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Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth

March 3, 2018

A truck cockpit being assembledYegor Aleyev\TASS via Getty Images

Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth

Artificial intelligence researchers and conventional economists may have very different views about the impact of new technologies. But right now, and forgetting the possibility of an existential battle between man and machine, it seems quite plausible to expect a significant pickup in productivity growth over the next five years.

CAMBRIDGE – Most economic forecasters have largely shrugged off recent advances in artificial intelligence (for example, the quantum leap demonstrated by DeepMind’s self-learning chess program last December), seeing little impact on longer-term trend growth. Such pessimism is surely one of the reasons why real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates remain extremely low, even if the bellwether US ten-year bond rate has ticked up half a percentage point in the last few months. If supply-side pessimism is appropriate, the recent massive tax and spending packages in the United States will likely do much more to raise inflation than to boost investment.

There are plenty of reasons to object to recent US fiscal policy, even if lowering the corporate-tax rate made sense (albeit not by the amount enacted). Above all, we live in an era of rising inequality and falling income shares for labor relative to capital. Governments need to do more, not less, to redistribute income and wealth.

It is hard to know what US President Donald Trump is thinking when he boasts that his policies will deliver up to 6% growth (unless he is talking about prices, not output!). But if inflationary pressures do indeed materialize, current growth might last significantly longer than forecasters and markets believe.

In any case, the focus of economists’ pessimism is long-term growth. Their stance is underpinned by the belief that advanced economies cannot hope to repeat the dynamism that the US enjoyed from 1995-2005 (and other advanced economies a bit later), much less the salad days of the 1950s and 1960s.

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Unions representing federal scientists protest ‘partisan interference’

May 19, 2015

Unions representing federal scientists protest ‘partisan interference’

Representatives from Canada’s major public sector unions, including thePublic Service Alliance of Canada, the Canadian Association of Professional Employees and the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada will protest “the muzzling of Canada’s public scientists and partisan interference in the development of public science” by holding “mobilization and information activities” at Tunney’s Pasture.

According to the advisory, similar events slated to take place in Montreal, Quebec City and Vancouver.

Back on the Hill, the Commons Chamber may be shuttered for the week-long Victoria Day constituency break, but Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz and International Trade Minister Ed Fast are still slated to join representatives from Canada’s beef and pork sectors in the House Foyer later this morning to take questions on the latest rejection of US meat labelling requirements by the World Trade Organization.

In Toronto, meanwhile, New Democrat Leader Tom Mulcair, who will join the “McGill Four” MPs — Charmaine Borg, Matthew Dubé, Mylène Freeman and Laurin Liu — for a panel discussion after speaking to theMcGill Alumni Association.

Also in Toronto today: Finance Minister Joe Oliver, who will be the keynote speaker at the 2015 PCMA Private Capital Markets Conference, and Transport Minister Lisa Raitt, who will do the honours on behalf ofMinister of State for Sport Bal Gosal at the SEEDS Orientation Event

 

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