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Rising GDP + Rising Yields = A MAJOR Sign of “Uh-Oh”

September 5, 2023

Rising GDP + Rising Yields = A MAJOR Sign of “Uh-Oh” Have you heard the good news? The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates a 5.9% growth in real GDP for Q3 2023. In nominal terms, we can even boast of an 8.9% surge. What fantastic news! Growth! Productivity! This must mean we can all breath a collective sigh […]

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Weekly Commentary: Regime Change

March 4, 2021

Weekly Commentary: Regime Change Ten-year Treasury yields closed out a tumultuous week at 1.41% bps, pulling back after Thursday’s spike to a one-year high 1.61%. Ten-year Treasury yields are now up 49 bps from the start of the year and almost 100 bps (1 percentage point) off August 2020 lows. More dramatic, five-year yields jumped […]

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These “Gradual” Rate Hikes Start to Add Up: US Treasury Yields up to Three Years Hit 10-Year Highs

September 6, 2018

These “Gradual” Rate Hikes Start to Add Up: US Treasury Yields up to Three Years Hit 10-Year Highs An entire generation working on Wall Street has never seen Treasury yields this high. The one-month treasury yield rose to 2.0% yesterday at the close and is at about the same level today, the highest since June […]

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“This Won’t End Well” – Mortgage Rates Spike To 4-Year Highs

February 8, 2018

“This Won’t End Well” – Mortgage Rates Spike To 4-Year Highs Growth? Inflation? Be careful what you wish for, as the surge in Treasury yields has sent mortgage interest rates to their highest in four years, flashing a big red warning light for affordability and home sales in 2018… The U.S. weekly average 30-year fixed […]

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Dollar-Denominated Corporate Time Bomb Set to Blow

November 30, 2015

Dollar-Denominated Corporate Time Bomb Set to Blow Emerging economies around the world are already feeling the first pangs of withdrawal as fast yield-chasing investors send their funds back to the U.S. in anticipation of higher Treasury yields and a further appreciating dollar. In Mexico, the central bank has just published its balance of payments data […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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