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Disoreder Will Come–As Confucious Warned

DISORDER WILL COME – AS CONFUCIUS WARNED

 

When bubbles burst, we will discover how very few superior men there actually are – as defined by Confucius:

“The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved.” – Confucius

Superior man can exist at many different levels in society, not necessarily linked to money or investments. There will be many people without money who are prepared at an intellectual or psychological level. These people are probably the happiest since sadly many wealthy people worry about their money all the time rather than enjoy it.

In this piece I am talking primarily about preparedness in relation to one’s wealth.

PS Important Postscript at the end of the article.

FOCUS ON WEALTH PRESERVATION

The investors we meet in our business are people who are risk averse and therefore very much focus on wealth preservation. These investors buy physical gold because they are concerned about the excessive risks in markets. They want to protect and insure their wealth against unprecedented financial and currency risk. Like ourselves, these investors consider physical precious metals, stored outside a fragile banking system, as the ultimate form of wealth preservation.

But investment gold represents less than 0.5% of world financial assets. This means that a minuscule percentage of investors insure their wealth in gold. This is clearly surprising bearing in mind that over 5,000 years gold is the only money that has survived.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Egon von Greyerz, gold switzerland, inflation, risk, gold, precious metals, wealth, financial bubble, bubble, currency, banking system

Gold Will Emerge Stronger Than Ever From the Post-Pandemic Environment: CPM Group

We’ve often heard that gold is a primary beneficiary of crises unlike any other, when investors and the average person alike wondered what would happen tomorrow. Now, when at least some of the fear has diminished, CPM Group took a look at how the crisis aggravated existing problems that have been turning people to gold for decades.

In their Gold Yearbook, CPM highlighted sovereign and private debt, government deficits and loose monetary policies as the drivers that will position gold exceptionally well over the medium and long-term. The scramble for money to keep their economies afloat by both the U.S. and governments around the world have worsened these issues in monumental fashion. Growth was already contracting prior to the crisis, and CPM believes low growth could be the biggest consequence of the official sector’s liquidity rush.

With many countries appearing to adopt even more protectionist policies, CPM points to the long-standing trade conflict between the U.S. and China as something to look out for. The group also noted that many economies are projected to post a much slower recovery than that of the U.S. Regarding gold price, CPM doesn’t expect any major rushes such as the one seen last year. Instead, its analysts think investors will become more attracted to the metal over a longer period of time, slowly buying gold whenever a dip occurs. (More in line with the behavior expected of buy-and-hold investors rather than speculators’ constant turnover.)

Their sentiment agrees with many reports asserting that money managers are reassessing the traditional portfolio model and coming to view gold as a necessary inclusion…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

birch gold group, gold, precious metals, pandemic, money, wealth, cpm,

When “Unallocated” Becomes Unavailable

For the past ten years, we’ve railed against the Bullion Bank fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme. The solution has always been the removal of physical metal from the hands of the Banks and the Mints. Are we finally making some progress?

Before we begin, it is crucial that you understand this basic point: The globally recognized prices of gold and silver are not determined through the exchange of actual physical metal. Price is instead determined by the exchange of derivative contracts. Thus, the supply and demand of physical metal has very little day-to-day bearing on the derivative price. Instead, it is the supply and demand of the derivative itself that determines price.

About four years ago, I wrote the article linked below with the purpose of explaining, in as simple terms as possible, how and why this digital derivative pricing scheme benefits The Bullion Banks that have monopolistic control of these “markets”. If you’ve never read this post, please do so now:

The key pillars in maintaining this fraudulent pricing scheme are the market activities in New York and London. The CME-owned COMEX and the LBMA collective work together to manage price and the flow of physical metal that is needed to legitimize it. To understand this hand-in-glove approach, consider that Michael Nowak—the recently indicted former head of global precious metals trading for JPMorgan—also sat on the board of directors of the LBMA:

For precious metal investors everywhere, it is vital that we one day force this pricing scheme to collapse. Since The Scheme is built upon leverage and hypothecation, the only way we can win this fight is if we can force a deleverage of the fractional reserve system…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Interesting COMEX Trend: Silver Short Squeeze Appears to Be on Track

Interesting COMEX Trend: Silver Short Squeeze Appears to Be on Track

COMEX is the primary futures and options market for trading metals such as gold and silver. There have been some interesting trends for silver in the COMEX in recent months. More investors are taking delivery of silver. In other words, the short squeeze may still be on track – albeit in slow motion – and this could impact the silver price moving forward.

