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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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The economy is moving from a tailwind pushing it along to a headwind holding it back

The economy is moving from a tailwind pushing it along to a headwind holding it back The problem is hitting limits in the extraction of fossil fuels We know that historically, many economies around the world have collapsed. We also know that there is a physics reason why this happens. Growing economies require a growing supply of […]

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This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago

This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago In 2010, the scientific journal Nature published a collection of opinions looking ahead 10 years, i.e., where we are right now. Nature then published a short response from zoologist Peter Turchin in its February 2010 issue. Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political […]

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The curse of Thomas Malthus

The curse of Thomas Malthus Running through some notes from last year, I came across an article by Dietrich Vollrath published in 2017 that I’d printed out to give it proper consideration. It’s called, “Who are you calling Malthusian?”, and it addresses that interesting futures question of why calling someone “Malthusian” is such an effective form […]

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2017: The Year When the World Economy Starts Coming Apart

2017: The Year When the World Economy Starts Coming Apart Some people would argue that 2016 was the year that the world economy started to come apart, with the passage of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Whether or not the “coming apart” process started in 2016, in my opinion we are going to see […]

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Role of Wages of the Common Worker in Oil Prices, Collapse

Role of Wages of the Common Worker in Oil Prices, Collapse In their book Secular Cycles, Peter Turchin and Surgey Nefedof point out the important role falling wages of the common workers played in early collapses. I got to thinking that this might be an issue with our current situation as well, including the low level […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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