear missile attack.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The US Is Living on Borrowed Time

February 1, 2024

The US Is Living on Borrowed Time

In late December, I published a final report on the themes of 2023 while looking ahead at their implications for the year to come.

I repeated my claim that debt markets and debt levels made the future of Fed policies, currency moves, rate markets and gold’s endgame fairly clear to see.

Of course, as facts change, opinions change as well.

But the facts are only worsening, which means my opinions in late 2023 are only growing stronger as we conclude the first month of 2024.

Then as now, the debt-soaked US is tilting ever more toward policies which will weaken its currency, wound its middleclass and reward its false idols (and false markets) with even greater desperation.

In particular, some recent facts below are emerging which further support my otherwise sad conviction that the American economy (not to be confused with its Fed-supported stock exchanges) is literally living on borrowed time.

The Latest Bits of Crazy from the CBO

Almost a year ago to date, I was shaking my head and rubbing my eyes as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced a staggering $422B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2023.

Now that’s a lot of borrowing in a short amount of time…

For some strange reason, this bothered me in early 2023, as I was still under this odd impression that debt, and hence deficits, actually mattered.

Fast forward to January 2024, and that same CBO has just announced a $509B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2024.

Folks, that adds up to annual deficit run rate of $2.2T.

Please: Re-read that last line again.

Do the Math: DC is Getting Even Dumber

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Never Ending War on Cash

January 22, 2024

Never Ending War on Cash

In the last few decades, there has been a global shift towards a “cashless world,” a trend that continues to shape financial autonomy. Physical currency is becoming increasingly rare as the majority of the world’s money supply exists in electronic form. Governments and financial institutions are actively promoting a cashless society, raising concerns about individual financial freedom.

The Federal Reserve’s last annual update on physical currency in circulation reported about 2.2 trillion dollars in physical cash supply. This includes physical coins (dimes, quarters, dollars) and green Federal Reserve notes. Nevertheless, there has been a rapid shift towards electronic funds. In the current era, the total global money supply is predominantly composed of electronic funds, with physical currency representing a diminishing percentage.

The concept of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the last year has gained substantial prominence globally. IMF Director Kistalina Georgieva noted in her speech last year that CBDCs have already been introduced in The Bahamas, Jamaica, and Nigeria, with over 100 additional countries (including the United States) currently in the exploratory phase.

The push towards a cashless society is often justified on grounds of enhanced security, with claims that electronic transactions deter terrorism, money laundering, and counterfeiting. However, upon closer examination, it becomes apparent that the primary objective is an attempt to ‘bar the doors’ and keep assets within the US Financial System. Reduced reliance on physical cash facilitates increased monitoring and taxation of financial transactions, aligning with the government’s and central planners’ interests.

Interestingly, even with the diminishing purchasing power of the US dollar, the face value of Federal Reserve notes has also been decreasing. Today, the highest denomination note produced by the Federal Reserve is the $100 note. The elimination of higher denominations, such as $500, $1,000, $5,000, and $10,000 notes, began in 1969. Discussions continue, with some advocating for the complete discontinuation of cash.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Central Banks Will Keep Gobbling Gold in 2024

January 19, 2024

Central Banks Will Keep Gobbling Gold in 2024

The first half of 2023 was a record-breaking moment for central bank gold buying, led by none other than China and Russia. Organizations like the World Gold Council reported a staggering increase compared to 2022:

“On a year-to-date basis, central banks have bought an astonishing net 800t, 14% higher than the same period last year.”

Whether or not The January Effect will apply to the gold price as we finish the first month of 2024, there are plenty of indicators that the central bank buying spree will continue for at least the first half of the new year. Accelerating de-dollarization is just one factor, as powerhouses like China and Russia continue strategically moving further and further from the grips of USD hegemony.

Of course, actions by the Biden administration to isolate Russia with sanctions in the wake of the Ukraine conflict only provide further impetus for the Russians to continue divesting in any way they can from the US dollar. Combined with a volatile ruble and a wave of new American spending to feed its proxy wars in Ukraine and Israel, it only makes sense that Russia’s gold coffers will continue to grow.

You can also bet on China and Russia buying significantly more gold than what gets reported publicly, so the real numbers are always higher than they seem. As Jim Richards has pointed out many times, such as in this tweet from Q1 last year, countries like Russia and China hold gold acquired through off-the-books buying programs that far exceed what they officially claim:

“Central Bank of Russia reported a gain of 30 metric tonnes in its gold reserves. That’s after a year of flatlining more likely due to non-reporting than non-acquisition. Nice to see Russia back in the game.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Hope Dies, Gold Rises

December 5, 2023

Hope Dies, Gold Rises

The primary stages of grief include: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally, acceptance.

When it comes to grieving over the slow demise of the American economy, sovereign IOU/USD and the absolute failure of our “re-election-only-focused” policy makers, these stages of grief are easy to see yet easier to ignore.

But false hope won’t help us.

Denying a Recession

With the vast majority of sectors that make up the U.S. economy evidencing three months of negative GDP growth while a laundry list of leading homebuilder indicators (housing starts and prospective buyers) drops into recessionary red, I keep wondering when the recession debate will finally end.

Walmart is worrying, Jamie Dimon is worrying, commercial real estate delinquencies are rising and IPO markets are all but dead on arrival.

But that’s just the latest hard data.

One can cite everything from the Conference Board of Leading Indicators, negative M2 growth, yield curve movements and a drying repo market to make it empirically clear that the US is not heading for recession but has already been in one for nearly a year.

In fact, if we were to define a Depression by growth rates of inflation-adjusted GDP per capita, then factually speaking, we have also been in a quantifiable depression for the last 16 years.

Such data, of course, is depressing, but are we all still hoping for kinder facts or a political and monetary Santa Claus to cure our denial?

I for one favor preparation over denial.

Then Comes the Anger

Citizens storming the Capital, or grabbing guitars and singing “I’m taxed to no end and my dollar aint $#!T” are just the first signs of the anger stage.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Confetti Dollar End of Ponzi Scheme – Bill Holter

November 30, 2023

Confetti Dollar End of Ponzi Scheme – Bill Holter

Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter says the recent underreported announcement by the UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti in Switzerland that his bank might need a “rescue” is yet another sign on the short road to the end of the global Ponzi scheme backed by the US dollar reserve currency. Holter points out, “You’ve got a sick bank (Credit Suisse) that is being bailed out by another bank (UBS) that may turn out to be sick. My question is who is going to bail out these central banks? You have got the Fed with a $9 trillion balance sheet. The last time, the Fed went from $900 billion to $9 trillion. Can the Fed now go from $9 trillion to $90 trillion? Who is going to bail out the Fed? Who is going to bail out the US Treasury? Who is going to bail out the Bank of England, the ECB or the Bank of Japan? These central banks have completely blown up their balance sheet and have no ability to save anything. My question is who is going to save them?”

Can’t they cut interest rates again like they did in 2009? Holter says, “If they cut interest rates from here, you would see the dollar absolutely crash. The only reason the dollar has not crashed is interest rates have basically gone from 0% to 5%. They have done that in a year and a half which is the fastest increase in interest rates in all of history.”

So, rate cuts will devalue the dollar. Can you pay trillions of dollars borrowed in Treasury Bond back in confetti dollars? Holter says, “Yes, you absolutely can pay back your debt in confetti. It’s been done many, many times before as currencies get lost…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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