You will recall that last month, the Reddit investors turned the spotlight onto silver. The hope was to create a short squeeze in the market by buying up physical silver. The price popped temporarily, but it appeared at the time the silver market was just too big for the Reddit Raiders to squeeze. The price dropped back and the spotlight dimmed. But looking at some trends in the COMEX indicates the squeeze might still be on.

A futures contract is a promise to deliver a certain amount of gold or silver at a certain price at a certain time. Speculators play this market, hoping to profit from a price swing. Say you buy a $26 per ounce silver contract and the price of silver rises to $28. The investor can sell the contract and make a few dollars per ounce. Generally, the trades are made on paper. They are made on the promise of that metal and on the knowledge that it exists, but traders rarely take delivery of the metal itself. About 1% of COMEX trades go to delivery.

The following analysis was submitted to SchiffGold and is published for your consideration. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

The COMEX has shown a major divergence in the silver market in recent months. For context, consider this graph. (Open interest is the total number of outstanding options or futures that have not been settled for an asset.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Forbes: Excessive Monetary Stimulus Leaves Gold “Greatly Undervalued”

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: How the expansion of money supply is boosting gold’s allure, an overview of last year’s precious metals imports to the U.S., and U.S. Mint releases final batch of American Gold Eagle coins with current design.

Historic monetary stimulus is casting a bright light on tangible assets

The multi-trillion dollar stimulus appears to have achieved the desired effect, at least in the short term. The influx of freshly-printed, free floating money encouraged risk-on sentiment, increased bond yields and caused money managers to once again turn away from gold.

Yet, as Forbes columnist Frank Holmes points out, the pressures coming down on gold right now could turn out to be its most powerful tailwind further down the line.

According to the Forbes article, M1 (the amount of readily-available or liquid money in circulation) should be approached the same as any other asset class. This is usually the case; many investors treat cash as a part of their portfolios. Therefore, the law of supply and demand should also be applied to cash. In light of the recent monetary expansion, cash quickly starts to look overabundant in the economy.

Holmes notes that M1 has expanded by 355% year-on-year, marking the highest annual rate increase on record by a wide margin. Unsurprisingly, inflation expectations for the next five years based on the Treasury breakeven rate have risen to their highest level since 2011, when gold posted its previous all-time high. Today’s gold price may be some ways off from August’s peak of $2,070, but there are plenty of analysts calling for a retrace this year, and Holmes thinks inflation could kickstart the next round of gold price gains.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

U.S. Mint Rations Bullion Coins – Why Aren’t Prices Rising, Too?

Why bullion prices don’t seem to be in line with demand

Despite record demand for gold and silver bullion coins month after month, the prices of both metals continue to linger within limited ranges. Gold even pulled back to just above $1,800 during Friday’s trading session. So what’s going on? Why isn’t the clearly-demonstrated demand driving prices higher?

U.S. Mint director Ed Moy, whose tenure stretched from 2006 to 2011, recognizes today’s situation and draws many parallels to the start of 2008:

The last time demand was this high was during the [2008-2009] financial crisis. People were panicking and buying into gold, and prices were shooting up. Then the government started injecting both fiscal and monetary stimulus, and you saw gold correct down maybe 20-30%. And then, over the next three years, gold began to climb until it set a new record of $1,925 in 2011. Afterward, gold didn’t decline until it became clear that the economic recovery was going to be slow, which eliminated the uncertainty. The Fed also had the time to mop up all the excess liquidity before it caused inflation.

The former director explained that, besides overloaded mints and supply chain disruptions, there are several other factors that could play an interesting role in shaping up gold’s price over the coming months and years. Moy believes that perhaps the biggest reason for the disconnection between price and demand lies in Wall Street’s shorting of the metals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

U.S. Mint Sold Out of Gold & Silver Coins

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: U.S. Mint can’t keep pace with demand again, Goldman chief calls silver a supercharged version of gold, and amateur prospector unearths a long-lost golden treasure from Medieval times.

