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Auto loan delinquency spikes in Alberta, Saskatchewan

Auto loan delinquency spikes in Alberta, Saskatchewan

Credit agency TransUnion points to non-mortgage debt defaults in oil-producing provinces

Pickup truck sales have grown rapidly in the past five years, but with job losses in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the debt from auto loans is hanging over some consumers.

Pickup truck sales have grown rapidly in the past five years, but with job losses in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the debt from auto loans is hanging over some consumers.

There has been enormous sales growth of pickup trucks and crossover SUVs  in the last five years, but the costs of these larger vehicles are weighing heavily on consumers in some oil-producing provinces.

Auto loan delinquency rates in Canada were at their highest level in four years in the fourth quarter of 2015, driven by spikes of 35 per cent in Alberta and 19 per cent in Saskatchewan.

According to the credit trends reporting agency TransUnion, Saskatchewan has the highest auto loan delinquency rate in the country, at 2.7  per cent, followed by Alberta at 2.4 per cent.

Delinquency on auto loans occurs when payments are 60 or more days past due.

“Falling oil prices have led to rising unemployment rates in oil-rich regions,” said Jason Wang, TransUnion’s director of research and analysis.

“We are now seeing the increase in unemployment in these areas manifest as rising delinquencies across the board, though the greatest impact has been on auto loans.”

For Canada as a whole, auto loan delinquencies rose to 1.3 per cent.

Moody’s has warned some Canadian banks over auto loans, which have been getting larger as buyers opt for large vehicles and is now spread over longer terms of up to seven years.

There were also shifts in delinquency rates on other non-mortgage debt, with more people in British Columbia and Ontario able to keep up with their bills, while delinquencies climbed in Quebec, Alberta and Saskatchewan.

TransUnion said Canadians’ average non-mortgage debt edged up slightly to $21,512 at the end of 2015, from $21,248 in 2014.

Canadians used their credit cards more heavily during holiday shopping in 2015, and there was 4.1 per cent more debt on credit cards, Wang said.

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TransUnion expects spike in debt delinquencies in Alberta, Saskatchewan

TransUnion expects spike in debt delinquencies in Alberta, Saskatchewan

Alberta and Saskatchewan will soon see a ‘sharp’ increase in the number of people falling behind on their debts for the rest of this year, credit agency TransUnion says.

The debt monitor said in a study released Wednesday that it is expecting the number of consumer credit delinquencies to increase by double-digits in Saskatchewan, and as much as 60 per cent in parts of Alberta.

Oil’s impact

The two provinces are disproportionately dependent on oil prices to drive their economy. In Alberta’s case, more than a quarter of the province’s GDP is tied to oil revenues, which have halved in the past year. In Saskatchewan’s case, the ratio is still high at more than one sixth of GDP tied to oil.

Cheap oil has hit those economies in many ways. “First, oil price drops cause lower oil sector investment,” TransUnion says. That leads to higher unemployment, which leads to less disposable income to spend in all other aspects of the economy.

“Consumers then have lower ability to service debt, finally resulting in higher delinquency rates,” TransUnion says.

Household Debt

The number of people who pay off only twice their minimum credit card payment has increased by 10 per cent in Fort McMurray since last summer, TransUnion says. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)


“Based on an historical analysis of the last oil crash and recent payment behaviour trends, we expect materially higher delinquency rates in Alberta and Saskatchewan in the second half of 2015,” the company’s research director Jason Wang said.

“If lenders do not take proactive measures to address the impact of the decline in oil prices, we could potentially see double-digit delinquency rate increases in Saskatchewan, and as much as a 60 per cent rise in areas of Alberta.”

 

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