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This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy

This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy

There is no escape.

The Census Bureau announced today that total business sales in January did what they’d been doing relentlessly for the past one-and-a-half years: they fell! This time by 1.1% from a year ago, to  $1.296 trillion, and by 5% from their peak in July 2014.

They’re now back where they’d been in January 2013. Sales are adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. And since January 2013, the consumer price index rose 2.8%! This is why the US economy has looked so crummy.

That’s bad enough. But it gets much worse.

Total business sales are composed of three categories: sales by merchant wholesalers (33% of total), by manufacturers (36% of total), and by retailers (30% of total).

Sales by merchant wholesalers took the biggest hit: they plunged 6.4% from January a year ago, to $433.1 billion.

Symptomatic for the lousy state of business investment, sales of professional equipment dropped 4.1% year-over-year, with computer equipment and software sales plunging 10.2%. Sales of electrical equipment, the largest category among durable goods, fell 5.0%. Sales of machinery fell 1.4%. And “misc. durable” sales plunged 8.6%.

The economy’s kick-butt, take-no-prisoners winner? Sales of drugs soared 11.0% to $53.6 billion. As we found out today via Express Scripts Drug Trend Report, those sales increases weren’t caused by people suddenly taking more drugs; they were caused largely by price gouging.

Turns out, prices of brand-name prescription drugs soared 16.2% in 2015! One third of these drugs had price increases of over 20%! On average, they’re up nearly 100% since 2011. This is a patent-protected, monopolistic industry that has managed to rip off every consumer and government in the US. And there’s more. Express Scripts:

Moreover, the industry faced opportunistic manufacturers who exploited monopolies with old generic medications and captive pharmacy arrangements, and ongoing scheming by compounding pharmacies to promote sales of high-priced, no-value compound medications.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fed Is Not Just Behind The Curve, It’s Driving The Bus Over The Cliff

Fed Is Not Just Behind The Curve, It’s Driving The Bus Over The Cliff

So the Fed didn’t raise rates again. And the timing of the rate increase will be data dependent. Ho hum.

There’s just one little problem. The inflation measures the Fed watches really don’t measure inflation. The Fed won’t see what its cronies in the government and economic establishment refuse to measure, which is that we’ve already long since passed the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Every 3 months the US Census Bureau releases the results of its quarterly housing survey. We now know that rents rose by 6.2% year over year in the second quarter. But the fictitious number that the BLS uses to account for housing costs in the CPI, called Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER), is only up by +2.9% year over year. The difference of 3.3% is known by the technical term: fudge factor. In this case, the BLS is undercounting the housing component of CPI by more than half.

Owner’s equivalent rent and actual renter’s rent account for 31% of the total weight of the CPI.  Multiplying the weighting of this component by the 3.3% fudge factor cuts a full 1% off the headline CPI and 1.3% off core CPI. If rent were counted accurately, headline CPI would be 2.2%, year over year, not 1.2%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) would be +3.1%, not 1.8%.

Since Core has lately been stronger than the headline number, the Fed has naturally shifted its focus away from Core. But it doesn’t matter. The Fed is behind the curve. Way behind.

Actual Rent Versus Owner's Equivalent Rent- Click to enlarge

Click to view chart from email
The BLS counted actual housing prices in CPI until 1982, but it got too expensive. The Federal Government uses CPI to index government salaries and benefits, and major employers often use it for the same purpose. So back in 1982 business and government came together and got the BLS to find a way to fudge the housing component of CPI so that it would understate inflationary reality. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

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