U.S. Mint runs out of gold and silver coins

Just when we’d hoped the U.S. Mint might’ve worked its way through the pandemic-driven backlog of gold and silver coins, a new surge in demand worsened supply shortages. Last year, the U.S. Mint saw a 258% increase in purchase of gold coins and a 28% increase in silver coins, with heavy buying continuing into 2021. They probably didn’t plan for what happened next…

On the heels of Reddit’s wallstreetbets triumphant (if brief) GameStop frenzy, the day traders searched for a new target. Some have settled on silver. Amid claims that silver’s price should be closer to $1,000 than $25, day traders have flocked to both gold and silver. This made the ongoing supply crunch even worse.

While silver’s price is still trading around $27, the supply dynamics tell a different tale. The U.S. Mint sold 220,500 American Eagle gold bullion coins in January 2021, a staggering 290% year-on-year increase from last January. It’s not just unexpected demand that’s causing problems, though.

As noted by a retailer of precious metals coins, “There was going to be a backlog in the silver bullion supply chain that rendered silver eagles more scarce either way.” This is because the U.S. Mint is currently changing designs for its American Eagle gold and silver coins, expected to debut this summer. Once available, the U.S. Mint will ration distribution of gold, silver and platinum coins to dealers due to heavy demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

What Does A Silver Panic Look Like?

Has the #silversqueeze already fizzled out?

Hard to know at the moment. Prices are being hammered down this morning as the CME hiked COMEX margin requirements by 18%.

But according to this interview last night with Robert Mish, an independent precious metals dealer with nearly 60 years of experience in the industry, inventories have been overwhelmed by the wave of retail buyers making purchases over the past few days.

As a result, the price of physical silver is currently MUCH higher than paper silver.

If this buying pressure continues, he sees the price of paper silver being pushed up into the $35-50/oz range in the near term. But that’s only if the army of retail buyers keeps at it.

How will we know if the #silversqueeze army is successful in creating a true silver shortage?

Robert shares his war stories from previous panics in the ’60, ’70s and 1980 to give us a sense of what one will look like if it indeed happens:

 

“Everyone Is Afraid Ahead Of The Open” – Reddit-Raiders Spark Nationwide Physical Silver Shortage

“Everyone Is Afraid Ahead Of The Open” – Reddit-Raiders Spark Nationwide Physical Silver Shortage

Update (1100ET): For some background on just how unprecedented this weekend’s action in silver markets is, Tyler Wall, the CEO of SD Bullion writes the following (emphasis ours):

In the 24 hours proceeding Friday market close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10x the number of silver ounces that we normally would sell in an entire weekend leading to Sunday market open.

In a normal market, we normally can find at least one supplier/source willing to sell some ounces over the weekend if we exceed our long position (the number of ounces we predict we will sell over the weekend).

However, everyone we talk to is afraid of a gap up at Sunday night market open.

This is about ready to get really interesting as there was very little inventory left from suppliers/mints going into Friday close.

Our direct AP supplier informed us after close on Friday that the “US Mint will be on allocation for the remainder of Type 1” (Current Silver Eagle Design).

Our sales for the month of January exceeded any one month last year during the heart of the pandemic. It was an all-time record month in our company history. 

And, perhaps most importantly, as QTR tweets so succinctly, “this is a red pill moment for many, and it’s beautiful.”

*  *  *

Update (1030ET): It would appear the run on silver has begun. With the market closed, traders have rushed to secure some exposure to silver ahead of what WSB suggests could be “the world’s biggest short squeeze” and that has left bullion dealers

As we noted below, the premium for physical silver had soared late Friday and into Saturday (after the massive flows into SLV), but as Sunday rolled around, bullion dealers are now facing massive shortages of physical coins.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Something Big Just Happened in the U.S. Mint Gold Eagle Market

SOMETHING BIG JUST HAPPENED IN THE U.S. MINT GOLD EAGLE MARKET

Something BIG just happened in the U.S. Mint Gold Eagle Market this month.  Not only have Gold Eagle sales in the first three weeks of January surpassed last year’s total by a factor of three, but it’s also the highest figure since the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis.  While Silver Eagle sales have been the main focus of precious metals investors in the past year, Gold Eagle sales are now the new spotlight.

