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Defaults in European Retailers and US Energy on the rise

Defaults in European Retailers and US Energy on the rise

2019 has been a pleasant ride so far for high yield investors. Over the past 9 months the global high yield market has delivered a total return of 10.9% and an excess return of 6.4%, in part thanks to the U-turn of major central banks. Despite all the good news, things have occasionally gone wrong.

Recent events have reminded high yield investors that investing doesn’t come without risk. Thomas Cook, the UK tour operator, was grounded after final restructuring negotiations failed. To blame Brexit or the slowdown in global growth for the default would be a hasty conclusion. The business, operating in a structurally challenged industry, had long stretched its financials to the limits. The fragile situation did not go unnoticed by customers, who had stopped booking with the business. As a result of this, 2018 EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) dropped by 14.6% year-on-year which also changed the ability to materially generate positive cash flow. The company produced a negative free cash flow of £148 million in 2018. 2019 half year numbers revealed an even worse picture, with a seasonal outflow of £839 million; £121 million higher than the previous year. Operating with current liabilities that exceeded current assets by £2bn, made the solvency issue even more pressing and, in the end, didn’t allow the company to recover in time. This is a prime example of how quickly things can fall apart if consumers lose trust in a business. With bonds trading currently at 7 cents in the euro, investors only foresee a limited recovery rate for the asset-light business, which is also carrying a large amount of debt structurally senior
to the bonds.

High Yield defaults by Issuer

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The U.S. Energy Industry Can’t Afford A Trade War

The U.S. Energy Industry Can’t Afford A Trade War

oil roughnecks

As the U.S.-China trade spat turns into a full-blown war with tariffs and retaliatory tariffs and threats of further tariffs, U.S. energy exports to China may suffer if Beijing follows through with its threat to slap tariffs on U.S. oil and oil product imports.

China has, in recent years, become a key export market for growing U.S. energy exports. In fact, China is America’s second-largest crude oil customer after Canada and is also one of the biggest importers of U.S. propane and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Associations of U.S. manufacturers, retailers, and petroleum and chemicals producers have stepped up calls on the U.S. Administration to seek alternative solutions to the tariffs, warning that additional levies would hurt U.S. jobs and growth.

If the United States were to impose tariffs on oil, U.S. oil sellers would have to look for other destinations and attract new customers, which could cost them more.

Last year, more U.S. crude oil was sent to China than any other destination except Canada, the EIA said in an analysis on Tuesday. China received more U.S. crude oil in 2017 than the third- and fourth-largest importers combined, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

U.S. crude oil exports to China averaged 330,000 bpd between January and April this year, with February sales to China beating even exports to Canada, according to the EIA.

And it’s not just crude oil. China was also the third-largest destination for U.S. propane exports last year, behind only Japan and Mexico. Around half of U.S. propane exports went to Asia in 2017, displacing supplies from Middle Eastern countries and some regional production of propane.

For LNG, 15 percent of U.S. exports went to China, making it the third-largest importer of U.S. LNG behind Mexico and South Korea.

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