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The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I was able to write the following: “The timing for the […]
G20 and the financial war
G20 and the financial war This weekend, the G20 nations meet at Buenos Aires. The most important issue will be America’s use of trade policy, ostensibly to bring an end to China’s unfair trade practices. Rather, it could mark a significant milestone in the cold war against China and drive the global economy into a […]
China Launches Personal Attack At “Arrogant, Deceitful” Trump: “We Are Prepared To Fight To The End”
China Launches Personal Attack At “Arrogant, Deceitful” Trump: “We Are Prepared To Fight To The End” All hope abandon ye who think the trade war with China has any hope of ending soon. One month ago, Beijing ordered China’s state media “not to use aggressive language” for Trump. As of Sunday, that directive has clearly […]
Canadians Begin Boycotting US Goods
Canadians Begin Boycotting US Goods With Trump’s trade war against China progressing and escalating seemingly every day, culminating for now with China’s Friday announcement of another $60 billion in tariffs on US imports in response to Trump’s threat to tax $200 billion of Chinese imports at a 25% rate, some China watchers expected that one […]
Trade Tariffs Won’t Crash the World Economy, Monetary Policy Will
Trade Tariffs Won’t Crash the World Economy, Monetary Policy Will As the Trump administration announces 25% tariffs on over $50bn of Chinese goods, and Europe and China prepare retaliation measures, The Economist concludes that “Rising tariffs are the worst of many threats to the world economy”, because, among other things, “Tariffs temporarily push up inflation, […]
China Eyes Yuan Devaluation in Trade Dispute
China Eyes Yuan Devaluation in Trade Dispute Finally, we have a story that makes retaliatory sense vs. the widely believed “nuclear” treasury dumping theory. The widely-circulated “nuclear” theory suggests China would dump US treasuries in a trade war with the US. That theory never made any sense. Such a move would tend to strengthen the […]
Trade Wars Lead to Shooting Wars and Depressions
Trade Wars Lead to Shooting Wars and Depressions Trade wars were a principal factor in causing the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II. The current President of the U.S. has imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum effective March 23, 2018 and proposes tariffs on products imported from China. He has also proposed […]
Were Trade Wars Inevitable?
Were Trade Wars Inevitable? Trade in which mobile capital is the comparative advantage is a system of Neocolonial exploitation of developing-world nations. Were trade wars inevitable? The answer is yes, due to the imbalances and distortions generated by financialization and central bank stimulus. Gordon Long and I peel the trade-war onion in a new video […]
Trump’s Dangerous Game of Chicken
Trump’s Dangerous Game of Chicken As the “tit-for-tat” trade fight between the US and China escalates, Donald Trump is likely to find that he doesn’t “know China” the way he once thought. When he said that during the presidential campaign, he based his understanding of China on one thing: the high rent in Trump Tower […]
Trade Wars Just Beginning…The War Is a Fight Over an Indefinitely Shrinking Pie
Trade Wars Just Beginning…The War Is a Fight Over an Indefinitely Shrinking Pie From a growth perspective, it doesn’t matter if the world is 7.5 million or 7.5 billion persons…it only matters how many more there are from one year to the next. Economic growth (or the ability to consume more…not produce more) is about the […]
Trade War Game On!
Trade War Game On! Interesting Times Arrive “Things sure are getting exciting again, ain’t they?” The remark was made by a colleague on Tuesday morning, as we stepped off the elevator to grab a cup of coffee. Ancient Chinese curse alert… [PT] “One moment markets are gorging on financial slop like fat pigs in mud. […]
Here Are China’s Five Options For “Nuclear” Trade War
Here Are China’s Five Options For “Nuclear” Trade War After Trump ordered the USTR to consider an additional $100BN in tariffs, something we said on Wednesday would happen if the market was dumb enough to allow Trump to think he had a trade war victory by closing green… S&P 500 EXTENDS GAIN ABOVE FRIDAY’S CLOSE, […]
Central Banks Have Killed Free Trade
Central Banks Have Killed Free Trade Defenders and critics of “free trade” and globalization tend to present the issue as either/or: It’s inherently good or bad. In the real world, it’s not that simple. The confusion starts with defining free trade (and by extension, globalization). In the classical definition of free trade espoused by 18th […]
Hidden No More, The Currency Wars Take Center Stage
Hidden No More, The Currency Wars Take Center Stage The market stands on a sinkhole, waiting for the next feather to drop. A feather that will bring down the system and send us into another economic crisis that will make the 2008 crash look like an opening act. For years, I and many others within […]