In my last update on Jan 14th, Gold Eagle Sales reached 141,000 oz, compared to 60,000 oz in the same month last year.

Thus, Gold Eagle sales on Jan 14th were already more than double the previous year, with still two weeks remaining in the month.  When the U.S. Mint updated their figures earlier today, they reported 62,500 oz sold in the past week.  Remarkably, the U.S. Mint sold more Gold Eagles in the last week than they did for the entire month last year.  The total Gold Eagle sales as of Jan 25th are 203,500 oz.

As we can see, the U.S. Mint has already sold more Gold Eagles this month than they did for the past three January’s combined.  Folks, this is a BIG DEAL.  Investors are concerned about the crazy Fed and Central bank money printing and stimulus that will continue to be pumped into the markets to prop up the U.S. and global economies.  The fundamentals for the precious metals will only get stronger.

However, we believe the metals and miners’ market prices will fluctuate due to HOW THE MARKET TRADES.  We provide updates on the technicals on the markets and metals to better understand the price movements.  Unfortunately, most precious metals analysts only forecast HIGHER PRICES.  This is a disservice to investors.  Nothing goes up in a straight line.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

StoneX: Gold to “Maintain High Prices” on Inflation, Slow Recovery, Low Yields

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: StoneX’s bullish outlook for gold in 2021, low interest rates to support gold for years to come, and a rare gold coin fetches $9.36 million at Texas auction.

StoneX: Expect gold to trend up for at least another six months

In their outlook for 2021, commodities and foreign exchange trader StoneX said that gold should continue trending upwards throughout the first half of 2021 on the back of numerous powerful drivers. These include economic risks and uncertainty as well as geopolitical turmoil, both domestic and international.

As the firm noted, last year saw precious metals emerge as the best-performing commodity group with a 27% rise year-on-year. Silver and gold supported each other’s prices as investors looked for a hedge amid conditions that seem to have very much poured over into the new year. In particular, StoneX sees additional stimulus by global central banks and the accompanying rise in inflation expectations as prominent vehicles for an extension of the bull run.

“The United States, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan have all been active with combined asset growth of over $7 trillion last year. With Congress’ approval of a $900 billion virus relief package in the United States (tied to the $1.3 trillion government funding program) there is more liquidity coming; Europe may follow suit, while Japan is looking to extend support for the corporate sector,” explained the firm.

More than inflation on its own, StoneX noted that its effect on real rates will continue driving money managers to utilize gold as a hedge, especially due to the threat of a stock market correction…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Silver Eagle Sales Explode During First Two Weeks In January

Silver Eagle Sales Explode During First Two Weeks In January

With the continued disintegration of the economic and financial system in 2021, investment demand for physical precious metals continues to be strong.  After the U.S. Mint posted a stunning 2.7 million Silver Eagles sold during the first week in January, they just posted another update, which already blew past last year’s figure by a wide margin.

Remarkably, just the U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales for the first two weeks in January accounts for 7% of the average monthly global silver mine supply.  That’s a lot of silver demand, considering the U.S. Silver Eagle sales are only a small segment of the total global silver market.  As I have mentioned in several articles, if we see another record year of physical and ETF silver demand this year like we had last year, the silver price will likely surpass the $35 level.

Now, according to the U.S. Mint’s most recent update, they sold almost 2 million more Silver Eagles this week to the Authorized Dealers.  Total Silver Eagle sales as of Jan 12th, are 4,646,000.  Already, for the first half of the month, the U.S. Mint sold 800,000 more Silver Eagles than during the entire month last year.

What’s interesting about Silver Eagles, even though the quality of .999 silver is less than its closest competitor, the Canadian Silver Maple coin at .9999 silver, the premium is higher.  Silver Eagle premiums can run $1+ more than a Canadian Silver Maple.  But, for whatever reason, Americans continue to buy a lot more Silver Eagles than Silver Maples.

With demand for silver investment reaching a record last year, Silver Eagle sales surpassed 30 million in 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

srsrocco report, us silver eagles, silver, silver coins, precious metals,

Bloomberg Analysts: “Gold the Asset to Beat in 2021”

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Gold to spearhead precious metals’ outperformance in 2021, why 2020 was a very good year for national mints, and birdwatcher unearths biggest-ever hoard of Celtic gold in Britain.

