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Peak Oil Review – 25 December 2014

By in Energy on .

Peak Oil Review – 25 December 2014.

 Mid-Week Update

Oil futures have been volatile this week, swinging $1-2 a barrel on the latest news. New York crude closed Wednesday at $55.84 a barrel and London at $60.24, about where they have been for the last ten days. This week the up swings came from better economic news and the down days from increasing stocks. The weekly inventory  report showed an unusual late December gain of 7.3 million barrels in US crude inventories. These inventories usually slide in December as refineries cut down on imports to avoid year-end taxes on oil in storage. Crude supplies at Cushing, Okla. grew by 973,000 barrels last week to 28.2 million, the highest since last March.

Evidence continued to accumulate that US shale oil production is likely to decline, perhaps substantially in the coming year.  Continental Resources, a major player in the Bakken, announced that its capital expenditures next year would be only $2.7 billion, down from its original budget of $5.2 billion. The Bakken Shale rig count decreased by seven units last week to 180. The Texas Railroad Commission announced that new oil and gas drilling permits in November fell by roughly 50 percent from the number issued in October.  Numerous smaller companies have announced cuts in their drilling budgests for next year.

A new analysis of Bakken shale oil production suggests that recently drilled and fracked wells are producing less oil than those drilled in past years. The percentage of water coming from new wells in the Bakken also seems to be on the rise.  As the sweet spots of shale oil fields are intenisvely dirlled, we can expect that productivity of new wells will slowly decline and the costs of production per barrel will gradually increase.

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