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#259: The way we live next
#259: The way we live next REFLECTIONS ON THE REAL ECONOMY “Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security”, according to a new report published by Nature. The technical jargon here references a “meandering jet stream” but, for non-specialists, what this means is that we can no longer rely on worse-than-average crop conditions […]
#246: The Surplus Energy Economy, part 1
#246: The Surplus Energy Economy, part 1 FROM FIRST PRINCIPLES Introduction We have reached a turning-point at which economics and the economy have parted company. Orthodox economics continues to promise growth in perpetuity, but the economy itself is going in the opposite direction. The explanation for this is simple. Conventional economics assumes that the economy is […]
#243. The Great Inflexion
#243. The Great Inflexion A SYSTEM UNRAVELS INTRODUCTION As everyone surely knows by now, the global economy has entered a recession which is likely to be both severe and protracted. For the most part, governments and central bankers are concentrating on the task of trying to tame inflation. Their critics tend to argue for more expansionary […]
#242. The dynamics of global re-pricing
#242. The dynamics of global re-pricing IN SEARCH OF EXPLANATIONS SUMMARY There is a growing acknowledgement that the World economy has entered a new era. We know that the cost of capital is trending upwards, with adverse consequences for asset prices. But there’s been remarkably little inclination to examine the underlying processes that are causing this […]
#238. Money and the end of abundance
#238. Money and the end of abundance A FINANCIAL CRISIS PRIMER Amongst the world’s decision-makers, French president Emmanuel Macron has come closer than anyone to spelling out the reality of the current economic situation, saying that “we are in the process of living through a tipping point or great upheaval”, and referencing “the end of abundance” (my emphasis). […]
#228. In the eye of the Perfect Storm
#228. In the eye of the Perfect Storm A GUIDE TO THE SURPLUS ENERGY ECONOMY FOREWORD The title of this report makes intentional reference to the Perfect Storm paper published by Tullett Prebon back in 2013, when I was head of research at that organization. Since then, my efforts have been concentrated on (a) promoting discussion (at Surplus Energy […]
#235. The affordability crisis
#235. The affordability crisis WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING What might be called the ‘consensus narrative of the moment’ is that our near-term economic prospects depend on the ability of central banks to tame inflation without tipping the economy into a severe recession. There are numerous complications, of course, but this is the gist of the story. What these […]
#225. Gravitational pull
#225. Gravitational pull MANAGING THE REALITY OF ‘LIFE AFTER ORTHODOXY’ A new ‘heavenly body’ has entered the cosmology of political and corporate decision. This new influence is the emerging reality that the economy is turning out, after all, to be an energy system, and that long-accepted ideas to the contrary are fallacious. The concept of limits is […]
#221. Strategies for a post-growth economy
#221. Strategies for a post-growth economy PART ONE: BUSINESS IN A NEW ERA Under current conditions, it’s increasingly hard to understand why the inevitability of economic contraction remains so very much a minority point of view. Many of us have long understood why past growth in material prosperity has gone into reverse. Here, with the SEEDS […]
#220. The human factor
#220. The human factor CONTINUITY, CONTRACTION OR COLLAPSE Over an extended period, but with growing intensity in recent times, there has been a discussion, here and elsewhere, about whether we can prevent economic contraction from turning into collapse. This is part of a broader debate in which every point of view seems to begin with the letter C. The […]
#219. The unravelling begins
#219. The unravelling begins THE REALITY OF SCARCITY, THE SCARCITY OF REALITY In nineteenth-century England, pictures of great events and famous personages could be purchased “penny-plain or tuppence-coloured”. Where the world economy is concerned, the price of flattering colouration has soared into the trillions, but the value of a “penny-plain” view has never been higher. The […]
#218. The real state of the economy
#218. The real state of the economy A FUNCTIONAL SYNOPSIS As this might be the last article to appear here before the festive season, I’d like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year, and to thank you for your interest in, and your contributions to, […]
#216. It’s now
#216. It’s now TIMING THE MOMENT OF FRACTURE When and how can we know that a change of direction is fundamental and lasting, rather than a temporary departure from established trends? That, in essence, is the call we need to make now. Far from being “transitory”, current conditions – including rising inflation, surging energy prices and […]
What is Surplus Energy?
What is Surplus Energy? I’ve been meaning to write an article featuring Dr. Tim Morgan’s blog for quite some time due to the fact that he has quite an awesome site. You can find his blog here, Surplus Energy Economics. Many people may find the word economics in the name somewhat off-putting, but these economics are more about energy […]
#214. Needed – a new model tin-opener
#214. Needed – a new model tin-opener THE LIMITS OF TRANSITION Logically considered, 2021 ought to have been the place where old assumptions go to die. In many ways, it is. Specifically, orthodox, money-based economic interpretation is being debunked. Current events are demonstrating that the economy isn’t, after all, entirely or even primarily a financial system. […]
