What does $200 trillion of debt really mean for the global economy?
A few years ago, in the depths of the recession caused by the financial crisis, I began an investigation into the consequences of several economic trends that I thought were bound to put a permanent end to the boom times that my generation, the post-war ‘baby boomers’, had grown up in. These trends included the threat to jobs caused by fierce global competition, helped by the rise of digital technology; the financialization of the economy and the relative decline of real industry; the resulting rise in inequality, and also the excessive build-up of debt, which was of course the main cause of the crash.
But the crash didn’t put an end to the build-up of debt – the credit bubble just deflated slightly, as $20 trillion or so vanished off the face of the earth. This wealth never really existed of course – it consisted only of numbers in bank accounts or over-optimistic valuations of shares or property – but even so, a lot of people saw their pension funds and other investments reduced in value.
Despite all the concerns over debt since the crisis, the credit bubble has been growing again and is now bigger than ever, both globally and in some (though not all) ‘advanced’ nations, notably Japan and the UK, two of the most indebted economies. We don’t appear to have learnt much from the crash.
What does it mean when total world debt amounts to something in the region of $200 trillion, or roughly three times annual world output?
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