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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Civil War Cycle Heating up in America – Charles Nenner (#2)

Civil War Cycle Heating up in America – Charles Nenner (#2)

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner thinks the probability for war and civil unrest is coming around in an intense cycle not seen for decades. Nenner says, “Years ago when we talked about my war cycles, I said I am more worried about internal social war in the United States than outside wars. I think there is a bigger chance in the United States than in Europe. They say it’s Trump’s fault . . . . I say it’s the other way around. If the Democrats would just get things organized and people would not get that angry. . . . The media will always take the other side, so they will never solve it. I think it is the Democrats whose fault it is that all these killings are there and not the Republicans. . . . So, there is a cycle of social unrest in the United States, which is 60 years old. So, you go back to what happened in the 1960’s. It could explode, and I think it is going to explode, and there is going to be a major problem. . . . I don’t know how bad it is going to be, but based on cycles, it has to be worse than the 1960’s. Each cycle always is worse. . . . WWII was worse than WWI, so every cycle becomes worse than the first cycle. . . . I don’t feel comfortable living in the United States anymore because people are so aggressive on everything. I went to the airport and I asked where the men’s room was, and they almost killed me. They said there was no men’s room. It’s called a ‘people room.’ I said I was sorry, you don’t have to be so aggressive.”

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Trump – Israel – Putin – Middle East

Trump – Israel – Putin – Middle East 

The interesting aspect of our war models has been that this cycle turned up in 2014 and we really do not reach the point of a major peak before 2022/2023. Back in 2015, we published a segment on the rising tensions that would emerge in the Middle East – the War Cycle. We warned about the division along the lines of religion in the Middle East which has pitted Saudi Arabia against Iran would become the major issue. As far as Israel was concerned, this would tend to turn up from January 10th, 2019, which is the conclusion of a 51.6-year wave from the 1967 6-Day war. Now the pieces are beginning to line up.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that “it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights” received an enthusiastic welcome in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was boosted in his position in the upcoming April 9th elections. He said he welcomed this “Purim miracle.” His rival Benny Gantz, whose party’s leading lights helped push for American recognition of the Golan’s annexation, said in a statement that Trump was cementing his place in history as a true friend of Israel.

That Netanyahu and Gantz were both delighted no doubt. The annexation of the Golan and the settlements established there enjoy widespread support in Israel. Ever since the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Syria has refrained from any attempt to recover the Golan by force. After 51.6 years, even the Druze residents of the northern Golan had accepted Israeli rule without rebelling. Naturally, Syria slammed Trump’s statement that it was time to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights as “irresponsible” remarking that it confirms “the blind bias of the United States to the Zionist entity.”

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The View of American Politics from Afar

COMMENT: This business with Trump and the media is quite amazing when seen from a distance. I read posts from people who can not see past what they are believing. It’s as if the hate for Trump has become a Religion. A religious person will refuse to look at things from another perspective and this is what is happening in your country.

K (UK)

REPLY: Oh yes. It has been whipped up into a religious frenzy. What the media and the Democrats have overlooked is they have gone WAY TOO FAR and this is indeed becoming a religious quest and therein lies the danger for HUGE civil unrest. After the November elections, there is NO POSSIBLE WAY that either side will accept the results. This means historically the only solution becomes violence. The Media is so hateful of Trump because he has called them the fake news. But he has only stated what the majority believe and those in the media refuse to acknowledge. Most Americans cannot even name a nonbiased neutral news source! Gallup Poll now shows that 45% see a great deal of political bias in news coverage, up from 25% in 1989.

We are cascading into the War Cycle and believe me, this is NOT a forecast I even like to repeat. It is not something where I am warning people to reverse course or else, because there is no reversing this trend. We are a fly on the rear-end of an elephant with no shot of steering him in the right direction. We simply have to ride it out until the bloody end.

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Who Will Raise Rates? The Market or the Fed?

Int Rate Rise

Some people are confused by what I mean when I say that rates will rise as we move into the sovereign debt crisis, which will pick up steam in 2017 moving into 2020. We are NOT talking about central banks raising rates; we are looking at the FREE MARKET. As people realize that government debt comes with a risk, capital will begin to shift into the private assets. The market will not buy all the government debt that appears ready to explode. With central banks moving negative on short-term rates, smart money will wake up and flip into equities. If equities break-even, that is better than a guaranteed loss in government bonds. In Japan, the 10 year rate just went NEGATIVE so you want to park money with the government for 10 years and pay them to hold it?

Plus, the risk with government bonds will be that they can convert even short-term paper, of say 90 days, to 10-year bonds. Governments have done this before. As banks begin to get in trouble again, smart money will try to get off the grid. Banks will have to pay more for money as those keeping money in banks move out.

The FREE MARKET will force rates higher. Sure, central banks can keep short-term rates NEGATIVE as long as they buy the government debt. But this cannot continue indefinitely. The FREE MARKET will always win. This is how governments fail. The game remains on as long as there are bids at their auctions to sell new debt. What happens when there is NO BID? That is how the FREE MARKET will raise rates. Smart capital will move from public to private debt and equities in addition to gold and real estate on a VERY SELECTED basis.

The Cycle of War turned up in 2014. We have seen an escalation in international war (Russia-Ukraine) and in the Middle East while civil unrest spreads everywhere. This trend will pick up also in 2017 and move into 2020.

Grant Williams: The Consequences Of Economic Peace | Zero Hedge

Grant Williams: The Consequences Of Economic Peace | Zero Hedge.

The following chart-heavy presentation from Grant Williams is among his best as he wends his way methodically from the 19th century to the present day (and into the future) examining “The Consequences of the Economic Peace.” From Keynes to Kondratieff and from Napoleon to Nixon, Williams looks at the ramifications of several decades of easy credit and attempts to draw parallels with a time in history when the world looked remarkably similar to how it does now (as he notes “that last time didn’t end so well, I’m afraid.”) The real day of reckoning (Williams notes rather ominously), when the unconscionable level of debt that has been built up during the fiat money era finally topples over under its own weight like the giant wave in The Perfect Storm, lies ahead of us.

Full Presentation:

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Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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