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Zero Carbon Sooner—Revised case for an early zero carbon target for the UK
Zero Carbon Sooner—Revised case for an early zero carbon target for the UK
Cover image: Anthony Gormley’s ‘Another Place’ in Liverpool; photographed by Donald Judge / flickr.com (CC-BY 2.0); modified
Summary
This paper is an update of an earlier briefing note[1], revised to take account of new findings from the IPCC’s updated 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The broad aim of the paper is to establish how soon the UK should aim for (net) zero carbon emissions. The paper first derives a ‘fair remaining carbon budget’ for the UK. It then analyses a variety of emission pathways and target dates for their adequacy in terms of remaining within this budget.
A first key finding is that a target date for zero carbon is not sufficient in itself to determine whether the UK remains within its carbon budget. Policy must specify both a target date and an associated emissions pathway. A second key finding is that the sufficiency of these targets and pathways depends crucially on whether emissions are accounted for on a ‘territorial’ basis or on a ‘consumption’ basis.
For a linear reduction pathway not to exceed the remaining carbon budget the net zero target year would have to be between 2027 and 2032, depending on the accounting framework. For a target year of 2050, the average rate of emission reductions must lie in the range 17-27% if the UK’s fair budget is not to be exceeded. As measured on a consumption basis, these rates would require absolute reductions approaching 95% of current carbon emissions as early as 2030. Consequently, this paper argues in favour of setting a UK target for net zero carbon emissions no later than 2035, with a maximum of around 5% of the mitigation effort achieved through negative emission technologies.
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The full working paper is available for download in pdf (1.4MB). | Jackson T 2021. Zero Carbon Sooner…
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Energy round-up: the next five years
Energy round-up: the next five years
Three things you shouldn’t miss this week
- Article: What will a Conservative majority mean for climate and energy? – Carbon Brief’s essential post-election summary.
- Report: Decarbonizing Development Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future – What needs to happen now for the world to have zero emissions by 2100.
- Chart: Low oil prices are making their mark on shale output in the US:
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Energy and climate policy was scarcely mentioned during the UK election campaign. With a new government in place much sooner than expected, what do the next five years hold?
The appointment of Amber Rudd as the new Energy Secretary waswelcomed by environmentalists, with the Renewable Energy Association hailing her as “a champion of renewables and low-carbon economy”. But then, as her predecessor Ed Davey found, policy in this critical area is not exclusively controlled by the Secretary of State.
On low-carbon policy the Conservative manifesto is mixed: it pledges to support value for money renewables while simultaneously promising to abolish financial support for new onshore wind farms – one of the cheapest low carbon energy options. The new government is also a staunch supporter of fracking – but those hoping to replicate US expansion would be wise to notice the tide is turning (see our chart of the week).
Whether the fall in US shale output is temporary or terminal remains to be seen, but at least one prominent financier is scathing about the industry’s prospects. Shares in drilling companies plunged after hedge fund manager David Einhorn, famous for predicting the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, likened the industry’s business model to “using $50 bills to counterfeit $20s”.
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