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Canada Pauses Reporting Trade Data, Blames US Shutdown

Statistics Canada said today the release of their monthly trade statistics will be delayed indefinitely due to the current shutdown of the U.S. government.

“Trade statistics without Canada’s exports to the United States have limited use as a current economic indicator, as these exports represent approximately 75% of Canada’s total exports.”

The U.S. shutdown “has a direct impact on Statistics Canada’s ability to compile, produce and publish Canadian international merchandise trade data, as Statistics Canada will not receive data on Canada’s exports to the United States for the duration of the shutdown”

Publication of December 2018 trade data won’t occur as scheduled on Feb. 5, 2019.

The agency says it will delay the release of trade statistics “until the USCB resumes normal operations and a new joint release date is negotiated with the USCB as per the data exchange agreement”

The question is – why should a US shutdown affect Statistics Canada’s ability to track its own imports and exports? Is there some ‘negotiated’ agreement between the trade partners to ensure that the data is manipulated just right (so as to avoid the glaring errors that are so evident between China and Hong Kong for instance).

Historically they can’t quite agree…

China Trade Data is Nail in the Coffin of Global Economy

Chinese exports and imports even though China’s trade balance with the US rose.

Eamonn Sheridan at Forex Live has some interesting comments on China’s December Trade Balance.

The export figures are a focus and they are poor indeed. But save some space in the barf bag for the import results, they are terrible – huge miss on these.

Demand in China has been showing evidence of slowing. This is a nail in the coffin.

December 2018 Data – Yuan Terms

  • China trade balance comes in at CNY 395bn, expected CNY 345bn, prior was CNY 306bn
  • Exports 0.2% y/y, expected 6.6%, prior was 10.2%… BIG MISS
  • Imports -3.1% y/y, expected 12.0%, prior was 7.8% … even bigger miss

December 2018 Data – US Dollar Terms

  • China trade balance USD 57.06bn, expected $51.6bn, prior was $44.7bn
  • Exports -4.4% y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 5.4%
  • Imports -7.6% y/y, expected 4.5%, prior was 3.0%

Tariff Man

Brad Setser on Twitter
Brad Setser on Twitter

Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low

Including $13bn in US asset divestitures by Chinese investors, China’s net US investment actually shrank by $8bn in 2018.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Accuses US Of Fabricating Trade Data, Warns “Trade War Would Be A Disaster”

While Canada and Mexico and soon other US “allies” have so far been spared the brunt of the Trump import tariffs on aluminum and steel imports as a result of “indefinite” exemptions for the duration of Nafta negotiations, China – the country that is the target of Peter Navarro’s trade scorn – has not been so lucky, and the result has been an outpouring of increasingly hostile jawboning by Beijing, which while taking the Trump gambit in stride so far, is clearly concerned how far Trump could ratchet up protectionist measures.

As a result, on Sunday China said that it will not initiate a trade war with the United States, but vowed to defend its national interests in the face of growing American protectionism.

There are no winners in a trade war, and it would bring disaster to our two countries as well as the rest of the world,” China’s Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said at a briefing on the sidelines of the country’s annual parliamentary session according to AP.

“China does not wish to fight a trade war, nor will China initiate a trade war, but we can handle any challenge and will resolutely defend the interests of our country and our people,” he said.

Shan’s statement was Beijing’s latest official remark on “problems in Sino-U.S. economic trade and cooperation,” alluding to Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

To be sure, Chinese leaders have threatened in the past to retaliate against raised trade barriers, but have yet to take direct action following Trump’s announcement. Earlier in the week, China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, vowed a “justified and necessary response” to Washington’s initiative, but that too has yet to take any concrete shape.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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