Bill Blain On Provident’s Suprime Shock: “Can’t Get Much Worse You’d Think? Oh Yes It Can”
By Bill Blain of Mint Partners
Blain’s Morning Porridge
Provident Financial. What a mess. Is it an opportunity?
Provident has become the story of the week. In case you missed it: the stock has been hammered and its bonds are trading massively down on the back of multiple bad news bullets: an FCA investigation into the Vanquis credit card and loan repayment options, a failed new technology introduction and new staffing approach that caused a leap in defaults from 10% to 43% (!), suspended dividends and the departure of the CEO.
Ouch.
For years Provident was a respected name, secure in its niche supplying credit to the bottom of the UK credit pool. Its experienced independent door-to-door salesmen managed their clients pragmatically – a personal touch that kept defaults low and recoveries high. Earlier this year the model was turned on its head. The independent door-to-door guys were replaced by I-pad wielding scripted staff controlled by head office. The system appears to have collapsed overnight. Defaults soared.
The firm threw away control of its clients.
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Muppets.
Provident has been described as “uninvestable”.
It looks like a case of classic management incompetence. Replace a tried and tested functional business model with something new that doesn’t work. But there is more to it. It should remind fixed income investors of the importance of cash-flow – and exactly how cash is collected and overseen. Years of experience has taught us that firms with a tight control of their credit processes and sustainable businesses are the ones to invest in.
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