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Why The Man Who Manages $1 Trillion Is Bracing For A “Trade Rupture”

While the rest of the market remains remarkably stoic about the potential threat from a long-lasting, escalating trade war with China, the world’s arguably biggest money manager is not so sure: according to Bloomberg, the man running the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund is scrambling to figure out how much damage an all-out global trade war might do to his portfolio.

And with good reason: Yngve Slyngstad, the 55-year-old chief executive officer of Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, oversees investments in more than 70 countries and 9,000 companies across the globe; he also manages a total of just around $1 trillion, or 1.4% of global stocks.

And with that kind of exposure to the global economy, he’s understandably analyzing the signal – and noise – coming from the U.S. and China more closely than most (and with the S&P trading at all time highs, it is safe to say that most aren’t analyzing it at all).

“It’s quite possible there will be a rupture in trade,” Slyngstad told Bloomberg TV in an interview, his caution predicated by his massive exposure everywhere, which would make it hard to avoid disruptions to the global economy when they hit.

While Slyngstad is especially concerned about the fate of China in this new world order, he also questions the future of the global supply chains that make manufacturing tick and on which companies such as Apple rely to make iPhones in China.

“The interesting part long-term is if the global supply chains will become reconfigured,” he said. “Whether that’s actually going to become two regional ones, one centered on the U.S. and another centered on China, or are we still going to have a globalized supply chain as we have today.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Another petro-state throws in the towel – the last nail in the petrodollar coffin

Another petro-state throws in the towel – the last nail in the petrodollar coffin

SWF spending and investment

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Bawerk.net

According to the proposed budget submitted by the current ‘blue-blue’ government the Norwegian deficit will reach another record high in 2016. Mainland taxes are expected to bring in 1,008 billion NOKs, while expenditures are estimated at 1,215 billion NOKs. In other words, 2016 will be another year of record mainland deficit which need to be covered by the offshore sector and its 6,900 bn NOK sovereign wealth fund (SWF).

While record mainland deficits covered by the petroleum sector is nothing new in Norwegian budget history, on the contrary it is closer to the norm, the 2016 budget did raise some eyebrows. The other side of the ledger, the net inflow to the SWF from activities in the North Sea will, again according to budget, be lower than the required amount to cover the deficit. This has never happened before and is testimony of the sea change occurring in the world of petrodollar recycling. Interestingly enough, the need to liquidate SWF holdings is helping to create further deflation in the Eurodollar system in a self-reinforcing loop.

As Eurodollar liquidity dries up and consequently pushes up the price of actual dollar (note, Eurodollars are international claims to domestic US dollars but for which no such dollars actual exists) the problem for petro-states compounds. One way this manifest itself is through international purchasing power of prior savings. A SWF as the Norwegian was created through a surplus of exports over imports meaning it can only be utilized through future imports over exports. When the Norwegians look at their wealth expressed in Norwegian kroner it all looks fine, but expressed in dollars the SWF has shrunk considerably in size.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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