Bloomberg analysts: A $2,000 price tag will make gold the asset to beat in 2021

Among traditional assets, it would be difficult to beat gold for the title of top performer in 2020. Having hit a new all-time high of $2,070 in August, the metal has traded around its previous all-time high of $1,911 ever since. And though gold has appeared somewhat rangebound over the previous months, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone sees this as a stepping stone on the way towards an even better year.

According to McGlone, the $2,000 level that gold appears to have had difficulty recapturing is poised to become the metal’s next support, making it the asset to beat once again. “In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by how low — or negative — central banks will set base rates, along with rising debt-to-GDP and QE, we see the foundation solidifying under the price of gold. Resistance at about $2,000 an ounce in 2020 is set to transition to support in 2021,” he explained.

McGlone added rising volatility to the list of reasons why he can’t imagine gold’s price rise stopping, especially as the metal has held steadfast to its upwards-pointing 12-month moving average. In what has by now become a common scenario, McGlone expects gold to continue outperforming the record-setting S&P 500 along with sovereign bonds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

U.S. Mint Sells 2.7 Million Silver Eagles First Week Of 2021

U.S. Mint Sells 2.7 Million Silver Eagles First Week Of 2021

With the Fed and central banks pumping up the markets with a record amount of money printing, liquidity, and stimulus, investor demand for precious metals continues to be very strong.  In the first week of 2021, the U.S. Mint sold 2.7 million Silver Eagles.  The Mint also sold 45,000 oz of Gold Eagles.

While Silver Eagle sales are elevated in the first month of every year as the Authorized Purchases are stockpiling the new dated official coin, 2.7 million in the first week is a solid start.  With three more weeks in the month, sales of Silver Eagles may reach 4-5 million.  According to the U.S. Mint website, here is the breakdown in Silver and Gold Eagle Sales.

Unfortunately, the U.S. Mint didn’t show any Platinum or Palladium Eagle sales so far in January.  The U.S Mint didn’t sell any Palladium Eagles in 2020 and stopped producing Platinum Eagles in May.  With a tightness in the Palladium market, it’s no wonder the U.S. Mint hasn’t sold any of these coins for quite a while.

Demand for precious metals continues to be strong even though we see NOISE BLEED price levels for Bitcoin.  Bitcoin surpassed $40,000 today.  Both Tesla and Bitcoin are perfect examples of TULIP BUBBLES ON STEROIDS.  If investors want to know Tesla’s REAL FAIR VALUE, you need to check out the Silver Member post below.

Regardless, Silver Eagle sales in 2020 surpassed 30 million while Gold Eagles totaled 844,000 oz.  Amazingly, the U.S. Mint has sold over a half-billion Silver Eagles and 24 million Gold Eagles, which turns out to be a 23/1 Silver to Gold Eagle ratio over the 1986-2020 period.  However, the ratio last year was 36/1.  Thus, the U.S. Mint sold 36 times more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles in 2020.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Poll Data: Silver Stackers and Solar Panels to Push Silver Higher

Silver will be the best performer in a bullish precious metals market

Much has been said about silver’s outperformance last year, and indeed, what should be an even better year ahead. After climbing to a seven-year high, forecasters have repeatedly stated that there’s plenty of room for silver to shoot up to $50 this year.

Kitco’s 2021 Outlook survey, which polled 1,015 investors, came back with sentiment that was very much in line with previous forecasts. Main Street investors and analysts are bullish on all precious metals, and expect silver to outperform its peers due to a combination of demand from the manufacturing sector as well as investor demand.

The rise in inflation expectations pushed gold to a new all-time high of $2,070 in August, and many participants see plenty of similar action for the yellow metal this year. However, a 56% majority of respondents listed silver as their top choice due to a push for green energy. Today’s solar panels each require 1/3 oz. of silver each, on average, so when interest in renewable energy booms, silver prices tend to follow suit. In fact, some studies suggest that silver supplies might constrain large-scale conversion to solar power, and when supplies tighten, prices rise.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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