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Double Tropical Trouble Brewing For US Gulf Coast

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest update (Saturday morning) on two tropical storms swirling in the Gulf of Mexico, with crosshairs both pointed at the Gulf Coast of the US, is that both storms are set to strengthen through the weekend.

Readers may recall, Tropical Depression 13 (upgraded to Tropical Storm Laura) and Tropical Depression 14 (upgraded to Tropical Storm Marco), are two systems positioned in different locations of the Gulf of Mexico, with long-term tracking models both forecasting the storms could make landfall in very similar areas within, or a little more than a day apart.

“It is really unprecedented to have two storms make landfall within 24 to 36 hours in essentially the same spot,” Aaron Carmichael, a meteorologist with the commercial forecaster Maxar, told Bloomberg.

The last time two storms simultaneously traversed the warm waters of the Gulf was in 1959. The current forecast suggests Marco could strike south Texas to western Louisiana, on Tuesday, while Laura could make landfall on Wednesday evening into Thursday from Houston, Texas, to Mobile, Alabama.

The NHC released a statement at 11:00 ET about new updates on Laura, indicating the system is moving across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Another statement was released by NHC detailing Marco could become a hurricane on Saturday night.

Long-term track models of both systems suggests, if both are upgraded to hurricane status before landfall, there could be widespread coastal damage from Texas to Alabama.

Carmichael said, “there’s still a lot of uncertainty with the forecast because the two storms could interact, with one sapping the other of its strength.”

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Looming Gas Shortage: “Imports Can’t Make Up For This”

Looming Gas Shortage: “Imports Can’t Make Up For This”

Out Of Gas

The East Coast will start feeling the effects of Hurricane Harvey as the gasoline supplied from the Gulf Coast starts to dry up. One of the most important pipelines that ships refined products to the Eastern Seaboard shut down on Thursday, which means that the U.S. Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast could see supply disruptions and price increases.

The Colonial Pipeline carries gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from several refineries in Houston, Port Arthur and Lake Charles, along the Texas and Louisiana Coast, up through the U.S. Southeast to Washington DC, Baltimore, and New Jersey.

The pipeline had been operational through the worst of the Hurricane, easing fears about supply disruptions. But the outages at the nation’s top refineries along the Gulf Coast have forced the Colonial Pipeline company to announce on Wednesday that it was shutting down Line 2, which carries diesel and jet fuel due to “supply constraints.” And on Thursday, the company shuttered Line 1, the pipeline that carries gasoline. The pipeline company said that operations would only resume when it can “ensure that its facilities are safe to operate and refiners in Lake Charles and points east have the ability to move product to Colonial.”

It is hard to overstate the critical role that the Colonial Pipeline plays. It carries 2.5 million barrels of refined products per day, or as the FT notes, “roughly one in every eight barrels of fuel consumed in the country.” More importantly, it is one of the only suppliers for major cities on the eastern seaboard, including New York, Washington DC and Atlanta.

“With no refineries between the Gulf coast and Pennsylvania, the south-east is largely dependent on pipelines from the Gulf coast for their fuel, with Colonial being the largest,” Jason Bordoff, the director of Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy, told the FT.

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